Stats in this post do not reflect yesterday’s doubleheader, as it was written before the games took place.
The hottest topic among Mets fans these days is what should happen when Andres Torres returns from the DL, and the general consensus is that Captain Kirk should keep the job when Torres comes back.
Andres Torres provides a couple of things:
- Great center field defense, which is a premium. Not saying that Captain Kirk doesn’t defend well, but I’ll take the sure thing with Torres.
- Speed, which although tends to be over-valued, our line-up is sorely missing.
- A bat in this line-up who isn’t a lefty.
I’ll probably get blasted for saying this, but Torres really isn’t a bad player. His bat is lacking, but among center fielders who played at least 2000 innings from 2000-2012, his UZR/150 is sixth, at 12.6. Scouts mostly agree that he is a good defensive center fielder, and he definitely passes the eye test.
The speed is certainly wouldn’t be the only reason, but it is a contributing factor here, as that is an element that we see can affect pitchers greatly (cough Pelfrey cough), and being able to steal a base can’t be a bad thing. The Mets are dead last in baseball this year with only three stolen bases, so Torres would certainly contribute to improving that.
The third point is a major one, as the Mets are batting just .228 vs lefties this year (as opposed to .270 vs righties). Captain Kirk’s biggest flaw is that he can’t hit lefties, and Torres would help that as he is a switch hitter, batting .246 vs lefties. Although this isn’t good, it is better than the Mets team average versus lefties, so it would be an improvement (in comparison Kirk is 1/9 with a walk vs lefties this season, SSS, I know).
Now a few things that Captain Kirk brings to the table:
- More power, and probably a better all around hitter.
- He passes the defensive eye test.
- He’s the “future”
What Kirk brings to the table that Torres does not is more patience at the plate, and more pop. Captain Kirk slugged .464 in the minors, and is doing nothing to dispell the notion that he can hit for power so far for the Mets. Torres’ career slugging percentage stands at just .403, slightly above league average. The one knock on him right now is the 26.7% K rate, and the .423 BABIP, which is certain to regress.
We may not have a big enough sample to judge Kirk in a statistical regard on defense, but he passes the eye test. Obviously this is an incomplete grade as we just don’t have enough data.
The last argument is that the Mets aren’t trying to win now, so they should play Kirk because he is the future. This is more of a matter of what the Front Office wants to do, and not concrete evidence. My personal opinion is that he should certainly be playing at least against righties, and if the team falls out of contention, lefties as well.
So in conclusion, they both have their strengths and weaknesses, and Captain Kirk is definitely the fan favorite.
I propose a lefty/righty platoon of Torres and Kirk, with one of them sliding over late in close games as a defensive replacement for Duda. What do you guys think?
72 comments
TRS86
4/24/2012-6:17am at 6:17 am (UTC -4)
You can’t get better by platooning. Let Torres be a traditional 4Th Of and give all 3 frequent breaks pending splits. Let him hit for Bay vs tough RH and split some time hitting for Duda or Kirk vs tough LH.
Stickguy
4/24/2012-7:30am at 7:30 am (UTC -4)
4th OF. And I am not going to go overboard with Torres being an elite CF that is going to do more out there than Kirk at this point. Especially with recurring bad wheels problems!
go with a rotation with kirk and bay, trying to mix and match.
and I wlil disagree that they should not be trying to win this year. at this point,m hell yeah they should be.
srt
4/24/2012-7:34am at 7:34 am (UTC -4)
This would all depend on what type of season the FO thinks the Mets are going to have.
- Do they really believe we have a shot to compete for post season?
- Is it more about winning games or will the priority be more on getting a look at some of these young players?
IMO right now this is a .500 club. In fact I believe I predicted they’d win < 80 games, unless everything broke right.
Right now, they seem to be committed to playing Duda in RF and Murph at 2nd. In that case, might as well play Kirk in CF as well. This is probably the perfect type season to get a long look at what he can do there – whether it's to determine if he'll be the CF of the immediate future or whether they might be showcasing him for a potential trade.
Have to agree with TRS here. For now, push Torres back to the 4th OF and leave Kirk in CF.
Paul
4/24/2012-7:38am at 7:38 am (UTC -4)
The only problem with platooning Kirk Nieuwenhuis at this point in his career is that he won’t get any better at hitting lefties if he doesn’t face them. He should be the every day centerfielder, whether in New York or Buffalo.
vt
4/24/2012-7:52am at 7:52 am (UTC -4)
Agree with Paul…Platooning Kirk means that he’ll not get a chance to learn to hit lefties.
Kirk is one of the few good offensive stories on this team right now. He’s got a .333 batting average with a .928 OPS. That would get a rookie “Rookie of the Year” honors in many seasons.
What would be the advantage in sending him back to AAA? He’s poised and productive at the MLB level. He’s got over 1500 minor league at bats; after playing 3 seasons of college baseball; and he turns 25 during this season. We aren’t talking about a 20 year old; he’s paid his dues already.
Torres belongs as a solid 4th OFer, sharing time with all 3 of the starters; both Bay/Duda are currently showing more flaws than Kirk. Bay can’t hit RHP; Duda can’t hit LHP and Torres is a switch hitter.
vt
4/24/2012-7:57am at 7:57 am (UTC -4)
And by the way.
I don’t always agree with some of Terry’s decisions; but I like the way that he’s been flip-flopping Tejada/Kirk based on RHP/LHP splits. He’s taking advantage of Kirk’s ability to hit RHP by batting him leadoff vs RHP; and taking advantage of Tejada’s ability to hit LHP by batting him leadoff vs LHP; with whoever has the weakness against the “split” batting 7th or 8th.
trs86
4/24/2012-8:13am at 8:13 am (UTC -4)
It’s also about the fact that we have so many damn LH hitters. Vs a LH you need to get one of the LH out of the way. It’s a tricky situation with how the team is balanced right now and with Duda and Ike not hitting.
trs86
4/24/2012-8:07am at 8:07 am (UTC -4)
Torres could easily get 4-5 games a week in a rotation in the OF.
Here’s what I would do if Torres was active right now. (Obviously we know that is not the case)
vs. Johnson: Torres for Bay
vs. Buherle: Torres plays in RF, Duda/Turner plays 1B. We still need to get Duda some time at 1B too and Ike needs time off. What happens if Ike has to go down to AAA? Me? Duda moves back to 1B.
vs. Nalasco: Torres plays for Kirk. Got to keep the kid healthy too. He plays an all out style that will need some breaks.
vs. Rockies RH: Torres sits.
So Torres in this system would be playing about 4/5 games a week. While keeping everyone fresh and evening out the splits at the same time.
gategem
4/24/2012-8:29am at 8:29 am (UTC -4)
Based upon what I saw of Duda playing 1st base last year I don’t want him near that base. Even RF is too close. Duda lacks quickness and agility. On more than one occasion he tripped over his own feet trying to field and move at the same time. You are also putting enormous pressure on the other infielders in that they have to make perfect throws to 1st. Leave him in the OF or better yet get the DH in the NL and Duda can just hit.
BTW Murph at 2nd and Duda at 1st and if I’m a pitcher on the Mets I immediately demand a trade.
trs86
4/24/2012-8:34am at 8:34 am (UTC -4)
I get what you are saying. It’s just I think if Ike goes down to AAA it’s likely what you see unless they think Vspin is ready and they move Murphy but that’s backwards logic IMO.
Stick
4/24/2012-9:05am at 9:05 am (UTC -4)
or they call up someone that can play 1B. Lutz?
but murphy sliding over with Valdespin at 2B would certainly be an option.
trs86
4/24/2012-9:14am at 9:14 am (UTC -4)
I understand it but I just hate moving Murphy. To me he’s got to be given EVERY chance to stick at 2B long term because that’s the only spot they have for him. Unless Ike really tanks.
Stick
4/24/2012-9:20am at 9:20 am (UTC -4)
lot’s of moving parts here of course. We were having the debate in the dugout last night about Ike (how long can this continue until he gets sent down). I said by 6/1, others (Mr. NJ) said ASB to never happen.
so by the time it does come to pass, the Mets could be dead and buried, so might as well just stick a guy like Lutz out there. Or another 2B (Havens!) could be lighting things up and earning a shot there, pushing Murphy out. Or they could still be in the WC hunt, and needing to put the best team on the field, not worrying about development.
oleosmirf
4/24/2012-8:10am at 8:10 am (UTC -4)
If they want to sit Kirk against tough lefties or move him to the corner, then fine, but he needs to stay in the lineup.
There is no way you can send him down or put him on the bench in favor of Bay or Torres…
trs86
4/24/2012-8:16am at 8:16 am (UTC -4)
To me I see no reason to move him around. Why add more pressure on the kid by jerking him around from position to position? Let Torres be the one that does that. You are not gaining or losing that much by having Torres in CF and Kirk in LF/RF as opposed to Kirk in CF and Torres in LF/RF. I agree sit him some against the toughest lefties just for a break now and then.
oleosmirf
4/24/2012-8:34am at 8:34 am (UTC -4)
I just looked at the numbers and i never realized he only played CF and RF, but still he is a professional baseball player.
I think it’s silly to believe that moving him to RF for some games is going to have a negative effect on him. It’s not like Duda who is playing out of position here.
Next season will likely be Duda-Valdespin-Kirk anyway…
SpencerRealDirtyMets
4/24/2012-8:37am at 8:37 am (UTC -4)
I envision the team signing a CF, I hope for BJ Upton. The guy can play CF pretty well.
trs86
4/24/2012-8:44am at 8:44 am (UTC -4)
It would be nice but I don’t see that cash coming until Bay is off the books or unless you want to choose Upton over Wright.
SpencerRealDirtyMets
4/24/2012-9:04am at 9:04 am (UTC -4)
I don’t think Upton will be that expensive, and the payroll will most certainly start going back up soon. He’s a player they have had reported interest in and he profiles what the FO has been looking for in a CF.
trs86
4/24/2012-9:12am at 9:12 am (UTC -4)
If you think Upton will not be that expensive just wait and see. I expect something along 10-12M a year for 4 or 5 years. CF are a premium and they get paid if they can produce.
That being said if they think Kirk can play CF they are not going to sign one. Also, what makes you think payroll will be going up enough to support another 10M+ contract?
Stick
4/24/2012-9:15am at 9:15 am (UTC -4)
by the end of the year, they will also (hopefully!) have a clearer idea if any of the other MiL guys might look like keepers, and if they can handle CF. Den Dekker (4th OF IMO due to bat), Puello, Lagares. Any more?
and for the money, depends when guys actually come off the books (bay and Santana), so there may be a delay until 2014 or they will have to suck it over for an overlap year in 2013 (contract wise).
srt
4/24/2012-8:41am at 8:41 am (UTC -4)
I’m not convinced Valdespin’s bat will ever translate to the major leagues. Kid has no patience at the plate yet.
Stick
4/24/2012-9:07am at 9:07 am (UTC -4)
I agree. said this in the dugout too after his first AB. Pretty much confirmed in the ultimate SSS what his rep was (impatient hacker).
trs86
4/24/2012-8:42am at 8:42 am (UTC -4)
I am not saying he CAN’T. I am saying it isn’t needed. Why move him when you can just move Torres?
vt
4/24/2012-8:59am at 8:59 am (UTC -4)
Kirk is still getting his feet wet at the MLB level (and for the most part has only played CF in the minors).
Torres is in his mid 30′s, and has plenty of experience at the corner OF posiitons (particularly in 2009-2010). 142 MLB games played at a corner, 203 minor league games played at a corner.
IMO, if Kirk/Torres play in the outfield together at the same time, it would make more sense to keep Kirk in CF and let the veteran Torres move to the corners.
Stick
4/24/2012-9:09am at 9:09 am (UTC -4)
I agree with you and TRS that Torres should be the guy moving around. especially I have been saying since they picked him up that he was a 4th OF, and that is what they do!
Kirk should just play. He pretty much did what he could in the minors, so let him loose.
gategem
4/24/2012-8:20am at 8:20 am (UTC -4)
There is one major advantage in keeping the kids in the minors until they are absolutely ready. That is to develop a culture of winning, of making the correct decisions on the field on both defense and on offense and a complete commitment to their teammates, to themselves and most of all to the Mets organization. A Mets culture of good, crisp, winning baseball has to be developed and the only place it can start is in the minors. That was the way the Dodgers used to approach baseball and I think it will still work.
trs86
4/24/2012-8:21am at 8:21 am (UTC -4)
OK but what determines when a player is absolutely ready? Kirk had to be close as was Ike and Duda, their struggles aside.
gategem
4/24/2012-8:32am at 8:32 am (UTC -4)
The old Dodgers scouts, coaches and front office seem to know when to bring a youngster up. Almost the way you as a coach can tell when a kid is ready to make a major contribution that someone like myself would be oblivious too.
trs86
4/24/2012-8:43am at 8:43 am (UTC -4)
Right but what I am saying is that we don’t know that Ike, Kirk and Duda weren’t ready.
gategem
4/24/2012-8:56am at 8:56 am (UTC -4)
But of those three only Ike really knows how to play the game with a commitment to excellence and that’s because he comes from a baseball family. The organization under Omar and company didn’t seem to instill these players with the qualities we look for that are not solely talent based. Sandy seems to be trying to bring that to the team but the majors is a tough place to learn it, especially when the veterans on the team don’t seem to have been trained in that philosophy. Perhaps I’m being old school here but if you put out a team that doesn’t beat itself you will win a lot of games.
BTW You see it in pro-basketball were these kids are coming out very early and never really learned how to play the game. It’s become everyone get out of my way it’s just me and G-d and I don’t believe he can slam dunk.
trs86
4/24/2012-9:09am at 9:09 am (UTC -4)
I don’t see that at all with Kirk. The kid is a balls to the wall I will do anything to win type of player just like Murphy. Duda it’s a little early to tell yet.
gategem
4/24/2012-11:09am at 11:09 am (UTC -4)
I guess I’m not making myself clear. You can be balls to the walls and run around like a chicken with your head cut off. When the Dodgers brought a youngster up he already knew how to play the game. Playing hard was a given because of the reserve clause and veritable plethora of talent in the minors. The infielders knew what position to take on plays from the outfield, the outfields knew what base to throw too, they knew how to run the bases, etc. Some of these players today don’t even know what coach to look to on given plays. Murphy at times seems lost on the bases. Some of these players play hard but have no idea of what they’re doing in some situations. Those things used to be taught and mastered at the minor league level.
Stick
4/24/2012-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
I don’t think guys spend as long in the minors now either, do they?
kingman 26
4/24/2012-9:18am at 9:18 am (UTC -4)
Saying Torres is “great” defensively may be a stretch. And he hits .246 against lefties? That’s not a number you decide these things based on. And let’s not forget the very weak OBP.
Torres is Pagan. One good year in a career of mediocrity.
Kirk should probably play every dy.
And this could work itself out, as if Ike doesn’t do something soon, he is going to be sent to AAA, then Duda can play first and Torres and Kirk can play every day.
Ike’s hitting .136 with a .190 OBP. One way or another, this will not continue much longer.
trs86
4/24/2012-9:26am at 9:26 am (UTC -4)
Agreed on that. That being said Lutz is mashing in AAA and looks MLB ready. They have got to decide what to do with him so if I were them I would have him playing 1B from now until when Torres is ready and maybe make two moves when that happens. If Ike is still struggling you bring up Torres and Lutz for Ike and Baxter.
Stick
4/24/2012-9:29am at 9:29 am (UTC -4)
torres for baxter I think is a given.
Lutz scares me though, in that I have no confidence he can play a ML quality 1B, and last thing they need is another bad glove on that side of the field.
how about stick him in LF for a week to see if he can handle that, then he can come up to replace Bay?
More likely though, he gets stuck having a huge year in AAA, then something happens in the off season with him (or, G-F, in front of him!)
or, he could be part of a trade.
trs86
4/24/2012-9:36am at 9:36 am (UTC -4)
I see no reason that he can’t play 1B as well as Murphy, Duda or Turner.
Stick
4/24/2012-9:48am at 9:48 am (UTC -4)
well, not really setting the bar too high. But don’t discount the importance of a slick fielding 1B. he covers for a lot of mistakes by the rest of the IF.
trs86
4/24/2012-10:03am at 10:03 am (UTC -4)
Oh I am not but if you are sending Ike down then you don’t have one of those slick fielding 1B anyway. Might as well see what Lutz can do. If Ike does bomb then maybe you can get by for a year next year with Lutz and either Duda or Ike in a platoon even.
gategem
4/24/2012-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
If the Mets do bring up Lutz I will bemoan the fact that they no longer have Putz. But we can still have Putz pitching to Lutz and that would be entertaining.
srt
4/24/2012-9:35am at 9:35 am (UTC -4)
You’re advocating sending Ike down for Lutz?
Stick
4/24/2012-9:48am at 9:48 am (UTC -4)
Yes, if Ike keeps going like this and needs a stint in the minors to try and work out of the funk.
SpencerRealDirtyMets
4/24/2012-10:51am at 10:51 am (UTC -4)
That would be the worst thing for Ike’s psyque right now, we don’t wanna do to Ike what those morons in San Francisco are doing with Belt.
Stick
4/24/2012-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
you can’t keep a guy in the lineup forever that is killing the team. Unless you want to formally announce that you are using the season as a glorified ST/instructional league.
and guys have to be bale to handle the reality of MLB. Perform, or someone else will.
if he wants to mope and whine instead of taking advantge and getting his act together, he wasn’t going to have much of a future anyway!
trs86
4/24/2012-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
Would it Spencer or would it give him a chance to just breathe a little?
SpencerRealDirtyMets
4/24/2012-11:38am at 11:38 am (UTC -4)
If we send him down that means we are acknowledging there is a long term problem that Ike needs to fix. Which A.) I still don’t think is true, it’s still April, and B.) Would be a sign to him that he needs to change his approach at the plate, which would be a huge hit to his condfidence. The approach is fine, it’s just a matter of Ike making better contact, which some work with Hudge will fix.
NJstuckinTX
4/24/2012-11:38am at 11:38 am (UTC -4)
Ike needs to grow a pair if this is going to crush his psyche.
trs86
4/24/2012-12:04pm at 12:04 pm (UTC -4)
Actually based on what Keith has said Ike’s approach and stance are a little off right now and the coaches have been trying to work with him on it.
I am not sure what damages his mental state more. Hitting below .200 on the season or sending him down… LOL.
Stick
4/24/2012-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
was gonna make the same point. If looking at the scoreboard and seeing .139 or so next to your name doesn’t crush your spirit, nothing will.
I am all for developing players, but this is still a team game, and winning games has to be considered too.
trs86
4/24/2012-12:32pm at 12:32 pm (UTC -4)
Well you also have to show Ike that .150 is not going to cut it and while we still have high hopes for you this isn’t going to work until you fix your swing/approach.
SpencerRealDirtyMets
4/24/2012-5:26pm at 5:26 pm (UTC -4)
But we don’t want Ike constantly looking over his shoulder afraid he’s gonna get sent down. We shouldn’t be making decisions on 16 games no matter how bad they are.
trs86
4/24/2012-9:55am at 9:55 am (UTC -4)
I think so if Ike is still struggling when Torres is ready.
Stick
4/24/2012-9:26am at 9:26 am (UTC -4)
still only 10% of the season down, but for a middle of the order hitter to have an OBP that doesn’t even sniff Mendoza’s butt is freaky. heck, his slugging is only .288
I know about needing time, it’s early, etc. but at some point a guy is so overwhelmingly messed up bad that you have to do something with him. And whatever implications there are to sending him down for a tune up, there are just as many to keeping a guy up and failing this bad.
I agree that right now, Kirk needs to play everyday. And this is one of those rare cases where you aren’t deciding between “win now” and “build for the future”. He seems to be the best option for both.
that, and Torres is a prototypical 4th OF
SpencerRealDirtyMets
4/24/2012-10:48am at 10:48 am (UTC -4)
The metrics support that since 2000 he has been among the best CFs in baseball. I think Pagan is noticeably better offensively, but not anywhere near him defensively. It’s a wash as far as I see it.
kingman 26
4/24/2012-1:34pm at 1:34 pm (UTC -4)
He’s 34 and has played one full MLB season, and that one was 139 games.
Not sure how relevant any of this is for a 34-year-old who’s been in the minors or on the bench or injured just about his whole career.
Where is he now? Injured. Again.
trs86
4/24/2012-2:14pm at 2:14 pm (UTC -4)
True, at least we have more to go on than just metrics about his fielding as most in San Fran say that he was a great fielder as well so the metrics and eye test are passed. That still does not mean that his defense makes up for his offense but it also doesn’t mean he is useless. Give him some time as the 4th OF, I got no problem with that.
SpencerRealDirtyMets
4/24/2012-5:28pm at 5:28 pm (UTC -4)
Among players with 2000 innings in CF since 2000, Torres is 6th in UZR/150, and some of those guys are out of baseball at this point. He is a great CF.
Prismo
4/24/2012-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
In 2011 the 30 CFers with the most plate appearances averaged an OPS of .741.
I figure that should be the benchmark for Kirk. If he can hit near that figure and continue to play above average defense (especially considering our terrible defense in LF and RF) he’s a keeper.
trs86
4/24/2012-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed, as would Pagan have been if he wasn’t mentally brain dead.
wanny
4/24/2012-2:26pm at 2:26 pm (UTC -4)
Torres’ base stealing ability isn’t enough to justify sitting a better hitter. First of all, we’re not talking about Juan Pierre, Jose Reyes or Tim Raines on the base paths. His 20 or so stolen bases will be mostly useless over the course of a season.
Further, he’s had one good major league season. He’s only marginally more “proven” than a rookie at this point.
trs86
4/24/2012-2:39pm at 2:39 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed.
SpencerRealDirtyMets
4/24/2012-5:32pm at 5:32 pm (UTC -4)
He had a 7.8 WAR in that one “good” season, so it was pretty great. It’s more data than we have on Kirk at this point, and Torres is an average overall CF at worst.
wanny
4/24/2012-2:32pm at 2:32 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t expect Lutz to play all that much while he is here. Maybe he subs for Ike against a tough lefty here or there.
trs86
4/24/2012-2:40pm at 2:40 pm (UTC -4)
While that is most likely true, if so I think it’s a terrible idea. Bring up someone like Satin if you are just going to bench them. All you are doing is taking a hot bat and most likely cooling it off.
Stickguy
4/24/2012-3:27pm at 3:27 pm (UTC -4)
probably here for 3 days, max, until Torres is ready to come off the DL
SpencerRealDirtyMets
4/24/2012-5:30pm at 5:30 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe it’s him vs Vspin until Torres is back? We already have a MI backup on the roster, but lack a corner guy who bats righty.
NJstuckinTX
4/24/2012-3:08pm at 3:08 pm (UTC -4)
Bay to the DL with non-displaced fractured Rib.
BayB Broke Ribs…
saltygary
4/24/2012-4:15pm at 4:15 pm (UTC -4)
Pelf is now on the DL:
Per Rubin: Sandy Alderson said a ligament tear has not been ruled out.
saltygary
4/24/2012-4:18pm at 4:18 pm (UTC -4)
WTF the 2 guys I wanted off the team are now off and its a bad thing!
NJstuckinTX
4/24/2012-4:18pm at 4:18 pm (UTC -4)
So much for that 7-3 start…
Get out the buckets… Time to start baling!
SpencerRealDirtyMets
4/24/2012-5:29pm at 5:29 pm (UTC -4)
Btw this is a moot point for now as Kirk will be playing left when Torres comes back, so we won’t know until Bay recovers.