After being considered a prime breakout candidate by many before the season, Ike Davis has certainly been a bit of a disappointment to Mets fans so far this year. The question is, what is wrong with Ike?
Looking at what he has done so far this year, the first two things that stuck out to me were his ground-ball and fly-ball rates, both way off his career norms. The ground-ball rate is at 56.1% (as opposed to a 44.4% career rate), and the fly-ball is sitting at 27.3% (against a 39% career average). This is most likely why Ike’s BABIP is so low.
Looking deeper into Ike’s performance this year, one can see that he is getting an exorbitant amount of curve-balls, at 19.4% (12.9% for his career). This is the highest percentage of anyone in the league, which is very alarming. Accordingly, the amount of fastballs he has seen this year has gone from 50.5% over his career, down to 44.4%.
The higher amount of curve-balls (and that small sample-size thing, but for sake of argument we’ll drop that for now) is what is most likely leading to his 16.7% infield fly-ball rate, doubled from his career norm. The one good thing here for Ike is that his HR/FB rate is right around his career norm, at 16.7% (13.4% career).
The key for Ike is going to be learning how to make better contact with the curve-ball, as that .157 average against that pitch is alarming. Sliders are nearly as bad, as he is hitting just .211 on those, and if he wants to see more fastballs and less breaking pitches, both of these will have to improve dramatically.
Another byproduct of the amount of curve-balls he has seen is that 46% of his hits this season have gone to the right side (according to ESPN spray charts). When Ike is on, he is hitting to all fields; He bats .317 in his career when hitting to the ball to left or center field.
So what do you guys think, send him down? Keep him up? TRAYED TEH IKE?