OK so I admit there is way to much good going on for the Mets right now, followed by the concern for Ruben to really be wasting my time on this BUT I can’t help but let my mind wander on this Monday morning. As most know I am a David Wright fan but ultimately a Mets fan above all. After reading Ken Rosenthal’s piece (I know I should be quartered and shot right now) I got to thinking about the premise. Would the Mets be better if A or B? Obviously there are actually C-ZZZ still left to consider. Wright has MVP year, Wright breaks neck, the Mets can’t get someone to sign, the value of Wright is too low, Wright does not want to come back… the list goes on and on.
For the sake of this post though, lets consider just 2 scenarios.
A) The Mets extend Wright either this summer or this fall. The extension most likely from what I am reading would either match or exceed the one given to Zimmerman. Mostly because Wright is a more marketable player, face of the franchise, better hitter over the course of his career, and starting at a higher salary from the beginning. So I would think somewhere between 5/90 and 6/105 would be the range. I could be way off. Obviously doing this would only up the Met current salary by a few million and would only be a 2M increase over the option year that Wright will have. The good of this deal is that you have locked up the face of the franchise and have guaranteed a relatively productive 3B for at least half of that time I would assume baring injuries. The bad of course is that you have also locked up a guy for ages 30-35/36. As I mentioned last week those guys are not what they used to be.
B) Pick up Wright’s option and trade him for top prospects concentrating on position players. Then using the 18M set aside for Wright blow an ace out of the water with a contract offer. Lets assume that if the Mets offered Cole Hamels a 7/140M contract he would take it. I have no idea if he would or not. His heart has been said to be on the West coast and I assume at this point he will be a Dodger next season. But, that being said lets play along with the premise. SRT and Stick you guys can substitute a different name in there if you want. Otherwise this story will be certainly shot all to hell. Good news, the Mets starting rotation even next year would be as follows. Hamels, Johan, Dickey, Niese, Gee/kid with hopefully Harvey, Familia or Wheeler ready to push their way in. Hamels would be the only SP locked up long-term. Would a first 4 like that be better than any top 4 in the NL? Lets remember that it would most likely pass the Phillies as they would be minus Hamels. Bad news, the offense is already sputtering a little as is. Minus Wright it would most likely be just plain void.
Lets look a little deeper at the lineup as a result of B. We already discussed the rotation and a fine one it would be. Now lets take a look at the lineup.
1B: Most likely still Davis. I could see a situation where the Mets are forced to choose between Duda and Davis if neither actually show they are taking the next step.
2B: Havens, Stick and all of us will most likely get our wish starting either later this season or in 2013. Assuming health which for Havens is a big assumption.
SS: Tejada, reminding me of what we should be talking about today instead of this half brained idea.
3B: Daniel Murphy with maybe Lutz and Flores knocking? The Mets actually do have options if Wright leaves, I am not saying they are good options but options none the less. 1B and 3B might be the deepest positions we have.
LF: Good god we still have Jason Bay. Lets assume if nothing else Bay becomes a platoon guy and only faces LHP. I would imagine that would allow the Mets to move Duda to LF.
CF: I am not sure on this one but I think the Mets have the resources to at least be passable here. Either Kirk, Den Dekker or Torres will be able to man the spot.
RF: For now I am going to say Captain Kirk with Duda playing LF.
C: Thole for lack of better options and he is having a decent season with the bat and I see improvements in his catching.
That’s not much offense but is it enough to win some games with that pitching staff? Are they better during that 3-5 year window with A or B? Have fun with this one.
57 comments
srt
5/7/2012-9:13am at 9:13 am (UTC -4)
I’ll take option A please. Just re-sign him. He’s solid, we know what we have and I don’t really think Lutz is a viable replacement. Flores might be but he’s not going to be ready for next year.
Could move Murph to 3rd but in a SSS, Havens is struggling at the plate right now down there.
Picking up Wright’s option at end of season and trading for prospects is an option but you never know what you’re getting with prospects. Always taking a chance there.
TRS86
5/7/2012-9:18am at 9:18 am (UTC -4)
I agree it is risky, what if that name was Haren instead of Hamels though? Would that change your mind any?
As for Murphy and Havens, I expect Havens to hit but we do have V-Spin as well.
Stick
5/7/2012-9:26am at 9:26 am (UTC -4)
I think Havens will certainly hit, just of course the question is can his muscles hold together for a full season.
But, one thing I do not want to see is Murphy at 3B. at 2B a slap/singles hitter can play, but not at 3B. Certainly when he is going to be a liability in the field too.
If Wright goes in your plan, ship Murphy out too, and figure out something else for 3B.
TRS86
5/7/2012-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
I am not so sure the 2B/3B thing works anymore. 2B has some hitters now days and 3B not so much…
In fact there isn’t much difference anymore.
Murphy would rank
2B: 3rd in BA, 4th in OBP, 5th in SLG, 5th in OPS.
at
3B: 3rd in BA, 5th in OBP, 7th in SLG, 6th in OPS.
Factor in that he most likely would not be as bad at 3B defensively as 2B then you get an acceptable 3B.
Stick
5/7/2012-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
I don’t have any faith that he will be more than a barely adequate hacker over at 3B. Pretty much what he is at 2B, without having to worry about the DP work around the bag!
TRS86
5/7/2012-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
He most likely would not be AS level defense no matter what. Just saying that his offense plays over there better than you think and his defense would have to be better than at 2B.
srt
5/7/2012-9:51am at 9:51 am (UTC -4)
Something went over my head here b/c I’m not sure where Hamels or Haren come into this conversation.
As far as Valdespin……I’m not getting a warm and fuzzy about this kid. Could be just me, maybe he just needs more time – but I don’t think he’s ready for a starting position in the MLs.
Agree with Stick on Murphy at 3rd as well. To me, that’s a definite downgrade from Wright, despite the fact that he’s younger.
srt
5/7/2012-9:54am at 9:54 am (UTC -4)
Sorry….I see the Hamels connection here.
If Hamels hits FA, I don’t see anyway the Mets get in on that. Although I will admit on talent alone, he sure would look good in this rotation. Can’t say I care to see him in a Met uniform though.
I’d pass on Haren.
Stick
5/7/2012-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
are there any more SPs that would qualify as Ace, near ace, or even worth a major contract? Or will you end up with a CJ Wilson for Santana money?
and Hamels is going to cause a feeding frenzy. The Yankees will be bidding hard, the LA teams will be in on this, and the Phils are going to put up a fight.
And if he can keep pitching like this, I am more than happy to see him in a Met uniform (as strange as it is going to look!)
TRS86
5/7/2012-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I think there are a few others but some of them have options. None that will command what Hamels will though.
Stick
5/7/2012-9:24am at 9:24 am (UTC -4)
I would say #1 is more plausible. But it would likely have to be 5 years total (including the option year) to make it palitable. Even then, you could be deep into his decline phase.
I really don’t see them trading him for prospects, and for 1 year not sure the haul will be that high. But I still don’t think they will be going down that path.
as to the ace idea, one problem is your $ are probably off. $20mill/per might get you in the front door, but you ain’t getting into the VIP lounge with that. Assuming Hamels does not go down injured, and keeps up his current pace, more likely you are going to have to offer up at least $25m/per, and I don’t see the Mets do that.
So, other than Hamels (if he even hits the market), are there any other “aces” about to hit FA?
for the sake of the game, and they can get one for 20, how about a radical mix of 1 & 2? Extend Wright, with a lower 2013 salary (similar to what Reyes did), and get the ace anyway. That would be a 1 year hit to the budget, but not too horrible.
by getting Wright lower, and maybe doing the same with the “ace”, it can fit. none of they younger guys are in line for a huge Arb raise yet. Pelf will be coming off the books. And it will be the last year of Bay and Santana (I am assuming neither one will be traded, certainly not for any measurable relief).
so, by 2014, you are again left with 2 guys making a lot of money, and 23 that aren’t (relatively speaking). So instead of Bay and Santana making $40 combined, it would be Wright and “ace” getting it.
TRS86
5/7/2012-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
Certainly an interesting idea. The numbers for Hamels I was pulling off of MLBTR.
“Cole Hamels is expected to earn, in the neighborhood of $20MM per season.”
Prismo
5/7/2012-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
The Phillies may very well let Hamels hit the market.
For those who don’t know, aside from the Mets (which is kind of a unique story), the Phillies had the worst operating income in baseball last season. They lost nearly $12MM….and this year’s payroll is $7MM higher! I don’t see how they can spend $20 million on their 3rd starter and fill the other holes the team has at the same time.
Stick
5/7/2012-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
Not sure of the timing, but their broadcast contracts come up for renewal soon, and they should be in line for a major increase in cashflow from that.
But, unless they can keep ratcheting up ticket prices, they pretty much have maximized revenues. They are screwed if the team hits a bad stretch, and the attendance/extra stuff tails off.
My guess, if they sign hamels, that is it. Vicky walks (may anyway, not that they have a replacement) for sure. Palanco may be up, so that would be another low budget guy.
If they sign him, the team would have something like $150 mill tied up just in Halladay, Lee, Hamels, kendrick (that’s like $80mill rotation for 4 guys) + Papelbon, Rollins, Utley and Howard.
Plus you got Pence (not 100% sure he is signed past 2012), Ruiz, and whoever else plays the field on top of that.
so yeah, they are locked in to a large payroll with or without him.
NJstuckinTX
5/7/2012-9:41am at 9:41 am (UTC -4)
Other than the fact I’d become a Mariner fan if Hamels was a Met… Yuck. But Hamels aside, I know the saying of you can always use more pitching, but they need some bats. They have a lot of young guns in the pitchers they have coming up.
My vote would be for resigning Wright. The system has some nice pitching coming up, and not much positional depth. I really don’t see Murph as a 3B, especially with his lack of power. I’d like to see him traded, with Havens at 2B and Wright at 3B. With Wright gone, there would be no one in the lineup that combines power with Average. Yeah, Ike can hit them 900 feet, but batting .245 with the occasional 900 footer isn’t ideal. Add to that they left-handed-ness of the lineup…
Now, if it was trade Wright and sign Braun… Well, you have my blessing to trade Wright.
TRS86
5/7/2012-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
Cheater, cheater. Yes I mean both you and Braun…. LOL.
NJstuckinTX
5/7/2012-9:50am at 9:50 am (UTC -4)
If loving Braun is wrong, I don’t want to be (W)right…
TRS86
5/7/2012-9:43am at 9:43 am (UTC -4)
Thinking about it, would Wright and or Sandy go for the deal the Marlins gave Jose? Back loaded like hell? That would allow for Bay and Johan to clear. You may be on to something Stick.
Prismo
5/7/2012-9:50am at 9:50 am (UTC -4)
Ugh please no.
Financial geeks will tell you the backloading makes the contract worth the least in terms of present value, but there’s so much more to discuss.
The biggest thing for me is that right now the team’s payroll is low. Lower than it should be for this market. I would much rather take a big chunk out of payroll while the team is rebuilding and payroll is low, than be handicapped a backloaded contract when we’re contenders and want to spend on free agents to solidify the team.
Somehow I think the Wilpons would still prefer to backload though. I just think the team could regret it during the 2nd half of the contract.
TRS86
5/7/2012-10:02am at 10:02 am (UTC -4)
They certainly could but you do have the option of Johan and Bay coming off so there certainly would be money to spend even at keeping the payroll reasonable.
Maybe not as extreme as Jose’s but enough to balance out?
Something like 12M for 3 years and 22M for 3 years? That still frees up 6M a year while you still have those contracts on the book and also a ton of money in 2014.
Prismo
5/7/2012-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
I guess, but I just don’t see the point.
Stuff just seems gimmicky. And something tells me the Wilpons wouldn’t spend an extra $18MM (6 per year) over those first 3 seasons to counteract the backloaded contract.
Prismo
5/7/2012-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
And speaking of $6MM per year saved.
I’ll tell you how much that gets us – next season we’re paying Frank Francisco $6.5MM.
TRS86
5/7/2012-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
True but it’s also the difference in a 14M pitcher and a 20M pitcher.
NJstuckinTX
5/7/2012-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
Pris, fear not. FFrank will be traded.
Stick
5/7/2012-10:26am at 10:26 am (UTC -4)
I wasn’t thinking that extreme.
if you are going 5/90 (18 per), do something like 14 for year 1, then 19 for the last 4.
nothing radical, but just enough to help keep it in check for the 1 year where they have Bay and Santana on the books too.
TRS86
5/7/2012-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
Side note:
I am trying to find out a stat to show how many first pitch strikes the Mets are taking this year. Fangraphs has first pitch strikes but it doesn’t say if they were taken, swinging or even in the zone to start with. Anyone got any help?
Stick
5/7/2012-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
just from watching some games, most of them are taken. I did that with my eyes, not of your %*&&$# new fangled sabergoon stats that are ruining the game.
Except for Valdespin. he swung at everything.
seriously though, some of these guys flat out take what looks like very hittable pitches on the first pitch. Need to start teeing off on those to keep the pitchers honest.
TRS86
5/7/2012-10:33am at 10:33 am (UTC -4)
See that’s where I DON’T want to rely on my eyes. What I am seeing though is Ike is swinging at a lot of first pitches that are either off-speed, breaking or not close. I want to verify these things without looking back at each AB. It’s bound to be out there. People are even more bored than us so…
Stick
5/7/2012-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
Oh, I agree about needing #s to prove it. Was just having some fun with our buddies over at that other place.
Ike? he swings at all kind of crap. And the question is, even when they swing at a 1st pitch, was it even a strike? In his case, not always.
TRS86
5/7/2012-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
Right, that’s my question. How many first pitch strikes is he seeing, how many is he swinging at and how many times is he swinging on first pitches out of the zone or things he can’t hit?
Stick
5/7/2012-10:32am at 10:32 am (UTC -4)
would like to introduce a wrinkle. Since it appears that the FA market in good SP is going to be thin again, they may have to trade.
The team is stockpiling some pretty good looking prospects, and no way will they be able to protect all of them that need to be covered (the downside to hoarding them).
So maybe get creative and trade some MiL depth for an established SP, even if they come with a decent sized contract?
that would at least open up the options a lot. Not sure who, but off top of my head I was thinking about how Garza was available now, and there always seems to be a Ray that is making too much money to keep!
TRS86
5/7/2012-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
That’s possible but do you consider Garza an ace? If not then why bother IMO. The only reason I was considering this is that it would be nice to have an ace to anchor a staff lead by kids.
Stick
5/7/2012-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
see below for my thoughts on that.
Prismo
5/7/2012-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
We don’t need a starter because Harvey and Wheeler will be our #1 and #2 in 2013!!!
Prismo
5/7/2012-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
Harvey, Wheeler, Santana, Dickey, Niese.
Boom, playoffs.
TRS86
5/7/2012-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)
I think that puts us too much in the HOPE category. I still think they need a solid #1 so they don’t have to place pressure on a kid to be that.
Prismo
5/7/2012-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
So given the Mets won’t sign Hamels (and it’s a given), which ace are you targeting in the next couple seasons? And who are you willing to give up? Keep in mind, if it’s a trade teams want at least 1 player back with real ML experience.
TRS86
5/7/2012-11:21am at 11:21 am (UTC -4)
Maybe a guy like Haren is on the market? There are a few guys out there with hefty options that their teams may pass on.
SaltyGary
5/7/2012-12:03pm at 12:03 pm (UTC -4)
There are some notable FA’s
2013
Cole Hamels (29)
Dan Haren (32) – $15.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout
Jake Peavy (31) – $22MM club option with a $4MM buyout
Joe Saunders (32)
Kyle Lohse (34)
Ervin Santana (30) – $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout
James Shields (31) – $9MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
Zack Greinke (28)
2014
Matt Garza (30)
Roy Halladay (37) – $20MM vesting option
Josh Johnson (30)
Jair Jurrjens (28)
Jon Lester (30) – $13MM club option with a $250K buyout
Tim Lincecum (30)
Wandy Rodriguez (35) – $13MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout
Edinson Volquez (30)
Johan Santana (34) – $25MM club option with a $5.5MM buyout
Sanatana coming off the books in 2014 can easily be re-invested into another pitcher.
NJstuckinTX
5/7/2012-12:14pm at 12:14 pm (UTC -4)
Isn’t too much in the FA hitters pool, that’s for sure.
Pence, Kendry Morales, Choo, ADAM JONES!!!!, Ellsbury is about the best on the hitting side.
Add in the 14 mil (17m – 3Mil buyout) not on the books for Bay and Santana’s 20 Mil (25M – 5Mil buyout) they will have money to burn, so to speak.
Stick
5/7/2012-12:24pm at 12:24 pm (UTC -4)
other than hamels, there are some respectable looking arms, but none that I am going big years or big $$ on. Just looking at the ones for this off season, not even worth conceptualizing for after 2013 season!
Grienke could be an interesting case. I never hear his name anymore. Is he still any good? or healthy?
TRS86
5/7/2012-12:56pm at 12:56 pm (UTC -4)
Like I said, some nice names with options attached. It will just depend on the team and situation. Will the Angels pick up Haren AND Ervin? The Rays pick up Shields?
As for Grienke, no thanks at this point. I am not sure his brain could ever handle NY.
Stick
5/7/2012-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
anyway, last thought. Trying to get a real established stud on the open market (FA or trade) is just hugely expensive. So more likely, the scenario is they keep Wright, and trade/sign a 2nd tier guy (I guess someone that would be considered a #2). Then just continue to build around that and hope that one of the “kids” actually hits their ceiling to develop the ace.
SO, might not end up with an Ace soon, but you could end up with a rotation of all above average guys (Dickey, neise, another guy that can put up good #s like Dickey does?)
TRS86
5/7/2012-10:41am at 10:41 am (UTC -4)
Obviously that is more likely but I think in today’s game if you had a Hamels type through FA like the Phillies got it then takes pressure off the kids.
SaltyGary
5/7/2012-11:25am at 11:25 am (UTC -4)
I think most of the money should be focused on offense and the pen next year.
Get the Wright contract done. Lets have this generations Seaver for the Mets. He will be overpaid, but the team needs him as an ambassador for the rest of his life. Also if he sticks around, he should first in most offensive Mets categories.3rd base is also a weaker offensive position lately, so the alternative probably wont be better.
Going for a guy like Hamels is the wrong move for this team right now. Kids are coming up and I imagine it’s a high likely hood that one of them should perform well. Focus on offense and wait until the 2013 off season before making a investment in a FA starter.
Prismo
5/7/2012-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
THE VOICE OF REASON!!!
SaltyGary
5/7/2012-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
Please don’t ever refer to me as that. I try very hard to maintain an image of a out of touch troll.
gategem
5/7/2012-4:04pm at 4:04 pm (UTC -4)
I believe you wrote that you were a project or program manager and in the engineering community they are never considered the voice of reason so by definition your secrets safe. BTW I spent most of my career charging overhead which is a nice way to live. But pure R&D has gone the way of the Dodo bird.
srt
5/7/2012-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
I’ll second that. Sounds like a plan to me.
gategem
5/7/2012-4:07pm at 4:07 pm (UTC -4)
“I love it when a plan comes together.”
jerseymet
5/7/2012-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
Our team is loaded with guys making 500k or less. Some of these guys will not last the others will get pay increases. Alderason may need Wrights salary to pay them. I expect Wright to get renewed this offseason. Then look for Sandy to trade him.
Stick
5/7/2012-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
keep in mind that Pelf and his 6mill or so salary is off the books. That can cover a lot of raises!
jerseymet
5/7/2012-1:46pm at 1:46 pm (UTC -4)
Pelf’s 6million may be enouogh to cover Dickey’s raise. It is odd that no blog is talking about Dickey’s free agency. If I had to chose between keeping Dickey or Wright. R.A. is my man.
srt
5/7/2012-1:49pm at 1:49 pm (UTC -4)
I thought we gave RA a two year contact which goes through 2013.
SaltyGary
5/7/2012-1:57pm at 1:57 pm (UTC -4)
Dickey’s contract is
2011 3.25
2012 4.25
2013 5
2013 is a club option with a 300k buyout. He also received a 1m signing bonus.
jerseymet
5/7/2012-2:00pm at 2:00 pm (UTC -4)
Than explains it. Thanks.
Ceetar
5/7/2012-2:24pm at 2:24 pm (UTC -4)
The only part of Wright’s future i’m concerning myself with right now is if he’s gonna continue this and win the MVP.