The Mets currently sit at 23-20, a start to the season which pretty much everyone must agree has been surprisingly good. Despite being 6th in the NL in runs scored and 14th in runs allowed, despite being 15th in HR and dead last in steals, despite being 15th in ERA and 14th in ER and HR, and 10th in BB allowed, the team has persevered and remains very much in contention after nearly 30% of the season. And to ice the cake, the Mets’ run differential of -31 is “bested” by only five teams, none of which have winning records.
The team has again suffered injuries to key players, losing Mike Pelfrey for the year, and Josh Thole, Jason Bay, and Ruben Tejada to DL stints as well. Yet they have not been under .500 this year after the 4-0 start, and each time the squad seems poised for “the” losing streak, they charge back with a few wins to quiet the unruly masses and keep hope alive. They did it after losing 5 of 6 following the doubleheader sweep by SF, they did it after the sweep in Houston, and while the last couple of weeks have been up and down, they have stayed above .500 and avoided any extended losing streaks.
When one carefully examines this team, is it fair to expect much more? The feeling here is that the answer to this is a resounding no.
—————————————————————————————————————————————–
Based on most sources the 2012 Met payroll is 14th in the game at about 93 million. Johan, Bay, and Wright account for about 56 million, so the other 22 men on the team are being paid about 37 mil—that ain’t much.
A check of many popular blog comment sections shows righteous—and rightful—indignation at the likes of Mike Nickeas fouling the spot where Gary Carter and Jerry Grote once strode. There’s one reason we have a guy who clearly is not a serious major leaguer catching almost every day—and it lies within Fred Wilpon’s wallet. People can criticize Sandy Alderson all they want, but Oakland’s great teams which won three consecutive pennants and a title were not small budget clubs; Alderson obviously was given a budget for 2012 with what has been called the all-time record shrinkage in the history of the game. It’s not Sandy’s fault that he had no money for a catcher.
Yes, the Francisco move was a head-scratcher; this is something almost everyone can agree on. But the team lost KRod and the mostly effective Izzy, and Parnell’s career of mediocrity was further enhanced by his failure in a closer trial last September. Something had to be done, the choices were not overwhelming, and the 2012 Mets arguably were not among the top ten destinations in baseball’s free agent era.
Did Alderson overpay for Frank? Yeah, probably. But when people complain about this, do they ever suggest a realistic alternative? Papelbon? Madson? And fans should remember that for all of his weak outings, Francisco is 11-for-13 in save chances. Not too bad, and better than his career record prior to 2012.
—————————————————————————————————————————————–
The rotation? After losing Pelfrey, we have seen Schwinden and Batista, as the team desperately clings to the hope that Chris Young will not tear an ACL while brushing his teeth, and that he comes back to give 20 starts. But again, what were the moves which Sandy missed here with no budget?
Angel Pagan has been doing well of late and has his numbers at a pace basically right at his 2010 level. Andres Torres has slowed down after a hot start and Ramon Ramirez has been a disappointment; but when one looks at Ramirez’s last four years, it is just not rational to blame Sandy for wanting to add a pitcher with Ramirez’s track record to what figured to be a terrible bullpen. And the two players he received filled two spots for about half a million more than Pagan cost to fill one.
The fact is that Alderson had an incredibly difficult situation given to him by the Wilpon budget requirements. Before criticizing him, the reasonable fan should put forth a detailed alternative plan.
—————————————————————————————————————————————–
Among the other elements we have seen amidst the strange brew of surprise and frustration with 2012 thus far has been a serious attempt at revisionism by a segment of the fan base when it comes to Omar Minaya.
Many feel that Omar is a good-to-very-good talent evaluator, and this may be true. But folks must remember that he was not director of scouting or development, he was GM. He was responsible for one of the worst and most costly series of bad signings in baseball history. He gave crazy contracts to players ranging from Pedro to Ollie to Castillo to KRod to Bay and more. Contracts which he was clearly bidding against only himself to award.
Yet some folks talk about “Omar’s guys” as if this team is in first place with great promise for 2012 and 2013; it’s not. Not at all. Not thanks to Omar.
This author has been largely thrilled with the .500+ ball the team has played all year. When revisiting the litany of mediocrity the statistics at the beginning of this article point to—combined with Met residence in baseball’s best or 2nd best division—it can be viewed as something of a miracle that the team has the record it does.
“Omar’s guys?” Thole, Ike, Murphy, Tejada, Kirk, Duda, Niese, Gee, Parnell. Is this the “core” of a great team? Or a nice group of hustling second-tier players waiting for a “core” to lead it? The latter seems a lot more realistic.
—————————————————————————————————————————————–
So, what to think? The feeling here is that Terry Collins has done a magnificent job. After the injury-plagued 2009, Jerry Manuel looked good for the first half of 2010, but the team collapsed like a Parnell save attempt as the summer wore on and the slack, country club atmosphere of the Manuel era became clear. The 2011 Mets had a similar second-half swoon, but were not long on talent and suffered the losses of Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez, two of their best and most productive players.
Fans often like to pick at every move managers make, and this is an easy parlor game for observers to play. But the reality seems to be that Terry Collins has gotten much more than can rationally have been expected from this mostly bargain basement group of players.
Sure, not hitting Murph Monday night in Pittsburgh was seemingly debatable, as was only allowing Parnell to pitch to one batter against Cincinnati last Wednesday. But with apologies to fans of Bobby and St. Murph, we are not talking about Mariano Rivera and Ty Cobb here.
Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint like the NFL. Baseball managers who prime their teams to play hard and fearlessly and until out 27 every night can be very valuable to their teams. Collins seems to have evolved into this kind of manager.
—————————————————————————————————————————————–
Everyone likes homegrown players, this writer most definitely included. But we are not looking at a group which rivals Mookie, Wally, and Hubie, or Doc, Darryl, Ron, and El Sid. Sorry folks; Ike and Duda aren’t making the all-star team and hitting 35 HR, Niese is not rising above the mediocrity he has been his entire MLB career, Gee is not regaining the form he had his first couple of trips through the league, Parnell is not harnessing the velocity which has given him a free ride since high school to become dominant, Murph’s not more than a very good singles hitter, and Thole, Kirk, and Tejada are good young players but not stars.
So how are they above .500 in this division? Hustle and attitude, led by Collins, and the excellent performances and examples set by Dickey and Wright.
Omar does deserve credit for Dickey. Pound for pound, dollar for dollar, maybe his very best move. Johan has been good—as it is reasonable to expect for 24 million bucks—but aside from Dickey and the obvious magnificence of Wright’s start, the team doesn’t have another player having even a very good season, with the possible exception of the very one-dimensional Murphy.
So what to think? Is Collins doing a great job preparing and motivating this team? Making them believe that they can win despite the payroll, the injuries, and the expectations under the Big Apple microscope? Using the roster in a way which maximizes each player’s chances to succeed? Continuing the apparently excellent relationships he began developing with many of these players in the minors?
—————————————————————————————————————————————–
All serious fans want this team to win. But sometimes there just are not good options; the choice of Nickeas as backup catcher being exhibit A. Alderson had almost no money to spend, could not afford to really replace Reyes, Beltran, or KRod, and absolutely had to do something to bolster the bullpen. It is understandable that he did what he did with the little money the Wilpons gave him to spend.
The feeling here is that the ride should be enjoyed for as long as it may last this year. This division is brutal, and figures to remain this way. While those cute li’l sight-challenged squirrels who have been predicting the Phils’ demise since the last out of the 2008 World Series may finally have found their elusive nut, the same folks wishing horrors for the Marlins are sadly mistaken. This division has several clubs with the potential to be very, very good for years to come.
But there is hope. There is definitely hope. The best hope may be in the right arm of Zack Wheeler, who Alderson pried from the pitching-rich Giants for their rental of Beltran. There is hope in what we can only imagine will be a seriously increased payroll in 2013; a .500+ finish and improved attendance and SNY ratings can only accelerate this. There is hope in Wright’s apparent reemergence as a serious star on offense and defense. There is hope in “Omar’s guys” becoming a foundation upon which to build with stars led by Wright, maybe Wheeler, and hopefully another couple brought in by Sandy.
And there is hope in the way this team plays the game under Terry Collins.
.500+ in a very tough division–despite the injuries, despite the bullpen meltdowns, despite the utter lack of power, despite the rotation weakness beyond Johan and Dickey, and despite the often utterly anemic lineups—itself radiates hope after the last few years.
—————————————————————————————————————————————–
Patience is unfortunately still needed; arguing over Omar’s cast of second-tier players is pointless, as is blaming Alderson for having to work with a historically diminished budget.
There is a lot of love for this flawed, hustling, overachieving team.
Let us hope that the promise showed in the first 43 games of 2012 is not a mirage as first half success was in 2010 and 2011; let us hope that the foundation for a winning team is being poured and cast, and that the re-signing of Wright, and the arrival of Wheeler and a few more Alderson additions will finish the construction of the next orange and blue team worthy of being a successor to the legendary crews of 1969 and 1986.
And let us enjoy the 2012 team—a team that has far exceeded all but the most optimistic fan’s expectations thus far, and a team which believes in itself and truly hustles and fights until the final out every night.
As fans, what more can we ask then that players play up to their level or higher?
The 2012 Mets have done that and more.
74 comments
srt
5/23/2012-8:39am at 8:39 am (UTC -4)
Great read and summed up very nicely in the last section.
It’s obvious by now the Wilpons area of expertise does not include running a baseball team. I liked their signing of Omar – thought it was a good move. Where they made their mistake was their evaluation that led them to extend Omar’s contract. No one looked below the surface to realize the team was not one or two pieces away from a dynasty but rather heading towards seriously flawed. And that included the minor league organization.
From the signing of Alou to Perez to aging pitchers such as Glavine and El Duque to rushing prospects to not going over slot in the draft to wasting potential draft picks by trading Wagner…….Omar was heading in the wrong direction.
What’s done is done and hopefully we’ve got a new era with this current FO and the Wilpons realization that the spending of money on the team has to be balanced.
Most of us thought going into this season that finishing .500 would be an accomplishment. After that good April, some apparently are back on the mindset of winning the division. Don’t think that’s happening guys….
SA was right. So far, this team is fun to watch. It’s the right year to play some of the young ones, see what we’ve got. Even though some are raw, some are not ML starters, I think that’s the weight tipping the scales a bit so far this season.
I won’t pretend to know what all is planned going forward but from what I’ve heard and what I’m seeing, I like the new direction. Here’s hoping it leads to a better balanced payroll, ML team and minor league organization.
It’s been 26 years since the last WS championship. I’m not getting any younger……
srt
5/23/2012-8:41am at 8:41 am (UTC -4)
Oh yeah……and the Phillies are done. Stick a fork in them. Don’t think the return of Utley and/or Howard is saving their season.
Stick
5/23/2012-9:42am at 9:42 am (UTC -4)
Yeah baby!
SaltyGary
5/23/2012-8:49am at 8:49 am (UTC -4)
Spot on with the Collins assessment and I will add one thing “preparation”. Take away the Houston series and the Mets just seem to be mo prepared.
In terms of home grown players half of these guys wouldn’t of been givend this extended opportunity if it wasn’t for the payroll and Wilpkn issues. I think Dude and Tejada will definitely stick around. Murph just weirds me out. He’s a great contact hitter but I don’t want him at second or first. He would be better utilized as a DH.
I still think the bottom will fallout soon enough with their lack of power. The heart and preparation can only keep them a float for so long.
NJstuckinTX
5/23/2012-9:18am at 9:18 am (UTC -4)
Kong, you continue to impress. Thanks.
I still don’t think Collins is a great “in game” manager. He has done all you have said in motivating them and preparing them as best he can. I would say, more often than I would consider acceptable, his in game moves make me scratch my head. So I will continue to yell at the TV when he does a boneheaded pitching change or pinch hitter selection, but I’m not going to call for his ouster.
As for GMs, no GM does only bad and no GM does only good. Alderson, in my mind, should have gotten something better for a catcher and another SP. I know, we already had Johan, Dickey, Niese, Pelf and Gee, but the last 2 were Pelf and Gee. We are not talking Koufax and Drysdale. One of them could have been the long man in the BP. Again, we couldn’t predict Pelf going down, but we also couldn’t predict Johan staying together. The BP I was actually happy with. Ramirez pitching like he has was not anticipated in the least. I’d say the same for Acosta. I certainly can armchair GM all I want, and probably would have driven this team into the ground with the choices I would have wanted, but I know I would have lifted the Wilpons couch cushions to find an extra million or 2 and gotten something better than Nickeas as a back up C.
My last sidebar would be this. Saying Omar was a good talent evaluator is not a black/white thing. Yeah, he drafted/signed much of the roster today. I’m not sure if that is praise or an implication.
Stick
5/23/2012-9:51am at 9:51 am (UTC -4)
thing is, Omar himself is getting way too much credit. he might be a fine scout, but he was the GM, not a scout.
A ML GM really has nothing to do with picking mid-late round draft picks. So if the team finds some useful pieces in the 4th or 7th round, that is on the scouring director.
I assume the GM may take a more active role in the 1st round (maybe supplemental/2nd round) but even then, it probably involves looking a little closer at scouting reports, or some video. But by the time the dillon Gees of the world are getting drafted, the GM is giving the same “who dat” as the rest of us!
the GM is responsible for big moves on the ML roster, and for setting an organizational structure and philosophy, and hiring good people to execute. this is where Omar failed, and IMO a huge part of the mission Sandy had (rebuilding the organization structurally top to bottom). Something that gets lost in the Core hatred of every minor tide-over move that Sandy has made on the big club.
trs86
5/23/2012-9:22am at 9:22 am (UTC -4)
I will go with NJ. It’s easy to say if Collins wasn’t a bonehead… but then if Collins wasn’t who he is then maybe we are not in the situation for it to matter to start with… so you take the good with the bad I guess.
Nice article Kingman. I think I will go link it elsewhere
NJstuckinTX
5/23/2012-9:27am at 9:27 am (UTC -4)
Looking for hit count, I see…
trs86
5/23/2012-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
Yup those extra 5 might push us over
Stick
5/23/2012-9:54am at 9:54 am (UTC -4)
you might have made an extra $.25 yesterday, but I did not find the extra traffic to be particularly stimulating.
trs86
5/23/2012-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
LOL, considering it takes about 1,000 hits to make a buck, I doubt it.
kingman 26
5/23/2012-9:39am at 9:39 am (UTC -4)
Hahaha. Thanks Chief!
Shall I guess where you are going to link it?
Stick
5/23/2012-9:44am at 9:44 am (UTC -4)
I had the same thought.
but to save time, the Core does NOT approve of this message…
srt
5/23/2012-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
hahahahaha
Good thing the game starts at about 12:30 today.
Stick
5/23/2012-12:09pm at 12:09 pm (UTC -4)
why do they insist on having day games on days where I have meetings to run all afternoon?
Very inconsiderate.
srt
5/23/2012-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
I sympathize. Hear my phone ringing and think: ‘don’t they know I’m trying to watch a ballgame???’
Stick
5/23/2012-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
why can’t Collins be a master motivater, but also not make the occasional bonehead move?
NJstuckinTX
5/23/2012-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
He can be and is!
Prismo
5/23/2012-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
+1
Ceetar
5/23/2012-10:04am at 10:04 am (UTC -4)
find me a manager that doesn’t make the occasional/regular bonehead move.
Prismo
5/23/2012-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
You will have a hard time doing that, because most are doofuses when it comes to in-game management.
kingman 26
5/23/2012-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
That’s just a really strange thing to say.
“Most are doofuses”?
Second guessing is SO easy for us to do.
Every move Collins makes can be second guessed if we lose or the move backfires.
Prismo
5/23/2012-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
Again, it isn’t about second guessing – it’s about first guessing. Second guessing means saying he did something wrong well after the fact, first guessing is saying he’s making a stupid move before we see the result.
Example: I thought pulling Dickey was a stupid move before we saw the outcome of Torres’ hit. And even then it’s easy to say the move worked out because the Mets won regardless, but I still think it was the wrong decision.
And why is that a strange thing to say? It’s true. Most managers are hired based on: being a former player, being a good motivator, having some managerial experience. And those are all important, but I don’t think managers are ever trained on the “right” way to manage a game necessarily. Most of their knowledge comes from what they learned while playing, and what they learned while being a coach/manager/etc after they played from other managers. That’s all inclusive knowledge – they’re not learning anything from those outside the strict bounds of the game.
But these days we know SO much more than just what things look like on the field. We can use statistics to learn the “right” moves to make, but I just don’t think most managers are taking the time to use that to their advantage.
kingman 26
5/23/2012-10:31am at 10:31 am (UTC -4)
I just totally disagree that it is a bad move to pinch hit for a pitcher leading off the 8th inning of a tie game.
And I agree about what you say managers learn and get trained to do, but I really disagree that in-game management is not part of all of this too.
Prismo
5/23/2012-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
Then I shutter to think of the moves some guys who can’t get manager jobs would make. lol
The bunting is the worst though, it hasn’t popped up the last few games…but man, bunting with position players is most often an idiotic move and Terry’s done it so much (as do many managers).
The good news is that since so many managers make these types of moves, it doesn’t really put the Mets are a competitive disadvantage. So basically I wouldn’t call for Terry’s head based on this stuff. If you bring in a Wally Backman, nothing with in-game management will change anyway.
kingman 26
5/23/2012-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
I agree 100% about the bunting. I HATE giving away outs.
trs86
5/23/2012-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I went to watch the Bisons weekend before last and man oh man did Wally make some crazy decisions. One costing the game.
srt
5/23/2012-11:03am at 11:03 am (UTC -4)
After the game a couple of days ago – on the post game wrap up, they showed a recent game where Wally was going off on an ump concerning a call in the field.
Carlin asked Bobby O about it. Bobby O replies something like:
‘He’s been my friend for over 25 years. In all that time, I’ve never seen him lose his temper’.
Then he chuckled.
Wally up here as manager wouldl certainly be an adventure.
trs86
5/23/2012-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
Well the good news is I only saw him slightly argue one call but mostly chalked it up to his own players ignorance.
Prismo
5/23/2012-9:50am at 9:50 am (UTC -4)
I will absolutely blame Collins when he makes terrible in-game moves (which happens seemingly nightly with regards to pitching/bullpen management). Pulling Dickey with 87 pitches for a below .200 hitting Torres was mind-boggling. And even Terry admitted it after the game saying “Dickey could have done with” with regards to Torres striking out. And that’s not second-guessing, it’s something every fan was yelling at their tv screen as soon as Dickey was pulled.
Just because the team’s finances led to a somewhat poorly constructed team, at least in terms of depth, doesn’t mean Sandy and Terry get free passes for the entirety of their Mets careers.
It was Sandy’s JOB to tell the Wilpons “Hey…I know we’re watching the payroll, but we really can’t go into the season with no real back-up catcher.” And maybe he did that, and maybe they said “too bad” but given our limited knowledge of the situation Sandy deserves some of the blame there.
I agree, we should be thrilled the team is above .500 at this point in the season. Given the run differential between the Mets and opposing teams so far this year, our record is pretty amazing. Statistics say it’s not likely to keep up, but you could also say that if they’ve done it for 1.5 months, they can do it the rest of the season too.
kingman 26
5/23/2012-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)
“Just because the team’s finances led to a somewhat poorly constructed team, at least in terms of depth, doesn’t mean Sandy and Terry get free passes for the entirety of their Mets careers.”
And never, ever did I suggest that; I even said that Manuel looked good for a while too. And that the future will be the true measuring stick.
And I would say it is reasonable to suggest that after the pen moves, Alderson was told that’s it $-wise. No way he wanted Nickeas–I mean, Nickeas isn’t even a hitter at AAA.
As for last night, is pinch hitting that bad of an idea with the pitcher leading off the 8th inning of a tie game when your team has little offense? Sorry, even though Dickey had thrown 89 pitches, that’s most definitely a reasonable move. If someone is on for Dickey to bunt over or if there are 2 outs, leave him in.
But getting angry for pinch-hitting in a tie game in the top of the 8th with the pitcher leading off is just simply not reasonable.
Stick
5/23/2012-9:53am at 9:53 am (UTC -4)
You people are going to be eating your words when this team hangs around, and actually imporves as the season goes along. Meaningful games in September baby! I guaranteeeeeee it.
Ceetar
5/23/2012-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
hard to eat them when i’ll be serving them.
Stick
5/23/2012-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
well, obviously someone as intelligent as you would see the light and be excluded from this.
Prismo
5/23/2012-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
lololol
srt
5/23/2012-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
You are on top of your game this morning. LOL.
kingman 26
5/23/2012-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
And they should be very well-done Ceetar, as you have been preparing them for four years.
Ceetar
5/23/2012-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
because I actually like the Mets.
kingman 26
5/23/2012-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
Yes sir, and I most certainly don’t.
Keep the gems coming; as always, they are polished to perfection.
Some of us love the Mets AND the real world. They are not mutually exclusive.
Ceetar
5/23/2012-10:26am at 10:26 am (UTC -4)
yeah, that’s what I said.
gategem
5/23/2012-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)
You could have fooled me.
gategem
5/23/2012-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
Considering that the Mets play so many games in September within their division and the division will be a dog fight with 3 or possibly 4 teams (not including the Mets who will be happily ensconced on the bottom) fighting for a post season berth the Mets will certainly be playing meaning full games in September. Unfortunately they will meaningless to the Mets.
trs86
5/23/2012-10:51am at 10:51 am (UTC -4)
Can we not at least at this point say “may” be meaningless? LOL.
Keep hope alive!
gategem
5/23/2012-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
It should read “meaningful” but on second thought maybe meaning full was correct. LOL
darknova306
5/23/2012-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
When the smoke dissipates and the mirrors are broken and faded, the Mets will finish sliding back to mediocrity. 14th in runs allowed? You’re not going to sustain much of anything like that. And the Mets are 14-7 against the NL East. They feasted on a bunch of teams that got off to a slow start (that Atlanta pitching was terrible early). Enjoy this while it lasts.
trs86
5/23/2012-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
I am.
darknova306
5/23/2012-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
I hope you’re right, Stick. I’d love to eat my words with some tasty bacon on top.
Oh, how’s that Duda Triple Crown coming…?
Stick
5/23/2012-12:12pm at 12:12 pm (UTC -4)
He has always been a slow starter, but there may be an issue with catching up to Wright for BA.
so let’s revise it to be “top 5 triple crown” instead.
gategem
5/23/2012-3:57pm at 3:57 pm (UTC -4)
That becomes obvious when you watch him run.
Stick
5/23/2012-12:18pm at 12:18 pm (UTC -4)
At some point, overacheiving your #s becomes what you are.
so, why sholdn’t they stay in the hunt?
One thing I do expect is that the performance will shift. The pitching will adjust (pen shuffling and guys returning to form will help). And mostly, the offense should be able to pick up if they get the 1/2 of the starters missing back. I count Ike as missing.
so no, Wright isn’t likely to hit .400, but at some piont a guy like DUda will go on a HR streak. so things offset.
I still think they can hang as the .500+ a little team, and those are the ones with some luck here, smoke and mirrors over there, and a guy out of nowhere or 2 suddenly go from .500 to dueling to the end for the playoffs.
so, you can say they overacheived, or can say that they have no where to go but up, being where they are with some many hurdles to have overcome already!
trs86
5/23/2012-12:23pm at 12:23 pm (UTC -4)
I think the problem is that it is odd for a team with a negative run differential to stay in any race.
Stick
5/23/2012-1:18pm at 1:18 pm (UTC -4)
Just way too early to look at the pythagorean as meaning anything. that really depends on a large sample size. at this point, it just indicates the mets have been good in close games, but have lost a couple of massive blowouts (without really having blowout wins to offset)
Prismo
5/23/2012-2:18pm at 2:18 pm (UTC -4)
So I went back 10 years and tried to find some examples of teams finishing the season with good records, but a run differential of at least -20: there were only the following three examples.
2008: Houston finishes 86-75 with a -31 run differential
2007: Seattle finishes 88-75 with a -27 run differential
2007: Arizona finishes 90-72 with a -20 run differential
Now the unfortunate thing is that the Mets already have a run differential of -31. If that trend continues, there’s just an extremely small chance they finished above .500, it would be completely freakish. So basically…it does look like something has to change, which hopefully is the Mets scoring more runs.
Stick
5/23/2012-3:23pm at 3:23 pm (UTC -4)
hang on, let me put on my Ceetar hat here…
OK, chin strap fashioned.
If we are going to project the run differential out, let’s project the record too (hey, makes sense!), so 4 games over in roughly 30%, carry the big toe, and we get 14 games over so 88 wins. SOunds good to me!
Prismo
5/23/2012-3:38pm at 3:38 pm (UTC -4)
I actually kind of agree with that overall sentiment.
What has happened so far may have been lucky, but who knows how much merit it has over the remainder of the season.
The crappy differential is mostly due to runs allowed, and I don’t think our bullpen can be so horrendous all season long – we’ll have some new arms to join the fray if that does happen (Beato, Mejia, etc).
gategem
5/23/2012-3:56pm at 3:56 pm (UTC -4)
Your use of mathematical induction is, well, laughable, but in a nice way.
Stick
5/23/2012-4:13pm at 4:13 pm (UTC -4)
I was just going with the prismo flow. He prorated/projected, so I did too!
Paul Festa
5/23/2012-3:44pm at 3:44 pm (UTC -4)
“but when one looks at Ramirez’s last four years, it is just not rational to blame Sandy for wanting to add a pitcher with Ramirez’s track record” – exactly. It’s not like Ramon is 38 years old and due for a drop off either. History suggests he’ll turn around.
Anyone who says they knew Ramirez would have a bad year is engaging in hindsight. And there’s still time for his numbers to drift back to his career averages.
As you say, the Mets really have no superstars (except Wright), and they are overachieving. What’s wrong with giving some of the credit to the manager?
Prismo
5/23/2012-3:50pm at 3:50 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with this and Kingman’s take on the Pagan trade. Ramirez looked like an excellent piece at the time (and he still can be).
If you view the trade as the Mets getting a 4th outfielder and a high talent reliever it’s very favorable. However, making Torres the starting CF makes me nauseous.
gategem
5/23/2012-4:02pm at 4:02 pm (UTC -4)
Another fine article but it sounds very much like you authored it via an angry pen. And as usual it appears that Tolstoy was your muse. However, I generally agree with the content (if not the tone) of the article.
As I said before I think TC is the perfect manager for this team and they are well prepared. I love the offensive approach this team has taken that should satisfy both saberheads and obstinate traditionalists. They work the count trying to at once get a favorable count for hitting while tiring the pitcher. They are 3rd in OBP in the NL. Their problems occur when the opposing pitcher throws strikes and then the hitters have to rely on talent an area in which they are lacking. But if they maintained the hitting philosophy under the previous regime, that is swing hard in case you hit it, they would be a sub .500 team. However, if I may borrow from Paul, on many days the Mets are fielding a lineup of has-beens, never-weres, might-bes, and probably-won’ts. You generally are witnessing players that either are trying to build a career or desperately trying to avoid the shuffle to Buffalo or being released. It’s not difficult to keep that team playing hard with hustle and attitude. It’s much more difficult to drive veteran teams with superstars like the Yankees, Phillies the last few years and the RedSox. It’s the reason back in 1978 that Bob Lemon, a Jerry Manuel type, replaced Billy Martin, a smart version of TC and successfully led the Yankees to a WC. Depending on the team sometimes laid back is preferred.
I do think the weeping and wailing over the injuries to Pelfry and Bay is somewhat disingenuous. Most people wanted both of them gone. Oh, yes Pelfry was an innings eater. Season lost. Other teams have lost players that were much more essential to their success than the Mets have this year. It happens and you either compensate or you don’t.
Stick
5/23/2012-4:17pm at 4:17 pm (UTC -4)
“I love the offensive approach this team has taken that should satisfy both saberheads and obstinate traditionalists”
The obstinate traditionalists in the Core(tm) vehemently disagree with you, and wish for a plaque of fleas to invade your Yurt.
drklynoon
5/23/2012-10:19pm at 10:19 pm (UTC -4)
The loss of Tejada cannot be under-appreciated. His presence led to the best usage of the pieces that we have. Once he is back the runs scored should go back up. (Hopefully) Then if Franky reverts back to career numbers then the run differential should narrow. I see little reason why thei ragtagged bunch of guys cannot finish the season around .500 we have a good 1-2 punch in the rotation and should have a productive 1-4 in the BO. Terry has done a good job at keeping the ship righted but I do agree that some of his ingame calls make me scratch my head. Now on too Omar. He was a dolt, he was terribly reactionary. His signings except for Beltran and Dickey were all flops. I give him little to no credit for the draft. His Managerial assignments were hopeless and he mishandled many reassignments. I am not a Sandy supporter but I am a fan who gives things time before I make a judgement. So far the only misstep I am willing to hang on Sandy is not resigning Cappy. Anyway good post kingman.
Stickguy
5/23/2012-10:38pm at 10:38 pm (UTC -4)
actually a key difference. Omar was the master of botching roster management, and losing 2 guys for a 1 day replacement start.
Still POd about losing Day a couple years back, so that some stiff could come up for a horrid spot start, which lasted about 2 innings, and who was promptly waived too.
kingman 26
5/23/2012-10:41pm at 10:41 pm (UTC -4)
Hey Sictk!
Hamels is 7-1!
Sandy’s first big FA signing for next year?!?!?!
Seriously, Hamels, Johan, Dickey, Niese, and Harvey next year?
Mmmmm, sounds good!
Seriously, how better to stick (pardon the pun) it to the Phils than by signing Hamels!!!!!
Stickguy
5/23/2012-10:44pm at 10:44 pm (UTC -4)
I would put that in the “not a chance in hell” category. But, interesting concept. And he will be expensive.
also scares the willies out of me on a huge deal. Could make Johan look durable if that elbow decides to give out.
kingman 26
5/23/2012-10:48pm at 10:48 pm (UTC -4)
You have to admit, watching Hamels beat the Phils in a Met uni would be so exciting for you that you would have to lock yourself alone in a room to properly enjoy it.
Stay tuned tomorrow…I am 4-1 in postgames and am on tomorrow night…
Stickguy
5/23/2012-11:00pm at 11:00 pm (UTC -4)
you screwed the pooch on Monday dude. Those of us in the dugout put that frustrating loss squarely on your shoulders. Well, I gave a slice to terry too, but mostly you!
kingman 26
5/23/2012-10:39pm at 10:39 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks and welcome to this site!
Nice comments, and I agree!
And in fairness to Sandy, Cappy did not pitch like this last year, and the Wilpons probably told Sandy he could not match the Dodgers offer.
drklynoon
5/23/2012-10:48pm at 10:48 pm (UTC -4)
I’m not a huge stat geek but my understanding of capps numbers were that he had some terrible luck last year and still put up decent numbers.Who knows if he coulda resigned him or not. He might have only took west coast offers but it was played out like we had no interest. Stick I’m still ticked by the Putz trade. talking about trading 5 for one and that one was actually 1/2 then gone.
kingman 26
5/23/2012-10:49pm at 10:49 pm (UTC -4)
Love JJ. He was hurt when we got him. Omar is a moron.
I came home seriously buzzed the night we got JJ and I thought we locked up the pennant. When he has been healthy, he is GREAT.
drklynoon
5/23/2012-10:54pm at 10:54 pm (UTC -4)
I was less than thrilled. Watching Smith pitch I really saw a darn good MR guy. Needless to say I thought we gave up a ton and JJ’s numbers were showing signs of a problem the year before. He should have atleast tryed to hold on to him and get some value for the trade. Oh well bygones. I love watching this team play and that is something I haven’t been able to truely say in like three years. So I suppose things are looking up.
drklynoon
5/23/2012-10:49pm at 10:49 pm (UTC -4)
Hamels as a Johan replacement. Hmmm not a bad idea. I suppose it depends on the years and who knows if they are really ready to pony up a big contract.
Stickguy
5/23/2012-11:01pm at 11:01 pm (UTC -4)
one big problem is the years overlap. I honestly can’t see the team ponying up 50mill for just 2 SPs next season.
drklynoon
5/23/2012-11:05pm at 11:05 pm (UTC -4)
I see that being a stopper as well. It would be pretty awesome. Sign Hamels let Pelf go hell releasing Pelf would pay for some of the first year’s expense.