It’s June 4, 2012, and the Mets are tied for first place.
Before the season, Sports Illustrated predicted the Mets would win 75 games. That’s what most of us Mets fans figured they’d win. Michael Kay, the Yankees play-by-play man and WFAN ESPN Radio blowhard reckoned the Mets would win 50 games this year.
Well, here on June 4th, the Mets have won 31 games, and are locked in a 3-way tie for first with the upstart Washington Nationals, and the big-spending Miami Marlins. No one would have expected this, but then again, no one would have expected the Mets first ever no-hitter, either.
We all figured the lineup would be good. And it has been, for the most part. In the MLB, they’re 9th in runs, 10th in batting average, and 5th in OBP. The starting rotation has been insane, thanks mostly to the miracle man, Johan Santana, and the man who has re-invented the knuckleball, R.A. Dickey. Jon Niese pitched a fine 6 innings last night, but left because of dizziness. His stamina is still in question. The bullpen has been the Achilles’ Heel, even after the money spent on reliable, veteran relievers like Rauch, Francisco, and Ramirez.
But, on June 4th, the Mets are in first place. Anybody see that coming?
27 comments
NJstuckinTX
6/4/2012-9:10am at 9:10 am (UTC -4)
You could have slapped me in the face and called me Susan to think this team would be in first place at this point. It is thrilling, but at the same point, I don’t want this team getting delusions of grandeur. Honestly, I know Sandy fall for that trap either. I wouldn’t mind, however, seeing the Mets trade for an OF player. I’m not thinking someone of Carlos Quentin’s ilk (though it would be nice) and then putting Duda at 1B gives this team the best upgrade for the offense. Tejada should be back soon, Bay as well and I never thought I would say this but thank the stars Thole is back.
TRS86
6/4/2012-9:12am at 9:12 am (UTC -4)
I don’t see them making any offensive moves. They have offensive depth. It may not be the greatest but when Bay returns you actually have more than enough decently capable bodies. They may need to bring in another decent BP guy, especially a LH.
NJstuckinTX
6/4/2012-9:21am at 9:21 am (UTC -4)
Agreed they need BP help.
And though the offense has been doing well, I still see an upgrade would be needed for 1B. And if that is sliding Duda there and getting OF help, so be it. Honestly, you could prob. slide Duda there once Bay is back and just rotate Bay, Kirk, Torres, Hairston for the 4 OF spots, with Torres playing every day. Just my 2 cents.
TRS86
6/4/2012-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
Yeah that’s what I mean. If they determine Ike has to go down they have enough in house offense when Bay returns to complete the shuffle.
Stick
6/4/2012-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
not like they will have to worry about replacing any offense though. Just his glove.
I am sure Duda, murphy or anyone else can come in and take his foot off the bag too early every game, giving the other team extra outs. You never see that, and he does it 2 days in a row?
Send him down. Send a message.
gategem
6/4/2012-4:03pm at 4:03 pm (UTC -4)
Cheating at first base by removing ones foot too soon is an art form that dates back to before even I was born. It’s similar to the neighborhood play at 2nd base that the umpires give to the 2nd baseman. Ike may be getting retribution from the umps for his whining. BTW if Duda tried that play he’d trip himself and go down like a ton of bricks.
srt
6/4/2012-9:37am at 9:37 am (UTC -4)
We should have realized when SI made that prediction we would probably finish better than last place. Their predictions are like the kiss of death.
oleosmirf
6/4/2012-9:40am at 9:40 am (UTC -4)
If Chris Young can stay healthy (huge if), then the Mets rotation is certainly good enough to make the playoffs.
Right now the Mets have problems with Jason Bay’s unfortunate return and automatic everyday status, Ike Davis looking horrendous and the bullpen being terrible.
When Bay comes back, the Mets need to seriously consider sending Ike down and moving Duda to 1st.
That way the Mets can continue to platoon Kirk/Hairston where they are batting something like .350
Stick
6/4/2012-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
I am dreading the thought of bay coming back. More accurately, dreading Terry treating him like Lou Gherig and immediately playing him every day. He is absolutely a platoon guy at best, but Terry will still trot his useless arse out there vs. RHP. And if he compounds the problem by playing Torres too and sitting Kirk, the offense will take another hit!
I equate bay coming back to putting sugar in the gas tank.
oleosmirf
6/4/2012-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
Bay has to play everyday though because the Mets offseason plans are partially dependent on how much it is going to cost them to move Bay. If the Mets can get a team to give them just 5 million, well that’s a useful BP piece…
Also, Torres has been a lot better than people give him credit. Given how bad Kirk is against LHP and how great Hairston has been against them, its a perfect match for a platoon.
Stick
6/4/2012-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
I am not interested in playing Bay if he sucks, hoping that he will somehow turn it arond enough to be traded, if it is costing them games.
and IMO the only way he goes is as a platoon type, so proving what the world knows already (he can’t hit RHP) is not going to serve any purpose.
so just let him play vs. lefties, and build value that way!
and yes, I know they are going to make him the FT guy, but it better be a really short leash if he looks like crap. Good think they have enough LH hitting (even without Ike) to help cover for him.
oleosmirf
6/4/2012-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
I definitely agree that he will have a short leash, but if he plays like he did before he got hurt, then he is playing virtually everyday.
Either way, Duda needs to play everyday, Kirk needs to be in the lineup against all RHP and Hairston needs to start against all LHP.
The only way I see that happening is if Ike is sent down or sits in favor of Duda against LHP…
TRS86
6/4/2012-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
Kirk’s splits vs LH aren’t great but the sample size is still very small. 4 more hits and his BA jumps about 100 points to .270′s.
oleosmirf
6/4/2012-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
tiny sample size indeed although this is where the eye test comes in as well. Any offspeed pitch from a lefty has him looking lost…
I think the best course of action is too limit his AB against LHP. Let him play against the weaker ones, but absolutely keep him away from guys like Sabathia, Gonzalez, Lee etc.
Plus the fact that he’s been very effective off the bench in his limited opportunities (batting .800 as a PH!!!)
TRS86
6/4/2012-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
Question is do they see Kirk as an everyday solution in the future? If so then he has to get AB’s vs LH to get better.
Stick
6/4/2012-12:00pm at 12:00 pm (UTC -4)
well, don’t go too heavy on the “Bay was doing good before he got hurt” idea.
small sample again, but he had way above sustainable #s in about 11 ABs vs. LHP (like a 1.20+ OPS), but in ~ 40 PAs vs. RHP he still sucks (.600ish OPS). with 1 RBI.
so I will believe he can actually hit a RHP when he finally does it, and that has not yet happened this year.
Stick
6/4/2012-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
Welcome to the bandwagon everyone! still some seats in the back, we can squeeze you in!
who knows how long the good times will last, but since I am on record (and one of the very few who can say that) as thinking the Mets would be above .500 (85-88ish, and in the WC hunt), I would not be surprised if they keepit up.
also, have you looked around the NL? Not a lot of good teams out there, and if you run down all the rosters, overall the Mets don’t look quite so bad!
I said it was just going to take some guys reverting to career norms, decent luck with injuries, and a lucky “where did that come from” or 2 and they could stay in the hunt.
and the fact that they are doing it while getting slaughtered by injuries and with a useless Ike (send him down already!) makes it even more impressive.
and at this point, I can not see them being sellers at the deadline. They aren’t trading Santana or Wright, and they have no other big contracts to move (other than Bay, who is immovable, and I would support trading him if they are still in 1st place. or last. or out of the league).
SaltyGary
6/4/2012-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
I said 68 wins, so just enjoying the ride.
kingman 26
6/4/2012-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
Well Stick, have you taken a look around our division?
We could win 85 and finish 4th.
Way too early to get too excited, but it has been an amazing 1/3 of the season. The last two years we were in similar spots further into the season, so let’s not plot the parade route just yet.
Stick
6/4/2012-12:04pm at 12:04 pm (UTC -4)
well, a team can only control their own wins. Can’t really do much about the other teams (well, other than beating them head to head!)
so if they win 88 games and finish 4th, or 5th, is that good, or bad?
point taken though that this could be an incredibly tight division top to bottom. should make for a fun pennant race, if every team is playing for themselves, not to be spoilers!
kingman 26
6/4/2012-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
I think 88 wins would be amazing and fantastic, and just like 90 wins was in 1984.
I really do.
Of course, I want meaningful October games as much as anyone, but I would see 88 wins and no playoffs as the stepping stone to 92-95 wins and the postseason next year.
Wheeler is to me what Duda is to you.
Except he IS going to be GREAT.
NJstuckinTX
6/4/2012-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
The no hitter pretty much cemented Santana living out the whole contract.
gategem
6/4/2012-4:10pm at 4:10 pm (UTC -4)
“but since I am on record (and one of the very few who can say that) as thinking the Mets would be above .500 (85-88ish, and in the WC hunt)”
Stick you remind me of the weatherman that constantly calls for a blizzard while everyone else is either predicting a nice day or perhaps 1 to 2 inches of snow. That weatherman is wrong 99% of the time but the one time he’s correct he makes sure that no one ever forgets it.
Ceetar
6/4/2012-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
I thought it could happen. Like this? probably not. I thought Davis and Duda and Bay would have 30 home runs between them at this point. I expected a bunch of quality starts from Pelfrey that the Mets bashed their way to victories.
I expected the bullpen to be a little less awful. Although I did think they’d be good enough to hold down most leads if overall not that great and that’s sorta what they’ve done, in a little more extreme fashion.
They weathered the Thole storm, and Tejada will be back should help a little too. But the Mets depth has really held the fort for the most part in their (and Bay’s) absence.
kingman 26
6/4/2012-10:18am at 10:18 am (UTC -4)
Well, after this weekend, I seriously think I am ready to put the float outside my apartment, after shining it up.
The damn run differential has almost reached zero and Chris Young joins the rotation tomorrow. And Francisco has looked great lately.
I definitely am not getting TOO psyched just yet, as last year’s team was I believe 55-51 in late July, and 2010′s was 43-32 near the halfway point.
But, while I wanted Wally, I felt Collins was clearly the 2nd best choice, and while some like to gripe every day about his in-game moves, I firmly believe he is the main reason that this team comes to play so damn hard every day, and that the kids–aside from Ike who could be damaged from the injury–have produced so well.
Yes Stick, we are 3-0 in the 22 game Death March stretch, which does have me giddy, but let’s now finish this period 12-10 or better.
Our division is brutal, and sorry to say, but while the “Phils are done” folks have finally found their nut, the “Marlins will implode” people were dead wrong as I said–a hugely talented team which is here to stay.
So, let’s just follow our Metsies in their impressive bubble, and hope it does not burst until we are well into fall.
Damn this is fun, and in all seriousness, if Wright, Johan, Dickey, Francisco, and Young can stay healthy and produce, the team should at least win 82–85 games and who knows what is possible beyond that.
And I swear, for those who did not see the clips of Wheeler—this kid has AMAZING stuff. Amazing. He’s a serious number 1 if he stays healthy.
gategem
6/4/2012-4:19pm at 4:19 pm (UTC -4)
Ceetar you think it can happen every year.
darknova306
6/4/2012-8:53pm at 8:53 pm (UTC -4)
I expected the offense would be a bit better than it has been, the bullpen to pretty bad, and the rotation to be nowhere near as good as it’s been.
It should not go overlooked that:
A) The Mets’ depth, which I thought would be pretty mediocre, has held the fort admirably with all the injuries.
B) Even despite the injuries that have occurred, no one is allowed to refer to the Mets as ‘unlucky’ as long as Santana is healthy and pitching like he has been. For once, one of the biggest question marks for this team has been answered in an extremely positive manner.
C) Over the last three years this team has always managed to suck people like me back in during May or June, and then July hits to crush all those positive feelings. This year’s team has been really fun to watch, and always feels like they still have a chance, but they’ve got a lot of work ahead of them to make me forget the misery of the recent past So any shred of optimism I have going right now is exceedingly cautious.
The one big thing the Mets have going for them is just how tight the division is. Unless someone gets really hot and starts putting some distance in there, this should be an interesting summer.