The first thing a really rational, seasoned fan should ask is this:
Does a team with the Mets’ negative run differential, atrocious bullpen, terrible fielding, and utter lack of speed and home run power have any business being above .500?
Isn’t it pretty hard to say yes?
Shouldn’t we be happy that this team has not been below .500 since the year started? Does this make one an “apologist” or a lover of Kool-Aid worthy of residency in Jonestown, Guyana?
Or should we be angry at the bullpen failures and the thus far negative results of the Pagan trade? Should Sandy’s feet be held to the fire for the bullpen moves and lack of solid veteran depth?
Should we be eagerly—and patiently—waiting for Wheeler and Sandy’s draftees to develop, or should we be angry that he is not developing what appears to be a Canseco-McGwire-Eckersley-Stewart A’s-like machine?
What’s reasonable here?
It’s difficult, isn’t it?
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Just about every pundit and almost all but the most optimistic (or unrealistic) fans were expecting disaster. Some of the Nattering Nabobs of Negativity were expecting 100 losses. More folks were reasonably expecting maybe 85-90 losses, and those with the healthiest combo of optimism and reality maybe dreamed of a .500 season. That .500 season is clearly within reach.
Some like to moan about every lineup, every pitching change, every substitution. The feeling here remains that while no manager is perfect, and there are truly an infinite number of times a manager can make mistakes in a 162-game marathon season such as baseball has, Terry Collins simply has done all he can with this group. What’s the difference when he has the options he does in the bullpen? Is pining for Hairston or Valdespin really like asking for Kevin Mitchell or Howard Johnson in 1986?
Most of us agreed that Francisco and Rauch were weak replacements for KRod and Izzy, and they have indeed been, despite Francisco’s overall decent record. These guys just have never been great, and each of them has been asked to be more than they ever have been: Francisco has never been a very good full-time closer, and Rauch has not been a very good full-time anything in the last five years. Alderson had to do something, we weren’t signing Papelbon, apparently no one else thought all that much of Madson, so Sandy rolled the dice on these two guys, and also obtained Ramirez, who was pretty damn good the last few years. And who can blame anyone for thinking that one day Parnell would finally become unhittable? No, he has never been that good dating back to college, but it’s hard not to look at him and wonder if it won’t all come together sometime soon.
Murphy is what he is. A marginal player who has good streaks of hitting singles and doubles and does absolutely nothing else. Yes, he fools the fan who forgets that defense is a huge part of the game, but Murph really has been very, very mediocre in 2012. No homers, no speed, and pretty terrible fielding overall—yes, maybe better at some aspects of 2B than expected, but still very poor overall. Ike? Impossible to evaluate. Could be Valley Fever, could be the injury and/or the layoff, could be some of each, but the time is approaching to send him to Buffalo to get his mojo back if that is even still within reach. Duda can play first, as he is a very mediocre right fielder, and having Torres and Kirk play every day really gives the team the extra athleticism it so sorely needs.
Niese and Gee? They are not too good and not too bad. If Dickey and Johan can continue as they have been thus far, as an ace and a good ex-ace, we can survive with this rotation, as we are going to have Harvey next April and probably Wheeler sometime next year as well. If Wheeler continues his development at this pace, he could be our number 1 or 2 in just over a year.
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So what to think?
The next twelve games are more brutality, with TB, CIN, BAL, and the Yanks. But if the Mets can somehow manage a 5-7 record, they will emerge from the 22-game death march at 37-36 with nine of the next thirteen before the break with the Cubs and Phils (and four with the Dodgers), but it gets much harder again right after the break with the Braves, Nats, Dodgers and Nats comprising the first twelve in the second half.
Recent years—really all the way back to 2007—have given the Mets a well-deserved reputation as a team that consistently folds in the second half. We all remember 2007 and 2008, but the 2009 team was 37-34 on June 25 and a half game out. They finished the year 70-92. In 2010 they were 47-37 and 2 games out on July 6, and finished 79-83. Last year? 11.5 out on July 29, but a very respectable 55-51 before going 5-17 on the way to a 77-85 finish.
This recent history, combined with the painful reminder of a historic payroll cut and losing Reyes, Beltran, and KRod, should suggest that a .500 finish this year would be a gargantuan step forward for this team.
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There’s been some revisionism regarding “Omar’s guys” but really, aside from the wonderful Omar legacy of Dickey, there’s not much to crow about. Among the group of Niese, Gee, Parnell, Thole, Ike, Murphy, Tejada, Duda, and Kirk are surely some good major leaguers; some starters who can be parts of a successful team—but thus far, not even close to one star among them. And Bay’s obscene salary could have given us another reliever or two, a good backup catcher, and more in-season flexibility. And while Johan is still good and the no-hitter was blissful, the team has paid him about 36 million for three wins since 2010. A little unfair? Maybe. But it’s hard to justify his salary.
Hopefully Wheeler will be the first true new standout in the next great Met lineup, alongside Wright and Dickey.
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Thus far, each time it seemed as though the wheels really were ready to come off, the team has reeled off a few wins and kept the vultures at bay. Despite the recent swoon, let’s remember this was against Davey’s excellent Nats and the Bank of the Bronx. These are tough opponents.
Yes, things continue to be difficult, but as John Blutarsky once said, “When the going gets tough…”
Aside from the Friday blowout, the other five recent losses have been by a total of seven runs. They have not been getting blown out, aside from Johan’s usual Bronx bomb.
So hope remains alive. Not heavily fortified, not well-funded, not a deep army of hope with endless reserves, but a hope that is indeed vibrant and real. A hope that is kept alive by a group of young players who do seem to be a generation removed from the laissez faire country club at Chez Manuel and who do seem willing to take pitches, draw walks, play until the final out, and truly care about the results, win or lose. A team that with very few exceptions, has come right back from the toughest defeats and the lowest lows to get back on the winning track.
The next few weeks are going to show what this team is made of, for sure. Four more very tough series await, and four even tougher ones right after the break.
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Will this group fold like ancient beach chairs in late summer, or will they fight their way to a .500 record?
That remains to be seen, but at this point the feeling remains, and remains quite strong, that the reasonable fan has to be happy with what they have seen on the field.
No, they do not have to like the payroll shrinkage that dwarfs even George Constanza’s time in the pool, no they do not have to approve of Francisco, Rauch, Ramirez, and Torres, and no, they do not have to like the meager depth this team has shown, especially at the pitcher and catcher positions.
But it just is not fair to blame the current players for Wilpon-dictated financial decisions or to blame Terry Collins for having to choose between Jon Rauch and Bobby Parnell in a key spot.
The feeling here is that right now it is still reasonable to appreciate what has been a largely enjoyable and surprising season whose ultimate outcome remains utterly undecided.
A collapse which lands this team well under .500 and in last place would be horribly deflating, but a few more good ten-game stretches which keep the Mets safely above .500 and on the fringes of the playoff race into September would give the players and the fan base a huge boost for the future, and might finally slay some of the ghosts of the failures of the last five seasons.
While the latter result is far from certain, it is certainly a possibility. And one which—along with continued hustle and effort from the players—will keep this fan watching and hoping.
40 comments
Sylow59
6/11/2012-11:05pm at 11:05 pm (UTC -4)
Test
Sylow59
6/11/2012-11:16pm at 11:16 pm (UTC -4)
Success!!
—-
Nicely done
—–
Notice anything about the Omar guys? All are above average offensively, defensively average at best, and LEFTIES. Duda, Murphy, Thole, Kirk, dD, Havens, Valdy, FMart .. And all non-internationals are older rookies. Ike somewhat breaks the mold, but not by a wide margin. I’ve wondered if Omar was developing trade bait more than a farm system to feed the big club.
Regardless SA needs to spend some time balancing the handedness of the lineup.
Stick
6/11/2012-11:21pm at 11:21 pm (UTC -4)
interesting concept. I think the older (college) guys was as much to get help quicker, but help can come in the form of tradeable commodities (something that some people tend to overlook when discussing the farm. it isn’t all about just having home grown rosters)
lack of D? probable a combination of not putting a premium on it, and being able to get good backs lower down (and cheaper) since they were 1-dimensional. But I assume the lefty angle was more accident (those happened to be the best guys, and the ones that stayed healthy and developed).
Sylow59
6/12/2012-12:31am at 12:31 am (UTC -4)
I broke my hand in a freak grilling accident, which is this year’s reminder that im not handy (no pun intended).
dD and Kirk are very good defensively. I should have been a tad more precise on my maiden voyage here.
Regarding the handedness: lefties make up about 20% of the players. Given the lopsided nature of the upper farm it seems they were targeting lefties in the draft.
I agree about using the farm as trade bait. The trick is having enough to feed the big club and for trades (and of course keeping the good ones and trading the not as good ones ).
kingman 26
6/11/2012-11:24pm at 11:24 pm (UTC -4)
Welcome Sylow!
Thanks for checking us out!
Stick’s one of the excellent stalwarts here.
Even if he does think Duda is a cross between Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and the young Brad Pitt.
Stick
6/11/2012-11:37pm at 11:37 pm (UTC -4)
Oh stop. I never said anything about Pitt.
Mr North Jersey
6/12/2012-12:29am at 12:29 am (UTC -4)
Ha!
NJstuckinTX
6/11/2012-11:15pm at 11:15 pm (UTC -4)
Another solid post. Paints the picture clean and clear. Much needs to be done and I do hope that Alderson sticks with the long term fixes and sells off some flotsam should the opportunity arise. Unfortunately all the players that we would want to see sold off (Rauch, Bay, Murphy, FFF, etc.) have all sucked and have hurt themselves in trade value.
Stick
6/11/2012-11:24pm at 11:24 pm (UTC -4)
no real reason to trade off a bunch of guys that might help you win a few more games if the return is just more grade C filler. Sure, if you can turn murphy + franky into another wheeler, do it, but if you are getting another schwinden, why bother?
besides, they actually have too many prospects at the moment (at least too many that have to be on the 40 man) so at some point they will actually have to trade (either for younger prospects, or 2/3-1 to get better, like the Nats did with Gio).
NJStuckinTX
6/12/2012-7:41am at 7:41 am (UTC -4)
Oh, I still feel that this team needs to purge itself of the abundance of OK to good players that fill up the 40 man. Maybe you add Valdespin, Parnell and some others to the list I have above. If any of a combination of those can net a better player, do it.
And it’s not that I particularly want any of those guys traded (other than Bay), I do feel that their best value to the team would be to help as trade chips. We all root for Murph, but facing the facts, he’s not good in the field or on the bases and without any pop in the bat, he’s not what this team needs. And that’s just Murph. You still have question marks at 1B, LF, CF (kinda), and C. Thole seems like Munson, compared to Nickeas, but Munson he is not.
So I certainly agree that this team needs to trade away players (even if it is to get higher ceiling, lower A ball type players and free space for some of the players who will be up for the 40 man soon) and as Gate mentioned below, getting over .500 or ending up just below it really doesn’t matter at the end of the day. If the moves continue to right the ship, I’m all for them.
This team is both exciting and infuriating all at the same time. You know they are going to get a hit to tie the game, and then you subsequently know someone is going to make an error for the other team to win. As such, I’ve no problem if this team becomes sellers.
kingman 26
6/11/2012-11:25pm at 11:25 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks again for trodding through my verbosity NJ.
Stick
6/11/2012-11:36pm at 11:36 pm (UTC -4)
I told you it was a smart move to take the pay by the word option instead of a salary!
Good piece though.
Stick
6/11/2012-11:35pm at 11:35 pm (UTC -4)
If they want to stay in the race (at least in the .500+ fringe area!) and have a shot for a hot September, they are going to need a couple of the MiL arms for the pen to hit, and for something to improve with the D.
Tejada coming back would certainly help. And I really think they need to upgrade it at 2B, but unfortunately the only guy who might do it isn’t hitting yet in AA (Reese). Spin? No.
and if nothing else, having Bay back is killing them. Besides the worthless bat, seems to suck the life/hustle/etc. out of them.
Can they find useful pen help mid-season? Always tough to do, but we shall see.
gategem
6/12/2012-12:41am at 12:41 am (UTC -4)
I had to temporarily halt reading this article until I was successfully able to accompany my reading with the song “Stout Hearted Men.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vjqfvZVReM
gategem
6/12/2012-12:52am at 12:52 am (UTC -4)
BTW I also found the perfect song for some of the people at MMO:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyHNlfT6B9E&feature=related
darknova306
6/12/2012-12:56am at 12:56 am (UTC -4)
Wow, I came over looking to read any new comments in the other threads and go back to listening to Vin Scully call this Dodgers game, and instead find another fine Kingman tome.. I mean article.
Very nice article, Kong. It’s hard to argue with any of it. Expecting the team to lose 80-100 games, even to me, seemed to be pretty ridiculous. I can only think of a small handful of games where they even seemed to hint at ‘mailing it in’, and those were mostly blowouts. The way the team looks on the field and in the dugout, they give you the feeling that they’re laying a really nice foundation for the years to come. If nothing else, they’ve been a very fun team to watch. Anytime I say to myself “this team is done” or “ugh, game over, time for hard liquor”, they shock the hell out of me and make me eat my words.
And I would challenge the idea that the team’s depth has been ‘meager’ (though the catching depth has been down right horrendous). Despite the team’s annual “are you serious?!?” set of injuries, a bunch of the guys they’ve brought up have contributed to wins, if even just briefly. Even Hefner, when considered as being as low on the depth chart as he started, wasn’t really bad. Q and Veldespin have contributed with big hits, and started costing games as they were forced to play more than a “depth, emergency backup” role.
Also, I really want this to not go un-commented for more than a week… but, let’s not dismiss how damn lucky the Mets have been with Santana. I know the prevailing mentality with Mets fans (not saying you, Kong, just in general) has been that the team is jinxed and unlucky and ‘whos is us’. Finally, a gigantic question mark for the Mets’ season has turned into a resounding positive!!! Santana has made 12 starts so far with a 2.96 ERA (despite 2 horrible outings) and a freaking no-hitter! This is another major reason why the Mets are still over .500, and Mets fans should understand just how lucky they are because of this. Also, Dickey looks like a man possessed this season. As you alluded to in the article, Dickey is the ace and Santana is the ex-ace that is still pitching really damn well.
So yeah, this team has been awesome to watch so far this season. I can’t wait to walk down to the Hall of Fame once they get their Santana no-hitter exhibit setup and grab some pictures. It’s still hard to expect them to grab a wild card spot, but at this point .500 wouldn’t surprise me, and would be awesome to see. This season is looking like a nice step toward the future.
NJstuckinTX
6/12/2012-8:59am at 8:59 am (UTC -4)
Nova, knowing how well Santana is pitching and if you had a suitor that would net you a Wheeler type + another prospect or two (for giggles sake, say Travis D’Anaud (spelling?), another blue chipper and a lower level prospect), would you trade him? This is keeping in mind you want to extend Wright, have Gen K2 on the way and have many holes to fill down the road.
And if Sandy did that, would MMO implode?
oleosmirf
6/12/2012-9:08am at 9:08 am (UTC -4)
if the Cincinnati Reds offered Billy Hamilton, Devin Mesaraco and whichever one of Bailey or Leake that would have their spot taken, I’d move him in a second.
O well, it’s nice to dream once and a while…
NJstuckinTX
6/12/2012-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
Dreaming can certainly be fun.
And only reason I bring it up is that is about the only viable way to clear room for flexibility. Bay is going to be completely a drain until that contract is done. maybe you save 400K if you DFA and someone desperate picks him up. Wright has to be extended. They lack offensive depth and he might be about the only right hand hitting player in the organization, it feels like. So other than clearing out some flotsam, which will be used up to bring in new blood for the BP, backup catcher, bench depth, etc., there is either the option of increased payroll, or relieving the top-heaviness of the team. Well, promoting the kids who then play like a young Gooden would be a plus too!
Not saying they need a ton of $$$ flexibility, but having an extra 10 million this past year would have given a better option in the BP or 2 and better backup catcher in the least. I still think Alderson did a fine job, considering the circumstances.
Stick
6/12/2012-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
interesting. and again, depends on where they are sitting in the standings. If they fall to 10 out in mid-July 9from the WC) then what the hell. But, if they are still within a couple, much harder call.
But, even with the no-no, for D’arnaud+ (or some such big leap forward) I would do it.
correct though if they are right in the hunt some parts of the blogsphere will go ballistic if they do trade him!
But, adding a guy like that right now, with Thole then becoming a back up, is certainly intriguing.
Stick
6/12/2012-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
oh, and would be bitter sweet if they combined it with say calling up Wheeler to take his spot!
darknova306
6/12/2012-11:38am at 11:38 am (UTC -4)
NJ, if someone was willing to trade a nice package like that for Johan, thereby freeing up money to extend Wright (if he continues to be elite all season, otherwise I let him walk) then I do it in a heartbeat. Especially if it involves a top catching prospect and a major league arm.
The sadistic part of me wants to see this happen mainly to see how the MMO Core implodes and creates a black hole of vitriolic nonsense.
gategem
6/12/2012-2:27am at 2:27 am (UTC -4)
I view this season as a chance to evaluate some of the kids, most of them one dimensional in talent but with a couple that inspire confidence for the future, while waiting for the better talent to progress through the system and the Wilpons finances to improve. Presently, there are a few elite players that may still be with the team when the young Calvary arrives but they may no longer be at their peak. The rest are pickups to fill in and they have slim chance of being with the team in the future. This is a transitional period and trades will occur that will also shape the team for the future. So whether they play .500 ball or are ten games below .500 the record will actually have little impact on the team we will see in a few years. From a fan viewpoint we root the team on to play .500 or better and give us entertaining baseball. However, from a long range view it is irrelevant.
NJStuckinTX
6/12/2012-7:42am at 7:42 am (UTC -4)
Well said.
srt
6/12/2012-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
Agree.
apagano
6/12/2012-8:14am at 8:14 am (UTC -4)
Right on, kingman!
I’m tired of hearing “Sandy has nothing to improve the team” from fans who somehow expected him to add 13 wins while having his budget slashed by $50M. The mere fact that the Mets are not worse than last year is a credit to Alderson.
I suspect that this June gauntlet will end with the Mets’ record more in line with their run differential. What I’m hoping to see is a team that continues to battle every night and can stay within a stone’s throw of .500.
kingman 26
6/12/2012-8:34am at 8:34 am (UTC -4)
Thanks Apagano and welcome!
Hope you like it here and give this place a try.
Very glad to have you here as well.
Prismo
6/12/2012-9:25am at 9:25 am (UTC -4)
I truly appreciate your writing this piece Kingman, because now the Mets are CERTAIN to win ~5 games in a row (as you alluded in your fifth…section)! That’s how the season’s gone so far, anyway.
Last night on Twitter I asked Hojo whether he thought the defense or the the bullpen would be the greather hurdle for the team the rest of the season. His answer? “both…”
You mention the starting pitching and I’m right with you – if we can get Harvey and Wheeler both up next season, this can be one heck of a rotation. Guys like Beato and Mejia (if they pitch well, never assume anything like that) could be huge parts of the bullpen going forward.
The defense though…I just don’t know. When is Tejada coming back to make SS better? And WHO can play 2B in this organization? It’s not Murphy, Valdespin hasn’t inspired much confidence, Havens can’t stay on the field and hit at the same time. And if Ike is appropriately sent down, can Duda or otherwise man first base and dig out Wright’s terrible throws?
I do think we’re alright in the outfield, especially with a great defender in Dekker now promoted to AAA. And catcher…I guess Thole could be worse?
oleosmirf
6/12/2012-9:38am at 9:38 am (UTC -4)
In regards to 2B, the Mets just starting playing Flores there and that would be huge if he can stick there.
As of now, I think you platoon Q and Cedeno (once he comes back) and move Murphy to the bench where he can be a super sub and primary LH bat off the bench.
I’m really hoping Murph can start hitting again, b/c a team like the Indians, White Sox or Dodgers could find him very useful over at the corners and coming off the bench in their playoff push
Stick
6/12/2012-9:51am at 9:51 am (UTC -4)
oh, Flores sticking at 2B and actually being acceptable defensively would be huge. My new MiL fantasy! I am over murphy and am not at all excited by w3hat I have seen out of Valdy so far.
trading Murphy is fine, but I actually have no problem with him as a bench/spot starter type. he has done OK it seems as a PH.
Prismo
6/12/2012-9:51am at 9:51 am (UTC -4)
I wouldn’t have expected you to look this up, but Flores made 20 errors last year at SS (26 in 2010 at SS). They tried him at 3B for 57 games this season and he already has 8 errors.
Of course errors aren’t the end-all be-all of defensive metrics these days, but when you’re makign that many so consistently something is up with your defense.
Not so sure Flores is the future answer…
Stick
6/12/2012-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
ah, just #s. Didn’t Jeter make a lot in the minors? and tejada?
j/k there. sort of. not having ever seen him play, I can’t judge. are these grounders? Throwing? experience?
but what the hell, he becomes exponentially more valuable if he play an adequate 2B vs. the same at 3B. And they don’t need more guys lumbering around in the OF. I want some speed out there if possible.
I wonder how he did int he winter? He played I think 19 games in the Dominican winter league at 2B. No clue if that was his first time ever? But I always thought that if you are experienced and know how to play SS, that 2B should not be a hard transition.
Prismo
6/12/2012-10:01am at 10:01 am (UTC -4)
Wow I stand VERY much corrected. Kudos to you.
Jeter made 57 errors at SS one year in single A. HOLY CRAPOLI. His last season in the minors at AAA he made 29 errors at SS.
I am wrong! Maybe Flores has a shot.
oleosmirf
6/12/2012-10:03am at 10:03 am (UTC -4)
he’s also only 20 years old and probably wont be here until the middle of 2014 so you would think he would only improve, unlike guys like Murphy and Duda (sorry) who are a lost cause defensively…
srt
6/12/2012-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
Flores at 2nd base…..intriguing idea indeed.
I think many of us Met fans have given up on every seeing Havens take over that position.
srt
6/12/2012-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
Great read, Kingman – as usual. One I largely agree with.
‘Will this group fold like ancient beach chairs in late summer, or will they fight their way to a .500 record?
That remains to be seen, but at this point the feeling remains, and remains quite strong, that the reasonable fan has to be happy with what they have seen on the field.’
************************
Well said. I don’t have a crystal ball. Don’t know how this season will play out. As I’ve said before, given the fact that we were predicted to finish under .500 and in the cellar (which might very well be the outcome), everything over that is just gravy. For now, I’m enjoying the heck out of the team and will continue to, no matter how this plays out.
In the infamous words of Johan:
‘Yeah, Baby. Believe It!’
Prismo
6/12/2012-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
A big smile comes to my face whenever I see that Johan quote!
kingman 26
6/12/2012-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
An even bigger smile comes across Johan’s face each time he sees his paycheck–12 million per win since 2010–even Ollie and Pedro would be impressed!
Thanks for reading you two; as always, really appreciate it.
Wendy
6/12/2012-6:15pm at 6:15 pm (UTC -4)
Great job, hey its Wendy (aka isupporttheplayers/DW5JR7), etc from Metsblog, thanks for welcoming me to the community.
NJstuckinTX
6/12/2012-8:12pm at 8:12 pm (UTC -4)
Welcome to the Party!