The Mets have a realistic chance of playing meaningful games into September. Here are 10 players key to this season and next seasons success in order of importance
1. David Wright, 3B: He is the Mets offense. The Mets need to re-sign him and build the lineup around him, because he is their only all-star caliber hitter. It’s scary to think what the lineup would look like without him, and there is no help in sight from the minors or free agency.
2. Johan Santana, SP: He and Dickey are very close. Johan still makes it above Dickey because of the clutch pitching and dominance Santana has shown and the knowledge that as long as he is not injured, he will do whatever it takes to get the job done.
3. R.A. Dickey, SP: What can you say about Dickey? He has progressively gotten better and is now to a point where he is dominant. It’s exciting to think what his encore will be going forward. Combined with Santana, the Mets have one of the more formidable top pitching rotations in baseball.
4. Ike Davis, 1B: Davis is all the way up at number four because of the potential he has to be a great hitter that can be a force in the middle of the order. He is an excellent defensive player, and if he can put together a .370 OBP with 25-30 HR, he will give an enormous boost to the lineup. If he continues to play at the level he has most of this year, I can’t see the Mets having a very successful offense.
5. Matt Harvey, SP: Harvey has proven nothing, however he has the potential as soon as the end of this year to be an above average pitcher, eventually progressing to a top of the rotation starter. Harvey has started to pitch quite well at Triple-A, not quite dominating, but he has a 3.87 ERA, a strikeout per inning and a .240 BA against. Harvey is a key to the future of the Mets success, but he can have a big impact as early as this year.
6. Jon Niese, SP: Niese has improved in almost every important pitching category this season, improving his WHIP, ERA, SO/9, H/9. His key to success is being able to pitch longer into games and not getting injured. Hopefully, Niese along with Harvey, Dickey and Santana will be able to carry the Mets team.
7. Jenry Mejia, RP: Now that Mejia is in his rightful place in the bullpen he will most certainly be up later this year. Hopefully he can stabilize what has been a terrible bullpen. He has the ability to close, pitch multiple innings, and has the stuff to be a stopper late in games.
8. Lucas Duda, 1B: Besides the top 3 in this list, Duda might be the most consistent. Duda will probably be around a .270 hitter with 25 doubles, 25 home runs and a run producer from the four or five spot in the lineup. Some consistent production is what the Mets need with all the wildcards on the team.
9. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF: A good all around player. If he can keep his average up around .290, he will be a great top of the order player who can do a little of everything. He strikes out too often but it has not let affect him to this point in his professional career. His versatility on defense and varied skills make him an important player going forward.
10. Daniel Murphy, 2B: I’m not sure anyone knows what Murphy is or will be. He is a solid hitter who hits a lot of doubles but plays bad defense. For him to be a positive force on the team he needs to hit over .300 with a higher than .350 OBP, otherwise his hitting is mitigated by lack of power and defense.
Honorable Mention: Ruben Tejada, SS, Jeurys Familia, SP/RP, Jason Bay, OF,
Tejada just needs to be an average hitter to make a positive impact because of the lack of quality players at shortstop these days. There is no way to know what Familia is going to be. He could be a dominating reliever or an awful starter who can never find the zone. His inconsistency and lack of definite position is why he is not higher on the list. Between injuries and with no improvement in sight, Jason Bay is an honorable mention because of the 1% chance he returns to be the player he was, once upon a time.
The Mets success this year and next, hinges on these players living up to or exceeding expectations. There are a lot of question marks, but hopefully they can lead the Mets to the playoffs.
37 comments
NJstuckinTX
6/20/2012-8:53am at 8:53 am (UTC -4)
Seeing how you mention this year and then subsequent years I can see why you chose who you did, but I would certainly say for the “years to come part” I notice a lack of Wheeler. He’ll be more important to this team than Harvey. Much more so than Familia as well.
Bay… He’s not on the Radar, nor the map, nor the globe in terms of future plans with the Mets other than “what prospect can i get for him if I pay his entire salaray” and that’s if he ever plays again. Get well soon buddy.
And I’d probably have Spin on the list more than Mejia at this point, but you could be right. If Mejia comes in a helps settle down a shaky pen, that could be just what the doctor ordered.
Daniel Stein-Sayles
6/20/2012-8:58am at 8:58 am (UTC -4)
Agree on Wheeler but I was more focusing on just this year and next, I just don’t see Wheeler having an impact until maybe late next year.
kingman 26
6/20/2012-9:15am at 9:15 am (UTC -4)
Cannot see how Young is not near the top of this list, at least as 2012 is concerned.
To me, he and Niese are the keys.
If Young gets hurt and/or Niese pulls his annual 2nd half disappearing act, the team is done.
Murphy? Eh. Reality is setting in regarding this mediocre, dramatically overrated player.
Bay? First off, he’s possibly done for the year, and secondly, there’s not even .000001% chance he ever again becomes the PED-enhanced player he almost certainly once was.
I think Dickey, Johan, Young, Niese, Wright are clearly the top five.
Maybe Duda, Ike, Francisco the next three.
The team is 3rd in the NL in runs, so offense is not an issue.
Starting pitching is everything–everything–for this team, present and future.
NJstuckinTX
6/20/2012-9:22am at 9:22 am (UTC -4)
Taking the context of this AND next year, Young isn’t as important as some of the others. For this year certainly he is a main cog. Going into next year, not so certain.
But indeed, pitching pitching pitching. Hopefully Beato & Mejia and that other lefty that is pretty lights out can come up and help and quickly.
Stick
6/20/2012-9:23am at 9:23 am (UTC -4)
reinforcing the pen for a change would be nice to see.
Stick
6/20/2012-9:23am at 9:23 am (UTC -4)
to the roids point, add the Galvis kid from Philly.
all winter/spring, the philly papers had articles about how he was hitting the ball harder, had addeda bunch of strength in the last year, etc.
Well, we may just have found out where that new found muscles came from!
as to your other points, outside of bone crushing injuries to the key positional guys, SP holding together is going to be the key. The pen is what it is, and they seem to be cycling in reinforcements. Combined with regression to norms, the pen should eb OK, not great but get the job done.
Of course, if the SP can keep doing the job, it lowers the need for pen innings, always a good thing.
so, I will add 1-2 guys stepping up (coming out of nowhere) to take some starts as being another key.
srt
6/20/2012-9:30am at 9:30 am (UTC -4)
Not much I’d disagree with on this list.
I too see Harvey as more a number 2 or 3 type SP. Think Wheeler will be higher but he’s probably a year away right now.
So you think Mejia will remain in the BP? No shot as a starter next year? I think I see Familia as more of a lock for the BP at this point than Mejia.
To me Murph is the big question mark. Just not seeing who takes over the spot in the near future unless some are counting on Valdespin. I just don’t see Spin as ready for that.
Stick
6/20/2012-9:41am at 9:41 am (UTC -4)
Mejia I think should be given more time as a SP (for next year), but would not surprise me if he stays in the pen. I really think Familia will end up there too.
But, if they can get other guys (Wheeler/harvey/mchugh from the system, and maybe someone from outside) to be good to very good SPs, then having some other live arms anchoring the pen is not a bad thing!
Joe Gomes
6/20/2012-9:35am at 9:35 am (UTC -4)
How about addressing the other borderline Mets players?
Tell us what you think Thole / Nikreis are? I see them no better than backups.
Gee? what is his future with this team?
What can the Mets do to balance this heavy LH lineup?
Stick
6/20/2012-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)
well, every team pretty much has a few weak links. And especially during the season, you can’t address them all.
Thole is OK, not great, but servicable. I agree that Nickeas is a waste, but your only real option is Johnson coming back.
Gee? I actually like him. He is a solid 4/5 SP, and if the good fortune happens and someone like Harvey or Wheeler comes up for the rotation (and they are good), Gee cna always go into the pen as a swing man/spot starter. Kind of like what Kendrik did onthe Phils.
at least that way, if you need a 6th SP for a fill-in, or a SP gets an early shower, you are covered (and no need to go to the minors to make a roster move for a spot start).
oleosmirf
6/20/2012-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
the way I see it, Jordany Valdespin should be getting more AB at 2B, especially since Cedeno and Tejada are playing minor league games. Valdespin has a terrible approach to PH (despite the two HR), but is batting .300 as a starter (only 8 games)
Let the kid play and relegate Murphy to the primary LH pinch hitter, until the next roster move is needed.
Stick
6/20/2012-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
Valdy is an interesting case. I kind of would like to see what he could do with regular PT at one position.
Combine that with the bloom being well off the wild Irish rose (see that play on words there?) and I consider 2B to be wide open.
oleosmirf
6/20/2012-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
It makes no sense for him to be in the OF, when he is capable of playing 2B. He doesn’t have the power for the corners and he doesn’t have the mind for CF.
He has range, athleticism and while he might be mentally inept, our current 2B is the worst player at that position in the game and Valdespin has been hot lately.
I want Valdespin starting at 2B every single game a RHP is on the mound, until someone else becomes a better option.
Stick
6/20/2012-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
I would like to throw 1 more name out there (especially factoring in next season).
Mr. Den Dekker.
He is still hitting for a lot of power in AAA. So it is entirely possible we see him at some point, even this year.
Torres is pretty much a waste of space, and can’t hit RHP at all.
so, could they go for youth and D, with DD in CF, kirk in LF and Hairston splitting time with them vs. LHSP?
torres could be the 5th OF (only hitting RH) to balance out the L/R mix, but it would be nice to see a better bat for that.
DD and Kirk in left and center could help shade a bit given Duda a little less ground to cover, and should certainly help out the fly ball pitchers. And think of all th ehighlight reel catches those 2 can pull off!
oleosmirf
6/20/2012-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
I am going with the impression that the Mets will have many enough money, but are not likely to add multiple players. I think we will see Rauch and possibly Ramirez replaced by someone better and to see the Mets sign a FA catcher like Miguel Montero.(who I think is a perfect fit btw)
Something along the lines of:
Montero, Davis, Valdespin, Tejada, Wright, Duda, Den Dekker, Kirk, Thole, Murphy, Turner, Hairston, Baxter
Stick
6/20/2012-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
will be interesting to see how they approach next season. I also think they aren’t likely to spend a ton (not on any one expensive guy), but will continue building around the newer core.
Extending Wright and Dickey is certainly possible, but again, that really does not impact next year if it involves picking up the options and adding some years.
Just not seeing a big $$ FA that makes sense, but honestly I have not looked that closely at the list.
so, I expect them to to reinvest some more in their own guys (like they did with Neise), and spend so mid-level money on ST guys (like they did with the pen, just hopefully with better results!)
getting a better catcher would be worth spending some FA $$ on. Maybe a SP? and of course, never know about the pen.
position guys, outside of C, they won’t be spending on.
Prismo
6/20/2012-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
Maybe I’m just a corny SOB, but I think pretty much everyone on the roster is super important! Where would be this year without guys like Quintanilla and Hairston who certainly wouldn’t make anyone’s top 10 list? Or how about some middle relievers – if a couple of the guys like Ramirez and Rauch had merely performed average so far, this team might have a few more wins. Baseball really is a team game, and while of course the success of Dickey is going to bring more wins than the success of a bench player, in order to make the playoffs you need more than just a few players to perform well.
srt
6/20/2012-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
Speaking of Omar Q…….he’s out of options. They attempt to send him down, you know he’s going to be claimed. Especially in light of the numerous injuries in this league.
Stick
6/20/2012-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
I like him better than Cedeno. So if you are going to lose one of them, let it be Ronny.
wonder if they can trade him?
let’s see, who is coming back? Tejada and Cedeno?
Rotino is going to be the first casualty I guess. After that, maybe Valdy, or you are going to have to DFA Cedeno or Omar to keep him up. You really don’t want both of them at the same time.
NJstuckinTX
6/20/2012-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
Cedeno is on a Major League contract, right? So you could just stash him in the minors, right? or am I off base?
Stick
6/20/2012-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
Like Q, he can only be sent down if he has options remaining, and I doubt Cedeno does. so they would have to put him through waivers 9and have him accept) to get down to the minors.
NJstuckinTX
6/20/2012-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
Does Murphy have options?
Stick
6/20/2012-3:00pm at 3:00 pm (UTC -4)
you know, he just might…
srt
6/20/2012-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
OT:
Stories starting to emerge with the league taking the Mets seriously. This from Rich Coutinho at CBS sports:
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2012/06/20/coutinho-mets-aces-santana-dickey-blazing-trail-to-october/
‘The way these guys are pitching, Mets fans can start using the “P” word — playoffs — because this team is a bona fide contender.’
‘Don’t believe me? Well, I asked around the league, calling scouts and talking to opposing hitters like Chipper Jones, Carlos Beltran and Jimmy Rollins. All of the above concur that the experts underrated New York. They credited both Terry Collins and the two horses at the top of the rotation as the reason the Mets might just surprise some people.’
Stick
6/20/2012-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
you are what your record says you are! At least I feel proud, having been trumpeting the “don’t sleep on this team” idea since back in ST.
I posted some #s after teh dickey start for Knog, but really, the NL is full of a whole lotta mediocre and flawed teams. Some better than others, and as always a couple will catch fire in the 2nd half or down the stretch. But right now, the mets are as viable as most of them.
at that point, outside of the division leaders, there were only 4 NL teams more than 1 game over .500. And the Mets are the most over i think (or 1 game behind SF)
srt
6/20/2012-1:35pm at 1:35 pm (UTC -4)
Every team is flawed in the NL east right now.
- Nats have some great pitching but like us, a little light on hitting right now.
- Braves just lost Beachy. Their SP is in trouble.
- Marlins can’t seem to get out of their own way – no matter what Loria was trying to say today (or was it yesterday)?
- Phills – just put a fork in them, they’re done. I truly believe this is the one team in the NL east you can count out right now.
We know what our holes are…..
NJstuckinTX
6/20/2012-1:49pm at 1:49 pm (UTC -4)
It’s almost like a perfect storm brewing here. Braves are flailing big time. Marlins I’m not sure what to make of. The Nats scare me, but aren’t pulling away and as you said, the Phils are toast. Who even knows if Howard comes back or even Utley.
Stick
6/20/2012-3:03pm at 3:03 pm (UTC -4)
well, I am not counting out the Phils until they are mathmatically eliminated.
Utley is going to be back (barring a relapse and return to the DL) by 7/2. howard, no real timeline, but probably end July at the earliest. And halladay late July.
what any of these guys give them remains to be seen (especially the bats). But i stil want to see them a few more GBs!
Prismo
6/20/2012-3:37pm at 3:37 pm (UTC -4)
Stick, we should know by the end of July, AKA the non-waiver trading deadline. If the Phillies unload anyone, I think we can say “it’s over.”
Stick
6/20/2012-4:13pm at 4:13 pm (UTC -4)
interesting thing is that in the last few days, there have been a slew of articles in the Philly paper about this (buyers/sellers, in/out).
Waiting for the DL guys to come back first seems to be a big unknown of course. As is the record a month from now.
but IMO they aren’t selling no matter what. certainly not anything useful, and only then if they really fade horribly.
I would be shocked if Hamels or pence say gets traded.
Thome, I think they trade him!
kingman 26
6/20/2012-1:11pm at 1:11 pm (UTC -4)
Haha on Chipper and Rollins.
Sorry but those two are among the classiest and most worthy opponents and Met-killers ever.
Classy, cool guys.
srt
6/20/2012-1:35pm at 1:35 pm (UTC -4)
I’ll agree on Chipper.
Classy and Rollins should never be used in the same sentence.
Prismo
6/20/2012-1:52pm at 1:52 pm (UTC -4)
+1
kingman 26
6/20/2012-5:12pm at 5:12 pm (UTC -4)
Nah, sorry…I probably told you this before, but a game I was at in 2007 or 2008 at Shea had Rollins warming up near the fans, smiling at the funnier barbs he was receiving, and just acting like a guy who appreciated his lot in life, could take a LOT of razzing, and had a sense of humor to boot.
I just cannot hate the individual.
To paraphrase, hate the team, not the player.
And Victorino is a family man and VERY charitable with toy drives for kids as I have learned in his hometown of Las Vegas.
gategem
6/20/2012-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
Daniel, nice article.
I predict that every Mets player in the majors, minors and those yet to be signed will ascend to the level of Ruth and Gehrig. Ten years from now after the Mets have won their tenth consecutive World Series, winning from 130 to 140 games each season we will all be as jaded as Yankees fans.
I’ve never seen a fan base on such a roller coaster ride. Win two games and the world is not enough. Lose two games and everyone is popping Paxil.
Every fan base can point to players they believe have the potential to be outstanding players. Unfortunately, so few live up to their expectations that generally are set too high by the fans anyway.
As far as this year is concerned I’d prefer to wait until August before I get too excited about the team’s prospects. As for the future Sandy is still enacting whatever he and his staff have decided their long range plans will be. Presently the situation is too dynamic, too fluid to make projections so I’ll just enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts.
And forget about grit, determination and all the rest of the bs. Dickey is the ace of this staff.
I’m thoroughly enjoying this season. It has been so much better than I initially thought.
mattcerrone
6/20/2012-2:28pm at 2:28 pm (UTC -4)
Let’s not froget Kazmir or Millage. They are top prospects and will go a long way to propellering the Mets to the top one day hopingly.
Ky
6/20/2012-4:14pm at 4:14 pm (UTC -4)
I think MDD and wheeler will play a big role next year.