Still <3 u Murph.
Daniel Murphy has always been a bit of a perplexing figure to Mets fans, as he has never really been able to settle into a position, but his bat was too good to pass up.
To the naked eye, it appears as though Murphy has been in a slump the last few weeks. He has struggled to make contact and continue to hit for a high average, which is what most people believe is Murph’s source of value.
Would you believe me if I told you he has been bad all season?
What if I told you the only position player to hurt the Mets more this season were Ike Davis and Mike Nickeas?
According to Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Murphy has taken 0.3 wins away from the Mets this season, equaling Jason Bay’s damage to the team. This doesn’t mean that his bat must be the culprit however, as most can agree he is a pretty awful defensive second baseman.
Looking a little closer at his batting statistics, his wRC+ (see explained here) stands at 84. That number puts his offensive abilities below Jamey Carroll and Darwin Barney. This factor combines with his abysmal -18.6 UZR/150 (see stat explained here, which although comes in a small sample size, is still really awful and is supported by the eye test), causes me quite a bit of concern for Murphy.
Obviously one could argue that I am ignoring Murphy’s batting average, but I am not. Murphy has hit for a decent average this year (.271), but that has been rendered mostly useless by his inability to show any plate discipline or power. Murphy has never walked at an exceptional rate, but this year it has really stuck out because his average is 17 points below his career norm.
The second part of my last point was his lack of power this season, which by looking at raw statistics alone one can recognize (I CAN HAZ HOMARS??). The likely cause of this is that Murph has hit the ball on the ground a lot more frequently this season, doing so at a 55.9% clip ( 45.5% career), and in concurrence with this has hit far less fly balls (23.1% this season, 33% career). This is an alarming trend for Murph, as grounders are much easier outs than fly balls.
For everyone jumping on the #imwith28 bandwagon: Remember that he has been no better than Jason Bay.
Sorry I haven’t been around here too much lately, been traveling and whatnot. Promise an Andres Torres post later this week/weekend, and some other good stuff I have in the works. Hope you haven’t missed my awesome recapz lately, as baseball has interfered with that.
33 comments
NJstuckinTX
6/21/2012-8:53am at 8:53 am (UTC -4)
Murph needs to start hitting or find himself on the bench, it’s as simple as that.
Also, I propose that minds greater than mine create a statistic that combines WAR to salary. Like Murph is a -0.3, but only gets paid a million or 2. While Bay was a -0.3 but gets paid 16 million. So obviously, Bay has a great total effect against the team (on/off the field). Therefore, his Grand Wins Above Replacement (GWAR!!!!) would be like a -1.3 to Bays – 234334.25. Something like that.
Ceetar
6/21/2012-9:16am at 9:16 am (UTC -4)
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4316&position=1B/2B#value
it’s not perfect (of course not, it uses UZR and that’s not how money works anyway)
has Murphy at owing the Mets 1.5 million.
NJstuckinTX
6/21/2012-9:21am at 9:21 am (UTC -4)
Considering it shows that it has Bay only owing the Mets 1.4 million, I’d tend to agree it’s not a perfect stat in the least!
TRS86
6/21/2012-2:36pm at 2:36 pm (UTC -4)
I think you have ro add that ro what they are already paying him for it to work. So Bay is costing them 1.5 in addition to his 18.5.
NJstuckinTX
6/21/2012-2:43pm at 2:43 pm (UTC -4)
You’d have to have a baseline WAR to pay comparison. Like He’s playing at a 20 million dollar level, but he’s paid 20 million, so that’s a wash on his overall GWAR. Now, Playing at 2 million dollar level while getting paid 20 million, whew, that’s a negative drain on the GWAR if I ever saw one…
Boredom is a scary thing at times.
SpencerRealDirtyMets
6/21/2012-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
I say they make the players pay back however much Fangraphs has them costing the team each year :p.
srt
6/21/2012-9:03am at 9:03 am (UTC -4)
Think we all knew Murphy was never going to be the second baseman of the future. More like a place holder. For who though, I don’t know.
Not sure what to make of him at the plate so far this year. Saw somewhere recently make mention of the fact that he’s getting more inside pitches than in the past. Needs to make an adjustment or two maybe?
Here’s hoping we see the Murph we’re used to seeing sooner rather than later.
Stickguy
6/21/2012-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
other than his BA, not sure the Murphy we were used to seeing was still all that good. Certainly not multidimensional.
And until recently I still through the answer was havens, but man, is he running out of time.
srt
6/21/2012-11:00am at 11:00 am (UTC -4)
Yup, getting late early now for Havens. I know he’s missed considerable playing time. But if he doesn’t start hitting with power – as predicted – I’m thinking he might be trade fodder. Or at the least, removing him from the 40 man roster to make room for others.
gategem
6/21/2012-7:03pm at 7:03 pm (UTC -4)
I recall you dissing Duda in favor or your real love, Mr. Havens.
gategem
6/21/2012-7:16pm at 7:16 pm (UTC -4)
I had always hoped that as Murphy matured he would learn how to turn on the inside pitch and drive it with power. If anything he seems to have become the antithesis of that and is more of a slap hitter. Unfortunately he doesn’t have the speed that a slap hitter requires to be successful. He reminds me of Greg Gross.
Stickguy
6/21/2012-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
I’m certainly not ready to say that Valdespin is the LT answer for 2B (go Flores!) but I am not really feeling this whole Murphy at 2B vibe now.
No problem trading him for the right offer, but I would also be fine with him as a bench (PH/utility) guy. He always seemed to have good ABs as a PH.
NJstuckinTX
6/21/2012-9:51am at 9:51 am (UTC -4)
TRS always brings it up when he isn’t off upping MMO’s hit count. His value is pretty bad right now. I doubt you’d get half a grilled cheese and a cold bowl of soup for him at this point.
Stickguy
6/21/2012-9:54am at 9:54 am (UTC -4)
never know about what you can get for a guy.
Fans are very ST focused. GMs aren’t. They look at a guys body of work, and project what he will do, instead of overreacting to a temporary slump (assuming it is one).
Not saying they will get stud prospects back, but there certainly are some teams that would probably like to have him.
NJstuckinTX
6/21/2012-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
If you could package him, Familia and 1-2 others to get an actual upgrade or higher projected lower level prospect, do it. I’d think Familia/Spin/Murph and another would be an attractive package. Not saying you’ll get a Gio or someone like that, but if it nets you a catcher (JP Arencieba type) or an actual power hitting player (2B/OF). Heck, you could go nuts and throw Gee in if it upgrades the SP as well. I don’t see anyone particular in my crystal ball, but you hopefully get the point I’m not making all that well.
Now, all that said, I know Sandy would not do that. Slow and steady. Now me personally, I don’t think that is really selling off the kids & mortgaging the future. I don’t see Familia or Spin making much of a long term impact (nor Murphy). And going back to our beloved Grave’s articles, more often than not, trading prospects for a stud is the better way to go than trading a stud for prospects.
Ceetar
6/21/2012-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)
Gonna have to give me more than a hot 2 weeks from Valdespin before I believe he’s the answer for anything.
And I still fail to see why the hard ground to 2B is just so much easier than the hard grounder to SS. roughly same distance from the plate right? I still cringe every time the ball is hit to him.
Stickguy
6/21/2012-10:18am at 10:18 am (UTC -4)
I agree about the 2B-SS issue. Obviously plays in the hole are different, but a GB is a GB.
I agree with Tex also. determine the guys that are likely excess, and if you can get an upgrade packaging them, do it. I don’t really see anyone he listed as a LT starter or key player. Except maybe Gee, who is worth more than you might think.
SpencerRealDirtyMets
6/21/2012-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
Yeah Spin isn’t the answer at 2nd, I cringe more when he’s in the field than Murph.
I think the long-term plan is hope that Murph can hold it down til this wave of MIs in the low minors hit: Cecchini, Kaupe, and Evans. Flores is more of a 3B.
NJstuckinTX
6/21/2012-10:32am at 10:32 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I like Gee, but I think his ceiling isn’t as high as Niese. So I would think if an upgrade SP could be had, the team acquiring them would need someone serviceable to fill in their rotation. Again, not sure a Gio-type or Garza-type would be had with that package, but it isn’t a bad package at all. And crazy stuff happens all the time.
Prismo
6/21/2012-10:33am at 10:33 am (UTC -4)
Spencer, if the plan is to wait 4 years until Cecchini is ready to play, then the plan stinks like ****.
Valdespin is very raw at SS/2B, but scouting never had any issue with his ability to catch grounders. Get him some more time at 2B, and let’s see what he can do in a larger sample size. We already know Murphy is a below average fielder and below average hitter (this season), let’s see if Valdy can do better.
gategem
6/21/2012-7:05pm at 7:05 pm (UTC -4)
“when he isn’t off upping MMO’s hit count”
How true, how true. LMAO
kingman 26
6/21/2012-10:38am at 10:38 am (UTC -4)
I want all Mets to succeed, but I appreciate the recent awakening by many to the reality of Murphy.
Let’s face it, 2011 may have been a fluke, and he did miss 1/3 of the season.
His 2012 is EXACTLY the same as his 2009 with the one glaring exception of the zero HRs. His BA and OBP are almost identical to those of his one full MLB season.
Yeah, he works hard and has grit, blah blah blah, but he is just not a very good baseball player.
If he really was a .320 hitter with 12-HR power, yeah, he’d be OK, but when he hits .270, with few walks, terrible fielding, no speed, zero power, etc., he is a marginal MLB starter.
Bravo to this team for continuing to use the whole roster, and sit guys when there are better options. Who know if Valdespin is the answer, but the time to find out is now, and when Tejada returns, let Valdy and Turner split 2B and let Murph be a bench player.
darknova306
6/21/2012-10:54am at 10:54 am (UTC -4)
I’ve said it most of the year, Murphy is garbage. Hard working and likable guy, but not good enough at baseball to warrant any significant playing time. This is definitely the time to find out what Valdespin has as an everyday 2B, even if his defense has looked pretty poor at times.
srt
6/21/2012-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
Problem with Valdespin right now is it’s not only his defense, it’s his bat too. He has more power than Murphy for sure, but he might be more of a hacker than Murphy is lately.
He probably would benefit from more AAA playing time.
Prismo
6/21/2012-11:21am at 11:21 am (UTC -4)
In Valdespin’s last 36 plate appearances his line is:
.314 .333 .571 .905
BA/OBP/SLG/OPS
The only standout is that he never had a walk in that span, so clearly he needs to work on patience. But it’s hard to argue with the overal results.
Prismo
6/21/2012-11:23am at 11:23 am (UTC -4)
In Murphy’s last 62 PA’s (about the same timeframe) his line is:
.145 .145 .177 .323
(yes, that’s an OPS is .323)
srt
6/21/2012-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
It’s hard to argue with results, but as a hacker and with his power he’s going to connect for some nice hits.
Think how much better he’d be if he actually waited a bit for his pitch.
Paul
6/21/2012-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
How does 2012 Daniel Murphy compare to Mets-era Luis Castillo?
I do hope that Sandy Alderson will explore ways to package some of the fringe guys on the Mets & in the upper minors for better talent. A home-grown is nice, but consistent winning is better.
Prismo
6/21/2012-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
More likeable, less valuable.
kingman 26
6/21/2012-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
The 2007 and 2009 Castillo was infinitely more valuable than Murphy.
Fast, very good fielder, good bunter, much better OBP.
Mr North Jersey
6/21/2012-3:09pm at 3:09 pm (UTC -4)
Speaking of Murphy here is what espn’s Mark Simon predicted this weekend for Murphy.
“Simon: Daniel Murphy seems due for something good to happen. He’s 8-for-58 in his last 15 games and was sat against a lefty during the Orioles series in favor of Jordany Valdespin.
Let’s pick Murphy to get a walk-off hit against Rafael Soriano to close out a dramatic 3-2 win against the Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball. ”
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/49123/double-play-which-are-the-real-mets?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
oleosmirf
6/21/2012-10:50pm at 10:50 pm (UTC -4)
I think it’s fair to say Murphy’s value is somewhere in between what he did last season and what he is doing now. You can’t ignore what he did the last two seasons, where he his bat was a real weapon.
That said, Valdespin should play 2B over him…
LambFrobona
11/6/2012-9:56am at 9:56 am (UTC -4)
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