Two days ago, ESPN ran a piece by Christopher Cwik suggesting that the move for the Mets is to go all-in now. In short, Cwik’s argument centered around the fact that the Mets’ three best players are not only past their primes, but are enjoying successes they are unlikely to repeat. Cwik expressed concern over Santana’s ability to keep up his shockingly strong return from shoulder surgery, Dickey’s ability as a knuckleballer to replicate the hot streak he’s on, and Wright’s ability to remain healthy, nevermind a Met. Further, Cwik asserted that the teams vying for the lower-barrier-to-entry playoffs are all severely flawed. He concluded his piece by suggesting that were a big name player to become available, likely Zack Greinke of the Brewers, the Mets ought not hesitate to part with Zack Wheeler or Matt Harvey.
While many of Cwik’s points are sound regarding the unlikely successes of this year’s team and the relatively weak field, his conclusions are not. Let’s start with the players. Santana has been up to his usual tricks this season, something no one expected. As things are now, Santana has shown no signs of slowing down and has been remarkably consistent. His lowest ERA for any of the season’s first three months was a 3.09 mark in May. He is on pace to finish with a career low in home runs allowed over a full season, the only knock anyone had against him for years, while his WHIP and strikeout rate are the best they’ve been since his inaugural year wearing the blue and orange. This isn’t all to say there aren’t concerns, fatigue will settle in and we’ll find out how strong that shoulder is, but there is no reason to be writing him off, even at age 33. When it comes to ace #2, R.A. Dickey, there are even fewer concerns. No, I do not expect him to keep up his sterling numbers but even a regression towards his numbers of the last two years would still make him a solid #2 starter. While his strikeout rate is far higher this year than those last two years, his home run and walk rates are on par. Additionally, despite being 37, he has started only 122 games and pitched fewer than 1,000 innings in his career. All that, and the knowledge that the strain on a knuckleballer is notoriously less severe than that of his harder-throwing counterparts, is quite encouraging. The biggest question mark of the three players Cwik expresses concern over is surely Wright. The fact is I don’t see him remaining a Met in the long-term. I also can’t say I blame him. I think he will stay healthy and I think he is a top-5 third baseman, but I don’t think he will stick around to wait for our prospects to mature. No one wants to see him go, but no one will blame him if he does.
The relative weakness of the field this year has been a major boon to the Mets. The Phillies are entirely out of sorts, the Marlins forgot how to play baseball for a month, and the Braves have been up and down all year with injuries. The Marlins are already showing signs of turning things around while the Braves are a much better team than the Mets when healthy. Much. Even with the Phillies’ window appearing closed, the Mets are at best the 3rd strongest team in the division and have been the beneficiaries of a considerable amount of luck themselves. Their run differential is the lowest, save for the anemic Bucs and Dodgers, of anyone with their winning percentage or higher and considerably lower than many teams with a worse percentage, particularly when considering the much stronger American League teams. Further, it is unlikely that their league-leading 2-out production will remain at such a high level. These factors have manifested themselves in an incredibly streaky team. Since June 1st, the Mets have had four winning streaks of at least three games as well as four losing streaks of at least three games. With no power in the lineup (even a fully healthy one) and no consistency in the bullpen, the Mets have little capacity to sustain true long-term success.
Finally, the idea that the Mets would be well-suited to auction off Wheeler or Harvey is preposterous and precisely the short-sighted logic that got us here in the first place. Dealing Wheeler would render the much-heralded Beltran move of yesteryear worthless, and let us not forget that exactly no one is unaware of the season he’s having for St. Louis. While Harvey is not quite as valuable, he is the kind of middle-of-the-road arm we need for the depth we never have. Moreover, the Mets are not one player away from separating themselves from the pack, and Zack Greinke is low on the list of desirable targets. Aside from concerns over his ability to pitch in a big market, a lefty reliever and righty power bat are surely bigger needs at the moment than the rotation, which has been stellar all season.
As badly as I want to see this aging core do something, I want to see our up and comers do something more. While a playoff berth would be fantastic, and that may happen with or without a major move at the deadline, this team is not a deadline deal away from doing damage in the playoffs. The fan base is invigorated now. Ike and Duda are playing well. Tejada is exceeding everyone’s expectations (.353 since returning from the DL). And the team has rallied behind their pair of aces. A regression next year ought to be expected, but to take a shot at 2012 at the price of 2014, when Harvey and Wheeler will surely both be up, reeks of the quick trigger that lost us Kazmir so many years ago. Patience and the excellent managerial skills of Terry Collins have brought unexpected success thus far. To abandon it now would typical of the Mets but then again, so is mediocrity. The Mets need to break their own trend and stay the course, resisting the urge to pull a Cwik trigger.
12 comments
Mr North Jersey
7/3/2012-5:26pm at 5:26 pm (UTC -4)
I doubt the FO will trade away a Harvey Familia or Wheeler for Greinke. Until I see otherwise I think unless they are going to take on salary for another player they probably will not be bringing in a starter via trade.
The interesting thing is that since past moves have not been known until they have happened there will be a daily anticipation starting with next Monday until the trade deadline of is this the day that a move is made.
I still lean toward the pen being dealt from within via a Mejia, Beatto or Edgin but time will tell.
darknova306
7/3/2012-5:54pm at 5:54 pm (UTC -4)
Thankfully we finally have a front office that we can reasonably expect to not go the Omar “we’re just one piece away so let’s do whatever it takes” route. With Sandy, I expect any help to come from a minor trade or two for bullpen pieces or complimentary role players, while not sacrificing any part of the future.
Stickguy
7/3/2012-6:00pm at 6:00 pm (UTC -4)
agreed. with the caveat being, they might get a “big” BP piece via salary dump. that is only money, not the future.
Stickguy
7/3/2012-5:58pm at 5:58 pm (UTC -4)
I agree that there will be moves from within, probably beato and edgin, for the pen, but there could also be a new guy brought in to go along with them.
maybe a RH bat to add to the mix, but not a star type most likely.
ulness a miracle occurs, and bay comes back and actually hits?
oh, who am I kidding. his numbers are bad for the year, but horrific in his last return. In the week that he was back before crashing the wall, he started 7 straight games (hit in 6 of them) with a line up .08/.115/.200/.315.
that is a .315 OPS. hard for a pitcher to do that! but 2-25 with 1 BB will make it so.
darknova306
7/3/2012-6:06pm at 6:06 pm (UTC -4)
I had done a great job of forgetting about Bay… until now. :p
What’s his status right now? Last I knew he was getting ready to hit off a tee?
Stickguy
7/3/2012-7:04pm at 7:04 pm (UTC -4)
some mumbling that he could be ready right after the ASG.
Ugh.
darknova306
7/3/2012-7:06pm at 7:06 pm (UTC -4)
That would be a major buzzkill…
Stickguy
7/3/2012-5:52pm at 5:52 pm (UTC -4)
the only part of the concept I don’t agree with is trading a top guy like that. won’t happen.
But, the theory is sound that the Mets should be buyers, and if not “all in”, at least “in deep”
But, i think that means using the payroll flexibility they supposedly kept in reserve. basically buy a salary dump for a RP, and if possible, come up with a RH power bat (easier said than done).
but, considering their real needs, and what you can likely get, a better RH bench guy and a RP are probably about as in as they are likely to go.
but they still need to be trying to make the moves to take advantage of a weak year. Can’t pass on taking a run because you are focused on 2014.
and I think they are for real. Not like they have been otherworldly or anything. just playing up to their talent for a change (hey, other teams think it is normal for their high paid stars to produce big, not some kind of unsustainable fluke!)
Mr North Jersey
7/3/2012-6:31pm at 6:31 pm (UTC -4)
Off Topic: watching the Miami game and the Brewers have just broken it open with a 6 run 6th inning to lead 9-2. A game that started with both Stanton and Ramirez taking the day off due to sore knees.
srt
7/3/2012-6:34pm at 6:34 pm (UTC -4)
Can’t say I much agree with that all in mentality. Don’t think they’ll be going down that road anyway. This isn’t Omar’s FO.
Can’t say I agree either that David Wright will be going anywhere. That’s not the way I’m reading it at the moment.
If we play well this last home stand, I think the FO will get serious after the ASB to see what pieces they might be able to get without mortgaging the future.
SaltyGary
7/3/2012-6:51pm at 6:51 pm (UTC -4)
There was a great comment at ESPN from someone “Anyone here not think this sounds like Kazmir Zambranno all over again?”.
I agree, lets not get crazy here.
NJstuckinTX
7/4/2012-8:08am at 8:08 am (UTC -4)
While I would love a Grienke type for this team there are a couple points to be made. A less than half year rental for a top prospect is silly (case in point mr wheeler). This team has a great strength in its starting pitching. It’s the BP that needs help. Now if Valdy or Familia were needed as trade chips, so be it and they are expendable. Wheeler, Harvey and Flores are untouchable.
Also, Wright is going no where. He means too much to this club and is too good to be let go.
Also also, this is not the final year of good to come from Santana or Dickey.