What do Mets’ fans think when they think of Jonathon Niese?
The answers to this question are numerous. Young arm with a lot of potential. Injury prone, and nothing more than a number four starter. Or they might think up and coming top of the rotation pitcher. This is what makes Jon Niese an enigma and the focus of the second article of four in the series.
Nobody knows which description is right for Jonathon Niese. He has shown flashes of a above-average pitcher over the past three seasons that make fans think he has number two starter potential. He has a good enough fastball, improving cutter and devastating curverball. As good as he has looked throughout stretches of his young career, he has allowed innings to snowball, failed to pitch deep in games, and has yet to throw 175 innings in a season.
Niese was called up to the Mets in 2009 where he had a chance to contribute on a bad team. Unfortunately, he tore his hamstring and never got a chance to start feeling comfortable in the majors. In 2010 and 2011 his performance can be categorized as mediocre at best. He was given near zero WAR’s on baseballreference.com meaning he was a league average pitcher. He has allowed too many base runners with a WHIP of over 1.4 each season and was unable to limit the damage in many innings, allowing innings to snowball.
So far this season Niese has shown great improvement in WHIP, ERA and K/9. If Niese can maintain these numbers, it would firmly entrench him as the third starter in the rotation behind Dickey and Santana.
Niese’s new five year $25.5 million contract shows faith by the organization in his ability to improve. Niese’s improvement is reliant on two key factors, staying healthy and throwing his curveball more. Staying healthy is an obvious key but for Niese more than others has had numerous different injuries. Most importantly, Niese has to throw his curveball more, he throws the more traditional 12-6 curveball which seems to always befuddle opposing hitters and is rarely hit hard. It is maddening to watch a Jon Niese start when he barely uses his best weapon.
Niese is a key to the Mets’ future with his new contract in tow. The Mets need him to consistently give them 200 quality innings, and limit bad outings. Niese has been an enigma up to this point in his career for various reasons. Hopefully he can continue to break out this year.
To see part one of the series use the link: http://realdirtymets.com/2012/06/28/the-enigma-that-is-_______-part-1/
19 comments
Stickguy
7/3/2012-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
I like him, And have been on his bandwagon since the early days.
I think he is a solid mid-rotation guy at this point, and has the stuff/potential to really put it all together for a big season.
having a string of petite like years is certainly not out of reason.
if he really puts everything together (nails down all his stuff, gets fully mentally set, stays healthy, the new nose works) then he could move up to a real #2 guy.
he is still pretty young, and I think by the end of it, he could make the contract look like a bargain.
Even if they get Mark Beuhrle out of it, still a good ting to have.
srt
7/3/2012-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
I actually like Niese. Was hoping this is the year he puts it together and finds some consistency. So far this season, that hasn’t been the case – for the most part.
IMO, his lapses have more to do with a game plan and making adjustments batter to batter, than it does mechanics. This is the one guy where I think a veteran catcher would have helped. I know Thole has improved but they’re kind of both learning on the job.
I’m hoping Niese has a better second half. Hoping with the improved breathing (as a result of the nose job), his training in the off season where he supposedly worked on being in better shape – will all lead to him getting into a groove going into the dog days and down the stretch.
SaltyGary
7/3/2012-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
Of course we would all wish for him to have better numbers, but he is having a very solid year. Can’t have a rotation of all aces and he was never projected to be one. Solid pitcher that keeps the team in the game. He’s kind of like a Rick Reed, don’t expect anything great to happen but you always know they have a shot. Now add that very reasonable contract and this kid is a winner!
oleosmirf
7/3/2012-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
Niese is slowly developing into one of the better LHP in the league.
More importantly can one of you authors do a piece on how the Mets need to call up Fred Lewis ASAP.
Right now the Mets have Torres or Hairston playing against RHP and both are struggling terribly while Lewis is mashing them in AAA .to the tune of 325/.410/.538/.947.
Lewis, Kirk, Duda in the OF against RHP and Hairston, Torres, Duda in the OF against LHP. There is so much wasted productivity right now and the answer is so simple.
Mr North Jersey
7/3/2012-12:27pm at 12:27 pm (UTC -4)
Who on the 40 man do you remove for Lewis?
Bay should be back soon if I am not mistaken I don’t think Lewis will be called up unless there is some injury.
Stickguy
7/3/2012-12:38pm at 12:38 pm (UTC -4)
there are options. Satin? Lutz? Baxter to the 60 day?
I really miss baxter. He would be the guy playing vs. RHP.
but you are correct, bay is going to screw things up. But actually, he makes it worse, since he can’t hit RHP either, and if they insist on playing him, no room for another LH bat.
darknova306
7/3/2012-12:04pm at 12:04 pm (UTC -4)
I’ve been a huge Niese fan since the beginning. The big question for me this season is if he can avoid the usual second-half fade. If he can do that, and continue slowly taking steps forward, he’ll be well worth it. With the pitching the Mets have in the rotation and in the minors, I’ll take Niese as a long term #3 guy if I can get it.
Ceetar
7/3/2012-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
His 3.55 ERA is good for 24th of 62 qualifying NL pitchers, and a good .41 better than league average.
That’s also 22nd of a 59 non-Mets pitchers.
Niese is/was always a candidate to get it together, as he’s one of those guys that seemed to strike guys out, not walk too many, and still somehow let too many guys on base. He’s starting to prove that some of that may have been simply bad luck, and has made the adjustments to capitalize.
Mr North Jersey
7/3/2012-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
When Niese is on with his curve there is none sweeter on this Mets team to watch.
His 2nd half this season will be key. He needs to show he can pitch well and not fade as in seasons past.
srt
7/3/2012-12:41pm at 12:41 pm (UTC -4)
OT:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/tom_verducci/07/03/midseason-awards-cano-votto/index.html?eref=writers
Nice…..Verducci’s got Dickey on the mid season MVP list and 1st on the CY for the NL.
darknova306
7/3/2012-3:09pm at 3:09 pm (UTC -4)
Well, he’s certainly near the top of my list of Mets MVP candidates, that’s for sure. If you take away Wright or Dickey from the first half so far, we aren’t having “can the really compete?” debates this far into the season.
Stickguy
7/3/2012-1:42pm at 1:42 pm (UTC -4)
another interesting piece, and not what I would have expected but what the heck, take it!
Interesting to see Nimmo on here though, after so little PT.
I also loved his last line: So, now you know who will be playing for the Mets soon and whom the Yankees will be trading.”
http://nymag.com/daily/sports/2012/07/mets-have-better-prospects-than-the-yankees.html
srt
7/3/2012-2:30pm at 2:30 pm (UTC -4)
‘…who the Yankees will be trading.’ hahaha ain’t that the truth.
darknova306
7/3/2012-2:56pm at 2:56 pm (UTC -4)
It really shouldn’t be hard to have better prospects than an organization that trades all their good ones away.
Glad to see our system getting some recognition!
srt
7/3/2012-2:40pm at 2:40 pm (UTC -4)
Lots of good articles out there today.
Over at AA, they believe it’s not too early to speculate:
Mets Playoff Odds
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/7/3/3134083/mets-playoff-odds-wild-card-national-league-braves-nationals-marlins-phillies
darknova306
7/3/2012-2:53pm at 2:53 pm (UTC -4)
No, it’s not too early to speculate, but it is too early to get your hopes up too high. At least that’s my view… a view that gets me labeled “king of negativity” by petulant asshats like Coutinho.
srt
7/3/2012-5:58pm at 5:58 pm (UTC -4)
Ha! I take it that’s a twitter debate between you and Coutinho.
If I’m not mistaken the record right now is right about what it was this time in 2010. So it could go either way. Think in ’10 we tanked on the west coast trip coming out of the ASB and never really recovered. So we need to make a better showing on the west cost trip coming up. Going 5-1 on this home stand would go a long way too.
Don’t know if we’ll get to post season but I’m enjoying the heck out of watching them right now.
Daniel Stein-Sayles
7/4/2012-12:54am at 12:54 am (UTC -4)
Fitting day to put up this article as Niese pitched a gem. I was at the game and he was rolling through the Phillies, granted the Phillies don’t have a lot of hitting but Niese has everything working even though he did give up a few solid line drives on curveballs. Great game none the less.
gategem
7/4/2012-1:38am at 1:38 am (UTC -4)
I don’t consider Niese to be an enigma but rather a developing young pitcher. It’s not like he was blessed with Sandy Koufax talent and keeps on getting bombed every time he takes the mound.