Jul 08
The All-Star Break arrives and while everyone will have their Report Cards assessing the teams performance, I’m opting for a different angle.
They say the real season begins after the All-Star Break in terms for the hunt for the playoffs.
Now that the Mets are in contention for that in some degree. Today’s Question: What are your expectations for the Mets in terms of the playoff chances and second half record?
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16 comments
Ceetar
7/8/2012-9:21am at 9:21 am (UTC -4)
I think there’s plenty of room for improvement. Better second half than first. That will at least get them a WC berth, but depending on how they play the Nats (And Braves) could be the division.
NJstuckinTX
7/8/2012-9:32am at 9:32 am (UTC -4)
I would think if they aren’t selling and make a BP move and get a RH bat, they should be beating up on the seller teams. So overall a better record than the first.
Stick
7/8/2012-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
I can’t see any way they are selling. And if you think about it, they don’t have much to sell (in terms of pending FAs or big $ contracts to move).
Santana has to still be relatively unmovable (even if they want to). No chance in hell they trade Wright. Bay being traded would have to be looked at as a “going for it” move (and would certainly energize the fanbase!)
so, no one else really makes any money to speak of, or is obviously not part of the future but can bring back serious prospects.
Stick
7/8/2012-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)
room to get better.
I think they will keep up roughly the same pace, but add 1 more win per month. That would put them right around 15 over, so 88-89 wins, and right there for a WC spot (just in or just out)
and I won’t discount the division, since I think the Nats have been playing a bit over their heads, and they aren’t likely to have Strasburg in September. I think 90-91 could take the NL East.
totally random predictions: The Pen will be much better after the break (with Franky back, Parnell having a big half, and at least 1 new guy brought in + an edgin promotion). And they will hit more HRs, including having Duda go on a binge at some point.
Ceetar
7/8/2012-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
the lack of Manny Acosta helps too.
in fact the pen has been better than league average for weeks now.
Stick
7/8/2012-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
Manny might just be back at some point,. He has been lights out in AAA lately.
and honestly, he almost has to be better overall than Batista.
Ceetar
7/8/2012-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
The Manny who comes back won’t be the Manny who left though. He was historically bad. if we get ’10-’11 Acosta, particularly second half, that’s probably as good as anyone we can get on the market.
srt
7/8/2012-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
I have to say, I had the Mets winning about 74 games this year. If the first half was any indication, I was wrong about that and happy to be so.
If they can solve the problem that was this BP the fist half, get a RH bat that can produce (even if that winds up being somethinl like a Bay/Hairston platoon), and SP stays healthy – I don’t we any reason we cannot compete for a post season spot.
oleosmirf
7/8/2012-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
I still do not believe this team is making the playoffs, unless they address the bullpen and the hitters learn to hit guys who throw from the other side of the rubber…
kingman 26
7/8/2012-12:39pm at 12:39 pm (UTC -4)
Love Collins, love the hustle, love this team.
But they are too flawed for the postseason this year.
The bullpen and the defense simply are not good enough to win enough close games with good teams. I think their 3-9 record with the Yanks and WASH somewhat shows what they are like against really good teams–they play close and fight hard, but one defensive mistake or one HR pitch does them in. 4 losses to the Yanks by 5 total runs.
Starting Fri the 13th, they play 3 @ ATL, 3 @ WASH, 3 vs LA, 3 vs WASH, 4 @ AZ and 4 @ SF in another hell stretch of 20 games, and they went 11-11 in the last hell stretch and that was after winning the first three w/STL. This 20-game period might tell us the answers for 2012.
Murph at 2B and Duda in RF are just huge liabilities, as are many of the bullpen arms.
I see about 85-87 wins, which will be outstanding considering what the team looked like in ST, and I see the honeymoon ending for Sandy the day the season ends, as he simply must do better at fixing the pen and the Wilpons must end the spending embargo.
Overall, they miss the playoffs, but do play meaningful Sept games, and enter next year as a clear playoff contender. The rotation has a chance to be one of the game’s best next year should Niese finish strong and Harvey and Wheeler be ready to take the next steps.
NJstuckinTX
7/8/2012-2:36pm at 2:36 pm (UTC -4)
Kong, you’ve been missed.
Agreed on the honeymoon being over, but also feel that this will finally be a year with some flexibility for him. I really hope he trades for a closer that is controllable passed this year and can jettison Bay for a bottle of maple syrup and player to be named later.
gategem
7/8/2012-3:12pm at 3:12 pm (UTC -4)
Kong, I mostly agree with your analysis but a red flag outside of the Mets performance against strong teams is that they’re about to go 2-7 against two of the worst teams in baseball, the Astros and the Cubs. The fact that TC could not get the Mets to play hard against these two teams is telling that he may not be as good a motivator as we think he is. The Mets are not good enough to coast against weak teams and win.
I wish I could predict that the Mets will improve on their first half record, but unlike those that make this prediction, I find it difficult to cavort with Peter Pan, Tinker Bell and the infamous General Antonio López de Santa Claus.
darknova306
7/8/2012-4:19pm at 4:19 pm (UTC -4)
Couldn’t agree more, gate. I was just thinking about that: swept by the Astros and 2-4 against the Cubs. That’s contender baseball!
kingman 26
7/8/2012-3:21pm at 3:21 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks you two!
Have a nice and lengthy mid-season report card posting early tomorrow morning…would love your comments, and I already know it is too long…
Mr North Jersey
7/8/2012-4:05pm at 4:05 pm (UTC -4)
We are in uncharted territory here. Recent history suggest they will fade in the 2nd half and that may be the case this time around but then again this year’s team has also exceeded many people’s expectations so the question really is can they continue to do so and for how long?
darknova306
7/8/2012-4:16pm at 4:16 pm (UTC -4)
I think the Mets will maintain their inconsistent level of play. I fully expect Santana’s shoulder to either get fatigued or cause a DL stint or two. And I won’t have faith in Niese in the second half until he actually shows he can hold up for an entire season.
The bullpen will have a few more cycles of terrible, then decent, then terrible, then decent. The defense will continue to cost games.
In the end, I think the team needs to have everyone stay perfectly healthy and not regress at all for them to seriously contend, and I don’t see that holding up. They will, however, play meaningful baseball for at least part of September, and that’s all I hope for.
And yes, the Nats are actually good.