Matt Harvey will be making what may be his last start in the minors tonight as a decision on calling him up or not to replace an injured Dillon Gee is soon to be made. Harvey has had an All-Star year at AAA Buffalo this season posting a record of 7-4 3.39/ERA, 42/BB, 102/SO, 98.1/IP. His 98.1/IP is what I want to draw some attention to.
Earlier this season just before the season got underway Mets VP of Player Development Paul DePodesta in an article written by Brian Costa of the WSJ said “You’re not going to see a 50- or 60-inning jump from any of those guys.” The “those guys” he was referring to was Zack Wheeler, Jeurys Familia and Matt Harvey.
Another pitcher who currently has his innings pitched being a focal point and is scheduled to be shutdown once he reaches it is the Nats Stephen Strasburg though it most likely has more to do with his coming back from Tommy John surgery.
In looking at Harvey’s total innings pitched from last year he pitched 135.2/IP between Binghamton & Buffalo combined. If we were to say that Harvey was to pitch 50 more innings than last year that would bring the total to 185.2/IP for this season.
If you were to guess that Harvey would pitch 5 innings tonight that would leave him at 103.1/IP so far on the season with 82.1/IP remaining if we are going to go by what DePodesta said.
If Harvey averages about 6.0/IP per start that would mean Harvey hypothetically speaking has about a little over 13 starts remaining on the season after tonight.
At which point the question then becomes if the Mets find themselves in a playoff race in the last weeks of the season how strict will the Mets be with this innings pitch limit if it means having to shut Harvey down once he reaches it or dare we even go there? Shut him down for the playoffs?
A question I gladly look forward to hoping to have to answer.
44 comments
srt
7/16/2012-2:55pm at 2:55 pm (UTC -4)
I’ll eat my hat if the Nats are in a race for the playoffs and they shut down Strasberg….
If they call up Harvey by the weekend, and we find ourselves in a race for a play off berth as well, it will be interesting, to say the least. So much can happen between now and then. I’ll look forward to watching how this unfolds.
Mr North Jersey
7/16/2012-3:21pm at 3:21 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t know what that will do for your fiber but it can’t be good.
srt
7/16/2012-3:48pm at 3:48 pm (UTC -4)
LOL.
Wouldn’t want to be that FO dodging the fan base if they do shut him down and they wind up slipping out of contention.
As Ron Darling ranted about this earlier in the season:
There Is No Book!
srt
7/16/2012-3:49pm at 3:49 pm (UTC -4)
Just noticed I spelled Strasburg wrong. Sorry, kid….
NJstuckinTX
7/16/2012-3:31pm at 3:31 pm (UTC -4)
I agree. Maybe they skip a start or 2 with him, but they aren’t shutting him down completely.
And I’d love to have to make that kind of decision if I was the Mets! Knowing he most likely would be shut down pushes the purpose that if the Mets were to make a run, they most definitely will have to get another starter. no if’s ands or buts.
srt
7/16/2012-2:59pm at 2:59 pm (UTC -4)
I’m a regular reader over at AA and saw a comment this afternoon from a regular contributor that so perfectly sums up my mindset on the NY Mets right about now.
From BurleighGrimes (and how great is this name? For those that don’t want to look it up, he’s a HOF pitcher elected in 1964 and the last allowed to throw a spit ball. Burleigh over on AA is a fellow female poster.)
Before the season, I would have been very happy if I was told any of the following were certainties:
1. Mets throw their first no-hitter
2. Mets get through (at least) late July never spending a single day below .500
3. Johan Santana makes 18 consecutive starts to begin the season, throwing ~110 innings in the process
4. RA Dickey makes the all-star team
5. David Wright had a career half-year in which his OPS is perpetually above 1.000.
6. Jon Niese and Dillon Gee take substantial strides forward
7. Mets enter the all-star break very much in the playoff hunt
And yet…with all of these things in the bag I am so set up to be extremely disappointed over the course of the next couple of weeks if the Mets turn into the .500 team I expected them to be before the season began.
Mr North Jersey
7/16/2012-3:24pm at 3:24 pm (UTC -4)
LoL, that comment should be titled “Oh, to be a Mets fan”.
darknova306
7/16/2012-3:52pm at 3:52 pm (UTC -4)
The Mets do this kind of thing every year: play well enough to stay in the race just long enough to get the hardened cynics like me back on board, then they tank. Thankfully, the last three years have taught me a lot about this team, so I remain vastly skeptical of the 2012 Mets.
It’s important to remember why they’ve beaten expectations so far. the two biggest offseason question marks have been resounding positives so far. Santana has been healthy and Wright has finally figured things out and is back to being an MVP candidate. Without those two things happening, this team is under .500 and fighting Philly for last place (something that still feels weird to type. Suck it, Philly!!!).
For the most part, the team has relied on much better than expected starting pitching to cover the flaws in the bullpen and defense (and serious lack of power in the lineup). The Mets’ second half hopes of fringe contention rest on a pair of reconstructed shoulders, a pitch that can be woefully erratic even for someone that’s mastered it, a lefty that runs out of gas as the calendar moves to August/September, and a fifth spot that will either be a committee of crap or an unpolished rookie. This looks like a setup for some last season misery.
NJstuckinTX
7/16/2012-4:16pm at 4:16 pm (UTC -4)
in 1 weeks time we’ll know which way they are going. With 2 tough series in a row, it’s make or break time. We could quickly see hairston, Byrdak, Murph and some others in other uni’s quite quickly.
Stickguy
7/16/2012-4:25pm at 4:25 pm (UTC -4)
I would not really miss any of those guys if the Mets aren’t really in the hunt. And hell, quite possible that they could trade them off, and replace with guys that can add just as much value, and finish in the same place!
byrd has not been reliable for a while, and they can call up another loogy. Murphy, replaced by Spin/turner. And Hairston, well, might miss him, but bay will suck time away, and there must be another platoon back up OF available.
so trade away!
NJstuckinTX
7/16/2012-4:39pm at 4:39 pm (UTC -4)
agreed. They could probably use all those piece to try and get better this year.
wanny
7/16/2012-5:06pm at 5:06 pm (UTC -4)
but the types of teams taking back a hairston or byrdak likely wouldn’t be trading guys who can contribute now.
srt
7/16/2012-3:04pm at 3:04 pm (UTC -4)
Nice timing too. SNY airing Harvey’s start tonight.
Stickguy
7/16/2012-4:29pm at 4:29 pm (UTC -4)
Like they said in Pirate’s, “it’s not really a code. more like a guideline”.
so, like with pitch counts, you go on a case by case basis. Look at how a guy feels, results, etc. Is he starting to drop his arm angle? Losing velocity? losing break? is the guy a little man or a horse?
all that stuff comes into play. So dudes might need to cut off at 25 max. Some might be fine at 50. Heck, some at plenty more.
Also less concerned with Harvey, because he has been a starter every year, pitching regularly. Did not miss huge amounts of time, or have an injury.
besides, take what you can now, and if you need to worry about it in September, that is actually a good thing!
Stickguy
7/16/2012-4:31pm at 4:31 pm (UTC -4)
I also like that they are publicly putting him on an audition. Will be a good way to see how he handles pressure 9a big game).
If he becomes a blubbering blob of blubber tonight, imaging what he might do in a huge game vs. the nats in Washington?
And no, I don’t think this is actually what they are going to make the decision on. maybe they want to see certain little things, but no way can they base the decision on just this one game.
wanny
7/16/2012-4:35pm at 4:35 pm (UTC -4)
i have been pretty discouraged by what i have read about harvey’s ceiling this week from the various articles quoting scouts.
it seems to me that the consensus is mid rotation starter with a chance at being as good as a #2. the reason he is not being anointed as one with a high ceiling is his control and his lack of a changeup to get lefties out.
these have me torn on whether he should be brought up. on one hand, i’m willing to risk the development of a guy with a #3 ceiling to give us a shot this year. on the other hand, the things preventing his ceiling from being built higher are things that can be worked on in AAA — throwing that changeup often and working on keeping that fastball down.
in the end, i think the decision has to be made based upon his makeup. they made the mistake of bringing pelfrey up too soon as he was clearly unable to deal with the pressure of MLB while working on his weaknesses and does not deal well with failure. the harvey situation seems remarkably similar — the same deficiencies and similar repertoires. If harvey is a similar person to pelf then leave him down. if he is similar to gee or niese – bring him up.
all that said, even if you add an extra run and a half to his ERA for the jump from AAA to MLB, he won’t be humiliating himself. a 4.75 performance would not spell the end of the world in the #5 spot for a rookie. miguel batista would likely not fare better.
Stickguy
7/16/2012-5:05pm at 5:05 pm (UTC -4)
where did this concept come from that pitchers cannot continue to develop (or fine tune) in the majors? Only in the minors?
results might not be quite as pretty if you have a few things to work on when you get called up, but you do have immediate feedback!
and if the guys in AAA aren’t enough of a challenge, who’s to say that you are going to really develop past a certain point there?
wanny
7/16/2012-5:10pm at 5:10 pm (UTC -4)
my point is that some people, like Pelfrey, for example, don’t have the mentality or temperament to develop in the MLB.
I don’t know the answer re Harvey.
and don’t make it sound as if he has dominated AAA.
Stickguy
7/16/2012-5:26pm at 5:26 pm (UTC -4)
well, my opinion is that guys that are too dumb/weak/whatever to make an adjustment in the majors, were not going to develop into better players in the minors, then carry that forward to the majors.
do you think if Pelf had not been called up in 2006, and had spent another full year in the minors, that he would have been a significantly better pitcher?
wanny
7/16/2012-8:56pm at 8:56 pm (UTC -4)
maybe he could have learned that changeup that he still can’t throw. you cant be on the major league team throwing pitches you don’t know how to throw to major league hitters. it’s setting a guy up to fail.
Stick
7/16/2012-9:05pm at 9:05 pm (UTC -4)
they do it all the time. Work on stuff during the pen side sessions. And learn them in the off season.
Neise added a cutter. and plenty of other guys do the same thing.
Big Poof had what, 5 years to come up with another pitch, and didn’t? So just not thinking another 6 months in the minors was the missing link. But, you never know.
wanny
7/16/2012-4:53pm at 4:53 pm (UTC -4)
Sorry to go off topic above. As to the topic, I think these innings counts are mostly nonsense. if a guy is healthy he should pitch. the risk for injury increases for everybody as they throw more pitches — not just for young guys.
srt
7/16/2012-7:09pm at 7:09 pm (UTC -4)
Agree.
Hazmet
7/16/2012-7:38pm at 7:38 pm (UTC -4)
Harvey hasn’t pitched a game that counts in 12 days and if after tonight he has 82 or so innings to burn and he was to go 7 innings in each start he’d be at about 11 – 12 more starts. 10 more starts at 7 innings each would put his 10th start circa mid September. So am I worried, no. A) if callled up what are the odds he can go 7 in each start in his first call up to the bigs – none in my book so he he could make it well into September before shutdown is a concern. B) Even if he exhausted those innings going every 5 days Gee is due back by mid-later part of September as I understood the down time so he can hand the ball back to Gee if he reaches his innings count.
Also, if scouts are saying his breaking ball isn’t good enough to get lefties out I don’t think they’ve watched him recently. His breaking ball in the AAA All Star Game against lefties was filthy with late break.
Stick
7/16/2012-8:13pm at 8:13 pm (UTC -4)
I thought it was only the changeup that was a concern?
Hazmet
7/16/2012-8:46pm at 8:46 pm (UTC -4)
They discussed tonight that he’s developed his own changeup grip recently that he’s more comfortable with then the grips they’ve been trying to get him to use. If he’s starting to have success with it that could be the final piece to add to his arsenal. Then again, if it’s to recognizable a grip difference big leaguers will rip it apart.
Stick
7/16/2012-9:06pm at 9:06 pm (UTC -4)
like dickey’s knuckleball?
Hazmet
7/16/2012-10:34pm at 10:34 pm (UTC -4)
lol, zing.
Stick
7/16/2012-8:17pm at 8:17 pm (UTC -4)
anyway, when did professional baseball players become fragile little girlie men, with the intestinal fortitude of a marshmallow?
NJStuckinTX
7/16/2012-8:34pm at 8:34 pm (UTC -4)
ooohhhh… and marshmallows don’t have intestines…. So that’s extra pansy girly!
Stick
7/16/2012-8:37pm at 8:37 pm (UTC -4)
well, based on his outing tonight, not thinking he will be starting next Saturday. Though could certainly give it a shot.
5 innings, 110 pitches, 5 walks, 4 ER say? Still more than what you are likely to get out of Batista!
srt
7/16/2012-9:11pm at 9:11 pm (UTC -4)
No, Harvey pitched into the 7th inning.
I believe he was around 100 pitches.
Only gave up 2 runs and thought it was 4 walks.
Stick
7/16/2012-9:21pm at 9:21 pm (UTC -4)
98 tonight.
that was my guess as to what his first ML start would end up being.
srt
7/16/2012-10:27pm at 10:27 pm (UTC -4)
Ah….I see.
Watched the whole game. Harvey was neither dominate nor awful. Not sure what the FO could have seen tonight that they already didn’t know about him.
I know one thing though after watching tonight’s game….Mejia isn’t close to ready for a call up, even for the BP. Think he took the lose. His control was awful.
Hazmet
7/16/2012-10:32pm at 10:32 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, Mejia was a major bummer. That intentional walk was hair raising. Almost threw a couple away.
Hazmet
7/16/2012-8:56pm at 8:56 pm (UTC -4)
Oh man, Wally pulling him with 2 out second and third in the seventh. Damn, I wanted to see if he could get out of it….
Hazmet
7/16/2012-9:02pm at 9:02 pm (UTC -4)
And the Bison pen emulates the Met’s pen. Harvey will fit right in at Citifield.
Stick
7/16/2012-9:07pm at 9:07 pm (UTC -4)
wally managing to win his game, not do what is best for the Mets.
oleosmirf
7/16/2012-9:53pm at 9:53 pm (UTC -4)
I would be shocked if the Mets were in a playoff race in September so I don’t think it will be an issue, but if the Mets by some miracle are, then you have to throw him out there and let him pitch.
It’s ok to keep tabs on his innings, but I think innings limits do more damage than they help…
Stick
7/16/2012-10:26pm at 10:26 pm (UTC -4)
doesn’t really seem that he showed anything notably different from the various reports.
At this time, they need to decide if they think he is making progress with the detail stuff (spotting FB and the new change up), and if a nother month or 2 in the minors will be enough to have him nail it all down.
if yes, I would just let him finish out the year. maybe a september “get your feet wet” call up.
if no, and this is pretty much what he is going to be, might as well call him up under the “better than batista” theorem.
right now, just call hefner back up to make a few starts.
Stick
7/16/2012-11:34pm at 11:34 pm (UTC -4)
so, looks like the Phils are putting on the comeback I expected they would be making. I just hope they spotted the field a little too big a lead, but I still expect them to get way too close to the WC for comfort.
But, as long as they hold onto all their players for the run and fall short, then get nothing when they leave (if they do) I can live with it!
darknova306
7/16/2012-11:57pm at 11:57 pm (UTC -4)
Yup, it’s really hard to count the Phillies out with some of the talent they have there. Utley, Howard, Pence, and Ruiz make for a dangerous lineup and Halladay is coming back with Lee and Hamels still there. I still don’t expect them to be in last place when the season ends.
With my expectation of the Mets making their annual second half slide and the Phillies getting healthy, I could see them overtaking New York for third place before it’s all said and done.
gategem
7/17/2012-1:55am at 1:55 am (UTC -4)
So the Phillies have won three in a row. BFD! Every team has winning streaks during a long season. You are totally paranoid about them. Considering the number of quality teams in front of them they will not win a post season berth. In case you haven’t noticed the Braves have won 7 in a row. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games while the Phillies are 4-6. Personally, it the Mets are not in the post season I couldn’t care less who gets in.
Stickguy
7/17/2012-7:36am at 7:36 am (UTC -4)
you are whistling past the graveyard my friend. Check back when they have won 15 of the next 20, and are back up to about .500, and within sniffing distance with 8 weeks to go.