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Aug 01

Don’t Look For Narratives Where There Aren’t Any

After 4 PM yesterday, I saw two sorts of appalling posts on the Mets Blogosphere.

  1. The Phillies suck and the dynasty is over! Rejoice!
  2. Sandy Alderson has run out of time here in New York, and clearly winning is not what he is interested in.

The first one is just immature, but the second one is insane.

I have heard a great many complaints regarding different moves- or non-moves- that Sandy and the Front Office have made. Some of these complaints go as follows.

1.) “If the plan is to build through the farm, why did the Mets not sign their 2nd round pick this year?”

Although we do not know what goes on behind closed doors, I believe that I do have a little intuition. I have spoken to several People That Know lately regarding the new draft system, and nearly all of them have stressed one thing: teams absolutely, under no circumstances, can the team cater to every demand of the agent. The agent must keep their integrity when negotiating the pre-draft deal, and if they break that the team can not waver too far from the original agreement. As far as we know Stankiewicz was not signed because of $50,000, but we do not truly know how far from their pre-draft contract they had already come to that point. The team has to set the precedent that the agent can’t nickle and dime them.

Additionally, it is not like the old draft where all you get is the pick, but you do not gain anything else. If the Mets so choose next year, they can go underslot with that pick and re-allocate the money towards maybe signing a guy who fell to them in the first round (similar to Giolito this year). It is also important to keep in mind that this year’s draft was incredibly weak, and it could be possible the Mets have targeted next year’s class as being stronger, and therefore worth more resources.

2.) “Sandy told us that they would be buyers!!! I WANT TRAIDS.”

That was on July 21st, when the Mets were 5 games out of the 2nd Wild Card spot, and not yet mired in an all-out collapse. The team is now 8.5 games out, and that’s not even mentioning all the teams they would have to leapfrog.

The problem is, and this has been said a lot- the Mets cannot buy enough players to get back to where they were. Find me a team that lost two pitchers the caliber of Dillon Gee and Johan Santana, as well as a reliable innings eater such as Mike Pelfrey, and lived to tell the tale? This, coupled with the horrendous bullpen and equally atrocious defense, makes just too many flaws for a few deadline deals to shore up.

Hypothetically say they do patch most of the holes on the team. First they send Tapia for Hunter Pence, then they trade Familia for Ryan Dempster, and Flores and Marte for Sanchez and Infante. Then you have a team that is a Wild Card team (maybe), with a depleted farm system. Who the hell wants that?

3.) “Well if Sandy did not think the Mets should be buyers, then they should be sellers. Why not sell high on Wrongz, Dickey, and Santana?”

Oh! Oh! I know this one, it’s a two-parter.

  1. Who is there to trade? No one is taking Santana with that contract and injury history, unless the Mets eat the majority of the money involved in that. The Mets can’t afford to have more dead weight on the payroll (BAAAAAYYYY!!!), so that is out of the question. Dickey and Wright can be grouped together: both have insanely team-friendly contracts and can help in 2013, a year in which I am sure the Mets are making plans to try and contend in.
  2. Although I personally would have sold Byrdak and Hairston, there is very good logic why they did not. The value of the prospects/cash that they could get for Hairston and Byrdak are so low that it does not make it worth being labeled by the idiotic New York Media as two-faced liars after they flip-flopped from buying to selling. The value of ticket and merchandise sales outweigh acquiring some minor league depth.

Basically what I’m trying to say is whether or not the Mets added a reliever at the deadline this year has no effect on the long-term plan of the team. If anything it shows a commitment to staying the course.

Can’t everyone remember when we were expecting last place back in March? A .500 team still ain’t too shabby.

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75 comments

  1. Connor O'Brien

    Ding Ding Ding!

  2. Trs86

    Rational thought is not dead among Mets fans. Great job. Nothing changed with some arbitrary deadline.

  3. darknova306

    Saying this year’s Mets team can be a .500 team is like saying the Hindenburg landed ‘softly’. But, no, the lack of deadline deals doesn’t mean anything. They were nowhere near ‘a couple of players away’. That’s dreadful Omar bullshit thinking.

    1. SpencerRealDirtyMets

      Although I believer if healthy they win 85 games or so, I agree with the sentiment about the trades.

      Pelfrey, Gee, and Johan are all extremely valuable.

      1. darknova306

        And how many teams are healthy all year? Zero. The Mets are bad enough in all areas where they really need the starters to be perfect for them to win games. To expect the rotation to stay healthy all year and pitch as far over their heads as they did in May/June for all 6 months… that’s silly.

    2. NJstuckinTX

      Watching the video, that be dirigible didn’t land to hard, just a little hot.

      1. darknova306

        Ya know what? You’re not helping!

  4. Stick

    the flaw in the logic of doing nothing is that there are too many holes to fill in the offseason too, right? so ideally they would make moves when players are available.

    but the real issue is that the FO is not likely to be doing much to fill all these holes in the off season either, so no real reason to actually expect progress.

    1. SpencerRealDirtyMets

      Why do you think they won’t address needs in the offseason?

      1. Stick

        just the conclusion I agree with from looking at all the available info and track record.

  5. Stick

    oh, and the Phils did not gut the team by any stretch of the imagination, since vicky has been pretty weak so that is a wash, and Seirholz (sp?) has pretty much done what Pence did this year. so the team is roughly what it was this year (though with everyone back now) so really they are better than they were a month ago.

    and they are much better positioned for next year, with 30mill to spend on a couple of bats.

  6. apagano

    I agree with just about everything in this post. I live in Philly territory, so I admit to taking some pleasure in their Phailures this season. Outside of that you’re spot on. If you had fallen asleep for the last four months and the first thing you saw when you woke up was the NL standings, what would you say? I would say that this is pretty much exactly the record I would have expected. The only thing that would have ticked me off was finding out that I had missed the no-hitter. The fact that they overachieved for a while doesn’t really change anything when you step back and look at the big picture. This is a team with a lot of holes and not a lot of money. It was a known fact in April and that hasn’t really changed much at all. This is still a transitional team with a handful of real players and a bunch of guys in staff shirts. It will probably look similar next year with a few adjustments to make them incrementally better. Then you cross your fingers and wait for the giant contracts to expire so you can make bigger moves in a year. This trade deadline stuff is just a boring chapter the story arc.

    1. Trs86

      Man I am liking this guy. Rational, coherent thoughts can not be taken for granted in the Mets blogging world.

      1. apagano

        Thank you! I’m enjoying it here.

        1. Stick

          Hey, another poster behind the scenes in Philly territory. I’m in south Jersey. And detest the Phils with a passion, but still don’t consider them completely dead this year. Might just be paranoia, but until I see their “tragic #” at zero, I’m still afraid of them.

          and most likely, next year they will be right back on the top.

          1. apagano

            I don’t think they’re making a playoff run this year, but finishing ahead of the Mets remains a distinct possibility. I also agree that they could easily be back at the top next year. That’s why I’ve been quietly enjoying their misery this year without crowing about it. My friends here have gone back to breaking out their Eagles Jerseys in August just like the good ol days.

          2. Stick

            I hate the eagles and eagle fans even more than the Phils. At least I have the Giants to throw back in their faces!

  7. srt

    Good post.

    I can’t much agree with #1. Guess that makes me immature? My feelings towards watching Philly tank in last place are no different than hating on the Cards in the mid 80s or waiting for that Braves starting rotation to tank in the 90s. It’s a rivalry. Big part of the enjoyment of baseball, IMO. I’m not a casual Met fan. Short of wishing for injuries which is going too far – I have no problem saying ‘Yea’ watching the Phillies fall apart.

    #2 – Beating a dead horse there. I had no problem with not making any moves this trade deadline.

  8. gategem

    “Find me a team that lost two pitchers the caliber of Dillon Gee and Johan Santana, as well as a reliable innings eater such as Mike Pelfrey, and lived to tell the tale?”

    Duh…..The Yankees.

  9. gategem

    TRS, Spencer, Connor and Ceetar too bad for M. Donald Grant you guys weren’t born when he needed you. :-)

    Gentlemen, the Kool-Aid is cold. :-)

    1. gategem

      BTW Like others here I had no trouble with the Mets not making any moves at the trading deadline. But I have read that next years draft may actually be weaker than this years draft and over the years I’ve seen outstanding talent taken during supposedly weak drafts. But I’ve read that Theodore Stankiewicz was an exceptional talent and that trumps the overall strength of the draft about which I couldn’t care less.

      1. kingman 26

        Thank you for this.

        My points yesterday were based on a LOT of events over the last couple of years.

        NOT just the trade deadline.

        Not signing that 2nd round pitcher was crazy.

        But yes, TRS and Ceetar drink from the well of denial with much zest.

        Well, Ceetar built the well; TRS just visits a lot.

        1. Trs86

          Ok so you agree that Sandy is Grant. Ok

          1. gategem

            No one said Sandy is Grant. Grant had far more power in running the franchise than Sandy ever will. Grant controlled the economics of the team as well as the general philosophy. The Mets had a GM that reported to Grant. The Mets also didn’t have the financial problems that they presently have. Grant ran the Mets almost like a corporate raider. But nevertheless Grant could have used you guys in his PR department.

          2. kingman 26

            Sadly, this is what TRS has come to after spending most of the last year of his life at MMO.

            Below, he suggests I proposed that the Mets would/should “let Wright walk” and trade Harvey, when I never, ever mentioned such a thing, and actually specifically said the opposite about Harvey.

            And I also wrote/said/think that Alderson clearly is taking orders, while Grant was clearly doing what he felt was right and agreed with.

            It is a lot easier to defend your own specious argument and deride the very reasonable one of someone else when you create utterly false red herrings and straw men to swat down, as TRS has disappointingly done here.

          3. Trs86

            Let me rephrase Gate. You think Sandy is to blame for the Mets not being competitive this year? If you think so then yeah I guess I am a spokesman.

          4. wanny

            who was it yesterday that defended the mets’ deadline strategy by including carlos quintanilla as a deadline deal?

            funny.

          5. Trs86

            Uh that surely wasn’t I. Half the time I forget they traded him, lol.

          6. kingman 26

            Who the hell else Wanny–Ceetar!

            Who else would do that?

          7. gategem

            TRS I have never, ever said Sandy was to blame. If you would spend more time here at your own blog you would have seen that I specified that Sandy is performing his assignments as directed by the Wilpons and probably Selig very well. While his primary task seems to be to save the franchise for the Wilpons by judiciously cutting salary and spending what little payroll flexibility he has to maximize value he is also attempting to build a strong minor league base and construct a team from the bottom up. He is also the face of the franchise and has to at least make it seem that the Mets main emphasis is on winning today while building for the future. Sandy is in a difficult position and you gentlemen would be excellent in the PR department.

          8. Trs86

            The reason I asked that is that I am not being a spokesman for the Wilpons here. Just in the fact that Sandy does have a plan for the Mets to improve and it’s still intact.

            Also don’t buy into the fact that I am always on MmO either. I multitask when I am around but lately I have been too busy to be around. Besides I get enough whining at home, work and with my players so when it gets over saturated with whining and conspiracies I take a break.

      2. SpencerRealDirtyMets

        He was not an exceptional talent. He had one MLB pitch and a lot of the reason he was picked was was projection. There will be more of him.

  10. NJstuckinTX

    Would you trade Bay for Bell and Buck? That’s the silly rumor floating around, but I have to tell you I’d do it.

    1. srt

      I wouldn’t, unless they have some idea of flipping Bell to someone else in the off season or deadline next year.

      Reason I’m saying no is I believe Bell’s contract that this point would wind up costing more than what Bay has left (considering I don’t think there is any way on this green earth Bay’s vesting option kicks in).

      And IMO, Bell is just not worth it.

      1. Hazmet

        Hi, I read the article referred to and the money is actually about a wash as per the article. But I agree with you it doesn’t seem to make sense in less they are factoring in the Bay option year which would never be exercised. I think the Bell reference was 3 years remaining at $27M total.

        1. Stick

          bell is 2/18 after this. His total contract was 3/27 I think.

      2. NJstuckinTX

        I think the money is basically a wash between bay and the others, just spread out over another year. (I could be wrong on that, but my understanding is that it is close). It adds an arm to the BP, Buck has to be better than Johnson/Nickeas, and it subtracts Bay.

        In the end, it’s all just shuffling around sucky players.

        1. Trs86

          Ok so why would the Marlins do it?

          1. NJstuckinTX

            They don’t like Bell, need an OF player so they can move Logan morrison to 1B. Does anyone really know why the Marlins do what they do as it is?

          2. apagano

            The only motivation I can see on their end would be if they considered Bell a clubhouse problem and they didn’t think it was healthy for team chemistry to keep him around for two more years. Personality issues were at least in part behind the Hanley trade, so perhaps their FO views that as one of the reasons why the Marlins underachieved this year.

          3. Stick

            how could that team possibly have any chemistry at this point?

    2. Stick

      Saw that. Seems that the money was just about a wash, and yeah, I would take the chance. Maybe shame Bell into getting into shape again?

      but they do need pen and catching help much more than an OF that is useless (actually something beyond useless, in a negative way). Just not sure those 2 guys are it.

      but, if I had to chose, I would bet on Bell having a much better shot at rebounding than Bay.

    3. apagano

      The money is key to that deal because it isn’t exactly a wash. By my math the Mets would save about $4M next year, but then they’d be stuck with Bell at $9M in 2014. Oh, and Bell has a vesting option for 2015! Great!

      2013 Jason Bay – $19M (16M+3M buyout)

      2013 Bell + Buck – $15M

      2014 Bell – $9M

      Bell gets another $9M in 2015 if he gets 55 GF in 2014 or 100 GF in 2013-2014.

      1. Stick

        thanks. Did not realize Bell had a vesting option.

        but if there is one thing in life that has to be a lock, Bay is not getting 600 PAs in 2013.

        1. NJstuckinTX

          Nor Bell closing 100 games.

          All in all, it’s a much ado about nothing thing. But I will say, I’d rather see if Bell could be a useful BP guy again or Buck hit .200 (which is about 20 pts higher than our current backups) than get all frustrated with Bay and we DFA him. We can always DFA Bell and Buck just the same.

          And if the $ is that much of a prob, have FL toss in a couple mil.

          1. SaltyGary

            All set with this scenario. Bell hated the MEts for the way he was treated and Buck is never going to be much better than he currently is. One more year of Bay’s contract, just suck it up.

          2. Trs86

            The guy had a 5.00 era or something. I think he treated us wrong.

          3. wanny

            i think bell was pissed because he wanted to stay.

          4. apagano

            Upon further review, I didn’t account for the remaining 2012 salaries. If no money at all were exchanged, the Mets would have saved about $4M this year in addition to the $4M saved next year. So the Marlins wouldn’t have to kick in much cash to make it even. The million dollar question would be whether or not that $4M savings would be applied to next year’s budget or if the Wilpons would just use it to cover 2012 losses. Hmm. I might have just talked myself into being ok with that hypothetical trade.

          5. Trs86

            Whoops meant to put this here. Why would the Marlins do it?

          6. Stick

            why do the marlins do anything?

            that is why I said there had to be a $ competent involved where the Fish wanted money back most likely.

            that and they want out from under Bell!

  11. srt

    OT:

    http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/in-mets-clubhouse-tension-over-valdespins-t-shirt/?partner=rss&emc=rss

    Spin….LOL

    Know your place, Rook!

    1. Stick

      silly. But of course, no member of the media would ever try to blow out of proportion, instigate, or agitate to make a mountain out of a non existent mole hill, right?

    2. Hazmet

      I wonder if the words of advice Jose Reyes gave him when he was first called up kicked in quickly. Jose advised him to remember he’s a rookie and to not be too cocky, etc….

      In other news, I don’t know if you saw last night another umpire in milb ejected an organist after he played 3 Blind Mice after what he thought was a blown call. This apparently happened many years ago too on one occassion. Definitely a full moon evening…

      1. Stick

        I remember that story. Wasn’t it the dodgers (as in Brooklyn?) Don’t think it was Jane Jarvis…

  12. kingman 26

    It is really disappointing to be deliberately misrepresented by people who just want to believe the sun is shining while they are getting soaked by rain and surrounded by storms.

    I DID NOT whine for a trade, and I DID NOT make my analysis based solely or mainly on trade deadline inaction.

    I guess my pieces are too long and too complex for some, but my thesis–as clearly if verbosely stated–was based on YEARS of action, and was simply finally motivated by the request from a couple of loyal readers who seem to enjoy my perspectives.

    Sure TRS and Ceetar, they did not sign a fireballing 2nd round pick because they have A PLAN! They have A PLAN to do something better in the future.

    Sure they do!

    And sure Spencer, not signing that pitcher is GREAT! If he is an all star in 5 years, when he is striking out Met batters, we can all proudly remember how we stood our ground with his agent!

    Yea!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Wow.

    That is about all I can say regarding the incredible denial of obvious, objective reality.

    1. Trs86

      Going back to calling out those who disagree with your view and saying they are in denial. Have at it bipolar man. Now back to circumstance and reality.

      Do you understand the new draft system? I don’t completely but based on my understanding they get that pick and the extra cash next year. Sorry but there is no chance that the Wilpons are so concerned over cash that 50k got in the way of signing a player they really liked. If so answe this, why are Hairston and Byrdak still here? 50k is trivial compared to what they could have saved by trading them.

      Fact is we have no idea what was discussed or demands given during the deadline. What we know is there was absolutely no reason after the 12 game slide to use prospects or hell even cash which I am sure is still a concern if it can’t be returned in sales, to bring in mediocre players on a long shot.

      It’s not denial it’s the trade deadline did not change what I have viewed as their long term plan since Sandy came in. Neither did the first off season nor the last and honestly neither will this one. The plan was always 2014 and nothing I have seen about that has changed.

      Talk to me when they let Wright walk and trade Harvey for prospects.

      1. kingman 26

        “Talk to me when they let Wright walk and trade Harvey for prospects.”

        In my piece, which you probably did not read, I NEVER even suggested “letting Wright walk.” My thoughts were to POSSIBLY CONSIDER trading him IF you could get 2-3 top prospects.

        In my piece I specifically said Sandy knows HE CANNOT trade Harvey.

        You are commenting on something you either did not read or were unable to comprehend.

        Changing one’s opinions based on what one observes in the world is not being bipolar—it’s being intelligent.

        It is becoming far easier to see why you are so at home at MMO.

        The Core there never, ever would be flexible enough to change their minds either.

        1. SpencerRealDirtyMets

          And no, the core at MMO are awful because they make bullshit narratives up amongst themselves, and then trumpet them to everyone else as though they are logical.

          btw I am all for trading Wright this offseason.

        2. Trs86

          I never said that you said let Wright walk or trade Harvey, Mr. Rockwell. What I am saying is those things would convince me it’s only money and rolling over prospects. If it was only money why are Hairston and Byrdak here and why was Niese extended?

          You can throw out all the insults you want but at least I am consistent and don’t flip on things like a light switch in the bathroom. I said when Sandy came in the plan was for 2014 and nothing you have provided makes me have even the slightest desire to change my mind on that. So as far as I am concerned you can go back to the X-files to cook up the next conspiracy and it will have just as much weight.

          Look we all know money is a factor, of course it is. But to say there is no plan just because they aren’t spending money now then calling out others who see the plan as still intact is foolish. Who was it that was dusting off the float about a month ago and now they are doomed. What changed Mr. Rockwell?

    2. wanny

      i bet pitt would have liked to sign its first round pick too.

      1. Trs86

        I just think something changed with the Mets and their pick. The kid wouldn’t have walked for 50k nor would the Mets. I think once we start to understand the new system the we may be able to critique. Until then, sorry we have no right.

        1. NJstuckinTX

          considering that it was the kid at slot or the mets underslot by 50K, there must have been something that made it all go wrong.

    3. apagano

      Not signing the second round pick was a head-scratcher for sure, but I think there’s more to it than meets the eye. The 2011 draft signaled a change of direction for the Mets as far as their willingness to go overslot to sign high-upside high school talent. So why would the same front office not do it in 2012? Even with the rule changes, the Mets left money on the table when it was all said and done. It’s very plausible that there is another explanation that has nothing to do with the Wilpons being cheap or the front office being inept. They’ve been mum on the subject, which of course leaves it to us to figure out what might have happened. All we know is what has been reported in the press – that Stankiewicz was willing to sign for slot money but that the Mets never came close. What we don’t know is whether or not he had previously indicated that he would sign for less and then changed his mind, or whether the Mets discovered something after the draft that caused them to re-evaluate what they were willing to pay him. Or both. Most draft analysts thought he was a 3rd to 5th round talent, yet the Mets drafted him in the second round. To me that is an indication that either a) there was a verbal deal in place prior to the draft and then someone backed off on it or b) the Mets scouts really believed he was a second round talent. If it was the latter, then it makes no sense that they failed to sign him, which is why I lean towards the former.

      1. wanny

        I have read contrary reports that stated that he was considered a tough sign all along. The Mets have had success recently signing Arkansas commitments (Fullmer and Nimmo) and probably thought they could be successful with Dr. Galazkiewicz (showing my age with that reference).

        In any event, it is certainly not a cause for alarm. These things happen. And as you said, they have shown they are willing to pay high ceiling draft picks.

        They even went $100k over slot to sign 8th round pick Thomas Nido this year and went way over slot to sign Philip Evans last year.

        1. Trs86

          Yup again we shall see next year if there was a plan in not signing this kid but it wasn’t over 50 k.

          1. SpencerRealDirtyMets

            Ding Ding Ding We have a winner!

      2. SpencerRealDirtyMets

        What I believe happened is this:

        The Mets and Stankiewicz had a pre-draft deal in place, in which he agreed to sign for a certain underslot price. The Mets then intended to allocate that money to some of the other later picks that they failed to sign. His agent then came back after the draft and asked for more, leaving the Mets in a bad spot.

        I haven’t confirmed this with any sources, just a hunch.

    4. SpencerRealDirtyMets

      First of all this was no an attack on you in any way. Although I disagree with your post, I thought it was an excellent, well thought out piece. Certainly the best piece I have read regarding the anti-Sandy argument.

      And guys, Stankiewicz was not a fireballers. He had a decent fastball. I believe the report I heard was he sat 90-92 and touched 93. Thats a 55-60 fastball, not an 80.

  13. Trs86

    From Oleo when it happen.

    from what I understand the Mets would receive the 73rd pick in 2013 (a much stronger draft btw) as compensation for him not signing, plus have extra bonus money.

    I know the Mets being cheap is a very easyexcuse, but maybe there is a reason other than that for why they seemingly intentionally passed on him…

  14. wanny

    I see in one of the sidebars that people tweet michael baron seeking his opinions.

    WHY?

    1. SaltyGary

      Because when I want “Pitching Analysis” I want to get it from a sears catalog photographer.

      1. wanny

        You should tweet Brian Erni for your “position player analysis” and Mike “the personification of typographical and grammatical errors” Nichols for your “roster analysis.”

        I suspect they are as eminently qualified as the pitching guru.

        1. apagano

          They need to hire someone for “spelling, grammar and factual accuracy analysis.”

          1. SaltyGary

            Ya think LOL!

            BTW welcome, if you want to grab a avatar pick just go to gravatar.com

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