This morning The Wall Street Journal’s Brian Costa wrote an article “Payroll Picture Is Still Blurry” which highlights the unwillingness of the Mets ownership and Front office to discuss what the future payroll is going to be.
What’s that old saying? If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it must be a duck or is it if it looks broke and acts broke, then it must be broke? THEY ARE BROKE! Why are people even asking about it anymore? The Wilpon’s needed to sell shares of the team to pay off a MLB loan, a Bank of America Bridge Loan and to pay other outstanding expenditures. If they lost 70 million last year, and attendance goes lower, it doesn’t sound like they did anything to increase revenue this year, does it? Sure payroll was decreased by 50 million, but that sounds like treading water at best to me.
At this point I have no desire to let Sandy off the hook either. I have no problem with him not wanting to answer the number question right now. Remember last year? First he said 120, then, 110, then 100… The number wouldn’t stick most likely due to the outlook getting worse and worse and they needed to revise their austerity measures. Where I do blame him is there was complete inaction in attempting to make the team better at the trade deadline. I still cannot believe one move couldn’t have been made to help the bullpen out, or make a change to the outfield. Yes, there are too many holes to fix at one time, but at some point the team needs to move forward or it will continue to move back.
Now let’s look at the current payroll and next year’s obligations. Currently payroll is about 94.5 million. Next season by filling out a team with the same infield, Thole at C, Bay in OF, Harvey Niese Dickey Santana in the rotation and Francisco Parnell Edgin in the pen, you are looking at a 75 million dollar payroll. So the team will need to add about 13 more players to the active roster. I am sure many slots will be filled with the Duda and Valdespin types at a minimum salary, but it looks like if payroll is not increased that there is a max of 15 million that the team can invest in free agency. Now add the “what if’s” like Wright and Dickey being extended or restructured. The picture is looking grim folks. Unless the Wilpon’s make a decision to take on more losses to invest in the team, next season looks to be another year of holding on. As a hardcore fan I will hold on, but I will also hold onto my money and save it for a better product and we already see that the casual fans have done the same.
Payroll Picture Is Still Blurry by Brian Costa:
30 comments
Mr North Jersey
8/15/2012-2:45pm at 2:45 pm (UTC -4)
Ahh, Thank you Gary for this opinion piece. Much needed around here. Maybe there is some life at the site after all.
SaltyGary
8/15/2012-2:56pm at 2:56 pm (UTC -4)
It’s been a tough couple weeks as Mets fans Jerz, the team isn’t giving us much to write about. It would be nice though if the owners of the site showed their face here once in a while. I got $10 bucks you want to chip in $10 and buy it from them?
trs86
8/15/2012-8:42pm at 8:42 pm (UTC -4)
Hey I Have been around!
jessep
8/15/2012-2:47pm at 2:47 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t get the obsession with knowing in August 2012 what the payroll on April 2013 will be.
What does it matter right now? It doesn’t.
The final #’s on the year are not done, they have decisions to make IE Mike Pelfrey. Just because they don’t sign him doesn’t mean they should or will spend $6mil elsewhere.
That’s not how things work.
Knowing what the payroll is before you even know who will be on your roster and what potential free agents you may target is a false # anyway.
He could say $100m and if he lands on $99.99 people would call him a liar. So why bother?
SaltyGary
8/15/2012-3:33pm at 3:33 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks for stopping by Jessep.
Exactly to my point above, but don’t you think at some point they need to get past this story. This is a dark cloud hanging over the Wilpon’s and they need to demonstrate that the sun will come out.
jessep
8/15/2012-4:07pm at 4:07 pm (UTC -4)
Oh no I agree with that sentiment – but extending Wright before they have to will say more about the financial situation than some question about predicting the future will.
Stickguy
8/15/2012-5:17pm at 5:17 pm (UTC -4)
well, maybe not. If they are picking up his option anyway, that is in the 2013 budget. Signing him for 2014 might be a shot in the dark, but if they are so screwed financially that having Wright (at only a few million more) in 2014, after bay and Santana are off the books, is unmanageable, then they won’t own the team anyway, so they have nothing to lose!
could end up being Wright and no one else, but that is more Wright’s problem.
srt
8/15/2012-2:54pm at 2:54 pm (UTC -4)
‘THEY ARE BROKE! Why are people even asking about it anymore?’
The voice or reason.
I have no idea why some Met fans insist on disbelieving the Mets are broke. It’s been documented ad naseum.
It’s not speculation, it’s fact.
‘The picture is looking grim folks. Unless the Wilpon’s make a decision to take on more losses to invest in the team, next season looks to be another year of holding on.’
Could not agree more, Salty. The biggest acquisition we might see this off season is a Wright extension, possibly a RA one and maybe another contract for Terry.
Right now, 2013 isn’t shaping up to be any better than 2012.
Stickguy
8/15/2012-3:33pm at 3:33 pm (UTC -4)
you do though have to separate the Wilpons, and the team. The owners could be a bit tapped out, but if the team if cranking along turning a big profit, no worries.
but, even if they have money in the bank, owners normally do not fund a loss just as a hobby. the team is supposed to support itself. Remember the Twins under Pohlad (sp?) Dude was richer than the vaitcan, and only spent what the team generated.
even new owners are no guarantee. Sure, you get the feel good aspect of replacing Fred and jeff, but if they essentially take over all the debt and have to borrow more to pay to buy it, why would you expect them to add 10s of millions to the payroll right out of the gate?
I also don’t see why people are surprised/shocked that priority # 1-99 for them is keeping the team solvent. Put it in terms of them keeping the team in their control, but it is still about staying in the black.
srt
8/15/2012-3:47pm at 3:47 pm (UTC -4)
‘owners normally do not fund a loss just as a hobby. the team is supposed to support itself.’
Couldn’t agree more which is why I don’t think the owners are tapped out, I think the team is. I don’t think you can possibly separate the two. This is not like Loria who had to be hand slapped by MLB a couple of years ago to spend some profit sharing on the team.
The Mets appear to be flat broke. They’re are no profits.
srt
8/15/2012-3:49pm at 3:49 pm (UTC -4)
Shoot…
‘There are no profits.’
Hazmet
8/15/2012-7:08pm at 7:08 pm (UTC -4)
Only pundits and soothsayers.
Hazmet
8/15/2012-7:12pm at 7:12 pm (UTC -4)
Or, in the Wilpons case there are only “false profits”
bdum bum
gategem
8/15/2012-6:15pm at 6:15 pm (UTC -4)
Owning a team in a strong baseball market like New York represents a different potential scenario then say Minnesota. The owner of a franchise in a small market is aware that the potential maximum value of incoming resources may not be appreciably increased by investing in the team beyond what the team itself brings in. But right now the Wilpons are barely tapping the available potential resources of the New York market. Investing in the team could result in a lucrative payout. Unfortunately, investing in the team, as they have in the past, with no performance improvement is indeed risky but it is no different then any other business must face, albeit on a smaller level.
srt
8/15/2012-2:55pm at 2:55 pm (UTC -4)
OT:
Oops:
Giants outfielder Melky Cabrera has been suspended 50 games after testing positive for a performance enchancing drug, reports ESPN’s Jorge Arangure (on Twitter). MLB has confirmed the suspension, which takes effect immediately.
SaltyGary
8/15/2012-2:58pm at 2:58 pm (UTC -4)
This is just brutal for the Giants. So much for Melkey’s breakout year LOL.
srt
8/15/2012-3:02pm at 3:02 pm (UTC -4)
I was always on the fence about some of this new drug policy…but it is what it is now. I don’t really understand how these guys believe they can get away with it. Have to wonder if the competition is so fierce that taking that chance trumps common sense.
Stickguy
8/15/2012-3:34pm at 3:34 pm (UTC -4)
well, that may explain the whole career resurgence.
and man, cost him a whole shootload of money next year as a FA!
Mr North Jersey
8/15/2012-3:00pm at 3:00 pm (UTC -4)
The thing about the Wilpons is no one knows really what their financial situation is. It is ALL speculation resulting from educated guesses.
We know that the Madoff situation has been resolved where today the $162 million that they settled has already been reduced to somewhere between $81.9 million and $89 million due to the Wilpons being allowed to apply for $178 million as victims for losses from other funds they owned and that figure can still go down further by the time the Wilpons have to make their 1st payment.
We know they have some payments in other areas coming due soon but it has been suggested that they can also restructure those payments in a manner better suited for them so how big an impact those payments have also remain to be seen.
All we can do is watch the money trail and see where it indeed leads to. The resigning of Wright and or Dickey for one may prove to be telling but overall there is no way to truly know how the Wilpons are with their money situation right now.
NJstuckinTX
8/15/2012-3:05pm at 3:05 pm (UTC -4)
And that is just it. It’s all about the money. And if the money ain’t there, we don’t have to be happy about it but screaming at the Mets at the top of our lungs aint going to change the financial situation one bit.
NJstuckinTX
8/15/2012-3:01pm at 3:01 pm (UTC -4)
I wrote this, uh.. elsewhere, but I’ll repost here, as I am not going to retype this rambling mess.
“On the assumption that payroll stays flat, the team still has a majority of their payroll wrapped up in 3-4 players. Unless Santana or Wright are moved (Bay is not moveable), there really isn’t going to be a plethora of funds available. Yeah, you’ll have Pelf’s money and Rauch’s Money and Hairston’s and Carrasco’s… but that will be needed to spackle over the cracks, not fill major holes, per se.
So, you either patch it together another year and wait for Santana’s and Bay’s money to come off the books (which does not preclude Wright or Dickey being re-signed, as their incomes wouldn’t significantly increase over what they currently are) or you deal for prospects and fill in other needs with FAs. Example would be trade Wright for a top notch OF & C prospects + some others, slide Murph to 3B and sign an Aaron Hill type to play 2B(?). Heck, you could probably even trade Dickey for 2 decent prospects while you are at it. Not saying it’s possible or probable, but it is a way of spreading the proverbial wealth until Santana and Bay are gone and there is an extra 40 million or so to spread around.
So, patience or hit the red button and lay waste to stars.”
So, are we going to be majorly upset if they re-sign Wright and maybe Dickey but do little else for 2013?
srt
8/15/2012-3:04pm at 3:04 pm (UTC -4)
‘So, are we going to be majorly upset if they re-sign Wright and maybe Dickey but do little else for 2013?’
Yeah, I’m not gonna be all that happy. But it’s what I’m expecting b/c I just don’t see how they’re going to have any more money in ’13 then they do now. Attendance is down, revenues have to be down as well.
Maybe….just maybe…..we’ll be in better shape financially in 2014 when Johan and Bay’s contracts are off the books.
Trade Wright and/or Dickey?
La-La-La….I can’t hear you.
Mr North Jersey
8/15/2012-3:09pm at 3:09 pm (UTC -4)
“La-La-La….I can’t hear you.”
Ha!
NJstuckinTX
8/15/2012-3:10pm at 3:10 pm (UTC -4)
I can’t hear myself either.
gategem
8/15/2012-6:27pm at 6:27 pm (UTC -4)
Ralph Kiner tells a story of when Branch Rickey (one of the best GMs that has walked this earth; he built the Brooklyn Dodgers teams of the 1950’s) told Kiner after Kiner demanded a raise or threatened to hold out, that the Pirates could lose without him just as much as with him. The Mets will be on a tread mill until they can develop a winning team from within on a budget payroll that will spike attendance thus allowing for a future payroll increase. If trading RA and Wright will help accomplish this then they should go for it. Of course if they trade these guys and the returning prospects are a bust then 2012’s play level could go on ad infinitum.
Hazmet
8/15/2012-7:17pm at 7:17 pm (UTC -4)
I’ve switched into the camp that it’s not a matter of the Met’s resigning Wright it’s a matter of him looking to move on after the option year to go try to get a ring before he gets much older. After the option year David will not be back of his own accord. He’ll be headed towards 31 I believe after next year so time’s running out for him. And why would he stick around since Fred doesn’t consider him a star in the first place. Love ya David, and I’d hate to see you go, but do yourself a favor and run as fast as you can and improve your odds of getting a championship while you can.
darknova306
8/15/2012-3:02pm at 3:02 pm (UTC -4)
Now that the overachieving that led to the “Omar’s Team Is Great” headlines and “The Mets Are Trolling Baseball” nonsense, we get back to reality. In fairness, Costa’s article offered no new facts or actual insight, just restating stuff we already know.
We really don’t know what the payroll will be next year, and I’d wager that Alderson really has no idea yet, either. However, all indications are that the Wilpons are tight on finances with the team and, with the steadily declining attendance since Citi Field opened, aren’t looking to reinvest in the team until they get more of their debt in order.
The big problem right now, aside from figuring out where the maximum return for Wright will come from, is filling in the copious amount of holes on the roster. The outfield is a black hole of suck. Second base is one dimensional. The bullpen needs another restructuring. The catching situation needs to be solidified (likely why Kelly was brought in). And so forth. Those holes are all going to take time to fill, and the FA market is too thin to really get angry over a lack of acquisitions by the Mets this winter. A jump in payroll wouldn’t fix this team overnight. The team is in the process of hitting rock bottom in this dismal second half.
Mr North Jersey
8/15/2012-3:09pm at 3:09 pm (UTC -4)
“In fairness, Costa’s article offered no new facts or actual insight, just restating stuff we already know.”
Agreed.
kingman 26
8/15/2012-6:25pm at 6:25 pm (UTC -4)
They have nothing to spend, they owe countless millions, the new investors simply gave them funds to continue to meet debts and obligations, and this is what will be the picture for 2013 and beyond.
But as Ceetar said, we did DFA Quintanilla, so they DID make a move this deadline.
All hail The Plan!
gategem
8/15/2012-6:31pm at 6:31 pm (UTC -4)
You must be the new Hannibal Smith of “I love it when a plan comes together” fame.