I’m no baseball genius, I’m just a fan who watches a lot of baseball, both Met and opposing teams and I’ll say this regarding this year and next year.
If Sandy Alderson and Fred Wilpon think that they are going to walk out of this year’s Off Season with the signings of David Wright and R.A. Dickey and leave it at that….you might as well grow sunflowers in all the seats of Citi Field because that’s the only living going to stand this team next year.
Now I understand that there are budget restraints, even though Alderson stated that there would be money to pick up some additional players at the Trade Deadline, but still, this team needs something because they are a bad team….really bad.
So here’s what I think: Alderson is a moneyball guy. Now is his chance to show how moneyball works. Open up that book and start finding those cheap diamonds all over the league. Now, just for the record, I’m not sitting here wanting the Mets to go Marlin crazy. and sign a bunch of mercenaries. I know that, Alderson has no intentions on doing that, and I know that’s not the answer. Besides, the Mets tried that and it doens’t work.
But there has to be some changes here….or at least some hope for the future.
Yes, I know that Zack Wheeler is on the way.
And Matt Harvey will probably be a starter next April.
And I also know that firing Terry Collins is definitely not the answer…..the guy is doing the best he can with what he’s got. If anything he over achieved with this team.
But there’s got to be more.
Or else…..
Lots and lots of Sunflowers growing all over the place.
62 comments
rustyjr
8/22/2012-8:58am at 8:58 am (UTC -4)
Blame the owners – not Alderson – that is all !
kingman 26
8/22/2012-6:25pm at 6:25 pm (UTC -4)
Almost totally correct.
Alderson has very little money and very little in good prospects to work with, thanks to the Wilpons and Omar.
But, in retrospect, Sandy did a terrible job rebuilding the pen, and the Pagan trade—which looked OK at the time—has been a total disaster. Torres is a terrible player and Met luck turned Ramirez into crapola.
Stickguy
8/22/2012-7:23pm at 7:23 pm (UTC -4)
sometimes good ideas (trades/signing) just don’t work out. Happens to all teams, but as you note, it does not mean it was absolutely a bad idea at the time.
Connor O'Brien
8/22/2012-10:27pm at 10:27 pm (UTC -4)
Well, he clearly had some talent in the farm system, just didn’t know how to develop it (example: Pelfrey)
NJstuckinTX
8/22/2012-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
2013 is not going to be a fun year, regardless of what happens. They either trade Wright & Dickey and build for the future (2015) or they re-sign Wright & hopefully Dickey, roll the dice for 2013 (IE, don’t do much else at all) and add a couple Vets to the team in 2014 when some of the pitching kids are up on the big club and the money is off the books for Santana and Bay.
The only viable 3rd option I see is kind a hybrid of that where you re-sign Wright, trade Dickey for some prospects and a tiny bit more flexibility to hopefully add an OF bat. Then you springboard off that with the added flexibility of Bay’s and Santana’s $ off the books.
And the above is only on the assumption that the payroll cannot be increased. If it could be increased by, say, an extra 10 million, you can go forward with re-signing both those guys and plug some holes for 2013, hopefully have a better season and then either save 10 million the following year (with the salaries coming off the books) or stay at that level because the team will be doing well and the people will be coming to the stadium.
Take all of the above with a grain of salt.
SaltyGary
8/22/2012-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
I’m a little confused with your forth paragraph, you seem conflicted. You want money ball to happen but don’t spend like the Marlins. Moneyball is all about not spending money and focusing limited resources to players with specific skill sets.
Here is the problem with Moneyball (please note I have not read the book or watched the movie), the advantage is gone. When this philosophy was instituted it was new and something that no other team was instituting. Thats how they gained the advantage. Now advance statistics are engrained in every franchise so the advantage is back to scouting.
srt
8/22/2012-9:44am at 9:44 am (UTC -4)
You have a very good understanding of ‘Moneyball’ for someone who didn’t read the book or see the movie.
Those days are over.
Either they legitimately try and fill these holes we’ve got or 2013 will be a mirror of 2012. And I believe that’s exactly what it will be. They’re not spending any money until Johan and Bay’s contracts come off the books.
FPF
8/22/2012-10:18am at 10:18 am (UTC -4)
Agreed srt, this team has been lousy for years and the front office is as arrogant as they come. It ‘ll be interesting to see what they do if the team plays .100 ball the rest of the year. They might be able to compete in AAA next year, although that may be a push. GET OFF YOUR HANDS MANAGEMENT!!! You are running out of time with your fans.
SaltyGary
8/22/2012-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
LOL I think they have run out of time with a lot of fans already. It would be nice to see them move forward at some point…
wanny
8/22/2012-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
Taking Gary’s explanation a step further, Moneyball was not only about targeting specific skill sets… but specific undervalued skill sets. At the time it was OBP. Nowadays that is not an undervalued skill set.
Funny that the As have more recently begun targeting defense — something they did not during the original Moneyball era. That’s because the OBP guys are now getting paid and the defenders are no longer being paid.
The problem the Mets have is that the areas they are weakest in — almost everything but more specifically relief pitching and power — are guys who get paid big money.
NJstuckinTX
8/22/2012-12:55pm at 12:55 pm (UTC -4)
The only undervalued commodity these days is injury prone risk players. And they still cost a pretty penny.
SpencerRealDirtyMets
8/22/2012-11:52pm at 11:52 pm (UTC -4)
What in the hell are you talking about? Moneyball is about how a small market team exploited a market inefficiency to be able to compete in an unfair market.
It doesn’t apply to the Mets other than the fact that they are implementing some of the principles that are proven to work and are used by the majority of the teams in baseball.
srt
8/22/2012-9:40am at 9:40 am (UTC -4)
Well said, Gonzo.
And I agree with Rusty…….this is all on ownership.
SaltyGary
8/22/2012-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
Looking at the 25 man roster and the immediate minors these are probably the only guys that I don’t think are complete garbage at this point.
Davis
Murphy
Tejada
Hairston
Harvey
Niese
Dickey
Wheeler
Sure maybe Mejia and Familia will be nice bullpen additions but I frankly have no real hope for them at this point. Kirk and Duda? I really dont expect any impact from them. Duda got his shot, he had plenty of time to grow and he didn’t. Kirk is great in the field and not at the plate. To me this is all the team has and I really struggle to put Murphy on because I don’t feel he has a real place on the team if it was good. There is not a lot to work with here. The team is also in a spot where you can’t really blow anything up. Valuable position players are far off in the minors, the only thing they can truly do is start hitting free agency or swing trades.
NJstuckinTX
8/22/2012-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
And Hairston is no guarantee he’ll be back, either.
srt
8/22/2012-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
I’d resign Cedeno as well. As far as a infield backup, he’s been pretty good, especially his defense.
I like Baxter as a OF backup as well but given the fact that the OF is a mess, I have no idea who will be back there.
NJstuckinTX
8/22/2012-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
Unless he completely struggles, I’d figure Duda will be back next spring. Probably one of Kirk or Den Decks (more likely Kirk). Baxter will be there. And then…. who knows. Would certainly like to see Hairston back, but you still need about 1-2 certain OF players. Maybe they can find 1 on the open market. It’s a whole lot of i dunnos, i hopes and i can’t watches for the upcoming year in the OF.
srt
8/22/2012-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
Wait….you left off Wright?
Stickguy
8/22/2012-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
good point. did not even notice that, probably because it was obvious he was on it! If that makes sense.
Good news? that list has 80% of a starting rotation, and really, that is the hardest thing to build. much easier to find a veteran bat to come in to play OF if you need it.
srt
8/22/2012-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
No argument from me on the SP.
So for the first time in several years, we’ve got a potentially good starting rotation….but a very thin cast of characters to support them.
Stickguy
8/22/2012-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
It worked in ’73. heck, ’69 too for the most part.
srt
8/22/2012-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
’73 and especially ’69 we had good defense teams though.
The defense this year? Not looking at stats, just the eyeball test…well, let’s just say it’s not been very good.
SaltyGary
8/22/2012-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
haha I did, is that some kind of omen?
srt
8/22/2012-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
LOL…..seriously, they need to resign Wright. If they don’t, it’s what I’ve said all along. It’s about the money and nothing but the money.
Stickguy
8/22/2012-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
well, ever since the dawn of FA, it has always been about the money for the players. So why shouldn’t it be about the $ for the owners too?
any business first and foremost is going to want to be operating in the black, so I don’t have any problem with the Mets trying to do it too. Every team in MLB does it.
hell, if you want to rip the team away from the Met owners because they aren’t spending more than 95mill, better take away the 16 teams that spend less away from their owners too, including the Braves (those tightwads won’t even break 90mill!)
srt
8/22/2012-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
Well, that’s not exactly what I’m saying here….
No need to spend Yankee money to field a good team. I agree with that.
However, letting homegrown stars walk b/c you won’t or can’t pay them the going rate? Just smacks of being cheap. And truthfully, I don’t think the Wilpons are cheap. I think after the Madoff debacle the Mets are just flat broke.
Stickguy
8/22/2012-10:30am at 10:30 am (UTC -4)
Am I the only one (actually, Conner agrees with me I think!) that does nto get all excited about the “home grown” aspect?
I would rather look at it more objectively, in terms if the guy is worth it, for what he will give you in the future. Sure, a small premium maybe for meritorious service, but nothing crazy.
so I would look at Wright (as with Reyes) in terms of just being another FA in determining what he is worth (and what the team would be willing to go on him)
other way to view it, pretend he was on the Phillies and becoming a FA. How many years/$ would you go on him?
once you have that, how much more are you willing to go because he came up through the system?
I think letting him go would really be a moneyball move. There is pretty clear evidence that you get more production for way less money prior to FA, and the teams that sign (most) big $ FAs get the decline phase, and injury years.
srt
8/22/2012-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
IDK, I think the ‘homegrown’ aspect lends itself to being a bit more special for the fans.
Obviously, not saying to retain players who don’t fit the need or aren’t worth the money just b/c they’re homegrown.
But…Reyes was the best homegrown SS we ever had.
Wright is the best homegrown 3rd baseman we ever had.
I understand the concept of what you’re calling Moneyball.
Obviously you are striving to have a team of all players you’ve got during their prime, without having to pay big bucks for that production.
When Reyes walked, we obviously had a very creditable SS waiting to step in. I like Tejada and even though I wanted Reyes resigned, I’ve got no problem with Tejada being our SS now.
But Wright? Going into 2013, I don’t see any creditable prospect waiting to step into that position. One might emerge going into the end of next year but that remains to be seen.
SaltyGary
8/22/2012-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
I normally don’t get too caught up in the home grown thing. With Wright I don’t think he is a superstar by any means and I’ve always looked at him as a table setter type of guy, but I want him here for his career.
He has always been the accountable one. He is the one with the Mets all time offensive records (not that hard to achieve) and I want him to be this generations lifetime ambassador. Sure, Seaver spent half his career away and he is still “The Man” but think of all the hurt that trade caused. By no means do I think trading Wright would even compare to what happened then but wouldn’t be nice to have a home grown player that grew up a Mets fan that crushes the Mets all time records so they wont be touched and force him to do every public Mets event until he is 90 and then start to cut his schedule back once hes in a wheel chair? Sounds very selfish but I want that.
darknova306
8/22/2012-1:12pm at 1:12 pm (UTC -4)
The homegrown thing is part of the sentimental aspect of being a fan. I don’t buy into it very much, but just looking at my twitter feed I can see that tons of people develop special emotional connections with certain players (for whatever individual reason). I couldn’t care less about the homegrown thing, Piazza is my all time favorite Met and was nowhere close to homegrown, so it’s all about player performance and value to me.
Stickguy
8/22/2012-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)
I would not be so quick to write off Duda. He will be back (well, at least his bat will).
besides, the NL will have the DH by 2014 at the latest. Has to happen (since the AL is not going to give it up) and the leagues need to be standardized with daily inter league play now.
srt
8/22/2012-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
‘the NL will have the DH by 2014 at the latest….’
Shut up.
Stickguy
8/22/2012-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
something has to happen. It has always been a problem (since IL play came in) and will really come to a head having it all year long.
so unless you think the Al is giving up the DH, what is the other alternative?
srt
8/22/2012-10:27am at 10:27 am (UTC -4)
I hate the DH…
They’ve been doing this for how many years now?
Are you saying with the increase next season in IL play they’ll be looking to try and move the DH to the Nat league too? If yes, I’ve been reading the same thing.
IMO, it’s not going to happen. It’ll be interesting to watch though.
I don’t know why MLB ever allowed one league to institute it w/o the other to start with.
SpencerRealDirtyMets
8/22/2012-11:54pm at 11:54 pm (UTC -4)
Torres will be back and he is very good.
Stickguy
8/22/2012-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
I am still not sure what moneyball book that would be.
Are you just saying the obvious, that if payroll is limited (and still, the Mets are in the top 1/2 of MLB in payroll, and ahead of the Braves and Nats, so they are not the old As), the Mets need to find some cheaper guys that will have production above their salary? I think these days, every team is looking for that!
other than that (finding undervalued assets), the tenets that probably need to apply (and these are probably not spelled out in moneyball, more like practical applications?) are filling out the pen with cheaper homegrown players, and using platoons to turn 2 guys with big splits into 1 very good starter.
srt
8/22/2012-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
Oh boy…reading over on MLBTR that Swisher is going to be asking for a six figure deal, north of 100 MIL.
If Swisher is asking for that, can’t imagine what Wright will be asking for.
Attendance is down, middle class disposable cash is non existent, economy is in the tanker….yet GMs are still going to be doing these types of deals? No wonder ticket prices are what they are.
SaltyGary
8/22/2012-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
There is no was Swisher is going to get that kind of money. He is getting 10m right now and I don’t see why he should get pain any more than that for a season. He is a great role player but the guys that get 100m (not including Werth) are players that have a major impact on a team and he does not.
I just looked up his home/away splits and I am shocked out how even they are seeing he is playing in that bandbox. The lineup he is in helps his numbers I imagine.
srt
8/22/2012-12:32pm at 12:32 pm (UTC -4)
I guess that’s his agent’s job though. Ask for the moon, you might get one star.
I can’t imagine Swisher getting that kind of money.
Then again, I didn’t see Werth getting what he did either.
NJstuckinTX
8/22/2012-12:52pm at 12:52 pm (UTC -4)
The guy writing that article said he expected him to get like 3 years, 33 million or something in that ball park. not quite Werth money.
Connor O'Brien
8/22/2012-10:29pm at 10:29 pm (UTC -4)
I think he signs similar deal to what Jason Bay got 4 yr 60-70million
jessep
8/22/2012-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
He can ask for whatever he wants. Doesn’t mean he won’t get laughed out of the room.
Mr North Jersey
8/22/2012-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
This
kingman 26
8/22/2012-6:23pm at 6:23 pm (UTC -4)
The Mets have EIGHTY MILLION dollars committed to SIX players in 2013—Johan and Bay with their obvious 2014 buyouts which the Mets will exercise, Wright, Dickey, Niese, and Francisco.
So, for 19 other players, we are talking 10-20 million.
The team will bring back Thole, Ike, Tejada, and the rotation will be Dickey, Johan, Niese, Gee, and Harvey, the pen will have Frank, Parnell, and Edgin, and the outfield will have Baxter starting along with the better of Duda/Kirk/Valdy/Den Dekker, and we have already been primed for Turner as a cheap replacement for Hairston’s OF depth.
No matter how one wants to view it, there is no chance anything of significance happens this offseason. Zero, nada, zilch, zip. We will see a couple of new bullpen arms, and maybe a mediocre outfielder.
If the Wilpons intend to spend, it will only be after Johan and Bay are off the books.
As for Sandy? I think he is counting the days until he can leave what is probably a totally miserable job. I highly doubt he is anywhere near as motivated as he was in Oakland over 20 years ago.
His assistants? Bringing us the next Brad Emaus?
Sorry folks, but my optimism is limited to what could be a very good starting rotation in 2013.
This team stinks, and the illusion of being good in the first half was largely due to Wright and Dickey having the best 3 months of their careers, playing some very good teams when they were down, and a hell of a lot of luck.
It is time for Met fans to take a lesson from late 1970s Giants fans and take action.
Watch for an opinion piece fleshing this out in the coming days.
darknova306
8/22/2012-6:56pm at 6:56 pm (UTC -4)
Well played, Kong. Completely agree. These owners aren’t spending, and I feel bad for Sandy having to deal with this miserable assignment.
kingman 26
8/22/2012-6:59pm at 6:59 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks Dark, and I agree.
Sandy will run for the hills as soon as Bud allows it.
Maybe we see more spending and improvements in 2014, but 2013 will be 2012 minus the fluke great start.
Think about it–80 mil for 6 players in 2013. It is so f***ed up, it is almost funny. Almost.
darknova306
8/22/2012-7:11pm at 7:11 pm (UTC -4)
It’s Omarian, which was overlooked while the team was winning games, but has become an 800lb gorilla now that the team has been crap for years. Omar was a disaster, and everyone wanted him gone, now they retroactively praise him all over the place online. Oy.
Look at all those crappy homegrown players that hustle back to the dugout after striking out! Praise Omar!
kingman 26
8/22/2012-7:17pm at 7:17 pm (UTC -4)
People praising Omar are utter dipsh*ts.
Who is any good?
Dickey and Harvey hopefully.
Who else?
It is as you say. Omar’s players are a bunch of sh*t.
wanny
8/22/2012-10:45pm at 10:45 pm (UTC -4)
agree all around. just dont exclude tejada as a guy that omar can take credit for even though he likely had nothing to do with the signing.
darknova306
8/22/2012-11:02pm at 11:02 pm (UTC -4)
Fair point. I really don’t even remember how Tejada was found/signed/etc at this point.
Stickguy
8/22/2012-7:27pm at 7:27 pm (UTC -4)
6 for 80 is fine. As long as they are the quality of players that deserve the pay, and you have a $140mill+ payroll (meaning lots of money for the other 19 guys).
And like I have said, Sandy is really spending quite a bit of money ($95 mill puts them in the top half of all of MLB). He just doesn’t have much liquid right now, because Omar basically spent his entire budget 2 the year before he showed up!
srt
8/22/2012-10:46pm at 10:46 pm (UTC -4)
This.
Stickguy
8/22/2012-7:24pm at 7:24 pm (UTC -4)
You go girl.
kingman 26
8/22/2012-8:11pm at 8:11 pm (UTC -4)
LOL!
Hazmet
8/22/2012-7:11pm at 7:11 pm (UTC -4)
Well I don’t know if anyone caught Sandy on Francessa in the past hour or so and I really felt bad for him. He did this entire analogy about how building the team is like buying a house and then went into how his wife and he looked at 20 houses before they bought but when they bought they did it in 6 hours. Is analogy being the first 2 years they wanted to know what they did and didn’t have with the team being akin to looking at 20 houses before knowing exactly what they wanted and how to move to get it. And then stating that they now know what the team is and it’s time to make some moves this offseason.
Well that’s all good and fine, but, Sandy, how to move and with what? When asked his first option was via trade and he stated how they have depth in pitching prospects down in Brooklyn. Really, Brooklyn? Like you’re going to have anything to package here with some unproven development league pitchers to bring back a bat. Nonsense.
So while I totally get the part about finding what you have in the cupboard to know what you have to do it doesn’t change the fact that their ain’t no dough and no expendable chips that will bring back a big bat. So yeah, I feel bad for him if he’s actually believing this offseason he’ll be able to make meaningful moves.
The line of the interview to me was on the pen where he said “yeah, the pen, mia culpa”. If left to his own devices with cash he could get this turned around but lacking the later it shall remain mostly cloudy with intense dissapointment expected.
srt
8/22/2012-10:44pm at 10:44 pm (UTC -4)
‘If left to his own devices with cash he could get this turned around but lacking the later it shall remain mostly cloudy with intense disappointment expected.’
Couldn’t agree more.
NJstuckinTX
8/22/2012-8:53pm at 8:53 pm (UTC -4)
Random points.
I think Edison Volquez is worth picking up on waivers.
I think next year is going to suck.
I think I miss the muppets on prime time TV.
I think Kong is right in that Sandy is right in that he can’t wait to get the hell out of Dodge, err, Flushing.
I also think that he’s the next commish, so much like Shawshank, he’s currently crawling through that pipe and shall soon be on his way to Mexico (read: Commish).
I think the sun will come out tomorrow, if tomorrow is in the spring of 2014.
I just stopped thinking.
Connor O'Brien
8/22/2012-10:34pm at 10:34 pm (UTC -4)
volquez no way. just another Ollie Perez 5.0 BB/9 career. had one good season. ridiculously wild. wouldn’t touch him. also, can’t stay healthy…
next year is going to be like this year…. which was like last year… which was sorta like 2010… …
NJstuckinTX
8/22/2012-10:55pm at 10:55 pm (UTC -4)
Yes, but he doesn’t cost 12 or 13 mil…
kingman 26
8/22/2012-11:28pm at 11:28 pm (UTC -4)
Hahaha!
Thanks NJ and LOL all around.
OMG does this team SUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SpencerRealDirtyMets
8/22/2012-11:46pm at 11:46 pm (UTC -4)
Raise your hand if you read and understood Moneyball.
NJstuckinTX
8/23/2012-7:47am at 7:47 am (UTC -4)
I raised my hand but wrote this comment too, as I wasn’t sure any could see.