Per a challenge from Salty, I have decided to write the article a little premature.
At the beginning of the season I wrote the following:
Looking at 1B in the NL East it’s hard to not let my biases show through. For one thing I hate the Phillies in general and have never been a big fan of Ryan Howard. Now with his injury to his overly large lower half I have to wonder how much his numbers will suffer. What is clear however is that his strangle hold on the NL East’s best 1B has loosened its grip or has it even disappeared?
Should we go last to first on this one?
#5 The Nationals: One would assume that their starting 1B will be LaRoche. I could go on and on how I think that this team missed the boat not offering Fielder the moon but that’s moot at this point. If it is indeed LaRoche then they need to hope he is healthy and just cover their eyes in the first half. Adam is a notoriously slow starter mustering up only a .246, .324, .435, .758 slash line for his career in the first half. Combine that with an injury plagued 2011 and a lot of bouncing around in 2010 and you get a big question mark. So why do I think that it may not be Adam roaming the 1st base bag? Davey wants him some Harper. If Harper does break camp will they go with Werth in CF? That certainly is not helping your pitching staff to have an OF of Morse, Werth and Harper. My prediction is that while Harper may not make the opening day roster, if LaRoche does not come to hit then Morse will be taking a long diagonal walk.
#4 Gabby Sanchez, the James Loney of the NL East. Tons of potential but he’s not a prospect anymore. It’s time for him to put together a stud season if he wants to move up this list. Gabby was able to ward off a sophomore slump last year in his 2nd full season but he certainly did not take another step forward either. So far his career slash line is almost identical to what he put up last year. .260′s BA with a mid .340′s OBP and around 15-20 HR. He does play decent defense but in a power position those numbers are just not going to get it done. However, I actually think this might be the year he puts it together. I expect him to make a push towards being more of a .275-.280 guy with 25 HR and 90 RBI. For now though he gets the #4.
#3 Freddie Freeman, this one was tough. At one point I had him below Gabby because he has only done it one year and at one point I was ready to put him ahead of Ryan Howard. Freeman is just a plain professional. Defensively he may be the Gold Glove standard for many years to come. Offensively in his first full season he put up an OPS+ of 118 with 21 HR and 32 doubles in a lineup that was often starved for other offensive contributions. After a red hot July he did limp to the finish last year with a mediocre August and awful September. Did he get tired or did he get figured out? That will be something to watch in early 2012.
#2 Ryan Howard, I told you I could not let my bias go on this one. I can’t stand the Phillies and think that Howard might be one of the more overrated players in the league… again one man’s opinion. For the 2nd straight year Howard’s BA, OBP, and SLG all took large hits. While he was still good for 33 HR and 116 RBI, his defense continued to be suspect and his hitting was pitiful away from the friendly confines of the Sandlot. That being said, based on numbers alone he should be ranked first so my next comment will be viewed as hypocritical of course. His injury is something that may effect him dramatically going forward. Howard is a BIG man and dealing with an Achilles injury for a guy his size is nothing to laugh about. After listening to Cliff Floyd on MLBN on this topic I really think he has something, it may take away a lot of power from a guy who was already seeing a decline.
#1 Homer Davis, I mean Ike Davis. Homer just describes me when it comes to Ike. I listen to a lot of MLBN due to my travel time. I find it a great listen regardless of the show and while I don’t agree with a lot of what they say, I agree with this one (go figure). At various points they have proposed that with Fielder and Pujols jumping ship Ike Davis may be 2nd to only Joey Votto. Now let me say this, if it is true then it may be a distant 2nd for sure. However, what’s not to like about how Ike started the season? A 155 OPS+ would put him near the top of the league for sure, can he maintain that level of offense while playing incredible defense as well? Who says there is nothing to watch for on the Mets this year?
Flash to today:
So a lot has changed this year,
First glance:
| Name | Age | PA | 2B | HR | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | WAR | Dol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam LaRoche | 32 | 548 | 27 | 29 | 64 | 92 | .270 | .343 | .511 | .855 | 3.1 | $13.9 | |
| Freddie Freeman | 22 | 528 | 30 | 19 | 80 | 84 | .266 | .350 | .461 | .811 | 2.4 | $10.8 | |
| Ryan Howard | 32 | 210 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 36 | .239 | .324 | .446 | .769 | -0.4 | ($2.0) | |
| Ike Davis | 25 | 492 | 22 | 26 | 56 | 77 | .224 | .299 | .451 | .750 | 0.9 | $4.1 | |
| Gaby Sanchez | 28 | 267 | 14 | 5 | 22 | 23 | .225 | .273 | .341 | .615 | -0.4 | ($1.7 |
End of story right?
How about just the last 30 days?
| Name | Age | PA | 2B | HR | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | WAR | Dol | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Davis | 25 | 97 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 16 | .272 | .381 | .543 | .925 | 0.8 | $3.6 | ||
| Gaby Sanchez | 28 | 54 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 5 | .300 | .352 | .500 | .852 | 0.4 | $1.9 | ||
| Freddie Freeman | 22 | 115 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 16 | .207 | .357 | .446 | .802 | 0.6 | $2.5 | ||
| Ryan Howard | 32 | 114 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 24 | .273 | .351 | .485 | .836 | -0.1 | ($0.3) | ||
| Adam LaRoche | 32 | 115 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 20 | .257 | .330 | .475 | .806 | 0.5 | $2.2 |
I know, I know, I am cheating now.
So what is the answer? Most likely somewhere in between so if I were asked today what those rankings would be, would they have changed? Yeah. A little. I can’t possibly have Ike as the number 1 ranked 1B in the NL East. Unfortunately he has to go out and produce again for a longer period before I can again post him at the top. The homer in me wants to throw him right back up there but man I just can’t do it yet.
Where am I today?;
#1 Freddie Freeman: You just can’t ignore what a solid season he is having and the defense that goes behind it.
#2 Adam LaRoche: Yeah, you could make a case for worst to first here. We know LaRoche can hit but since when does it do it for an entire year? I guess that’s one of the many reasons it’s the Nats to lose this year.
#3 Ike Davis: See I am still a slight homer. Ike’s 2nd half at least has me hoping and as NJ said if Ike can net you 26 HR and 77 RBI with 25 games left to go in a bad season? Think what he could do in a good one. For the future of the Mets, they need Ike to firmly plant himself back in the discussion of great young sluggers.
#4 Ryan Howard: Thing is looking at Howard I just see a guy going down not up. Of course that is the seal of doom and next year Ryan will win the Comeback Player Of The Year Award. Perhaps as always it is wishful thinking that he is in decline but there is something missing.
#5 Gabby Sanchez: Perhaps he too will do well now that he is out of the dysfunctional circus that is the Marlins. Hard to tell what effect a clubhouse like that has on a young hitter.
OK there Salty. Have at it. You’re up next!
Thanks to Fangraphs for the information.
.
14 comments
Mr North Jersey
9/7/2012-4:02pm at 4:02 pm (UTC -4)
Ike’s past has shown he has excelled at every level that is why this season was so much of a surprise. Now we are seeing that he seems to have broken through what was probably the worst stretch of his career.
Don’t be surprised to see Ike become a multi Silver Slugging 1st baseman in the future. He has the tools to possibly be that good.
TRS86
9/7/2012-4:05pm at 4:05 pm (UTC -4)
Back to baseball…
I really can’t understand how myths and legends seem to effect baseball. Just when you think you got it figured out and things like clutch and sophomore slumps are products of sample size, they come up and bite you in the ass.
I sure hope this is indeed a sophomore slump but damn did Ike let me down this year and I don’t like being made look bad
What we do know is that if the Mets are going to do a damn thing in the next 3-5 years they sure the hell can’t go around replacing positions that were supposed to be locks so Ike better keep getting it together and next year put together the season I expected this year.
Stickguy
9/7/2012-4:31pm at 4:31 pm (UTC -4)
hard to say how much was just sophomore, an how much was missing almost a full year of time. Reyes and beltran too a long time to get back up to speed after long injury layoffs too. Of course, Ike took it to a whole nother (lower) level!
Stickguy
9/7/2012-4:29pm at 4:29 pm (UTC -4)
factoring in age and future potential (old and young) Ike and Freddy should be the guys in the future. Laroche, this isn’t sustainable is it? ALl part of the Nats dream season? Could be wrong, but I expect regression next year.
and I too would not be surprised to see Howard rebound significantly next year. I don’t think he is even back to 100% at this point. But, another off season to recover and he could bounce back..
I think Freeman will beat out Ike next year, but both will take a step up. Howard won’t suck s bad. Not even sure laroche will be in Washington, and I have no clue who the hell plays 1B for the Fish now.
Oh, and Ike has to round out his overall hitting (average, OBP, rbis, hitting lefties) and become less of a 1 trick pony next year year (Kingman part II right now!). If he can do that, big numbers will follow.
srt
9/7/2012-7:09pm at 7:09 pm (UTC -4)
I would expect Howard to improve next year over what he was this year. But I don’t expect him to produce like he did before he signed that mega contract. If you look at his numbers, he was regressing a bit before he got hurt.
NJstuckinTX
9/7/2012-4:56pm at 4:56 pm (UTC -4)
I think you have the list correct. And I think our visions of Ike being a .300/40/100 guy are gone and insert the .260/30/80. but that ain’t all that bad.
I will say, that, if you ranked 1B by division, this is a fairly weak one compared to the rest of the league.
Stickguy
9/7/2012-6:52pm at 6:52 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with the .260, but the 30 should be easy, so make that 30-36, and 80 seems low. say, 95-110 hitting cleanup.
darknova306
9/7/2012-5:11pm at 5:11 pm (UTC -4)
My expectations of Ike at this point are around the “Adam Dunn Lite” level. Mediocre average, decent walk rate, lots of Ks, 25-35 HR power. Sort of a blend of Kingman and Dunn. I’ll take that unless something better comes along cheap.
Hazmet
9/7/2012-6:45pm at 6:45 pm (UTC -4)
People just gloss over now the fact that this year he was coming back from a career threatening injury and minimize the impact that can have on a player. That combined with his respitory deal Ike had a lot to overcome. That and the fact that this is basically his second year and he is still getting eaten up by lefties and his youth still has that stubborn streak in him when it comes to taking advice on hitting. Ike will be fine and his average will be much better next year, book it. I expect him to be a .290 – .310 hitter with the 30/100 capability in the power category. A good off season of work and Ike will be ready to get his average back up. He’s too proud a player to stand for just posting decent power numbers and letting his average be as poor as it has been this year and he has the talent to make that improvement happen. And look at it this way, he’s got his ASU alumni like Reggie Jackson available to whisper in his ear like earlier in the season. Ike will be fine.
srt
9/7/2012-7:08pm at 7:08 pm (UTC -4)
Good article.
You weren’t alone in those rankings at the beginning of the season.
I’m looking for improvement by Ike next season. Hard to pinpoint just what attributed to that awful first 3 months or so but I’d have to believe it was a combination of:
- sophomore year
- Valley fever
- back after missing a good chunk of the last season
I really believe it had a lot more to do with the third reason and a bit with the first. He wasn’t established enough to just pick up where he left off after he was hurt.
wanny
9/7/2012-9:11pm at 9:11 pm (UTC -4)
Slugging .511 while playing home games in Washington is nothing to sneeze at. This is the season Adam LaRoche has been expected to have for years. It wasn’t until hope was finally lost that he finally reached his potential.
I say he is not only the best NL East 1B this year, but most likely one of the division’s MVPs for his worth to his team. Washington has excellent pitching but with Harper’s ups and downs, Morse’s and Werths’ injuries, it was really necessary for someone to step up to support Zimmerman. LaRoche and Desmond have been those guys.
Edwin
9/8/2012-12:02am at 12:02 am (UTC -4)
Isn’t Gaby Sanchez with the Pirates?
Trs86
9/8/2012-12:34am at 12:34 am (UTC -4)
Welcome to the site. Yes he is Edwin. He was traded this year after being sent down to the minors. However this was a follow up piece to the one in the spring so I just compared the stats of the original five players, as I said though maybe getting away from the Marlins will help.
NJstuckinTX
9/8/2012-9:42am at 9:42 am (UTC -4)
That is not the most flattering of pictures for Ike.