With the end of the season upon us, the off-season for the Mets is about to begin, and that means a lot of roster movement. Part of that roster movement is preparation for the Rule 5 Draft at the Winter Meetings. November 20th is the last day players can be added to the 40-man roster in order to be protected. So let’s take a look at some notable guys that are Rule 5 eligible this year.
Zack Wheeler – I don’t know what it is, but I’ve got a hunch Wheeler will be protected. I can’t explain it, it’s just a feeling I have. Just to clear things up regarding Wheeler: he was drafted out of high school four years ago, which would ordinarily mean he wouldn’t be eligible until next off season, but (and I don’t know the back story why) he was 19 when he was drafted out of high school, so he only got four years.
Chris Schwinden – The Mets like having Schwinden stashed in the minors, but not enough to protect him. I can actually envision a scenario in which Schwinden has trouble making the AAA rotation, which speaks to the depth the Mets have there if everyone’s healthy. It wouldn’t be shocking if someone took him, as three other teams claimed in on waivers last year, but if that happens it’s no great loss.
Josh Satin – He’s a nice AAA player, but he doesn’t have the tools or the versatility to be a useful MLB bench player. He’ll be in Vegas next summer.
Eric Campbell – After a wretched 2011, Campbell bounced back nicely in 2012. He may be able to stick on an MLB roster as a bench player for a whole season, but he doesn’t have the upside to make it worthwhile.
Juan Centeno – Protecting Centeno is a possibility. He’s the closest catcher to contributing that the Mets have in their farm system, but he’s undersized, a light hitter, and nothing special defensively. I’m not sure if another team would look to draft him, but it would be unfortunate to lose another catcher in rule 5.
Francisco Pena – He’s been in the organization a long time and he’s been rule 5 eligible a long time, but Pena is finally old enough for teams to consider taking him, after finishing the season in AA. Don’t be surprised if he gets protected, because Terry Collins has said he’s curious and would probably like to take a look at him in spring training. Also, the genes, the body, and the defensive skill set are intriguing enough for a team to pick him, even though at this point it’s hard to conceive him staying on a major league roster for an entire season.
Allan Dykstra – If you don’t remember, Dykstra came over to the Mets in exchange for Eddie Kunz. He’s hit plenty of homeruns, but he doesn’t do much else and the Mets appear set at first base for the foreseeable future. I still wouldn’t expect anybody to draft him, but I’ve been wrong before.
Gonzalez Germen – Not a guy worth protecting, but I could stick as a middle reliever or long man in a major league bullpen next year. He’s got one of the better changeups in the farm system, so he could face both righties and lefties. Still, he’s not the prototypical rule 5 selection.
Darin Gorski – This could go either way. Gorski was fantastic in 2011, being named Florida State League pitcher of the year, but he was fairly average in AA in 2012. He’s definitely vulnerable to getting picked if left unprotected, but the Mets do have some rotation depth and Gorski still hasn’t been exposed to AAA, so it’ll be a tough call.
Brad Holt – He was actually decent coming out of the Binghamton bullpen for much of the year, but he no longer resembles a first round draft pick.
Jefry Marte – This is another tough call. Being so young and such a liability on defense makes it hard to imagine Marte sticking on a major league roster for an entire year. At the same time, Marte is a legitimate prospect that is worth keeping an eye on and it’d be a shame to lose him in rule 5.
Armando Rodriguez – Rodriguez was protected a couple years ago after a good season in Savannah, but has since been removed from the 40-man roster. He’s made a nice transition to the bullpen, where his future will be, but it’s not like he’s a future closer or 8th inning set up man, so it’ll be hard to justify using a valuable roster spot to protect him.
Wilfredo Tovar – Tovar is definitely a guy that would get picked if the Mets leave him unprotected. Defensively, he could play shortstop in the big leagues right now. Offensively, he’s tiny, he’ll never have much power, and it would have been nice to see better numbers from him at AA in the second half of the season, but he doesn’t strike out much and has good plate discipline. At the very least, Tovar should grow into a back up middle infielder that doesn’t hit much but is brilliant defensively, which is what he would be this year for some other team if left unprotected.
Alonzo Harris – I’m not sure Harris has done enough to warrant protection, and I’m also not sure he’s done enough to warrant selection, but I have him as a top-20 prospect. He’s athletic, he can play centerfield, he can steal bases, and he’s got a little pop, so there’s plenty to like. Of course, he’s yet to see AA, so you don’t want to get ahead of yourself. Bottom line, I’d be surprised if the Mets protected him, but I’d be really disappointed if someone took him away from the Mets.
Aderlin Rodriguez – A-Rod is eligible for the first time and he’ll probably have to be protected. He’s quite a ways from being a big leaguer, but he made good strides this past year both offensively and defensively. Most importantly, he has incredible power, which is a rare find.
Luis Cessa – He signed back in 2008, so the 20-year old has been in the organization for a while even though he has just two years of experience. He was one of several quality starters in Brooklyn this past summer. He probably won’t be protected or selected, but he’s a guy to watch this year, especially considering that he will continue to be rule 5 eligible in subsequent years.
So, conclusions? Well, Wheeler, Tovar, and Aderlin Rodriguez are locks to be protected in my mind. Beyond that, it’s tough to know what will happen. Part of the problem is that even after guys file for free agency and others are non-tendered, there won’t be a lot of open roster spots to use on minor leaguers that need protecting, especially guys that may not be major league contributors for over a year. To help remedy this situation, the Mets may have to examine the roster status of guys like Reese Havens, Zach Lutz, Cesar Puello, Elvin Ramirez, and possibly others to make room for more rule 5 protectorates and free agent signings or re-signings (Haiston, Rauch, Shoppach, etc). I do expect the Mets to protect more than just Wheeler, Tovar, and A-Rod, but any more than five new additions would be surprising. If I were making a prediction, I’d say that Pena and Gorski would round out the group that’s protected, with Centeno and Marte also being possibilities. Any others would be a surprise, because, like I said, the Mets still don’t have a lot of roster flexibility, and those roster spots are valuable.
14 comments
Pacific NorthTex
10/1/2012-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
All you say makes sense. I do hope that Sandyman is able to turn some of the excess AAAA players on the roster into a serviceable major league player (OF or C please). I’m not ready to give up on Havens, or even Marte just yet. They might pan out to be nothing, or Havens could turn into Uggla. Who knows…
And I know I get poked fun at, but I’m telling you, Familia and Mejia could help to bring something back that is better than league average. Mejia can go first over Familia. And if Mejia goes and Familia earns a spot out of the BP, all the better. Cheap relievers are a plus. I just hope he doesn’t get infected with Parnell-itis…
Stickguy
10/1/2012-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
is parnell itis the disease where you have the lowest ERA on the team (yes, lower than RAs)?
NJstuckinTX
10/1/2012-6:40pm at 6:40 pm (UTC -4)
as in when you let everyone else’s runs up in high pressure situations… easy to have a lower ERA when you a paying on someone else’s dime.
Bryan
10/1/2012-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
The issue with Havens is that he’s not that young anymore, he’s already been on the 40 for a full year and he has 0 at bats in AAA. If you don’t think he can be ready to contribute in the big leagues by midseason 2013 it’s tough to keep him on the roster. Of course, like you said it’s tough to give up on him too because he would be a nice fit at 2B.
For the record, I don’t think Marte will be a big leaguer, but I do think he’s an interesting prospect that’s worth keeping.
Familia and Mejia isn’t a bad package. I don’t think those two alone will give you an all-star, but you might be able to get an average RF for those two and maybe one or two mid-level guys.
The Mets do have a lot of rotation depth, but the problem is that Johan and Gee are somewhat questionable health wise, so if you trade away a couple of the young guys providing depth cause you can roll with Dickey, Johan, Niese, Gee, and Harvey in the rotation, but it’s not far fetched to think that you could have 2 or 3 injuries in that group and so if you traded away some of your depth, then you might end up thin in the rotation.
srt
10/1/2012-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
Interesting…thanks for keeping us up to date.
Have to wonder how many minor leaguers might be included in packaged deal trades this off season that might then open up some spots on the 40 man.
Stickguy
10/1/2012-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
Hopefully they finally do make some trades to clear up some of the logjam. Otherwise, they may be losing some big name guys like Havens.
I assume though that most teams have the same kind of roster issues, and aren’t likely to have a 25 man spot to devote to some of the borderline rule 5 guys.
But, if they take people off the 40 man (Havens, Lutz say), they then become MiL FAs, right? So they can leave if they choose to sign elsewhere? Or does that depend on service time?
Bryan
10/1/2012-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
I’m not sure what other teams rosters are like, so you’re right about the borderline guys, but a lot of teams have room to take at least one guy.
To take someone off the 40 man you DFA them, so essentially they are exposed to waivers and anybody can claim them and they are added to that team’s 40 man. If nobody claims them and they clear waivers then they remain minor league property of the Mets and are no longer on the 40. For example, last off season both Josh Stinson and Armando Rodriguez were taken off the 40, the Brewers claimed Stinson so he was gone but Rodriguez was not and he stayed with the Mets in the minors.
I have to think Havens would get claimed. Lutz could go either way, but I’m a little curious to see if Puello could sneak through. He’s not close and he may not even be ready for AA next spring. If he really struggles in the AFL they might try, but if he plays well it’s basically an audition for other teams to grab him on waivers. Of course, if he plays well he may mean he’s ready for AA.
Stickguy
10/1/2012-1:18pm at 1:18 pm (UTC -4)
big difference though between grabbing a guy and finding him a spot to stash on the 40 man vs. keeping him on the 25 man though.
wanny
10/1/2012-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
Tovar is the only one of these who seem to do anything well enough to justify a spot at the end of a bench for year. Perhaps Pena’s defense qualifies here too. I don’t know.
Marte and A-Rod are all projection and are unlikely to be selected by another team because they have no business in the big leagues yet. However, their cases are interesting because you’d really hate to lose them before seeing if they can develop their skills.
I could see Gorski being selected, tried out in a big league bullpen for Spring Training and then returned if it doesn’t look like a fit. A team may want to stash him in the pen for year before sending him to AAA to start again.
The rest are not worth discussing (perhaps Harris… but he’s so far away).
As for the guys currently on the 40 man, I think you need to still hold on to Havens and Puello. They still have potential. Doubtful Puello gets selected but he’s had too much hype attached to risk losing.
Hazmet
10/1/2012-7:28pm at 7:28 pm (UTC -4)
It seems like I’ve been reading about Pena for 10 years now.
Bryan
10/1/2012-8:35pm at 8:35 pm (UTC -4)
It’s possible that you first heard of him in 2001 when he played in the LLWS. As for his Mets career, he signed in 2006 and has played six full seasons in the minor leagues. He’ll turn 23 next week.
Kaddef
10/6/2012-9:03pm at 9:03 pm (UTC -4)
I’m disagree with you about your comment of Juan Centeno. His defense is the best skill that he have. This year his caught stealing record is 41% and in the inside magazine pitch interview with his manager and hitting coach they said he is the most improve player in the AA mets team, including calling the game that is one of the most important things for a catcher.
Bryan
10/7/2012-9:09am at 9:09 am (UTC -4)
I didn’t mean to imply that he’s bad defensively, and the caught stealing numbers are good, I just meant that he doesn’t project as anything more than average at catcher in the big leagues. If he did, he would be a more highly regarded prospect. His size doesn’t help either, as far as being able to take a beating the way catchers do over the course of the season.
Kaddef
10/6/2012-9:05pm at 9:05 pm (UTC -4)
If you want to know his defensive stats check this out http://www.baseballreference.com