Now with the Mets season finally having come to a close it is usually followed with the State of the Mets interviews by the Front Office, Coaches & Players looking back on what went right and wrong (mostly wrong in our case) as well as looking ahead to what may come.
Among the many statements made one in particular kept being repeated for the last 3 days. I 1st heard it on Tuesday, October 02 during Terry Collins weekly interview with Mike Francesa. Collins says,
“We got to find some guys that are really willing to stay consistent with their approach at the plate. Not to try to change too much. We went a year and a half here where we led all of baseball with on base percentage, base on balls. Where we got on base. We created runs. A lot of two out hits.
When we started to fade in the 2nd half guys got away from the plan. Started to expand the strikezone, started to swing at pitches they couldn’t handle. Again, it was human nature of the fact that everybody wanted to step up and be the guy to right this ship.
What we got to do is maintain what we’ve done, what made us succesful. Stay with it and realize we are going to have a couple of tough weeks. Every team is going to have them but we got to fight through that. We got to find the right guys that are going to be able to do that.”
Then I heard it again the next day Wednesday, October 03 during a Sandy Alderson interview with Kevin Burkhardt. Alderson says,
“Offensively we got to get back to our approach. That I think we’ve had over a year and a half, and lost 2nd half of the season. Part of that means playing guys who have adopted that approach. We need a lot more power in our lineup. I mentioned some statistics where homeruns are really important in winning games and we just didn’t get that from half our lineup or more. So that’s something we have to address also.”
Then again yesterday Thursday, October 04 during a Sandy Alderson interview this time with Mike Francesa. Alderson says,
“For a year and a year and a half, all of 11 and 1st half of 12. We actually had a very good offense. It was a combination, it was really an on base approach but we were in the upper echelons of National League in run production. It’s not as if we had a lack of offense over the last 2 years. We had a lack of power and we need to correct that.”
Do you see it? They keep putting out how the offense was actually good for the last year and a half up until the All Star Break this season. I decided to see if that was indeed the case and share the results.
Turns out if you look at the combined 2011 season with the 1st half of the 2012 season the Mets run production ranks 3rd best in the NL. They also rank 2nd in Hits, BA and OBP. The Mets not to much surprise though rank 12th in Homeruns. Which makes their being 3rd in Runs somewhat more impressive when you consider the Mets are the only team to be in the bottom half of the NL in HR’s and be in the top half in Runs scored.
Of course much of this is due to the great seasons Reyes & Beltran whom are no longer with the Mets had last season plus Duda’s strong 2nd half last season as well. Then add the great 1st half Wright & Tejada had this season. Still considering their lack of HR power I did not expect to see them as high as they were in the rankings for runs scored.
You can view a more detailed view of the NL combined hitting stats of 2011 and the 1st half of 2012 here.
PS Just out of curiosity I also looked at the NL Combined 2011 & 1st half of 2012 win loss record with the understanding that it is not meant to have some type of connection to the teams run production since a key element, “pitching” has to be considered also. Again, just something for curiosities sake.
27 comments
darknova306
10/5/2012-12:09am at 12:09 am (UTC -4)
So, basically the Mets can win a mediocre number of games while several players have career offensive seasons. 2013 will likely be a nightmare.
kingman 26
10/5/2012-12:49am at 12:49 am (UTC -4)
Why not just throw out the 30–40 worst games they played?
I bet they’d be first in offense then!
And still finish 4th and fade like an ancient dandelion in a tornado at the first sign of summer.
Their offense has never been good, no matter what people like Ceetar say, and it is not good now.
It stinks so much I often could smell it through the TV screen. And I do not even have high def.
As a very wise man once said, “Statistics are like a bikini–they show you a lot, but not everything.”
The Met offense is mediocre at best.
darknova306
10/5/2012-1:33am at 1:33 am (UTC -4)
“And still finish 4th and fade like an ancient dandelion in a tornado at the first sign of summer”
Wow. The award for best Mets metaphor was just finalized right there.
While we’re cherry picking, let’s look at the best stretch of the team’s starting rotation to show just how shitty the team was as a whole during its “best times”. In June the starting rotation’s ERA was under 3.00, the run differential was +51, but their record was the same 2 games over .500 that they had in each of the previous two months. This team needs a shit-ton of help, including but not limited to a f*cking miracle.
Stickguy
10/5/2012-8:29am at 8:29 am (UTC -4)
it is not cherry picking. It is analyzing a valid statement made by Terry/Sandy.
looking at one month is cherry picking. but a year and a half, that is a trend.
What is missing though is the #s fro the rest of 2012 (what is not included in the chart above)
Still, Knog, while by the “eyes” (smell?) test, the offense was “bad”, by the only real measure that counts (scoring runs) they were actually good, especially when you factor in they played 2011 in a sever pitchers park.
it also points out though how craptastic the pitching was overall, especially last year. If you are 3rd in the league and runs and don’t even sniff the WC, then I don’t think your problem is offense!
Mr North Jersey
10/5/2012-11:07am at 11:07 am (UTC -4)
You can see the 2nd Half Splits here.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats_lg.cgi?full=1¶ms=half|2nd%20Half|NL|2012|bat|AB|
The Mets were 15th in Runs Scored.
Mr North Jersey
10/5/2012-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
You can say the offense has never been good but if the idea is to score more runs than your opponent then the Mets for a year and a half scored more runs than all but 2 teams in the NL and they did it while ranking in the bottom half of HR’s.
Though like I pointed out it is mostly due to 2 players no longer here and Wright & Tejada’s stellar 1st halves this season. I should also note that Murphy had a solid season with the bat last year as well.
Now the question is assuming they are all back can Wright, Murphy and Tejada hit the way they did during that year and a half span? Also can Davis hit for a full season the way he hit for the 2nd half this season and can Duda hit for a full season the way he hit the 2nd half of 2011?
Then throw in can they improve offensively at catcher? The Mets offensive stats at the catcher position are just terrible. They ranked last in HR’s, RBI’s, Runs, SLG, OBP and 3rd to last in BA.
TRS86
10/5/2012-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
True but Reyes’ OBP spike could have easily been due to the approach that was being taught.
Mr North Jersey
10/5/2012-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
You know how I feel about the amount of credit hitting coaches deserve and while I know he helped in the end it was about Reyes just having a monster year hitting wise.
Stickguy
10/5/2012-12:38pm at 12:38 pm (UTC -4)
1/2 year. once he hurt his hammy, he pretty much sucked (or was mediocre) until the last week or 2 of the year.
TRS86
10/5/2012-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
I am just not so sure about that. From day one Hudgens was preaching to him about laying off the first pitch junk and working the count more and getting pitches that you could do damage with instead of just make contact with. I think a light came on or shined a little brighter if nothing else.
srt
10/5/2012-8:28am at 8:28 am (UTC -4)
IMO, lost in all this talk of ‘we have to get back to our hitting approach and stick with it talk’, from Sandy and TC is the fact that if we had a majority of ML competent hitters to begin with there would be no need for this philosophy.
Teaching an approach to hitting is what should happen in the minors, not at the ML level. The reason we keep hearing so much about this is b/c we just don’t have enough competent ML hitters on the big club to start with.
Sure, there’s an adjustment to be made at the plate when you’re a rookie being promoted to the majors. Just like there’s almost continual adjustments to be made by ML pitchers.
I don’t know about you all but I’m getting a little tired of seeing these kids promoted up here THEN trying to teach them how to hit or learn a new position (ala Murphy, Duda, Spin, etc.) To me, just goes to show how poor development had been at the minor league level coupled with trying to plug in pieces not ready and/or hammering a square peg into a round hole.
Here’s hoping all the changes made over the past 2 years up and down the organization especially with the farm system are moving towards fixing that.
And not a doubt in my mind we’ve been seeing this b/c of the $$ problems. Trying to field a competent ML team while slashing payroll, cleaning house and a bottom feeder farm system coming into 2011 led to more or less having to roll with what we had.
Stickguy
10/5/2012-8:32am at 8:32 am (UTC -4)
agree with this 100%. it takes time to rebuild an organization, so anyone coming in for the first few years will be relying on the prior regime minors to fill holes. And apparently the Omar/Tony development plan was, well, don’t have one!
srt
10/5/2012-8:40am at 8:40 am (UTC -4)
I’m a little surprised we haven’t seen more articles on Omar’s reign, the farm system, Bernazard, etc…..and how far back it really set this organization.
There’s been a ton of articles dealing with the draft, who we picked, if they were a bust, etc. – but nothing dealing with the development of these kids. From what little we did hear when that whole Bernazard fiasco took place, you have to believe development was somewhat of a problem as well.
I keep looking at that Braves organization that manages with a medium type payroll to not only draft well, but have a better than average result of their draftees making it to the majors and contributing.
Stickguy
10/5/2012-8:42am at 8:42 am (UTC -4)
that is the model to follow for sustained success. Combined with careful use of bigger ticket FAs. Of course, having that foundation, along with a bigger market payroll (say $140mill) can make you a force. Or for double the Mets current payroll, the Yankees. Though the Phils are starting to get close to that plan. Just hope the minors don’t develop fast enough.
srt
10/5/2012-8:46am at 8:46 am (UTC -4)
In the Braves case, I guess when you know you’re never going to have a payroll north of 100 MIL to begin with, you’d better draft and develop well!
Stickguy
10/5/2012-9:04am at 9:04 am (UTC -4)
same with Tampa. but if you combine that with actually being able to spend money (on keeping guys or adding parts) it should make you a perennial winner.
and probably what the comment (from Depo?) about “moneyball with money” meant.
Stickguy
10/5/2012-9:02am at 9:02 am (UTC -4)
random thought for the day that could be a new post to discuss: a conspiracy theory.
as was hard to miss, there was considerable angst recently when the Mets returned all the coaches (and Terry). No Accountability! was the cry around the land.
well, Terry also did not receive an extension. And, Sandy made it clear that they were counting the full hit (buyouts) of bay and Santana against the 2013 payroll.
so, the way I see it, this is all part of the “plan”. 2013 will be 1 more year of the same old treading water for the most part. The only thing that will be resolved is dickey/wright extended or moved (obviously setting a huge direction for the future).
after 2013 though, you move to phase II on whatever path they are taking, with money to actually invest in new foundation players. And thiey will be managed by an entirely new coaching staff. Out with the old, in with the new.
so if 2013 looks a lot like 2012, 2014 will be unrecognizable. And I bet that includes Sandy either moving off into the sunset (when does Selig retire this time?) or stepping back into some advisory role, with a new GM making the calls.
so the slogan will be: 2014 – now it finally looks different!
darknova306
10/5/2012-11:49am at 11:49 am (UTC -4)
That’s not much of a conspiracy theory, it seems more like a rational expectation based on the state of the team. The big question about the whole thing is how much money will the Wilpons be willing to put back into the team after 2013′s shedding of the last big contracts.
TRS86
10/5/2012-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
Great job NJ.
It appears that what Sandy and Terry have been saying is exactly true. We don’t have the type of team that can hack away, that is why the offense even with good players sucked so bad when Hojo was here.
Those numbers above show if the players stick to the plan then the Mets will score runs and as talent increases they will score even more. I don’t care about what my eyes see or nose smells or any optimistic or pessimistic junk. For 1.5 years they were scoring runs and for half a season they got away from that and didn’t. Looks pretty clear to me.
gategem
10/5/2012-2:57pm at 2:57 pm (UTC -4)
It took some time but the pitchers around the league became aware of the Mets approach and started to just throw strikes which the Mets hitters stood there and watched. The hitters then found themselves behind in the count. The approach should be if it’s a good pitch to hit then go for it. If not take it and look for a pitch you can hit. But that being said hitting should not be a one size fits all philosophy. The philosophy has to be adjusted to fit the talent and the mechanics of the hitter. The great Yogi Berra was known for hitting what was ostensibly a bad pitch to hit out of the ballpark.
gategem
10/5/2012-3:16pm at 3:16 pm (UTC -4)
BTW the comment about the Mets hitters taking first pitch strikes was made by Darling and Bobby Ojeda. The Mets hitters then tried to adjust by going after the first pitch but started to go after pitches that were out of the strike zone. But the problem is mostly a lack of talent rather than a poor hitting approach. The great Ted Williams was frustrated when he tried to teach hitters his hitting philosophy and was unsuccessful. BTW Williams OPS+ was 190, Ruth’s was 206 and Gehrig’s was 179.
Mr North Jersey
10/5/2012-5:46pm at 5:46 pm (UTC -4)
“The approach should be if it’s a good pitch to hit then go for it. If not take it and look for a pitch you can hit.”
I agree and honestly I have yet to see publicly it stated that the approach is otherwise. That being said the Mets this season have taken the highest percentage of pitches for strikes looking (31%) but what I keep coming back to in all of this is that I find it hard to believe that this is due to the players being told to take strikes.
My understanding has always been that they are to swing at their pitch not swing at their pitch but only after taking the 1st pitch for a strike.
For as long as I can remember it has been don’t swing at pitches outside the strike zone, look for your pitch, if you have 2 strikes expand the strike zone to protect the plate. If your ahead in the count you can be more selective and narrow the strike zone looking for a pitch you can do damage with.
Back in late May during Ike’s struggles it was suggested after Ike had a nice series vs the Padres that it was due to him doing something different by swinging early in the count in particular the 1st pitch. I wrote a post that showed that Ike had been swinging early in the count for most of the month and had not just started swinging at the 1st pitch. The difference being that up until that Padres series his attempts when he did so had been met with failure.
http://realdirtymets.com/2012/05/27/can-ike-davis-success-of-late-simply-be-due-to-swinging-early-i-wouldnt-go-that-far/
I bring this up because I don’t think it is just that the Mets are taking strikes that is the problem but rather they are not executing with success on their pitches when they do see them.
TRS86
10/5/2012-10:26am at 10:26 am (UTC -4)
I am not sure how to even begin looking at this but I keep hearing that Ike is the one that didn’t follow this in the 2nd half and I don’t think that is the case. I think that is just media fodder.
I noticed a lot of the players swinging at first pitches out of the zone in the 2nd half but anyone know how you could take a look at first pitch swing % and first pitch strike % of the 2nd half and compare it to the first half?
Stickguy
10/5/2012-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
I agree. It seems to be a common theme now from the group that despises Sandy, and any whiff of sabers or OBP that Ike is the culprit, because he hit 12 first pitch HRs.
Well, not necessarily. He could be the poster boy for the hudgens plan. That is, he hunted his pitch, and was seeing a fat one first, and launched it. That is what they are supposed to do.
seeing fewer pitches in and of itself is not the problem. It is lack or results, and seeing causation to that.
if they are hitting earlier in the count, because they are crushing hittable pitches, that is a good thing. If they are seeing fewer because they are swinging early at crap and making outs, that is bad.
and that to me is what Sandy was saying. They feel that guys (and remember, they see every pitch of every AB, so this is not spreadsheet based only!) are seeing fewer pitches because they are “reaching” for bad ones early. And the results (runs) were bad. So they put 2+2 together.
TRS86
10/5/2012-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
Right they pressed and swung at lots of first pitches out of the zone and got in pitchers counts way too often.
srt
10/5/2012-1:17pm at 1:17 pm (UTC -4)
And giving the average age and experience of many on this team: Ike/Duda/Spin/Kirk/Thole – to name a few…pressing and swinging at bad pitches when they go into a bit of a slump would not surprise me.
TRS86
10/5/2012-1:28pm at 1:28 pm (UTC -4)
Wright still does the same thing.