Back in March, I did a series of player projections on this very website for the projected starting lineup, starting rotation, and bullpen. Now it’s time to take a look at my projections, the projections from Fan Graphs that I compared them to, and how each player actually did in 2012.
While my projections usually aligned pretty well with Fan Graphs, reality outguessed us both. In most cases, in fact, the projections turned out to be far more optimistic than how things really turned out. Aside from batting average, I was close on Ike Davis. Apart from home runs, I was pretty close on Daniel Murphy. And David Wright hit fewer home runs than I expected, but otherwise came close to my projections.
Other than that, these players performed far below my expectations.
I didn’t bother projecting reserves, because I didn’t expect much from them. However, Scott Hairston, Mike Baxter, Justin Turner, and Ronny Cedeno deserve a lot of credit for how they played this year. They turned the Mets bench from a weakness to a strength.
So here are the final numbers compared with my projections and those of Fan Graphs. Enjoy!
Next up…the pitching staff.
| Name | BA | HR | RBI | OBP | |
| Josh Thole | Me | 0.291 | 6 | 53 | N/A |
| Fan Graphs | 0.276 | 5 | 60 | N/A | |
| Reality | 0.234 | 1 | 21 | 0.294 | |
| Ike Davis | Me | 0.276 | 28 | 94 | N/A |
| Fan Graphs | 0.279 | 24 | 97 | N/A | |
| Reality | 0.227 | 32 | 90 | 0.308 | |
| Daniel Murphy | Me | 0.287 | 11 | 68 | N/A |
| Fan Graphs | 0.296 | 10 | 68 | N/A | |
| Reality | 0.291 | 6 | 65 | 0.332 | |
| Ruben Tejada | Me | 0.257 | 1 | 41 | N/A |
| Fan Graphs | 0.274 | 2 | 62 | N/A | |
| Reality | 0.289 | 1 | 25 | 0.333 | |
| David Wright | Me | 0.303 | 30 | 102 | N/A |
| Fan Graphs | 0.289 | 25 | 97 | N/A | |
| Reality | 0.306 | 21 | 93 | 0.391 | |
| Jason Bay | Me | 0.268 | 17 | 71 | N/A |
| Fan Graphs | 0.261 | 17 | 73 | N/A | |
| Reality | 0.165 | 8 | 20 | 0.237 | |
| Andres Torres | Me | 0.244 | 10 | 47 | N/A |
| Fan Graphs | 0.254 | 7 | 49 | N/A | |
| Reality | 0.230 | 3 | 35 | 0.327 | |
| Lucas Duda | Me | 0.288 | 24 | 82 | 0.362 |
| Fan Graphs | 0.280 | 21 | 81 | 0.362 | |
| Reality | 0.239 | 15 | 57 | 0.329 |
3 comments
TRS86
10/5/2012-12:56pm at 12:56 pm (UTC -4)
Man, did I play this game? I am not sure I would have done any better. That’s the interesting thing about baseball, especially with kids. You just never know what to expect.
Stickguy
10/5/2012-2:19pm at 2:19 pm (UTC -4)
one thing that would help is a PA column to see what you based it o, and what reality said. For HR/RBIs, that certainly has an impact.
srt
10/5/2012-6:01pm at 6:01 pm (UTC -4)
Good thing no one asked me to weigh in on this at the start of the year. I generally am way off on individual performances. Probably because I’m not a student of advanced stats. Not to say I don’t buy into them, just I don’t exactly understand them all….