I posted this in the comment section of MMO today. With all the speculation and opinions floating around on what to do with Wright or Dickey, the fact remains that we as fans know very little about the actual details necessary to make a logical conclusion. In my opinion there are three questions that muct be answered by the Mets in order for them to do what is best for the Mets. Not what is best for the fans but what is best for the future of the organization.
We need to know the following and honestly NONE of us have a clue what the answers are:
1) What is the actual contract that Wright or Dickey would agree to sign?
2) What are the actual trade proposals that Alderson would have on the table?
3) What are the Mets plans starting in 2014 to surround Wright or Dickey if re-signed with a competitive team?
Until those 3 are answered how could anyone make a logical decision?
42 comments
srt
10/8/2012-12:27pm at 12:27 pm (UTC -4)
So many questions, no real answers – as you said.
The FO has made some pretty definitive statements this time about keeping Wright, him being the new ‘ambassador’, wanting to get the deal done sooner rather than later.
It sounds like they want to keep Wright. As to whether they’ll give him the deal he wants, that another question all together.
While I really believe they want to keep Dickey, I’m not sure they’re as sincere about that one.
The 2013 money situation almost sounds like it’s going to be worse than the past 2 years. If that’s the case, how do you extend either contract unless they don’t kick in until 2014?
I’m thinking between Bay/Johan’s contracts off the books in a year and all the revenue they’ll make from hosting the ASG, they’ll be in better shape after the 2013 season.
TRS86
10/8/2012-12:39pm at 12:39 pm (UTC -4)
Honestly I see no reason that the new contracts would kick in until 2014 unless it benefits the Mets. Why would they? The player signed the contract, no need to rip up the old and bring in the new.
Pacific NorthTex
10/8/2012-12:41pm at 12:41 pm (UTC -4)
Spock could, I’m sure of it.
All in all, you are correct, you can’t say one way or another what they will do without knowing the facts, the financials, etc. I still stay if they can get a bump in this year’s payroll they can start operation Progess Forward. To me, question #4 is What percentage of Bay/Santana/Francisco money will be reinvested into the team? If that can be a yes, then I think this team can start to trend in the right direction.
And even playing with numbers, if they went to 110 this year and dropped to 90 the next (spend 10 extra this year, then get it back the following), the team will still have a good amount of cash to spread around in 2014.
Yeah, it’s a rosey outlook, but I’m looking through hop colored glasses these days.
TRS86
10/8/2012-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
Isn’t your 4th question basically rephrasing #3?
Pacific NorthTex
10/8/2012-1:06pm at 1:06 pm (UTC -4)
I guess. But if the plan is to “get better defensively” does that mean spending to get hitting with above average D or does that mean just focusing on cheap Defense only types.
TRS86
10/8/2012-1:10pm at 1:10 pm (UTC -4)
I was speaking just of this:
“question #4 is What percentage of Bay/Santana/Francisco money will be reinvested into the team?”
compared to this
” What are the Mets plans starting in 2014 to surround Wright or Dickey if re-signed with a competitive team?”
To me they are basically the same thing.
Pacific NorthTex
10/8/2012-1:15pm at 1:15 pm (UTC -4)
Mine is more wordsmithy. so there.
TRS86
10/8/2012-1:17pm at 1:17 pm (UTC -4)
Got me.
Pacific NorthTex
10/8/2012-1:26pm at 1:26 pm (UTC -4)
So really, then, the Cliff Notes version of this post is: Nothing Logical will happen until it does.
TRS86
10/8/2012-1:57pm at 1:57 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, Uh I guess?
What I am saying is that we don’t have a clue about the actual terms of the process so anything right now is pointless speculation.
Pacific NorthTex
10/8/2012-2:14pm at 2:14 pm (UTC -4)
But isn’t that what blogs do? Pointless speculation? Ha!
TRS86
10/8/2012-2:29pm at 2:29 pm (UTC -4)
No not usually. We normally have something to go on. Some type of leaked rumor at least. We got nothing now but are pretending we know the actual demands and trade offers.
You know it’s Wright for 7/150 or trade him for the Catcher and 3B from the Rockies. Those are your two choices, do it OMAR.
Stickguy
10/8/2012-12:54pm at 12:54 pm (UTC -4)
if the answer to #3 is just wait/hope guys laying around the system suddenly become stars, then most likely you are just looking at a continued stretch like the last few years. A couple good months, some bad ones, and finishing somewhere between 75-80ish wins.
and based on that, the smart play is to clean house, and hope #2 is “a lot of talent back”, and try to build around that. Because I don’t see Dickey and Wright ever being a part of a playoff team here, and if they are taking up a full 1/3 of the payroll for the next 3+ years, then the odds of things improving are slim to none.
Mets if they resign them are likely to add no talent, at any level, and will remain a mediocre status quo for years to come, since revenue will never pick up to support higher payroll, etc.
TRS86
10/8/2012-1:01pm at 1:01 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed, which is why we need to know the answer to #3. If the answer is that they are not prepared to add those pieces to Wright and or Dickey then they will actually most likely get better more quickly by trading them instead.
Again, how you can make an logical decision based on not knowing these things is beyond me.
kingman 26
10/8/2012-1:48pm at 1:48 pm (UTC -4)
“Until those 3 are answered how could anyone make a logical decision?”
Because Wright is four years removed from being a serious star. He turns 30 soon. Any long-term deal for him—by a team with serious financial issues (we are not the Yanks, Dodgers, or Red Sox anymore)—is comedy. And not the funny kind.
This–as Joe D wrote!!!!–will be a complete disaster.
Remember, Dickey is coming off of 3 full, very good, HEALTHY seasons in a row. Dickey is coming off his career year. Dickey will cost a fraction of what Wright will. Dickey is at his best.
Sign RA, build around your one strength in the rotation, and DO NOT hamstring the club with a Minaya-type deal for Wright!
Sure, if Wright will take 5/60, then sign away. But he won’t. Anything past 5 years or maybe 80 million is complete insanity.
TRS86
10/8/2012-1:56pm at 1:56 pm (UTC -4)
But again do you know the answer to #1? If not then can you make a logical decision?
Floating random numbers of 7/150 doesn’t do anyone any good.
kingman 26
10/8/2012-2:00pm at 2:00 pm (UTC -4)
Only random number I have floated is 7/125 which has been widely cited. No, I do not know the answer to number 1, but based on our knowledge of these things, reasonable guesses can be estimated.
We can disagree, but at age 30, after his last four years, after all of the injuries–do you really think a long-term deal for Wright (even, say, 6/100) would be good for this team?
Are virtually ANY long-term deals for guys past 30 really good? Especially for a team coming off four straight 4th place finishes, and with holes really just about everywhere except the rotation, SS, and 1B?
TRS86
10/8/2012-2:06pm at 2:06 pm (UTC -4)
Again, I have no idea what the contract offer would actually be so to me it’s pointless to speculate. Last year we heard from Reyes’ camp that it was 100M or bust. We haven’t heard anything. And the 7/125, widely cited by whom?
Pacific NorthTex
10/8/2012-2:07pm at 2:07 pm (UTC -4)
It makes some sense, but I don’t see a 100 million dollar deal hamstringing this club. Especially with Bay/Santana/Etc. coming off the books. Yeah, he won’t be worth the money at the end, but really, what player is? (see: Santana, Arod, etc.). Now, I can’t see throwing 125 mil or 150 mil, but 5 years, 100 mil is an acceptable max in my mind. And considering the lack of about anything from the right side of the plate, I think they should offer him a deal. If he wants more than the 100 mil, then he should be traded. But if you are trading Wright, you should be trading RA as well. This team needs bats, has an abundance of young pitchers (on the roster and in the minors). You trade from a Have to get a Need.
Granted, any signing of RA would not hamstring the club either, as a 3 year/45 mil deal (prob. the high end of what he would get) is a lot easier to eat than a 100 million dollar deal. I still think, based on what you put above, that RA is probably the best option to trade. CY type pitcher, low salary, etc. etc. He may be pitching 5 years from now, but I’m not sure I see it. I could be wrong.
Now, in your scenario, you Sign RA, Traid Wright and then use Wrights money to do what? Who are you signing? Because unless you are getting a Wil Meadowbrooks back (which I don’t see happening), you’ll have to add some RH bats to the lineup somehow.
kingman 26
10/8/2012-2:15pm at 2:15 pm (UTC -4)
Do nothing huge right now necessarily with Wright’s money.
Pierzynski for a year? Spend on 1-2 bullpen guys?
Move Murph to 3B and Valdy to 2B to start.
See how the season goes and have money for in-season pickups and next offseason we might really be able to make a splash.
Sorry, for me, it is time for CHANGE. Massive, total change. Have always been a big Wright fan, but his 2nd half ended my pretending he is a superstar. Those days ended at the end of 2008.
TRS86
10/8/2012-2:30pm at 2:30 pm (UTC -4)
If you trade Wright and do nothing with his money then you are going to LOSE tons and tons of money and be in even more financial trouble than you are now. At least that pretty boy is still selling some tickets and merchandise.
Also I should take you out and have you quartered and shot for suggesting an IF containing V-Spin and Murphy
kingman 26
10/8/2012-2:38pm at 2:38 pm (UTC -4)
Hahaha! Well, I HAVE shot, stabbed, beaten, garroted, and generally abused quite a few people for suggesting a right side of Murph and Duda.
I guess I am thinking that if Valdy can be a tad better than Murphy, and Murph is not TOO much worse than Wright (and as everyone seems to think, maybe he will be a better 3B than 2B), then, with the very solid Tejada and Ike, perhaps the overall infield defense is not much worse.
And yes, as I think I have mentioned somewhere, I went to the last Saturday game at Citi, and Wright shirts were EVERYWHERE. He’s loudly cheered constantly.
But do they want this, or to be able to compete consistently in 2–3 years, have 2–3 more good prospects, and have that 15–20 mil to spend elsewhere every year? I vote scenario B.
TRS86
10/8/2012-2:42pm at 2:42 pm (UTC -4)
Again it is just too early for me. Unless the Mets eat cash for Wright I don’t see a TOP group of prospects coming which kind of defeats the point but what do I know about what will be offered?
As to Vlady playing 2B? The guy is not only a poor defender but I honestly can’t take seeing him just recklessly swing at every pitch as an actual solution to anything. Just go ahead and keep Murphy at 2B and then find a stopgap for 3B and hope Flores can play there.
kingman 26
10/8/2012-2:47pm at 2:47 pm (UTC -4)
Valdy is a huge crapshoot, no doubt.
But I guess for me, his power and speed and seeming enthusiasm might be worth the risk of giving him a shot to play every day somewhere.
Really TRS, as much as I had been a Terry defender, having Valdy sit so that Torres, Bay, and Lewis could play was literally driving me to almost become violent.
We have so little; why not give Valdy a chance to hit 20–25 HR, steal 30 bases, and give this team some fire?
TRS86
10/8/2012-3:16pm at 3:16 pm (UTC -4)
Kingman, after watching V-Spun I honestly can’t stand his game. He reminds me of a less talented Juan Uribe.
kingman 26
10/8/2012-4:11pm at 4:11 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, Valdy is imperfect to be sure. For me, after watching our alleged outfield all year, I was pining for him over Bay, Torres, Lewis, and really almost Duda too.
Hard to say if he can evolve and be a solid 2B and MLB hitter; but if we could get 2-3 real good prospects for Wright, I would be willing to try it for a year…or part of one…
Trs86
10/8/2012-7:25pm at 7:25 pm (UTC -4)
It’s not the price per year that concerns me with Wright it’s the total number. Over 100m would be a dangerous move.
srt
10/9/2012-7:22am at 7:22 am (UTC -4)
As someone who’s watched all but 1 Met game this year, i have to agree with trs’s opinion on Valdy.
I remember Omar being very high on this kid the last ST he was GM. At the time, he did look like a pretty good prospect. Problem is, he’s not progressed much.
You can pretty much write him off as any kind of SS – he just cannot play that position.
His second base defense might be passable but I honestly didn’t see anything this season that puts him any better than Murphy was.
OF is still a work in progress for him, especially since not unlike several others, they tried him at the position first in the MLs, instead of development there in the minors.
And his bat? He’s got some nice pop but all he is right now is a hacker.
Nice utility guy right now. One I wouldn’t mind if he was included in any kind of trade.
TRS86
10/9/2012-8:33am at 8:33 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. Nice bat off the bench is about it. Once a pitcher actually prepares for him he’s toast.
I think at best his career is Juan Uribe: .296 .419 .715 Pinnacle of his career.
To me on a good team he is Roger Bernadina. Not garbage and a great LH bat off the bench that you can still slot in the field but certainly far from a starter on ANY MLB team.
TRS86
10/9/2012-8:37am at 8:37 am (UTC -4)
Keep in mind as a starter his OPS was .661. Seriously we can’t actually think of using him as a starter yet.
Pacific NorthTex
10/8/2012-2:35pm at 2:35 pm (UTC -4)
Fair enough. I don’t necessarily agree with it, but in the end, should the plan of attack go where Wright, Dickey and possibly Ike all get traded, I can at least see how/where they are going and the mentality behind it.
kingman 26
10/8/2012-2:43pm at 2:43 pm (UTC -4)
That I am not in favor of. Without Ike, the team has zero power and a fine glove needs to be replaced—with all of the possible scatterarms who may play 3B and 2B, we need Ike’s glove as well as his power.
As for RA, this is his prime; David’s ended four years ago.
For the life of me, I cannot see how you can trade your 2012 MVP–who has been very good and cost effective for three years–when he is the leader of the team’s ONLY clear strength.
With RA/Niese/Harvey/Gee and Johan then Wheeler, you have a rotation with the potential to be so good, that with just 1–2 more bullpen arms you may already be a .500+ team.
That is why I am fanatical about keeping RA and Ike and Niese and trading Wright.
Starting pitching, fundamentally sound fielders, and a few 3-run HR here and there IS a REAL plan for the future.
RA/Niese/Harvey/Wheeler/Gee/Ike/Tejada is the foundation for success.
PS—Are you in Seattle? Please drop me an email, let me know where you live, what you think, if my info was helpful, if I could be of more help, etc….and I am almost certainly going to be there at the end of the month. Would love to stop by and say hi or have a drink if you have the time and inclination.
Pacific NorthTex
10/8/2012-2:57pm at 2:57 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, rocking Seattle (AKA Issaquah). should be in a home and out of a hotel this week sometime.
I’ll drop you a note and see if the schedules work out. Great place out here. Loving it. Though it’s got me all messed up watching Monday NIGHT football during dinner time.
As for Ike, I’m not hell bent either way on him. I love his power, I hate his complaining and his HR or K type ABs… I would only trade him if it came back with something wonderful. Holding onto him would be no travesty at all.
And strong pitching and defense requires one to actually have a defense. Current batch of OF, 2B, and C are not what I would deem defensive strengths.
kingman 26
10/8/2012-4:16pm at 4:16 pm (UTC -4)
Really glad you like it….Maybe the best urban area in the US. For me, getting used to football at 10 AM on Sundays took years, especially as I was 23 and just out of college and not usually awake then on Sundays at that point in my life.
Agreed on Ike’s downsides, but all of those 2- and 3-run HRs the second half have me almost convinced that he was so bad the first half maybe due to injury/time off, and if he can hit .270/.350 with 30+ HR and field well, we have to keep him.
And as for the overall D, that’s why I say keep Ike. He and Tejada are the start. I love Wright, but 15–20 mil a year for him at this point is nuts.
Please do drop me a line; almost sure I should be there the last weekend of the month.
Joe D.
10/8/2012-2:11pm at 2:11 pm (UTC -4)
Do you think the Mets or Dickey and Wright wont know the answers to those questions before agreeing to anything? As bloggers we get to speculate, but as the principles they will be operating with the real facts.
TRS86
10/8/2012-2:27pm at 2:27 pm (UTC -4)
Sure they will know. My point is that all this junk floating around like 7/150? Who said that? Certainly not anyone involved in the situation. Same with those asinine rumors about what the Rockies would offer for Wright in a trade. We aren’t privy to that information until it comes from a reputable source.
So if you want to write something like:
Wright at 7/150M, would you do it? Obviously hell no.
But that’s much different than throwing out that you assume that is what the deal will be and thus they shouldn’t sign him.
Same thing if I wrote, trade David Wright for Geraldo Parra. 90% would say no on that trade except for that one guy, lol. But if I said trade Wright for Middlebrooks and Lester you get an entirely different scenario.
And finally to deal with the 3rd question. If the Mets were actually going to go out and boost the budget back up in the 125+ range in 2014 wouldn’t that make the Wright negotiations this year a little different? If they were committed to bringing in talent to surround him in 2014 wouldn’t that change some things? But if it’s just a token gesture to the fans and 2014 they just pocket the Bay and Johan cash then what’s the point of signing Wright at any price?
Again it’s just too early to speculate.
wanny
10/8/2012-4:11pm at 4:11 pm (UTC -4)
You can ask these questions about every topic we discuss here. Just change the names.
Is this a blog author telling people not to bother discussing something? On a blog seemingly driven by comments and presumably compensated by advertisers? Strange indeed!
trs86
10/8/2012-4:14pm at 4:14 pm (UTC -4)
Missing the point. More to follow.
kingman 26
10/8/2012-4:48pm at 4:48 pm (UTC -4)
It’s not really too early to speculate on the parameters of what Wright will be offered on the open market, as there are teams–and the Mets are no longer one of them–who can dramatically overpay for a player of Wright’s age who has declined.
The Reyes comparison is a weak one, as Reyes has much more severe injuries than Wright, dating back over his entire career, and unlike Wright, Reyes really IS a soft, unclutch choker, is immature as hell, and simply was not wanted by many teams.
I think it is very reasonable to assume that Wright will be offered 5–7 years, and between $100–125 million.
Trs86
10/8/2012-7:21pm at 7:21 pm (UTC -4)
I am not saying don’t discuss it. I am saying that assuming we know anything for a fact at this point is a fallacy. I already posted scenarios about trading Wright and Dickey based on thoughts and loosely based assumptions. That is different from saying Wright WILL be seeking 7/150 and the Mets should sell high. We have no idea how much truth there is in either.
Stickguy
10/8/2012-5:04pm at 5:04 pm (UTC -4)
hopefully the FO has already decided on the answers to these questions. and has contingency plans in the vault already.
as much as people complain about not having a “plan”, of course they did. Even “do absolutely nothing until contracts expire” is a plan.
but not having thought out what to do with the only marquee players on the team, both entering their final year under contract, would qualify as criminal.
assuming Sandy is truthful about wanting to keep them (and getting a deal done ASAP), it actually scares me more for the future, because IMO that signals that they really don’t have an F’ing clue what the hell they are doing, and that treading water and breaking even each year (IOW, becoming the Pirates) is more than enough.
Because with the lack of talent in the system, and apparent (Sandy on record as saying 3+ years before spending more?) fixed payroll, they have no chance of getting notably better any time soon, certainly not while these guys can help.
I can easily see Dickey and Wright in a few years being the next generation Santana and Bay, while the next GM and cronies is waiting for the bad contracts to expire so they can try to get reinforcements!
Trs86
10/8/2012-7:22pm at 7:22 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed, I am assuming, lol, that Sandy has already considered all options.