Over at Metsmerizedonline Sean Kenny did a mailbag post yesterday that discussed what effects the Mets AAA team playing in Vegas next year may have on it’s pitchers. Sean discussed how hitters enjoy increased batting averages & power numbers and he also discussed the thin air due to the elevation, hanging pitches that get crushed and breaking balls that don’t break. These are points that Sean is not alone in as many that follow the PCL have talked about it being a hitters league because of this.
It’s a good read and MMO’s Tim B does a good job in the comments section answering some questions related to this move. If you have yet to do so I recommend reading it.
I decided to explore the differences between the Pacific Coast League and the International League a little further and do some comparisons and see what they looked like side by side. Some things you should know is that the PCL is a 16 team league while the IL is a 14 team league. Because of this difference those 2 extra teams in the PCL add on average an additional 2,500 more plate appearances and 11,000.0 innings pitched to the yearly totals.
I went back and looked at a 5 year sample size of the hitting and as Sean stated the PCL enjoyed a increased batting average that was 17 points higher than the IL (.278/BA to .261/BA). They enjoy a higher slugging percentage (.434/SLG to .399/SLG) as well. Two things to note was the number of HR’s and Triples per at bat. The PCL averaged a HR every 35.3 at bats compared to the IL that averaged a HR every 41 at bats and the PCL averaged a triple every 135.2 at bats while the IL averaged a triple every 171.7 at bats. The PCL averaged better numbers per at bat in every major offensive category.
I also went back and looked at a 5 year sample size of the pitching and to no surprise the PCL posted an ERA that was 70 points higher than the IL (4.72/ERA to 4.02/ERA). Another thing of note was the number of hits per 9 innings between the two leagues. The PCL averaged 9.7 hits per 9 innings the IL 9.0 hits per 9 innings. The IL averaged better numbers per 9 innings in every major pitching category.
After doing this even though there is no doubt as far as I am concerned that the PCL does show itself to benefit hitters more, I don’t know if the difference is to the point where I should be that much more concerned as far as the effects Vegas may have on the Mets.
What are your thoughts on all this?
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference
8 comments
Stickguy
10/9/2012-5:40pm at 5:40 pm (UTC -4)
pretty much confirmed common knowledge. something that is not always easy to do!
but, it is probably for just 2 years.
my take, maybe it will have a side benefit, in that the pitchers have to work harder to overcome the conditions, and that might help them down the road? And of course, the hitters can gain some extra confidence!
it will be interesting to see of course how the Mets handle prospect assignments. The top tier (Wheeler/mejia/familia) will all probably start there, for better or worse. Wheeler will only be there for 2 months or so, then in NY. The other guys, who the hell knows. But they are iffy prospects anyway at this point, and either guy could be traded this winter.
below that, the next wave of arms probably won’t sniff AAA until at best late in 2014, so no real issue there.
and Flores is the only upper end prospect of note that will even likely start there.
I hope they can make this like N.O, with a 2 year stint and back to the I.L.
srt
10/9/2012-5:58pm at 5:58 pm (UTC -4)
I’m thinking I can’t believe they find themselves in this position of being stuck with their AAA in Vegas to start with.
I read the post over on MMO as well today.
Enough has been published about Vegas having an effect on pitching and power at the plate over the years that it can’t be ignored. It does have the potential to be a problem for a variety of reasons. How much of a problem we’re soon going to see…..
darknova306
10/9/2012-7:11pm at 7:11 pm (UTC -4)
As expected. My question is: is there any statistically significant data showing that the difference in numbers between the PCL and IL have any influence on future success of the minor leaguers that play there? I see a lot of whining about how the PCL benefits hitters and hurts pitchers, but if that fact doesn’t significantly alter the development of the players (and I’ve seen zero empirical evidence that it does), then all the whining and moaning about it is completely pointless and just wastes our time.
This change will not harm the Mets minor leaguers in the long run, and if you have significant evidence that I’m wrong please give me a link to the data and analysis.
Seems like just one more stupid thing for Mets fans to whine about, but I could be wrong…
Mr North Jersey
10/9/2012-7:43pm at 7:43 pm (UTC -4)
How would someone go about showing that a player would of had better success had he played in the I.L. as opposed to the P.C.L.?
I agree in that in my opinion I don’t believe Vegas will be harmful to the Mets players when all is said and done.
It will probably be more just an adjustment for those following the team as to how much or little does one consider the environment as far as statistics are concerned.
darknova306
10/10/2012-12:01am at 12:01 am (UTC -4)
Showing anything of relevance in the developmental paths of players in the two leagues would involve lots of advanced statistical analysis and tons of data from lots of years… and still likely wouldn’t be able to decouple all the confounding variables in a player’s development. This is pretty much my point: people whining about how bad the move to Vegas is have no legit argument outside of “it’s a longer drive to go see them from NYC”.
Mindless complaining and blowing minor issues way out of proportion bother the hell out of me, and that’s how I see this topic.
Stating that having the team’s AAA pitchers go through the PCL during their development is going to significantly harm their future careers is as based in actual fact as the claim that Wright is unclutch or that O-Dawg is a “winning player”. Enough.
Mr North Jersey
10/10/2012-12:27am at 12:27 am (UTC -4)
I guess I just don’t know what constitutes way out of proportions in this case. I am trying to read where is it that you are seeing this but I can’t say I really see that being done.
As far as my part I wanted to see how diverse are the differences between the 2 leagues to see if there is some drastic differences. I don’t believe for my part that I was making an attempt to blow something way out of proportion but I wanted to see just how much a difference there is between both leagues. Since I hear much talk of there being one.
The end result for me is like I said while there is a difference I don’t think it is something to be concerned over.
I honestly did not expect you or anyone be so animated over even the idea of someone being concerned over the Mets playing in Vegas. I can only apologize if the post is what bothered you so much as that is never the intent.
gategem
10/10/2012-12:48am at 12:48 am (UTC -4)
Good research Mr. NJ.
All we can do is speculate about the effect that the thin air (due to the altitude) has on breaking balls and the impact it could have on pitchers developing their curveball, slider, etc. Likewise how does a hitter learn to hit a breaking pitch when he sees mostly flat breaking pitches? But somehow teams manage to survive with minor league affiliates playing in such conditions. But it’s just another issue for some fans to whine about the FO.
darknova306
10/10/2012-1:45am at 1:45 am (UTC -4)
Hahaha, no worries, man. If I’m posting stuff this late, I’m probably not entirely sober, so I’ll be more animated than normal. Regardless, I’m seeing it creep into my twitter timeline and that MMO mailbag you link to doesn’t soundly dismiss this and just feeds the nonsense. The Blue Jays skipping Vegas for some of their pitchers proves nothing other than the fact some front office people in some organizations can be frightened by nonsense.
I kinda just miss the days when the minor league activities were almost unknown to most of us outside of the names of the rare “can’t miss” prospects. Sigh…