We already took a look at how poorly my projections turned out with regard to the Mets’ lineup, now let’s take a look at the pitching staff. The projections were made back in March, and were based on who would be in the starting rotation and bullpen on Opening Day. Tim Byrdak’s availability was in doubt at the time, therefore he was excluded.
I was a little closer on some of these than I was with the batters. My closest match was Jonathan Niese. He finished one decision better than I expected, and his ERA was lower. For the first time in his career, Niese finished strong in the second half – in fact, his ERA was lower after the All-Star Break (3.01) than before it (3.73). Guess the rhinoplasty helped.
My Dillon Gee was pretty accurate too, if you look at the pace he was on.
And my prediction for how many starts Johan Santana would make fell 2 games short of the actual number. My projection for him appeared pessimistic in the first half, but ended up looking optimistic by the time Santana finally shut it down.
My bullpen numbers were certainly much rosier than reality. But guys like Frank Francisco, Ramon Ramirez, and Manny Acosta greatly deviated from their average season. Jon Rauch was streaky, but ended up about where you’d expect him to be.
Two pitchers who exceeded expectations? Bobby Parnell, despite his continued struggles in high-leverage situations, had a breakout season. He learned to throttle back his fastball and hit his spots. And he also used the knuckle curve, taught to him by Jason Isringhausen, very effectively. And speaking of pitches with “knuckle” in them…
R.A. Dickey surprised most everyone with his Cy Young-caliber season. My projections had him doing about as well as the last two years, but assumed he would get more run support.
So, without further ado, here are the numbers:
|(In 19.2 innings due to injury)||Reality||0||0||2.29||1.42||N/A||N/A|
|(In 109.2 innings due to injury)||Reality||6||7||4.10||1.25||N/A||N/A|
|(In 117 innings due to injury)||Reality||6||9||4.85||1.37||21/21||N/A|