Jonathan Niese took a step forward in 2012.
We already took a look at how poorly my projections turned out with regard to the Mets’ lineup, now let’s take a look at the pitching staff. The projections were made back in March, and were based on who would be in the starting rotation and bullpen on Opening Day. Tim Byrdak’s availability was in doubt at the time, therefore he was excluded.
I was a little closer on some of these than I was with the batters. My closest match was Jonathan Niese. He finished one decision better than I expected, and his ERA was lower. For the first time in his career, Niese finished strong in the second half – in fact, his ERA was lower after the All-Star Break (3.01) than before it (3.73). Guess the rhinoplasty helped.
My Dillon Gee was pretty accurate too, if you look at the pace he was on.
And my prediction for how many starts Johan Santana would make fell 2 games short of the actual number. My projection for him appeared pessimistic in the first half, but ended up looking optimistic by the time Santana finally shut it down.
My bullpen numbers were certainly much rosier than reality. But guys like Frank Francisco, Ramon Ramirez, and Manny Acosta greatly deviated from their average season. Jon Rauch was streaky, but ended up about where you’d expect him to be.
Two pitchers who exceeded expectations? Bobby Parnell, despite his continued struggles in high-leverage situations, had a breakout season. He learned to throttle back his fastball and hit his spots. And he also used the knuckle curve, taught to him by Jason Isringhausen, very effectively. And speaking of pitches with “knuckle” in them…
R.A. Dickey surprised most everyone with his Cy Young-caliber season. My projections had him doing about as well as the last two years, but assumed he would get more run support.
So, without further ado, here are the numbers:
| Name | Wins | Losses | ERA | WHIP | G/GS | Saves | |
| R.A. Dickey | Me | 14 | 9 | 3.22 | 1.21 | N/A | N/A |
| Fan Graphs | 11 | 10 | 3.58 | 1.25 | N/A | N/A | |
| Reality | 20 | 6 | 2.73 | 1.05 | N/A | N/A | |
| Mike Pelfrey | Me | 8 | 14 | 4.61 | 1.44 | N/A | N/A |
| Fan Graphs | 11 | 11 | 4.30 | 1.43 | N/A | N/A | |
| (In 19.2 innings due to injury) | Reality | 0 | 0 | 2.29 | 1.42 | N/A | N/A |
| Jon Niese | Me | 12 | 10 | 4.13 | 1.38 | N/A | N/A |
| Fan Graphs | 12 | 10 | 3.88 | 1.33 | N/A | N/A | |
| Reality | 13 | 9 | 3.40 | 1.17 | N/A | N/A | |
| Dillon Gee | Me | 12 | 13 | 4.07 | 1.36 | N/A | N/A |
| Fan Graphs | 10 | 10 | 4.28 | 1.40 | N/A | N/A | |
| (In 109.2 innings due to injury) | Reality | 6 | 7 | 4.10 | 1.25 | N/A | N/A |
| Johan Santana | Me | 9 | 5 | 3.68 | 1.29 | 23/23 | N/A |
| Fan Graphs | 10 | 8 | 3.53 | 1.27 | 23/23 | N/A | |
| (In 117 innings due to injury) | Reality | 6 | 9 | 4.85 | 1.37 | 21/21 | N/A |
| Frank Francisco | Me | N/A | N/A | 3.67 | 1.33 | 62/0 | 29 |
| Fan Graphs | N/A | N/A | 3.37 | 1.20 | 56/0 | 27 | |
| Reality | 1 | 3 | 5.53 | 1.61 | 48/0 | 23 | |
| Jon Rauch | Me | N/A | N/A | 3.96 | 1.36 | 55/0 | N/A |
| Fan Graphs | N/A | N/A | 3.93 | 1.27 | 55/0 | N/A | |
| Reality | 3 | 7 | 3.40 | 1.17 | 73/0 | 4 | |
| Ramon Ramirez | Me | N/A | N/A | 2.81 | 1.18 | 72/0 | N/A |
| Fan Graphs | N/A | N/A | 2.92 | 1.29 | 64/0 | N/A | |
| Reality | 3 | 4 | 4.24 | 1.46 | 58/0 | 1 | |
| Manny Acosta | Me | N/A | N/A | 3.41 | 1.37 | 50/0 | N/A |
| Fan Graphs | N/A | N/A | 4.31 | 1.45 | 58/0 | N/A | |
| Reality | 1 | 3 | 6.46 | 1.54 | 45/0 | 1 | |
| Bobby Parnell | Me | N/A | N/A | 3.31 | 1.41 | 64/0 | N/A |
| Fan Graphs | N/A | N/A | 3.30 | 1.25 | 60/0 | N/A | |
| Reality | 5 | 4 | 2.49 | 1.24 | 74/0 | 7 |
11 comments
Stick
10/9/2012-7:48pm at 7:48 pm (UTC -4)
rauch did end up with overall good numbers (other than 7 losses) but man, talk about polar opposite season of up and down.
Just call him Lola. And elsewhere next year.
TRS86
10/10/2012-9:19am at 9:19 am (UTC -4)
I would be more than happy for Rauch to come back. I just think he got tired at the end but for 3/4 of the season he was dang near dominant.
Mr North Jersey
10/9/2012-7:53pm at 7:53 pm (UTC -4)
Not bad with the Niese pick.
srt
10/9/2012-10:09pm at 10:09 pm (UTC -4)
Not bad.
Seriously though, did anyone in baseball have Dickey winning 20 games and a potential CY winner? I know I didn’t. Closest I came was I expected him to be solid, maybe a touch more than 2011.
Also, did anyone see Pelfrey being the first to go down, let alone need TJ and out for the year?
All in all though, our SP was not really a problem. It was everything else from the BP to the defense and especially the second half offense.
darknova306
10/10/2012-2:04am at 2:04 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I was really surprised with Ramirez this year. I thought he’d continue to be the reliable guy he’d been up to that point, and that it was worth taking on the garbage of Andres Torres to do it. Oops.
And I’m so proud of Niese for finally living up to my hopes and having a strong season all the way through! Just have to hope it isn’t a fluke, though any good thing with the Mets is usually a fluke. Go Niese!
TRS86
10/10/2012-9:18am at 9:18 am (UTC -4)
Ramirez really tanked and gave all kinds of fuel to the Ant-Sandy section of the fanbase.
It logically makes no sense for him to have done so poorly but such as life in middle relief.
darknova306
10/10/2012-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
Yup. What it really shows is just how much of a crapshoot relievers are, but rational fans already know this
Paul Festa
10/10/2012-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
I supported the Ramirez trade as well, even though I liked Pagan better than Torres. The Mets were kind of unfortunate that Ramirez decided to have a bad year after they acquired him.
Stickguy
10/10/2012-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
I saw the logic too, and thought it was a reasonable trade. And it never was pagan for Torres as many of the Sandy bashers seem to think. He was just a spare part filler to give them ideally a 4th OF, or at most a placeholder until someone stepped into the job (Kirk).
Dom
10/14/2012-7:38pm at 7:38 pm (UTC -4)
dude
Dom
10/14/2012-7:38pm at 7:38 pm (UTC -4)
shit