I half wanted to write a post full of frustration after being treated to highlights of the 2006 collapse of the Mets during game 7 of the NLCS, but that would just be too painful for everyone. I apologize for even brining it up, but I had to get it off my chest. Instead, I’m going to be positive and look forward to what looks to be an excellent starting rotation in 2013.
The Starting 5:
First and foremost, the Mets have a bona fide, Cy Young to be (cross your fingers) pitcher in R.A. Dickey. Dickey had an amazing season this year, and if he’s able to repeat or come close to duplicating the same numbers next year, the Mets will have the edge whenever he’s on the mound. An important question for the team next year is; who will be the number two starter. I would stick with Johan Santana for now because of his phenomenal pedigree and how well he has played the first half of last year. I’m still a believer in Santana but his injuries are a continued concern. He has still been able to hit the low 90s with his fastball, and he continues to have a dynamic changeup. I still consider him a solid number-two starter assuming he’s healthy to begin the season. Jon Niese and Matt Harvey are interchangeable as the third and fourth starters in the rotation. Niese has more experience, but Harvey has the raw stuff, and had a successful beginning to his career. Both still have room to develop. Harvey more than Niese, since I think Niese still hasn’t reached his full potential. Both the third and fourth starter spots will be above league average. Last but not least, is Dillion Gee, who will most likely start the season as the fifth starter. There is nothing special about Gee, but he is more than equipped to hold down the fifth spot in the rotation, and will at the very least do an adequate job. I expect even more out of him than mediocrity however. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him have a below 4.00 ERA and FIP along with a respectable WHIP. With this rotation the Mets would also have a nice balance of righties and lefties with different pitching styles across the board. That will change what the batters see from game to game.
The Up and Comer:
As positive as I am on Dillion Gee, Zack Wheeler will ascend to his spot in the Mets rotation at some point next season. The addition of the hard throwing righthander who ranked as Baseball America’s tenth best prospect in their July update, will be a huge boost to the team. Wheeler lowered his walks and polished his secondary pitches in the minors this season and looks like he could step into the starting rotation immediately. However it’s unlikely he will start the year in the rotation because of service time issues. Whenever he comes up, he is going to make a good rotation, great.
The Sleeper:
Many fans may have heard Darin Gorski’s name, but may not know a lot about him. He’s a 6’4”, 25 year-old lefthander who throws an average fastball velocity and has a good feel for his secondary pitches. He blew through High Single-A in 2011 before slowing down a little at Double-A this season. If the Mets want to retain his services, they will have to add him to the 40-man roster to insure he isn’t chosen in the Rule 5 draft. Assuming the Mets add him to the 40-Man, don’t be surprised if he gets a shot at some point to see what he can do. It may turn out he doesn’t have the stuff for the show but don’t be surprised if he sees success at some point.
The Wild Cards:
Jenry Mejia and Jeurys Familia are the ultimate wild cards. Both have the power stuff to be good starting pitchers. Their lack of consistency is what holds back these two very talented pitchers. Alas, I like many others, feel that Familia and Mejia’s place is in the bullpen, but that is a story for another day. Just keep in mind there is a chance, no matter how slight, that one or both could find their way into the starting lineup at some point.
Possible Fill-ins:
If the rest of the rotation goes up in flames, Colin McHugh and Jeremy Hefner could be semi-decent fill-ins for a short stint here and there. Hopefully the Mets won’t have to trot McHugh, Hefner or any other low-level free agent to the mound for anything more than a spot start during the 2013 season.
On the Way Out:
The Mets will be non-tendering Mike Pelfrey, according to Mike Puma who said the Mets may still look to resign Big Pelf to a lesser deal. I don’t know what will happen with Pelfre,y but until he shows that he is healthy, and can make any kind of contribution to the team, I’m guessing he won’t be back. So say your goodbyes to the once top pick of the Mets. There were a few good moments, but sadly too many more maddening ones.
To sum this all up, the Mets rotation, barring injury and complete collapse, (which is always a possibility in baseball) the Mets will have an outstanding rotation in terms of both talent and depth. Watching the Giants win this post-season, relying on pitching, gives me some hope that the Mets can achieve some success on the basis of the starting rotation alone next season.
45 comments
trs86
10/26/2012-7:32am at 7:32 am (UTC -4)
Nice article, welcome back.
Stickguy
10/26/2012-9:01am at 9:01 am (UTC -4)
That Dickey guy should make a nice trade chip to fill in some gaping holes on the field, right?
A couple comments. First, I don’t think Wheeler will be taking Gees spot int he rotation (assuming he does not get hurt of course)> i expect Dillon to have a solid year. I have always liked him. More likely is that wheeler comes up when Santana breaks down (and you have to figure it is happening at some point).
And back to my (not facetious) comment about Dickey. Forget 2013 for now, because no way the team will have the goods to be a real playoff contender. Especially if all they do is keep the old gang together (sign dickey and wright) and shuffle some spare parts. So, at the earliest, you are looking at 2014, when there should be bigger changes.
so, every player has to be viewed through that prism. And in 2014, is it reasonable to expect Dickey to still be a top end guy, with a few more years of that to come? If not, trade him now for pieces that can help in 2014+.
Maybe the rotation becomes the best in the league, and they can become the 1973 Mets. Who still only won 82 games!
TX
10/26/2012-9:24am at 9:24 am (UTC -4)
This is my feelings as well. With the strength in SP and it seems some decent options on the way, I see no reason the Mets can’t turn Dickey into a top notch OF or C plus another prospect. You can fill in Dickey’s spot with a rehab project, add another rehab type to be a long man/spot starter and there you go.
Nice article and good to have you back.
kingman 26
10/26/2012-9:30am at 9:30 am (UTC -4)
But can’t everyone see how tremendously the rotation regresses without Dickey’s talent and reliability?
I just do not get talking about SP strength and then advocating the guy at the very top of that depth chart.
Makes no sense.
Trade RA and SP goes from a huge strength to a possible strength, one injury away from being not very strong at all.
TX
10/26/2012-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
Agreed, but trade Wright and our offense goes from AAA level to single A level, at least for the immediate future.
kingman 26
10/26/2012-9:40am at 9:40 am (UTC -4)
Nah, that sure would not have been the case in the 2nd half last year.
What is our team last year with a rehab project instead of Dickey—think of it that way.
Stickguy
10/26/2012-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)
you tend to exaggerate a bit about Wright in the 2nd half. 7/1 on, he had 12 HRs, 43 RBI, and a .765 OPS. Off from his career norms, but far from A ball or horrific levels. and probably still damned competitive for most 3Bs in the league.
TX
10/26/2012-10:25am at 10:25 am (UTC -4)
When I gloss through the FAs for 2014, there is not much of anything on the hitters side. Choo, Elsbury, a smattering of others. On the pitchers side, there is so much. Garza, Braden, Jimeniz, Johnson, Lincy, Nolasco, Slowely, Volquez and the totally awesome Nelson Figgy!!! Anywho, my point is with the talent they already have at SP, they can, if needed sign a bigger named SP for 2014 to bolster the rotation for a run at something not named “playing golf in october”. There is no fix on the positional FA roster that will be a magic fix. Though I wouldn’t mind Elsbury on this team at all…
kingman 26
10/26/2012-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
Post-break, Wright in 74 games hit .258/.334/.416.
He walked 31 times and struck out 65 times.
He was utterly mediocre, not worth remotely close to what his next contract will pay, and had 2nd half numbers eerily identical to his horrid 2011 year.
And he turns 30 soon.
srt
10/26/2012-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
Have to agree with Kingman here.
Right now SP is our only strength. RA is a proven solid pitcher.
That can change in a blink of an eye. We lost two thirds of our rotation to injury last season along the way.
I get that in order to improve the club, with lack of money, trades have to be involved. I believe Dickey has more worth to the club then he would in a trade. If someone wants to trade their young talented C F though, I’d have to consider it. Just don’t see that happening.
I’d just assume hold onto RA, Niese and Harvey.
TX
10/26/2012-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
Yup, you said it. With the lack of funds, there is no way to address needs without trading. And yes, I wish they could retain Dickey and Wright, sign Bourne, Napoli, re-sign Kevin Mitchell (For fear factor alone)… But other than the re-sign Dickey and Wright and do nothing else, they will have to trade one of Dickey/Wright if not both in order to plug multiple holes.
My feeling, replacing Dickey is easier than replacing Wright, from a purely We have pitchers/We have no hitters perspective.
srt
10/26/2012-3:17pm at 3:17 pm (UTC -4)
‘…replacing Dickey is easier than replacing Wright, from a purely We have pitchers/We have no hitters perspective.’
This is true, since the only depth we really seem to have right now is pitching.
That and we’re really light on RH hitters, of which Wright is just about the only one – unless you want to count Bay.
kingman 26
10/26/2012-9:29am at 9:29 am (UTC -4)
Nice piece, welcome back, and damn we need to re-sign Dickey and TRADE WRIGHT!
I think the rotation is RA/Niese/Harvey/Johan/Gee. Wheeler, assuming he continues progressing and everyone stays healthy, takes Johan’s spot midseason if any team is willing to trade absolutely anything for him and take even a few thousand of his salary. 1-hitter or not, enough of Johan. He needs to go before he gets hurt for the 25th straight year.
I agree 100% that the starting pitching is this team’s one hope for accomplishing absolutely anything in the next couple of years, which is why I am adamant about not trading Dickey or Niese. And Mejia and Familia could be excellent in the pen, and as guys ready to take the place of an injured starter.
I like Stick’s 1973 Mets idea; once we trade Wright, that becomes an even better parallel.
Prismo
10/26/2012-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
I don’t know about you Kingman, but I have a strong gut feeling that Santana will make 10-15 starts and be shut down due to some injury, never again playing for the Mets. The good news is that I won’t be upset, because I already expect it to happen.
kingman 26
10/26/2012-9:51am at 9:51 am (UTC -4)
That is pretty much what I expect, although I guess the one thing we can hope for is that, as Johan will be playing for his next contract to a large degree, maybe he will make more of an effort to stay on the field?
Regardless, if any team is willing to eat even a few million, and if Wheeler is ready, get the hell rid of Johan, bring Wheeler up, and move one step further toward the real future.
darknova306
10/26/2012-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
Given how pitching staffs usually go, you have to count on at least one guy going down with a significant injury at some point, and one guy not living up to expectations (or also getting hurt). This is why pitching depth is the most important thing to a winning team. When they feel Wheeler is ready, he’ll have an easy slot to slide into in the rotation, and the rotation’s dwindling strength at that point will badly need his infusion of talent.
Daniel Stein-Sayles
10/26/2012-9:55am at 9:55 am (UTC -4)
Thank you, I have just been so busy with school. I agree with Kingman, the Mets have to hold onto Dickey. If the Mets have any chance of success next year it’s on the back of this rotation and Dickey is the best and most consistent part of the rotation. I know he would fetch a lot in a trade but at least for now I don’t think it would be worth it.
Stickguy
10/26/2012-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
I am willing to trade a reasonable chance at a decent, balanced, competitive team in 2014/2015 by giving up dickey and the pipedream of competing in 2013. And by the time the Mets can develop any nucleus talent, dickey will be in his 40s and/or done with his deal anyway.
so trade him now if he can help build the future.
kingman 26
10/26/2012-10:48am at 10:48 am (UTC -4)
Dickey will be 39 in 2014.
Stickguy
10/26/2012-11:00am at 11:00 am (UTC -4)
39 is the new 40. and still damned old for a MLB player.
HobokenMetsFan
10/26/2012-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
Also keep in mind that Wheeler will be on an innings limit similar to what Harvey was on this year. I’ve been advocating the trades of Wright and Dickey for a few weeks on The Official Error Blog of the NY Mets, but at the very least, one of them needs to be traded.
I see the positives of retaining Dickey, but to me, this feels like one of those scenarios where other teams make the hard decision to trade their stars/fan favorites. It doesn’t always work, but the Mets haven’t been in this position for a long time and I feel it would be foolish to pass it up.
Stickguy
10/26/2012-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
the other problem is, if the Mets take the easy “appeasement” option (extend them both for big $$), then that is it. they are done for 2013, and most likely, 2014 too. Plus, there will still be absolutely zippo offensive talent coming up to help, and very little real money to spend.
so basically, you will continue to have the 2012 Mets, just getting older and older, with the hope that some young SPs will be enough to counteract the lack of talent on the field.
HobokenMetsFan
10/26/2012-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
Exactly. The only way it makes sense to extend them both is if the Wilpon’s can (and will) invest Santana/Bay/FF’s money back into the team after they come off the books.
Otherwise, this is going to just further the mess we are in. I was really hoping for a big organizational shift with the new FO, but I’m afraid that extending Dickey/Wright will just signal more of the same
Stickguy
10/26/2012-11:03am at 11:03 am (UTC -4)
I am with you. I really thought we were going to get a dramatic shift in teh way they operated, and bold moves to reshape the team. Instead, we got inertia and more of the same. Really have to think at this point n FO is going to work differently since the owners don’t want them to.
and investing the money back is a great idea, but the FA pool has been getting shallower, so what prime building blocks will they find to spend it on? Or just more old, overpriced, filler pieces?
TX
10/26/2012-11:06am at 11:06 am (UTC -4)
The FA SP pool is deep. Just sayin…
HobokenMetsFan
10/26/2012-11:15am at 11:15 am (UTC -4)
I’m imagining (in a perfect world, mind you) that the Mets will use the FA market to fill in around the edges while adding a “mid range” player or two, but really be able to assume salary in trades. — whether that happens or not is up in the air, but with the lack of talent entering FA as the years go on, the FO needs to get more and more creative…..a scary proposition!
TX
10/26/2012-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
Hoboken, Completely agree.
My wacky, never to happen, arm chair GM plan would be this:
Trade Bay for Vernon Wells (assuming Halos take on 18 mil of Wells salary, which gives about 6 million in relief for this year
Trade Dickey to Toronto for JP, Gose and Hecheverirrisireisiaisiaaha.
Re-sign Wright.
Look to add another SP by using Murph (though I don’t want to), Familia, Valdy, etc. to get a SP (4 or a 5 type. better if it can be swung).
Use the remaining cash to bolster the BP. Be it bring back Rauch or sign an actual closer type, though none come to mind.
Then in 2014, you can look to add a higher notched SP to strengthen a rotation of Harvey/Wheeler/Niese.
Again, it is all silly ramblings and since it rains all the time here, my mind wanders and this is the junk that it wanders around.
Stickguy
10/26/2012-1:16pm at 1:16 pm (UTC -4)
PAC (I still don’t know why of the 3 locals, you picked the one you liked the least!), you and Knog need to have a death cage match to find a winner.
he wants to trade wright desperately, and hang onto Dickey at all costs (pun not intended).
you want to move RA, and keep wright.
Me, I say screw it, lets have some fun, and trade them both then keep making moves until the dust settles.
Stickguy
10/26/2012-1:17pm at 1:17 pm (UTC -4)
oh, don’t worry about the rain. I hear it only lasts for about 6 months. Be over before you know it, then you can have summer!
TX
10/26/2012-1:41pm at 1:41 pm (UTC -4)
If I change my name again, I will have crossed the limits of name changes for a 6 month time span.
I’m going to start brewing beer with extra B vitamins and D vitamins to be the ultimate depression battler!
kingman 26
10/26/2012-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
Welcome!
It’s ChestRockwell from the error blog! As you can see, I behave differently here when I am around only folks like you.
Hope you spend time here Hoboken!
This is one of the many great people at MetsBlog.
HobokenMetsFan
10/26/2012-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
Thanks Chest/kingman, glad to be here! Looking forward to some more great conversations with you and the folks here.
HobokenMetsFan
10/26/2012-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
(minus the “more” hah)
SaltyGary
10/26/2012-11:05am at 11:05 am (UTC -4)
” The Official Error Blog of the NY Mets”
ROFL!!!
Stickguy
10/26/2012-4:25pm at 4:25 pm (UTC -4)
There is something though you can’t discount about Dickey. he is old. Yes, maybe a little lower than normal miles on him, but he is still ancient by MLB pitching standards.
Plus, he has had significant injury issues the last 2 years (foot and abdomen) that required constant medical support (shots every start in 2011 I believe).
so, while he seems to have a high pain tollerance, will that continue as he gets even older, and more key, he has a LT last big deal in place?
I know there is a mystique to the guy, but if he was in the 1st year of a 3-4 year deal, would he try to pitch through a muscle tear, or say screw it and have it fixed or go on the DL? Would not be the first guy that was tough until they had the money locked up, then no longer felt like playing through the pain
and the KB aspect, you watch him pitch, and he does put a lot of effort into it (you never saw Phil Neikro roar and MPH takes some effort, KB or not. So I just can’t buy the “he can pitch to 60″ stuff.
Anyway, I love the guy. Love to see him pitch. Hope he can repeat 2012 for another 3-4 years, but am not betting on it. And I still think if he can get a windfall back, they need positional talent more than an expensive RA for another 4 years.
TX
10/26/2012-4:55pm at 4:55 pm (UTC -4)
I agree.
It’s like a triangle of options. Me for trade Dickey, Kong for Trade Wright, and you for Trade them all. I guess we could stretch this out to a rectangle and have SRT and her side of Keep them Both.
Stickguy
10/26/2012-6:01pm at 6:01 pm (UTC -4)
we need one of those overlapping circle diagrams to see where the answer lies!
sadly, there is the 5th Beatle (er, option). They paralyze, and go the Reyes path. Exercise the options, then go into the season with them as pending FAs.
I will be astounded if they are stupid (or scared) enough to let that happen, but with this operation, nothing truly surprises me.
I really thought that we were going to see a lot of bold moves to try and remake the team. Man, was I wrong!
darknova306
10/28/2012-12:01am at 12:01 am (UTC -4)
I’d like to say I can’t imagine them going the ‘Reyes route’ with Wright and Dickey, but nothing about this franchise’s ownership/leadership surprises me.
That being said, I’m all on board with Stick about trading both. The Mets need a HUGE infusion of talent for the future. There are a ton of holes on this team (more than a lot of fans want to believe) and they’re not being filled from the team’s current minor league system. And regardless of Dickey’s presence, the long term future of the Mets’ starting rotation will sink or swim with Harvey/Wheeler/Niese.
Man, this team… oy…
Trs86
10/26/2012-6:37pm at 6:37 pm (UTC -4)
To me if you trade Wright you damn well better trade Dickey because you aren’t competing until 2015 anyway.
Stickguy
10/26/2012-6:43pm at 6:43 pm (UTC -4)
what he said. though 2014 could be the surprise year.
Trs86
10/26/2012-6:52pm at 6:52 pm (UTC -4)
2014 can be if you trade both Wright and Dickey or if you keep them. Just depends on development and return. Specifically trading just Wright isn’t gonna replace Wrights production offensively.
TX
10/26/2012-6:56pm at 6:56 pm (UTC -4)
Not necessarily. If you just trade Dickey, and then have the funds to add a quality SP from the 2014 FA class, and the people you get from the dickey trade fill some much needed holes (C & OF), i can’t see why they can’t compete in 2014.
trs86
10/27/2012-7:50am at 7:50 am (UTC -4)
I thought that was what i implied. Yiu can trade just Dickey and kepp Wright and be ready by 2014, not the iter way around.
trs86
10/27/2012-7:52am at 7:52 am (UTC -4)
Damn phone…
Trs86
10/26/2012-6:50pm at 6:50 pm (UTC -4)
By the way, welcome Hobo.