Author’s Note: This piece is inspired by recent media speculation on a topic which is clearly on the mind of every Met fan right now, and also by The Sunday Question appearing today on this site, courtesy of my esteemed colleague Gonzo Will.
Tabloid media member Joel Sherman has posited, supposedly based on many conversations with MLB execs, that David Wright would want/get an extension beyond his 2013 club option of about 7 years and $127 million. This is based on contracts for players like Ryan Zimmerman and Johan Santana, and also somewhat based on Wright’s intrinsic value to the club as a homegrown fixture.
Assuming that this is even close to resembling truth, it is a disaster in the making, and simply not in the best interests of the team going forward.
David Wright is a very good player; this is certainly true. But he has not been the great David Wright since 2008. From 2005—2008 Wright was a true star every year. Whether measuring by WAR, more traditional means, MVP votes, annual All Star Game appearances, 2007—2008 Silver Sluggers and Gold Gloves, Wright was one of the best young players in the game and seemed poised for a Hall of Fame career.
But it has not continued like that. Be it Citi Field or the pressure of losing some of his colleagues from 2006—2008, 2009 started out differently. He still hit for average and got on base, but his power disappeared. After the Cain beaning later that year, when he returned, he was not the same player. In 2010, Wright hit his 2B and HR, but BB, K, BA, and OBP were all diminished from his glory years. 2011, largely due to injuries, was by far his worst year. In 2012, Wright was having an MVP first half, but after the break, he reverted to his 2011 production. His 2012 WAR was outstanding, but is skewed by his first half and his excellent defense—for nearly half of the season, he simply was not a player you pay $18 million for.
So what to think? Wright turns 30 soon. He would be 31 when this extension begins. How many 7-year deals beginning at age 31 turn out well?
—————————————————————————————————————————–
Based on various blog comments and polls, it appears that a large number of fans—if not a sizable majority—seem to favor this. It appears as though, however, a significant number of frequent commenters at these sites do not. What this may show is that the more casual fan, who attends a few games a year, watches many on TV, and who owns a Wright jersey (which will be available in exciting new designs in 2013) supports this. While, on the other hand, the more serious fan who truly wants their team to win regardless of who is on the field, might not support this in nearly as great numbers.
It seems like this idea, again, if true, is more of a marketing ploy than a serious move to improve the team. Wright is beloved. Despite the small minority which unfairly blames him for the failures of 2007 and 2008, he was indeed great those years, especially late in the season. He has played though injuries, been stoic through four seasons now of disastrous results, and seems like a great person.
But the time to move on is now.
—————————————————————————————————————————–
The Mets are building what has the potential to be a great rotation. The hope here is for a return of Dickey and an extension, as the roughly 3/40 which all signs point to him costing would be a fraction of the commitment to Wright, and the value he has provided during his entire Met career argues strongly that this is a risk well worth taking. Niese put up his by far best year, is 26, and is signed for years. Harvey exceeded most expectations in his debut season and appears poised for stardom. Gee, if healthy, is a very solid number five. A healthy Johan possibly replaced in-season by Wheeler to complete the staff has the potential to be among the league’s best. Yes, everyone must be healthy, Harvey must continue his ascent, and Wheeler must follow in Harvey’s footsteps. But every Met fan, even those hardened by cynicism after recent years, has to see the sterling potential here.
As teams ranging from the 1960s Dodgers to the 1969 Mets right up to the current Giants show, titles can be won with great starting pitching, solid bullpens, and just a bunch of good fundamental players around them. Sure, some teams like the Big Red Machine and the 1986 Mets were powerhouses both offensely and pitching-wise—but the current Mets are simply nowhere close to putting together a championship-level offense. Those who argue against giving up our “best player” are failing to note that this is not like the 1970s Reds giving up Morgan to still have Bench and Rose and more, or the 1986 Mets giving up Keith to still have Darryl and Carter and more. There’s nothing close to star level after Wright, but there are some decent pieces. Meaning that trading Wright would not be breaking up an outstanding offensive core in any way.
The feeling here is that Ike and Tejada are two excellent pieces for a team centered on starting pitching to build on. Both fine fielders, Tejada has a sound all-around game and great plate discipline, and Ike has a knack for belting HRs with men on base. Perhaps Wilmer Flores is your 3B in two years. Maybe one of the prospects acquired for Wright fills another spot. If just one or two others from within the organization develop well and money not spent on Wright is used to bring in a fine outfielder, in 2014 you could see a team surprisingly close to contention.
—————————————————————————————————————————–
There’s no doubt that trading Wright would cause serious repercussions within a large segment of the fan base. But this is not trading Seaver in 1977–it’s not a move made simply due to utter apathy regarding winning. This is a move which must be made with the recent past and the near future in mind. Sure, finances play a part, as the team does not project to be a team which can spend its way out of errors, as they did to a degree under Minaya, and in the manner teams like the Yanks, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, etc., do and have recently done. Yes, the Met payroll will be decent, but the days of it being among the league’s highest are gone for the foreseeable future. This must be taken into consideration.
Does Wright deserve this deal if it is 2007 or 2008? Most definitely. But it isn’t. Imagine if he does sign this deal, and 2013—2016’s Wright numbers are precisely what 2009—2012’s were. That would make this deal look pretty bad, and there is indeed a much greater likelihood of that than for him returning to his 2005—2008 form.
Does Wright deserve to be overpaid because he is (largely by default based on recent years) the “face of the franchise?” Is his wearing a Met uniform his entire career more important than the team’s overall performance?
Examining recent history, the Mets’ current financial situation, Wright’s career, the current strengths of this team, and how many everyday positions are currently lacking in talent and long-term hope, common sense seems to dictate—and with a very clear and reasonable voice—that trading David Wright for the best package of prospects and/or young players you can obtain is quite clearly the right move.
Let’s hope the Met front office thinks with their heads and not their hearts on this very important matter.
27 comments
Stickguy
10/28/2012-12:44pm at 12:44 pm (UTC -4)
You trade wright, it is to get young pieces to start building with over the next few years. IOW, the same timeframe you want to spend money on Dickey. Much better idea to cash him in too if you can get a good return, and use all the new talent from both trades to help build the new foundation.
\and of course,e the boatload of money saved in 2013, and especially 2014 (30mill alone for DW and RAD) to actually go get the ST contracts to put you over the top.
and, if the prospects don’t hit the big time, you still have the $$ flexibility to go after replacement parts (via trade or FA).
IMO, you sign DW and Dickey and the team will look the same for 2-3 years, and be mediocre with no upside, based on the absolute dearth of positional talent in the minors. And you would have pretty much invested the “big” available payroll to 2 guys that are not going to matter when/if they finally do have a new foundation (coming out of A ball this year).
If wright goes, dickey has to go with him. Besides, RA is on record saying they are a package deal, so Knog, you are living in an internet fantasy land thinking they can trade wright and keep Dickey. You want RA, you get DW too!
kingman 26
10/28/2012-12:50pm at 12:50 pm (UTC -4)
I disagree.
RA is in on record until the 3/40-something deal is on the table in front of him.
He’s into charities, being an author, high-profile things, etc, and NY is the ideal place to do those sorts of things.
Stickguy
10/28/2012-12:57pm at 12:57 pm (UTC -4)
he is getting paid regardless. and charities can be run from anywhere.
the guy is old, and may want to be on a winning team before he retires. He said that, and i believe him. I also do’t expect him to cave because the mets offer Ollie money.
kingman 26
10/28/2012-1:00pm at 1:00 pm (UTC -4)
Well my friend, we can agree to disagree.
Of course charities can be run from anywhere. But if you do not think Manahattan has more opportunities 365 days a year to raise money, awareness, and the profile of a charity for a pro athlete, you are indeed quite the expert in fantasyland. NYC is the media/financial center of the nation, and anything he can do in St. Louis or Dallas or Detroit he can do utterly easier and much more effectively in high-profile Manhattan.
Stickguy
10/28/2012-2:23pm at 2:23 pm (UTC -4)
he is deep into the twilight of his career. In a few years when he is retired, he can spend the next 40 years living in NYC if he wants. right now, he has a few years left to worry about the game and his career.
besides, a lot of these guys don’t even live here (just have an in-season residence), .
kingman 26
10/28/2012-2:32pm at 2:32 pm (UTC -4)
Stick, in-season is half the year.
And he may not view this as the deep twilight–he’s been successful for just three years!
He may seriously view this as the middle of a 6–8 year period of success.
Stickguy
10/28/2012-2:44pm at 2:44 pm (UTC -4)
they ALL follow the money. If he gets more, he can put more into charity. And I have no idea where his stuff is set up, but he can be active in it even on another team.
NYM
10/28/2012-1:17pm at 1:17 pm (UTC -4)
Even Wright’s 2009 and 2010 were estimated as being worth about 16 mil a year….with salaries in general rising that type of production likely would be worth around 18 mil a year a few years from now. A 3b posting an OPS+ of 120-130 is still very good. Even in Wright’s career low, injury riddled year he put up an OPS+ of 115.
And I don’t think it is a correct assertion that those who want the Mets to retain Wright are mostly the “casual” fans who don’t care about winning and losing. There are probably some of those people out there…but I don’t think the opinions of those people are likely to be expressed in polls on Mets blogs and forums. “Commenters” might tend to be more negative b/c they are the “vocal minority”…often times responses are generated when people disagree with what is said and feel the need to respond and argue against it (like what I am doing now). I consider myself to be a hardcore Mets fan and I want them to re-sign Wright b/c I think keeping him (an established middle of the order bat and a relatively premium position) is the best way to help the team build towards a winner. I don’t own any Wright jerseys…and I don’t particularly care about the “Face of the Franchise” title. I’m not confident all the prospects will pan out or that the likes of Tejada and Davis being the centerpiece of our lineup is nearly enough.
Now I do agree if the Mets don’t really plan to try to win at all over the next few years than its pretty pointless to keep Wright. But I think thats the same problem if they let go of Wright as well. I’m not optimistic enough to believe prospects pan out the Mets make a couple great FA signings with that 18 mil and everything is all glorious in Mets land again.
kingman 26
10/28/2012-1:33pm at 1:33 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks for the response. My ideas on the fans who want Wright are largely based on a Metsblog poll—simply as it is by far the site with the largest readership—and something like 73% of those who voted want Wright and nowhere near that level of support is found among regular commenters. There are surely many exceptions to these ideas of course.
Fangraphs’ or whoever’s salary projections are not the holy grail, 2010 will be 4 years ago when this possible extension STARTS, and the overall payroll and spending ability of the team in question must be taken into consideration when judging a player’s salary.
kingman 26
10/28/2012-1:35pm at 1:35 pm (UTC -4)
GO DOLPHINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jets playing a really smart, fundamentally sound game thus far today.
Tebow even sucks on punt blocking.
Stickguy
10/28/2012-2:28pm at 2:28 pm (UTC -4)
The Dolphins are still around? Who knew!
kingman 26
10/28/2012-2:33pm at 2:33 pm (UTC -4)
Ouch!
LOL!
Good one Stick.
Let’s see the Giants kick the Cowgirls’ butts and we have a great football day.
Definitely makes having to work half the day more palatable!
Stick
10/28/2012-3:23pm at 3:23 pm (UTC -4)
just turned on the TV to see the Eagles getting smacked around by the Falcons. If that keeps up, I will be happy as a clam sports wise so far today. Just need the G-men to take out the Cowboys, and with the Skins losing too, they can have a stranglehold on the division.
actually, the best thing about the eagles game is when they show the stands and the sidelines, an Reid and the fans are soaking wet and looking all depressed.
almost makes the rain worthwhile, though sometime Tuesday when my power is out and there are 8″ of water in my basement, I may take that back.
Saltygary
10/28/2012-3:24pm at 3:24 pm (UTC -4)
You see Tannehill’s fiancée on hard knocks? Lil too skinny for my taste but regardless the QB cashed in.
kingman 26
10/28/2012-4:14pm at 4:14 pm (UTC -4)
I saw her.
Damn.
Me like.
Stick
10/28/2012-7:52pm at 7:52 pm (UTC -4)
Just have to say, while every win is big, the Giants are going to kill me at this pace.
TX
10/28/2012-10:15pm at 10:15 pm (UTC -4)
Kong, while I think you are completely wrong in your thinking that signing Wright, even at that money, is the wrong way to go, your articles are always top quality. Not a backhanded compliment. You write well.
Now, I know that at the end of the contract, Wright will not be an 18 million a year player. But we all know, that is how these contracts work. The team needs to plan accordingly. In 2017+, if this team is not back up to a payroll of 150mil, well, then the grasp of the Wilpons will be gone. At that time, new ownership would be rolling through and the infusion of new money will cover the bad contracts of old.
Will Wright at that contract kill this team? No. If there are 4 of those type contacts at the same time? Well, yeah, then that might do it.
Oh, and trade Dickey. He’s old, at the peak of his value and the team has more SP than batters.
kingman 26
10/28/2012-10:35pm at 10:35 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks TX–I really try hard to provide quality content for you and the others of our Core, and your kind words are really and truly appreciated.
gategem
10/29/2012-2:32am at 2:32 am (UTC -4)
I write this with the knowledge that in a few hours the storm and the subsequent loss of power will prevent me from accessing the internet for the rest of the week or longer if the wind or a tree does damage to my home. I hope all of you that are affected by this storm will escape unscathed.
Even from a marketing viewpoint David Wright is not the icon he is made out to be. When Ralph Kiner played for the woebegone Pirates fans would attend games because of Kiner’s homerun prowess. After Kiner would bat for the last time the fans would leave in droves. Wright doesn’t attract fans in the same way. I’m not sure many people attend Mets games just to see Wright play. So right now the best use of Wrights talents would be to trade him for prospects that can fill the many holes on this ballclub. I think signing a 31 year old Wright to a 7 year deal is preposterous.
srt
10/29/2012-8:18am at 8:18 am (UTC -4)
Very well thought out opinion on Wright. While I understand the argument and you make some very good points, I’m leaning towards retaining Wright.
No, I don’t think he’s a typical superstar but I still believe his value justifies signing him. Along with turning this franchise around, they’re also trying to bolster the Met brand. Letting Wright go means they’re starting completely from scratch. Ike and Tejeda – as you’ve mentioned – are not going to do it, at least not anytime soon.
I believe this is Wright’s team, if he wants it. No guarantee he does, as comments from the Mets camp is he’s considering their plan for competing in the near future.
Even if we trade him for a boatload of prospects, we’re immediately downgrading at 3rd, and likely 2nd as well. That might not reverse itself for years. We don’t know what Flores will do when he hits the MLs, although I’ve go my fingers crossed. We don’t know if prospects returned will pan out. In the meantime, we could be waiting years for someone to step up as a leader of the team.
I’m hoping the deal they work out just isn’t 7 guaranteed years – hoping maybe at least the last year is a club option. I have less of a problem with the 18 million or so a year, as much as those guaranteed years. Here’s hoping this is where the FO shows the smarts to get it done right.
TX
10/29/2012-8:58am at 8:58 am (UTC -4)
You bring up memories of Grave’s piece about trading stars for prospects. Wright is a known commodity. And a Very good one to boot. Considering the sheer cliff that falls off after Wright and Ike, it will be more detrimental to the team to trade Wright vs Dickey. You miss on the prospects with Dickey, you have Harvey, Niese, etc. You miss on the prospects with Wright, you have Ike and…
kingman 26
10/29/2012-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
There are many, many deals where trading established players for prospects have worked out.
Many.
Omar’s Colon deal? Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips I think.
Glenn Davis for Schilling and Finley?
Mark Langston for prospect Randy Johnson?
Matt Holiday for Carlos Gonzalez and Street?
Beckett for Hanley and Anibal Sanchez?
Texas did OK in the Teixeira trade.
Mazzilli for Darling and Terrell?
srt
10/29/2012-11:13am at 11:13 am (UTC -4)
‘Omar’s Colon deal? Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips I think.’
O.K., I just had to laugh at that one. We all know most GMs would have never made that deal.
You’re right though – there are exceptions for trading a star for prospects. Just not sure I’d put it in the ‘many, many’ category.
srt
10/29/2012-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
That was an excellent piece by Grave and I was thinking of it too when I was typing my comment.
He clearly showed for the majority of time, it doesn’t work out for the team getting prospects but there were exceptions.
That being said….I guess you all know I’m on the side of the fence for keeping Wright.
darknova306
10/29/2012-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
Keeping Wright just gives us the same mediocrity on the field we’ve already been watching. And which Wright are you getting for the next couple years before his “decline phase” starts? We have no clue because he hasn’t been consistent in years.
Where are the Mets going to get that boatload of position player talent they desperately need to surround Wright with? Even if you assume the Wilpons will start spending money next offseason, they have a lot of holes to fill, which is made ever more challenging by so many teams locking up their talent. The FA pools have become pretty weak these days outside of a few elite names at the top, and how many real trading chips do the Mets have right now to fill holes outside of FA?
I’d say the best chance the Mets have to get the influx of position player talent they need to build an eventual contender would be to trade Wright and Dickey. This rebuilding process is still far from over.
Oklahoma Met
10/30/2012-6:32pm at 6:32 pm (UTC -4)
Very good piece Mr. Kingman. Always enjoy your writing. I’m of the opinion that they should trade Wright. The way the team sits now, as Darknova said, “gives us the same mediocrity on the field we’ve already been watching.” Until the Madoff mess, I would have loved to have seen DW as the Met Lifer. Now, maybe Niese, Harvey, Wheeler, or even Davis will be that guy. I’d hate to see him move on, but now would be the time for the Mets to do it. As long as he does not go to the Yanks, Phils, Braves, or D’backs. Or Marlins. Or the Brewers…they have always bothered me, so forget them.
kingman 26
10/30/2012-7:39pm at 7:39 pm (UTC -4)
Thank you! And thanks for being here and for reading.