I hope everyone is staying safe over the next couple days! If you still have power and internet, maybe this can keep you busy for a few minutes.
MLB Trade Rumors just posted its projects arbitration salaries for 2013, so I think this is a good time to take another look at what the Mets and Sandy Alderson have to work with this offseason. According to MLBTR, the following arbitration figures are most likely for our players:
- Mike Pelfrey – $5.7MM
- Andres Torres – $3.2MM
- Daniel Murphy – $3MM
- Ike Davis – $2.8MM
- Bobby Parnell – $1.5MM
- Josh Thole – $1.2MM
- Manny Acosta – $1.1MM
We know Pelfrey is gone and with any sanity Torres is as well (he’s not terrible, but I don’t think the Mets have $3.2MM laying around to pay a 4th outfielder). I haven’t heard what the team’s plans for Acosta are, but I assume that could go either way. So adding David, Parnell, Thole, and Murphy to the currently signed players and the pre-arbitration players (who will make around $.49MM, the minimum salary) and including the picked-up options for Wright and Dickey…we have a payroll of $85.2MM for 15 players who will most likely be in the majors. Add in 10 more players to round out the roster at minimum salaries and we’re up to $90.1MM as a grand total minimum payroll just to field a team in 2013.
Of course we all know neither Wright or Dickey’s salaries aren’t set in stone. With extensions, either could see a pay increase this season. That aside, it looks as if the Mets will indeed have close to $10MM to spend this offseason (with that minimum salary of about 1/2 a million already accounted for in any free agent signings). The most glaring holes in the roster are a catcher, several relief pitchers, and possibly an outfielder. How do you think the Mets should spend the ~$10MM?
66 comments
TX
10/29/2012-3:25pm at 3:25 pm (UTC -4)
Well, there is no way Wright or Dickey will see increases this year. They may get killer extensions, but that all will kick in the following year. If you figure a million of that 10 will go towards a catcher. Maybe ShopVac or equivalent at 1.5 mil… Will need to get a Johnny Gomes type RH OF type for the OF. Figure 3 mil plus there. I would figure 2 BP arms at about 3 mil total. That’s 7.5 mil… So, 2.5 to play with for an OF and bench filler.
I still contend that they should flip Bay for Vernon Wells, with the Angels eating 18+ mil. That would spread the chunk of change owed this year and spread it over 2 years, thus netting like 6 Mil in flexibility this year. And while Wells isn’t good, he can play everyday and is an upgrade to what this team currently has.
Stickguy
10/29/2012-3:40pm at 3:40 pm (UTC -4)
real easy way to free up about 21million of course. and really remake the team.
Pelf, Torres and Acosta will not be tendered. If any of them are back, it will be as one of those lower paid guys.
With a limited budget, I expect to see them roll with a cheap BP. A couple of the minors guys, and filled in with a few cheap FA PUS (maybe 1 mill or so).
something like Frnaky, parnell, edgin, carson, hefner (lng/swing guy). plus 2 new guys (live arm out of the minors (mejia/familia/someone else, or FA cheapie.
so, that money likely goes to 1 “real” OF, then whatever filler peices they can get.
but, overall, if they keep Dickey and Wright, the team you see is the team you will get, with no more than 1 new position guy, and maybe a different 5th starter/spare guy to replace Young.
TX
10/29/2012-4:30pm at 4:30 pm (UTC -4)
Think happy thoughts.
kingman 26
10/29/2012-6:08pm at 6:08 pm (UTC -4)
Well, Prismo’s back, I am back, damn, like old times.
First off, don’t sell Torres short—I think he makes an excellent case for being terrible.
As for spending the $$$, I think that it is abundantly clear that either Shopvac or another terrible catcher will be signed, a bench OF to replace the now-too-expensive Hairston will be brought in, and 1-2 new bullpen arms will be found, and that will be it.
We will see an opening day of Thole/Ike/Murphy/Tejada/Wright/Bay/Kirk/Duda, and minor differences.
Unless thay wake the F*** up and TRAID Wright.
And keep Dickey. Dickey must be handled well so he can be extended.
Hazmet
10/29/2012-6:46pm at 6:46 pm (UTC -4)
Come here often sailor?
Before I use the last of my battery power:
Yes, I’d like to hold onto Dickey (snicker) but at $5M for next year Dickey might yield a bigger package (snicker part 2) – yes, I’m a 50 year old adolescent.
I don’t know what to make of what their plans may be. We’ve gotta a bunch of mediocre guys costing a little more than mediocre salaries that can just be replaced with other mediocre guys. For the outfield I’ve been an advocate of sign Melky the steroid champ on the cheap for a yearish and trade for Carlos Gomez and platoon Bay/Duda. Short term solution with a minor upside. Outside of that – I got nothing with what their budget constraints will be.
TRAID? what be TRAID? ohhhhh Trade…. hee hee.
Hope you don’t get storm remnants like Irene last year. Stay safe.
kingman 26
10/29/2012-8:07pm at 8:07 pm (UTC -4)
Haz–I promise to be here more often and I hope you are too.
Stick
10/29/2012-7:01pm at 7:01 pm (UTC -4)
I think you pretty much have it right Knog, with a couple of quibbles.
1) Bay is getting cut. even if he is the “big move” bone thrown to the fans. Or just because he is going to suck rocks in ST too.
2) to go along with #1, the 1 actual big move is going to be a trade for an OF. Gomez could be an option. Probably not a big name like Gordon, but someone new.
3) the pen will be returnees, supplemented by a couple of MiL live arms and cheap MiL FA types fighting for a job in ST. No big money/name brand guys here.
4) they need to trade Dickey too. remember, he went public that he is a package deal with DW, so you trade Wright, you better be prepared to trade Dickey right after.
TX
10/29/2012-7:14pm at 7:14 pm (UTC -4)
Wight Dickey Package? I hear they are looking to sign Koreans Hung Well and Long Wang.
Stick
10/29/2012-7:27pm at 7:27 pm (UTC -4)
I hear they are both represented by Long Dong silver too.
Trs86
10/29/2012-7:20pm at 7:20 pm (UTC -4)
That is correct Stick, saying signz Dickey long term is no different then saying Traid Wright. You have to have willing parties. If you trade Wright why the hell would Dickey want to come back? Wright on the other hand just wants a well thought out plan and a crap load of money. Trade Dickey first and then you can decide on Wright.
Stick
10/29/2012-7:27pm at 7:27 pm (UTC -4)
yeah, wright would likely come back without Dickey but not confident it would go the other way.
of course, I want them to trade them both, make a flurry of other moves to balance out the roster, and come into next year with a wildly different look to the team. Just because it sounds sucky to have the same damned team the next 2 years other than a few minor parts shuffled around.
kingman 26
10/29/2012-8:10pm at 8:10 pm (UTC -4)
Traid Wright, sign Dickey for 3 years and surprise MLB with your pitching.
Trs86
10/29/2012-8:16pm at 8:16 pm (UTC -4)
How do you plan on signing Dickey when he said he and Wright were a package deal and he wants to win now? That’s just common sense, at this point what we have to go on is it is unlikely Dickey would sign if they trade Wright.
kingman 26
10/29/2012-8:22pm at 8:22 pm (UTC -4)
Look Eric, I want to give you love, but you are at MMO when Prismo and I take the time to create new TRDMB posts.
Trs86
10/29/2012-8:25pm at 8:25 pm (UTC -4)
Kingman, I haven’t been on either. It’s basketball season.
Also, as I said there is no reason to insult other blogs and we have emails to call each other out. Your comments on the other blog will be deleted. Sorry but we have readers from that blog that come here including authors and owners. No need for that to come from one of our authors as well.
Stick
10/29/2012-8:35pm at 8:35 pm (UTC -4)
wait, which of the many chest rockwells is this?
TRS86
10/29/2012-8:35pm at 8:35 pm (UTC -4)
Kingman if you would like we will continue this discussion by email.
TRS86
10/29/2012-8:36pm at 8:36 pm (UTC -4)
Lets just drop it guys.
kingman 26
10/29/2012-8:38pm at 8:38 pm (UTC -4)
Did you put this in the trash?
Eric I try hard to co-exist.
TRS86
10/29/2012-8:38pm at 8:38 pm (UTC -4)
Kingman, what part of continue this by email are you not getting?
I have no desire to address this in front of the readers.
kingman 26
10/29/2012-8:39pm at 8:39 pm (UTC -4)
Only 2 Chest Rockwells. Boogie Nights and Metsblog.
kingman 26
10/29/2012-8:40pm at 8:40 pm (UTC -4)
Chief, do you read our 4-year+ loyalists’ responses to my posts?
TRS86
10/29/2012-8:44pm at 8:44 pm (UTC -4)
I believe it’s 3.5 years and I have been here every second of it and read almost every comment made during that time, do you have a point?
Prismo
10/30/2012-1:06pm at 1:06 pm (UTC -4)
I think there’s something we can all agree on – I don’t deserve any credit for writing new posts. LOL
kingman 26
10/30/2012-5:04pm at 5:04 pm (UTC -4)
Prismo, I strongly disagree.
And PS—I most definitely did not insult or say a bad word about anyone.
Peace.
SaltyGary
10/31/2012-9:08am at 9:08 am (UTC -4)
He doesn’t get it Kong. Jerz and I relayed the same message multiple times during the summer. It maybe spawns a post but then it’s off to the other site again.
TX
10/29/2012-7:34pm at 7:34 pm (UTC -4)
I sure hope they get this Wright/Dickey situation sorted quickly. I’m not sure I can go on a whole month saying sign Wright & trade Dickey. Too many Blow the Whole Dang Thing Up party members to battle against.
Stick
10/29/2012-7:59pm at 7:59 pm (UTC -4)
that we agree on. I can live with anything (well, talk myself into anything!) as long as they get if over with quickly.
darknova306
10/29/2012-8:24pm at 8:24 pm (UTC -4)
It’s the Mets, so whatever they do this offseason they’ll probably be screwed for a long time. And we’ll go about rationalizing our silly beliefs that they can contend and wind up watching another several years of disgusting mediocrity.
TRS86
10/29/2012-8:29pm at 8:29 pm (UTC -4)
Lol, yup bout sums it up.
Q-Rod
10/29/2012-10:43pm at 10:43 pm (UTC -4)
Nothing much new spent on the pen. It’s the one area of the team where they can use the kids, which I actually like (until it goes to sh!t). I’d like to see the Mets invest the money in one good player, though that player (Gordon?) will also cost something serious in trade. They can run Spin, Niewenhuis, Duda, Baxter and Bay out there in the other two OF spots. Not terrible, especially if Spin gets a clue and taps into his talent. Maybe Duda and Niewenhuis also get it together.
Stick
10/29/2012-11:10pm at 11:10 pm (UTC -4)
we think alike. pen will be cheap and fluid. the IF will be the same. 1 new catcher, and 1 new OF.
the OF IMO is the place where they make a “big” acquisition for a starting guy. the other 2 spots, mix/match.
Catcher I suspect will be a shopvac level guy to fill in for 1 year. SP, a different 5th guy to replace Young.
that assumes Wright and DIckey are re-up’d. If they instead get traded, expect more changes!
so I guess, ,a starting lineup; based on my “the FO does jack diddle” premise:
Ike/Murphy/Tejada/Wright/Thole IF
Duda/platoon LF
Kirk? CF
New guy, RF
platoon guy will be like Hairston. But probably not him. And not Bay, he gets released.
The rest of the bench will be a RH CF to share with Kirk, and filler.
BU C will be a platoon type. Maybe shopvac.
Pen, lot of cheap guys. Parnell/edgin/carson/Franky/Heffner + 2 more.
SP: Johan/Gee/Harvey/Dickey/Neise.
there you go, your 2013 mets!
TRS86
10/30/2012-6:01am at 6:01 am (UTC -4)
Yup, they need to Omar this one and get the most expensive OF they can afford, regardless of Wright or Dickey. I still think it would be shortsighted not to try to get a guy like BJ Upton with a deal that pays him little the first year and double the next.
Stickguy
10/30/2012-9:06am at 9:06 am (UTC -4)
BJ would be a bigger move than I expect, but he would work. Trading for Gomez too. Or quite likely, a less “big name” deal for a guy that can still actually play (via trade)
TX
10/30/2012-9:15am at 9:15 am (UTC -4)
Unless they get crazy creative (ie bay for Wells, patent pending) or trading away Johan (eating 1/2 the salary or something) there really doesn’t seem to be a way to add a big or medium named anything to this team. Even TRS’s idea on a heavily backloaded contract for BJ is very difficult to achieve, considering the BP has no closer and will be comprised of half rookie types, they still need a catcher and the OF is on par with the badlands…
Stickguy
10/30/2012-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
funny how most posters get that 1 guy in their brain that they become obsessed about (either bringing in or getting rid of). And usually someone that in the end, will probably not make a damned bit of difference!
TX
10/30/2012-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
While I think you are snarking us with that Omar quip, I think we need to not confuse signing a big or bigger named guy to solve all the problems. Omarian would be to go out and sign 2OFs, a C and Closer and then have no draft picks, crazy high salary and most likely not much of depth on the bench for when one of the new additions break down. Signing a BJ type would not particularly break the bank and would fill a need and more likely than not cost nothing draft pick wise. While not cheap, per se, it is a move that fills a need and doesn’t hamstring the team down the road. (i know, i sense Kong already typing BUT THAT IS WHAT EXTENDING WRIGHT WILL DOOOOOO!!!!).
Stickguy
10/30/2012-10:04am at 10:04 am (UTC -4)
that’s why they should trade Wright.
And Dickey.
kingman 26
10/30/2012-5:11pm at 5:11 pm (UTC -4)
Well, while I most definitely see both very reasonable sides on the RA situation, there are not two equally reasonable sides on Wright.
There just are not.
If this deal is done–and every day that goes by makes me more optimistic that it won’t be–the Mets are comically blasting themselves once again.
Pay Wright for what he did from 2005–2008? Ridiculous.
A massive deal STARTING at age 31? Insane.
If you are going to project payrolls well above 100 mil in a couple of years? Maybe. But that is not going to happen with present ownership.
I can understand those who argue that RA is much older, coming off his best season, and especially if he wins the Cy, his value almost definitely will never be higher.
But the Wright situation just is not the same. Signing him is holding on to the past, and dreaming that all of a sudden he will again be the 2005–2008 Wright. That is unlikely now, and almost a virtual certainly to not be the case in 2–4 years.
TRAED RIGHT!
Q-Rod
10/30/2012-5:15pm at 5:15 pm (UTC -4)
Plus if the Mets add a nice OF then they can maybe follow up with a smaller move to net someone like Bourjos. I’d love for the Mets to support the strong pitching staff with much better defense.
TX
10/30/2012-5:31pm at 5:31 pm (UTC -4)
Agree to disagree, I guess.
kingman 26
10/30/2012-7:37pm at 7:37 pm (UTC -4)
Fair enough TX and as you know I am very open-minded and respect you tremendously—can you give me even one example of a deal like this, starting at age 31, that turned out well?
TX
10/30/2012-7:58pm at 7:58 pm (UTC -4)
Roger Clemens.
Stick
10/30/2012-9:09pm at 9:09 pm (UTC -4)
how about well past that, at age 38?
Bonds re-signed with the Giants for a five-year, $90 million contract in January 2002
Hey, tx could go with a Roider, so it must be OK, right?
Mike Piazza, age 31: 7 years/$91M (1999-2005) (NY Mets) Actually, this one really did work out pretty good, since he only missed 1/2 a season once, and was productive even at the end (not the same level of course, but still good for a catcher)
kingman 26
10/30/2012-10:16pm at 10:16 pm (UTC -4)
Clemens never signed anything like a 6 year deal like this, he was a steroid cheat, and an all-time great.
Bonds was a first ballot HOFer before roids and was the Jordan/Gretzky of baseball after roids.
Wright is nowhere–NOWHERE–close to the level of each of these two, never has been, and most definitely never will be.
Piazza? Decent answer. The first 3-4 years of his deal he was very good to great. Go back and check 2003–2005.
And while he was mediocre defensively and no leader, in his prime Piazza was also a huge step ahead of anything Wright has ever been.
Nice tries, but those three are first ballot HOFers. Wright is not close to that level. Not close.
TX
10/30/2012-10:56pm at 10:56 pm (UTC -4)
My attempt at humor. I guess my only comparable would be Santana? Or maybe Beltran. And yeah the last year or two suck, but I’d still do the Santana and Beltran contracts again in a second.
kingman 26
10/31/2012-9:46am at 9:46 am (UTC -4)
Oops, missed the humor! Sorry!
Johan and Beltran were both younger—Johan 29 and Beltran 28. Wright will be 31, and unlike Johan or Beltran, clearly well past his best years.
Johan was 29 and one of the game’s very best pitchers when his deal began.
Beltran was 28 and coming off an excellent season and a historic postseason.
Wright does not come close—in any way—to matching any of that.
Sorry TX!
And I would do the Beltran deal again in a second and I would NEVER do the Santana deal again. Johan has received $45 million the last two years for 21 starts, a 6-9 record, and a tainted no-hitter. An unreal, criminal waste of resources.
TX
10/31/2012-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
Yes, I know. The odds don’t project out to be a safe bet. Just a bet I’d like to make.
Any way we can get a fresh post? Even a blank one? Like a “the hurricane has blown thru, nothing to really report, so as the Zep says, go on and Ramble On…”
kingman 26
10/31/2012-10:38am at 10:38 am (UTC -4)
You asked for it, you got it!
Nothing to see here; move on.
Stickguy
10/31/2012-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
I would throw something out there, but I am not sure I even have rights anymore, and if I do, I can’t figure out how to get “behind the curtain” on this version of the site to do it!
I suggest an actual author take this and put it out there:
PREDICT THE ACTION!
now that the hot stove has officially been lit (never mind the premature stovalation from Miami), what will the Mets be doing this year? GO big? Go home? The FO goes to Aruba and drinks Mai Tais all winter?
Only caveat is, you need to work within the generally accepted $100million cap, and about $10mill to spend (assuming current contracts).
Play it like Oscar predictions: what SHOULD they do and what WILL they do?
My take:
SHOULD: Trade Dickey and Wright for primarily ML ready or damned close talent, Keep Ike and Neise, and shuffle the other spare parts as needed to balance the roster. Sign a few filler part FAs (plenty of money available) as stop gaps to help compete in 2013. Cut Bay. And really focus on being back the the playoff hunt in 2014+
WILL: Sandy wimps out, overpays for Wright and Dickey, then can do absolutely nothing else this off season. Bay stays. The team looks exactly the same in 2013, and very little changes for 2014. I call this the “if you liked 2012, you will love 2013! plan).
Stickguy
10/30/2012-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
on a side note, I hope SRT is OK up along the shore. Have not seen a post this AM from her, so I worry!
hopefully just power out but no damage.
TX
10/30/2012-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
Batten down them hatches, SRT and keep the swimmies inflated!
darknova306
10/30/2012-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, the shore got completely slammed. Hoping all is well down there for SRT and anyone else in the area.
TX
10/30/2012-6:26pm at 6:26 pm (UTC -4)
Per MLBTR:
The Mets have formally picked up their contract options for David Wright and R.A. Dickey, sources told Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter).
So much for a 6 year deal starting in 2013 year…
darknova306
10/30/2012-6:38pm at 6:38 pm (UTC -4)
Don’t worry, the Mets will give him 7 years starting when he’s 31, thus helping to catapult them back to the Omar Albatross days much more quickly than we could have hoped. Long live the Wilpons!
kingman 26
10/30/2012-10:17pm at 10:17 pm (UTC -4)
Worse than the Omar years. Omar had a full wallet to buy more every year.
Alderson has an empty piggy bank with “Madoff” written on it.
Long live 4th place!
Stickguy
10/30/2012-7:47pm at 7:47 pm (UTC -4)
all semantics. all that matters is ultimately how long and how much.
they could also change the terms of 2013 if desired.
Personally, I want them traded.
Prismo
10/31/2012-9:04am at 9:04 am (UTC -4)
After Wright didn’t win the GG despite having an UZR around 9 higher than the winner Headley (usually I’m not a big fan of defensive metrics and I know UZR is only supposed to be used for 2+ season periods of time, but when the gap is THAT huge…)…
Does anyone doubt that Dickey will NOT win the Cy Young award?
Prismo
10/31/2012-9:06am at 9:06 am (UTC -4)
Although to be fair, Trout not winning one was probably more ludicrous. The guy makes circus catch after circus catch. If his fielding % or errors aren’t up to par, it’s probably because he’s running all over the outfield to get balls!
TX
10/31/2012-9:33am at 9:33 am (UTC -4)
I read (if short term memory is working correctly) that Wright was like 0.002 or 0.003 off the major league lead in fielding percentage. He should have won. Though it does help in contract negotiations! ha.
kingman 26
10/31/2012-9:49am at 9:49 am (UTC -4)
I do think RA will win, and Gold Gloves are often utterly bogus. Palmeiro won once while playing 28 games in the field. Shawn Green once won one.
Did Wright really deserve his in 2007 and 2008? It’s a popularity contest and offense often comes into play too.
And UZR is often a joke, as Bay’s UZR was in Boston.
All of the newfound stats create a wonderful toolbox for helping to judge players, but they on occasion can be ridiculous.
And Wright’s defense did not tail off nearly as much as his offense, but it was not as good in the second half this year.
TRS86
10/31/2012-10:30am at 10:30 am (UTC -4)
As you said the creators of UZR even say it takes 3 years worth of information to be even regarded by them as useful.
However, what I would like to bring up is do we really expect coaches and players to run to the computer and pull up fielding %, UZR, errors, range factor, etc before casting a vote?
They see these guys about 18 times most and then SC highlights, why would we expect anything other than a popularity contest?
At work if you have one of those phony awards for best salesman or hardest worker… do you run to the computer to look at their sales record or whatever other stat you can find or do you vote for the guy you like, know or heard a big story about?
Prismo
10/31/2012-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
Yeah I freakin’ do expect them to look up these things. These awards may have become meaningless in their merit to most, but they still affect things like contracts and Hall of Fame merit. Whether or not we think they should affect those things is irrelevant.
TRS86
10/31/2012-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
Like I said Prismo, it’s just not gonna happen. Here we vote for teacher of the year all the time which includes bonuses as well as things that favor their evaluation process. However, do you think teachers rush to find out their scores on state test? Or do you think they would be more likely to vote for the guy across the hallway or based on what they know instead?
Prismo
10/31/2012-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
Just because that’s how it’s done doesn’t mean it’s right.
TRS86
10/31/2012-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
I guess I agree Prismo. But perhaps the problem isn’t with the voting but the emphasis placed on the award? If we back up and realize what it is and who votes on it, to me it would be hard to get too upset about it.