Over the past 10 seasons the average MLB player salary has risen by 4.39% per season. This number is always changing depending on the economic climate (since 1990 salary inflation averages 9.46% per season, but in the past 5 years it’s at 3.18% per year and last year’s rise alone was 4.10%). However, it’s safe to say salaries tomorrow will almost always be worth less than salaries today. We can use this logic to help justify a long-term deal for David Wright (or any other player, for that matter).
Let’s use that 4.39% number, and pretend that over the next 8 seasons the average MLB salary and payroll rises by 4.39% per year. Now for the big assumption – we have to give David Wright his extension. The $15MM is locked up for 2013, and let’s assume he gets an $18MM/yr, 7-year extension ($126MM total extension). To keep things simple, Wright gets paid 15 million next season, and 18 million each season after that through 2020.
Using the present value economics formula, we can calculate what each year’s salary would be worth today:
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
| $ 14.4 | $ 16.5 | $ 15.8 | $ 15.2 | $ 14.5 | $ 13.9 | $ 13.3 | $ 12.8 |
Every year once the extension starts, the value goes down because the average salary of players rises. So making $18MM in 2020 doesn’t mean as much when the new top dogs are getting $30MM/yr salaries (just an example, no math there).
BOTTOM LINE: Add all those up and divide by the 8 year total deal, and we’re looking at an average salary of $14.5MM for 8 years of David Wright. You have to admit, that sounds way better than the $17.6MM/yr he’d be getting without using the present value formula.
(Side notes: I messed around with how much he would make per season, because in reality it probably wouldn’t be 18/yr every year. So if it starts with $15MM in 2014 and goes up to $25.5MM in 2020, the present value is $14.4MM/yr for the total 8 years – not a huge difference. In another attempt, I changed the inflation to 3% per season for the skeptical folk, and the average present value salary per year became $15.1MM for the total 8 years).
63 comments
Ceetar
11/1/2012-4:35pm at 4:35 pm (UTC -4)
Give him whatever he wants and go from there.
Stickguy
11/1/2012-4:45pm at 4:45 pm (UTC -4)
“I’m David’s agent, and I support this message”
kingman 26
11/1/2012-7:43pm at 7:43 pm (UTC -4)
Are you serious?
I guess idiocy never has an offseason.
darknova306
11/1/2012-9:32pm at 9:32 pm (UTC -4)
Ah, someone misses the Omar days. That’s cute.
Stickguy
11/1/2012-4:44pm at 4:44 pm (UTC -4)
impressive. you really should run for congress. I put this analysis right up there with “we were going to raise the budget 4%, but only raised it 3%, so in reality we lowered it 1%”.
reality is, they will still be paying him 18, even if your math says it is 13, at the end. The only way the impact is really lower is if they increase the overall payroll to account for the inflation.
Now, I guess you could argue that by the end, he will be “cheap”. But, that is also a reason to take a shorter deal, then go back onto the market again, so you can sign another deal at the new, inflated rates!
my angle? It is not really about the money killing them 5 years from now. It is the more immediate future, and needing to bring in more talent. And worry that his tailing off performance 5 years from now could be killing them!
Prismo
11/1/2012-5:39pm at 5:39 pm (UTC -4)
The reality is that the economics and math stick. This isn’t fiction or spin.
That said, you are correct that if the 2020 Mets payroll is still $100MM this won’t matter at all. Of course, the Mets would also probably have one of the lower payrolls in the league.
Also, if you’d rather have the prospects than Wright,I can accept that argument. Don’t discount present value though.
Stickguy
11/1/2012-4:46pm at 4:46 pm (UTC -4)
there actually is one good reason to root for the Mets to sign Wright.
The recap post from Kingman will be mind blowingly epic, and may run a good 25,000 words.
TX
11/1/2012-5:24pm at 5:24 pm (UTC -4)
My first thoughts exactly.
kingman 26
11/1/2012-7:44pm at 7:44 pm (UTC -4)
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!
Actually, the post if they trade Dickey will be the one you will all be waiting for.
darknova306
11/1/2012-9:36pm at 9:36 pm (UTC -4)
That one’s gonna be amazing. I have popcorn waiting to be cooked just for when that happens.
Q-Rod
11/1/2012-7:12pm at 7:12 pm (UTC -4)
It feels like a foregone conclusion that the Mets will resign Wright.
Stick
11/1/2012-7:33pm at 7:33 pm (UTC -4)
I would guess it will happen. Cementing the fact that the FO has no intention of actually working to make real change to the team and they are perfectly content with repeating 2012 over and over as long as the owners don’t have to sell.
Prismo
11/1/2012-7:40pm at 7:40 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t think it’s foregone at all.
Honestly, basically locking Wright up for 8 years is kind of nuts for a 30 year old. I’m sure Sandy is thinking long and hard about that one, and I’m sure Wright’s asking for AT LEAST 18 per year. If not over 20.
darknova306
11/1/2012-9:39pm at 9:39 pm (UTC -4)
I’ve had the unsettling feeling all along that Wright will be signed and Dickey will be traded. Whatever happens, it’ll wind up being awful long term, cause this team is a shitshow with a mentality that overwhelmingly accepts losing and mediocrity. And that’s what re-signing Wright will continue to deliver to this awful franchise.
Mr North Jersey
11/2/2012-1:58am at 1:58 am (UTC -4)
Just got power back earlier this evening since Monday and wanted to just say I hope everyone is well. Watching news footage and all I can say is “My God”.
Thoughts & prayers to everyone.
Trs86
11/2/2012-6:00am at 6:00 am (UTC -4)
Glad you are OK!
Prismo
11/2/2012-9:12am at 9:12 am (UTC -4)
So I take it your home is alright? We’re still waiting to hear back from 4d and maybe one other?
Stickguy
11/2/2012-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
4D is in a really hard hit area. Not sure how close to the water she lived though. Hopefully a bit more inland so it is more power related than water for her.
It is never a good sign when Nightline does their disaster special report from your town.
SaltyGary
11/2/2012-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
She used to live right on the coast but I believe she is 30 miles inland as of a couple years ago.
Prismo
11/2/2012-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
Thank god. At least that means her home is probably alright.
I think by next weekend everyone is supposed to have their power back, so hopefully we hear from her by then.
SaltyGary
11/2/2012-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
It’s pretty terrifying. Even though I live in NH I own a Condo in a building that is right on the water in Bridgeport CT. Luckily they just rebuilt the sea wall a couple years ago so it was fine but the surrounding area is pretty wrecked. I used to live there and was there during “Gloria” and I was shitting my pants all day watching trees fall all around me. We didn’t have school or power for 7 days. In NH you would think we are protected but 30 miles west of me VT is still trying to come back from all the flooding from “Irene”. There were trees uprooted and dangling 25 feet above ground level on a bridge column.
I haven’t been commenting much lately but been strolling the Mets blogs and they are all eerily quiet. One of our biggest nemesis on MMO “Bayonne Mets Fan” lives on this tiny ass strip right above Staten Island and there is no way anything is left over there. As much as we wished horrible things to happen to each other I’ve been thinking about him most because of his location and all I really want is the guy to post some horrible message to someone just so I know he is OK. .
Ceetar
11/2/2012-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, beyond the possibility a tree fell on her house, which is possible in all storms, it’s likely she’s just out of power and gas like the rest of us.
SaltyGary
11/2/2012-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
Awesome to see you back on the radar my friend, we’ve been worried about you. All the best to you and your family.
darknova306
11/2/2012-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
Glad to hear you’re doing well, NJ!
kingman 26
11/2/2012-5:17pm at 5:17 pm (UTC -4)
Amen to that!
Prismo
11/2/2012-10:38am at 10:38 am (UTC -4)
So what’s the max deal you guys would offer Wright?
Puma says he’s asking for a 7/125 extension, though I never believe beat writers.
I’m thinking like 6/110 maybe? or 7/115.
TRS86
11/2/2012-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
It really depends on if that 7th year is including the current option or if it is in addition. The original report hat it including the option year which would make it almost exactly what you propose.
Prismo
11/2/2012-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
Oh I thought it was a 7 year deal starting *after* this season.
Stickguy
11/2/2012-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
I want him traded so we can actually see a new team at some point. Looking at the 2012 version for the next 5 years is going to get tiring.
but, if he has to be signed, I really would not want to see more than 5 years total (including 2013) and I know that won’t get it done.
so reluctantly, 5 year extension, for 5/90 (making it 6/106 total), then 2 option years that give the team some protection so they can claim it is really 8/ 140 or some such.
and if he is still hung up on wanting to see the direction of the team, even though I hate them, give him an out clause after 2015.
Prismo
11/2/2012-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
Why do we need to trade David Wright to see a new team?
The Red Sox are rebuilding and they kept some of their players. I don’t see why a team needs to get rid of EVERY valuable veteran on their team to rebuild. Where did this notion come from?
We already have a new team. Half our roster is young as sh*t and we’ll have like $30-40MM to spend next offseason even if we do keep Wright and Dickey.
TRS86
11/2/2012-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
I agree, it can be done either way.
Stickguy
11/2/2012-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
they have no talent to add to the team. Unless you have guys pushing up from the minors, where is it coming from? The well is dry for years to come (not counting mediocre filler pieces, everyone has those!)
changing the BU catcher and 4th OF each year is not exactly major changes.
and again, you think that money gets spent? On what? the one decent FA that gets $25 ill he won’t earn? 2-3 older guys like AJ, hoping they don’t crap out?
or of course you can trade for studs with market rate contracts. If you have the extra tasty prospects to trade.
put it all together and IMO, sign him and Dickey, and it will be largely the same team for years to come,
TRS86
11/2/2012-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
It could be but then again perhaps the arrival of Wheeler and continued development of Niese and Harvey along with guys like Davis, etc there is hope regardless.
Stickguy
11/2/2012-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
OK, I will put you on the Mai tai plan bandwagon.
that is what I call Sandy’s gang plan. Sit on the beach in Aruba all winter drinking and hope that in a couple years talent magically appears out of nowhere, and the team becomes good.
Prismo
11/2/2012-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
Heck, why ever sign a FA again then? If they’re all going to fail miserably. Why do any teams sign free agents?
Just because we got unlucky with Bay doesn’t mean every 10+MM free agent deal is going to be a huge bust. I’m also 99% sure that Sandy won’t be signing anyone to a 25/yr deal next offseason. I think we’ll be looking at ~2 $8-12MM/yr deals (1-3 years each) and then filling the roster with better talent than we can afford this year.
TRS86
11/2/2012-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
Nope, I don’t think it’s that clear cut. Personally if I could trade Dickey for an impact position player I would.
There are names to trade though and this FO should be able to find guys to play and be productive in the OF through trade.
Trade guys like Duda, V-Spin, Mejia, Familia, Flores, and a host of others to bring in spots that you need. Most of that could and should be done regardless of the Wright situation.
TX
11/2/2012-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
See, I don’t see it that way at all. Yes, they don’t have many prospects that are close to the top, but I also don’t think they are so far away from getting better. I’ve harped on this a million times, it seems, but if you turn Dickey into a solid positional player and one other prospect, you will find yourself about 2-3 FAs away from decent team.
Now, those 2-3 FAs do not need to be Hamilton or Bourne types. Depending on what Dickey netted you (for giggles I’ll say a C and P prospect) you are only really looking at getting a better OF or 2. You can look for a Willingham type on the FA market, Add another SP (maybe not a catch like Greinke, but a decent SP), and at that point, they are close enough to justify trading a Tapia and/or a Familia for that last piece to the puzzle. 2014 could really start to show a marked turn around, all the while keeping Wright. It would require a Dickey trade to start, and very likely
And I know, it sounds all rosey and cheery, but I can’t sit here and say this team will never be good, oh whoa is me, it’s 2019 before they’ll win 80 games again, etc. etc. sniffle, sniffle, complain, groan, cry, sniffle, hold me please…
TRS86
11/2/2012-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
We are of very like mind TX.
TX
11/2/2012-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
my sentence got clipped, not sure why.
It would require a Dickey trade to start, and very likely some trades of the Familia/Mejia/Tapia and possibly Murph as well, as Flores could slot into the 2B spot for sure.
Stickguy
11/2/2012-12:58pm at 12:58 pm (UTC -4)
I am assuming that if they go all-in on Wright, they are signing (overpaying?) Dickey too, to try and sell the remaining fans on “we aren’t going out of business or rebuilding”
so Tx, I don’t see the missing pieces coming from that source.
Real, what will that poo poo platter bring back? Premium talent? or someone else s spare parts that happen to play a different position?
I don’t see them signing 2 guys next off season at 10mill+, giving them 4 guys up there, eating up 50mill+. But, that seems to be the going rate to get a pagan/BJ upton type as a FA these days, given how thin the talent pool is.
so, they will have to trade to get someone good at a market rate deal (Say, Justin Upton if you like him)
so I think that brings us right back to the same basic team, hoping like hell Wheeler comes up to be Lincecum and Harvey does not stumble, Dickey and Wright don’t slow down, and Ike becomes a real hitter. Because all you are adding is some filler parts, and hoping to get lucky (like on the next willingham).
unless you really want them to go 3/40 on Pagan or someone at that level?
TX
11/2/2012-1:04pm at 1:04 pm (UTC -4)
Stick, That’s what I am saying. In order to bring back talent, Dickey would need to be one domino to fall.
Also, I don’t see them trading Flores unless it is a flip of a highly rated similar type prospect at the C or OF position or traded for a true Star (Upton type).
And Murph didn’t project to be a 2B, so I’m not so sure Flores can’t slot in there.
TRS86
11/2/2012-2:09pm at 2:09 pm (UTC -4)
It really depends stick.
1B we are set.
2B we have Murphy and other options that are fine for 2B
SS we are set
3B if you keep Wright you are set
The starting rotation is fine with or without Dickey and the bullpen is hit or miss anyway.
That leaves Catcher and OF. You bring in two OF and then let guys like Kirk, DD, Duda, V-Spat compete for the other spot and for catcher you package Flores, Mejia/Harvey and a low level pitcher. How far off really IS that team from being competitive?
Thus lets say you trade Dickey for a good OF and then you sign one using his extra 5M in addition to what you have. You end up with something like
Trumbo and a FA CF with the other guys competing for the last spot.
Stickguy
11/2/2012-3:16pm at 3:16 pm (UTC -4)
that would be angling for the A’s/Orioles option. IOW, hope everything possible breaks right, and you compete one year. Vs. trying to actually follow Sandy’s avowed vision, of having a sustained playoff caliber team for many years in a row.
though at this point, a filler bunch that actually stayed in the race until the end would be a vast improvement!
Oh, and I am not as sold on SS or 2B as you seem to be. Including not seeing Tejada as a championship caliber team piece. More like the weak link they carry because you can’t have a start at every spot. But not someone that is going to be an integral piece, or a spot you don’t look to upgrade.
Prismo
11/2/2012-3:25pm at 3:25 pm (UTC -4)
Why hate Tejada? He was pretty much the definition of a league-average starting SS last season and he’s only 23 years old. I wish we could say that about our outfielders and catchers!
Oh, and by the way the average age of SS’s last season with at least 400 plate appearances was 28.8. Ours is 23 and plays as well as half of them.
TRS86
11/2/2012-11:33am at 11:33 am (UTC -4)
Stick honestly a 5 year deal and a 7 year deal aren’t that much different. Most likely in years 6 and 7 the Mets would have either recovered and Wright would have been a part of the recovery or they would have been abysmal and 2 more years aren’t changing that.
Stickguy
11/2/2012-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
well, if they are abysmal though his deal (5 or 7) you probably finally get the wish o =f new owners.
again, if they had prospects building up at the top of the minors, and plenty of money to spend, of course keep DW as a nice piece of the puzzle. But they have neither.
TRS86
11/2/2012-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
Well the question becomes what they could get or where guys like Flores can play. The talent system isn’t barren like some make it out to be. There is talent there. Unfortunately it isn’t OF> That is why I still think trading Dickey might be best. However, for Wright I think the offense is so bad it may take years and your return in trade isn’t likely to replace his production.
Not only that if you trade Wright and Dickey you will have to severely overpay any potential FA and most likely those FA wouldn’t perform at the same level of the guy you traded.
So again, there is risk and reward in both directions.
Prismo
11/2/2012-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
Nimmoooooooo
TRS86
11/2/2012-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
From what we are reading a lot of people are high on Flores. If you re-sign Wright then you basically have no need for him, so trade him with others for an OF. Then trade for a guy like Gomez. There OF rebuilt and team is competitive again with tons of money coming off the books the following year.
Stickguy
11/2/2012-12:51pm at 12:51 pm (UTC -4)
if Wright is signed, you have to figure they are trading Flores. Unless they plan to trade Ike because they can’t afford him, and slide Flores over there.
I really wanted him to do enough to stick at 2B. that would be ideal for the team.
TRS86
11/2/2012-12:54pm at 12:54 pm (UTC -4)
I just keep reading that 2B isn’t that good of an option for him either nor is the OF. Really what is the kid? LOL. It looks like it’s 3B or trade.
Stickguy
11/2/2012-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
oh, quick question: is the main campus for NC state in Greensboro?
TRS86
11/2/2012-11:38am at 11:38 am (UTC -4)
Raleigh. State capital. In the research triangle
Duke: Durham
UNC: Chapel Hill
NCSU: Raleigh
All with in 15 minutes of each other.
Stickguy
11/2/2012-12:49pm at 12:49 pm (UTC -4)
thanks. It sometimes gets confusing when they have multiple campuses.
we might take a run down there next week, if not in the spring. If I can just convince my daughter she wants to go there!
TRS86
11/2/2012-12:54pm at 12:54 pm (UTC -4)
What is she wanting to major in?
Stickguy
11/2/2012-12:59pm at 12:59 pm (UTC -4)
well, that is the other problem. she has no real idea.
not to offend you, but we have only eliminated history. She hates history!
maybe something in the science end of things. Possibly psychology.
kingman 26
11/2/2012-1:13pm at 1:13 pm (UTC -4)
She hates history?
Ouch!
SaltyGary
11/2/2012-1:19pm at 1:19 pm (UTC -4)
What worked for me Stick (because I was too high to figure it out) is I went in as a undeclared, cleared through most of my electives and then mid-soph year I had to declare and I chose “Information Systems”. I think it is easier then declaring, realizing you hate it and having to take on some extra credits if you switch. Doing the electives I got a taste of a lot of things and it helps me take some off my list.
SaltyGary
11/2/2012-1:23pm at 1:23 pm (UTC -4)
For me history was purely based on the teacher. I loved American History but I took one college class and all the ass made us do was read Federalist Papers. They were the worst and it was obviously what the guy used at porn at home. One of my favorite classes was 20th art that I took for my art elective. I never learned more about WW2 Italy and fascism than in that class.
TRS86
11/2/2012-2:03pm at 2:03 pm (UTC -4)
Hmm, sounds more like UVA type material but that would set you back a pretty penny.
Stickguy
11/2/2012-3:12pm at 3:12 pm (UTC -4)
I love UVA. A couple of my friends went to grad school there. The big trick is getting in (not so easy when you are out of state)
trs86
11/2/2012-9:53pm at 9:53 pm (UTC -4)
True, but man what a campus.
Stickguy
11/2/2012-4:57pm at 4:57 pm (UTC -4)
Hey, turns out the FO is not completely shut down for the winter. They must have left Ricco to answer the phones and make minor moves.
Just saw that Nickeas was taken off the 40 man roster, and shockingly, no one wanted him so he took a MiL assignment!