Robert Allen Dickey won the 2012 NL Cy Young award in a landslide, winning 27 of 32 first place votes. While Dickey may have been the favorite, the margin of victory was indeed a surprise. Dickey had a year that was outstanding by any measure, but when considering his journey to this particular mountaintop, it is indeed one of the more remarkable stories in baseball in recent years.
Dickey attended the University of Tennessee, and was an Academic All-American as well as a star pitcher. When his major league career did not progress as hoped, he began to work to transition his unique forkball into a knuckler. This took years, but after being picked up by Omar Minaya before the 2010 season, in one of Minaya’s best and most cost-effective moves, Dickey began to finally show the ability to be a serious major league starter. Once he was promoted after an excellent start in Buffalo, he turned in a fine season for the Mets. His 2011 overall stats were very similar, but some bad luck–and poor support–led him to an 8-13 record. 2012 was to be his breakout season.
From the beginning, Dickey showed increasing mastery of his unique knuckler, which most say he throws harder than previous knuckleball pitchers. Aside from one off day in Atlanta, Dickey did not allow more than 3 earned runs in another of his first 14 starts, which included an incredible 2 consecutive 1-hitters, both complete games, with a total of 2 BB and 25Ks. Like the rest of the team, Dickey’s second half was not quite as good as his first half, but he was still very good, and did not suffer from the precipitous decline of offensive leader David Wright or the team as a whole.
He finished 20-6, with a 2.73 ERA, and an excellent 1.053 WHIP, and led the NL in complete games (5), shutouts (3), starts (33), innings pitched (233.2), and strikeouts (230).
A Cy Young-caliber season anytime one is not competing with, say, a 1968 Bob Gibson, a 1978 Ron Guidry, or a 1985 Doc Gooden.
Dickey gave a downtrodden, 4th place-entrenched Met team with a shrunken budget and an annual addiction to 2nd half collapses their best individual season in years, and yesterday’s announcement gave them their finest moment since perhaps the 2006 team’s achievements.
So what now?
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Dickey is, by all accounts, a fine person as well as an excellent pitcher. A family man, a religious man, a charitable man, a successful author–as close to a combination of Renaissance Man and Working Class Hero as can probably be found in American pro sports today. Over the next few years, due to a combination of financial issues as well as the team’s best young players being pitchers, the starting rotation is going to consist of a group of pitchers all over a decade younger than Dickey. Hopefully, by the end of 2013, the rotation will be Dickey/Harvey/Niese/Wheeler/Gee. This group has the potential to be something very special, with its mix of styles and strengths, and who could be a better mentor for this group than Dickey?
Yes, Dickey just turned 38, and there is a lot of mileage on his arm; no doubt. However, many–if not almost all–knuckleball pitchers last longer and have more innings in their arms than conventional pitchers. Yes, some suggest that due to the higher-than-normal velocity with which Dickey throws his knuckler, that he is a special case and may not have that longevity. But this is simply a guess; as he is the first to do this, how can anyone know how long he will continue to be very effective? And let’s face it, he’s not throwing 96 mph knucklers.
Forgetting the team’s finances, and all of its holes around the roster, it seems as though the financial commitment Dickey would probably require is not a huge one. All sources which have weighed in have suggested that something in the realm of 3 years and $30-something million should get it done. If the team is truly considering 6 or 7 years and roughly $115-120 million for Wright, how could a deal like this for Dickey be considered a bad risk?
Yes, Dickey’s value is of course at a high point right now, and his only being currently signed for one year and a relatively paltry $5 million increases that value.
But isn’t a pitcher like this worth enough to keep and to take a bit of a financial risk on?
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The point here is that while this writer strongly feels that Wright does not provide either a good risk to perform up to the capabilities that would be expected for the type of deal he is apparently seeking, nor does he seem to provide much in the way of leadership or intangibles, Dickey seems to be a much better bet to continue to play at a high level (albeit maybe not as high as 2012) and he definitely offers more off of the field than Wright does. Dickey is looked up to by seemingly everyone in baseball, for his achievements in the game, his struggle to get to where he is, and the exemplary way in which he conducts himself off of the field.
Sure, age is a factor, but when all things are considered, when it comes to the degree of how much a player should be paid (or overpaid) for what he has already achieved and for the intangibles he provides (in terms of leadership as well as the rare positive feelings for Met fans which come from the Cy Young), Dickey has earned an extension from the Mets.
He also has said how much he loves the area, and wants to be here. How many players with true talent WANT to be Mets right now? His charitable works and his budding career as an author are ideally suited for the New York City area, which gives him a wonderful platform for his endeavors. Maybe Dickey really is as good as he seems–maybe he really does appreciate the organization which gave him the chance to succeed and maybe he will offer the elusive “hometown discount.”
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There surely are two excellent sides to this debate, but the feeling here is very strong that the team must re-sign Dickey, if it can be done for no more than 3 years, and not much more than $10 million per year.
He has put together a very good 3-year period, he is a knuckleballer, all indications are that he takes excellent care of himself, players look up to him, and he even fields his position quite well, handles the bat decently, and has been willing to come out of the bullpen on occasion.
He is a very valuable commodity right now, and while that surely makes him very attractive to other teams, the feeling here is that his value is greatest as leader of what can develop into a possibly great starting rotation.
The Mets have a fine man to lead their rotation; one of the few players who has achieved consistently and improved over the last three dismal years. His talent and his attitude would be sorely missed as this team tries to climb out of its Madoff/Wilpon/Minaya hole and crawl back to the realm of the respectable.
Robert Allen Dickey has been the best Met over the last three years, has proved that he can succeed in New York, has shown the world that not every accomplished athlete is self-centered and one-dimensional, he is a leader and a wonderful role model, and he deserves to be paid well to be a Met for another three years beyond 2013.
Let’s hope the team puts aside many recent precedents and does the right thing.
32 comments
Stickguy
11/15/2012-12:19pm at 12:19 pm (UTC -4)
doesn’t he owe the Mets for saving his career off the scrap heap?
Also, overlooked is the fact that he has suffered serious injuries 2 straight years. He just seems to have a high pain tolerance (or is willing to take a lot of shots, as he did last year every start). So he is not some picture of perfect health! And there is always the risk that after they sign the cash in deal, the desire to play through injuries is no longer as strong.
TRS86
11/15/2012-12:27pm at 12:27 pm (UTC -4)
Also, lets not forget that he was MUCH better this year than last year. The strikeout rate hasn’t always been there and it was completely all about control and movement this year. However, even RA says it’s all about feel, isn’t there a chance that he could just as quickly lose that feel as keep it?
Stickguy
11/15/2012-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
and you know that I agree with you about Wright. I just think they should trade them both. The gaping chasm that is the breathtaking lack of position player talent needs to be filled somehow.
though at this point, I expect you will get 1/2 your wish, since I think they both get signed. And no one else that is any good, so as I like to say, if you liked the 2012 team, you are going to love seeing them again in 2013!
And forget about big additions in 2014. That would be the raises to RA and DW kicking in.
srt
11/15/2012-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
‘But isn’t a pitcher like this worth enough to keep and to take a bit of a financial risk on?’
My vote is yes.
Trading away both Wright and Dickey right now and the Mets will have no identity – no Met brand left. Yes, I know it shouldn’t be all about these types of things but dang….did you just see what the Marlins did? Beginning of last season you thought that team might finally have some identity and long term fans to bring along with it. We quickly learned Loria could care less about anything but the almighty dollar.
I’m hoping the Wilpons don’t have such a callous view of the team they supposedly love.
Have to keep DIckey, IMO.
I read he’d be willing to take a home town discount – he just doesn’t want to be insulted by the offer.
Make it happen. I’d give him 3 years – just not sure about the price.
Regarding Wright…I really think that’s a done deal and they’re going to extend him. Think talks of a trade are just that, talk.
Stickguy
11/15/2012-12:46pm at 12:46 pm (UTC -4)
what brand or identity do they have at this point?
and it is worse to think that they are going to make huge decisions, with long term ramifications to the possibility of having a winning, competitive team in the near future, based on PR, image or appeasing the vocal minority. IOW< pandering.
TRS86
11/15/2012-1:06pm at 1:06 pm (UTC -4)
SRT looking at both sides, if the Mets re-sign Dickey AND Wright, how do they improve from a 4th place team considering revenue isn’t likely to go up and neither is payroll.
Prismo
11/15/2012-1:28pm at 1:28 pm (UTC -4)
Player development, not sure you’ve heard of it.
We might not have any high level OF prospects (although I wouldn’t be shocked if Kirk ended up as an average CF), but we do have high level pitching, and somewhat in excess. I don’t think it’s out of the question to trade AA/AAA players in positions we feel are strong to another team for AA/AAA players for positions we need and very suddenly have a guy who can come up early this season with a shot to contribute.
Also, I really don’t understand your take on free agency. First you say adding $20MM to payroll does nothing. Then you say, the Mets can’t be better than a 4th place team because payroll/revenue won’t increase. Which is it, Mr. President?
Stickguy
11/15/2012-1:40pm at 1:40 pm (UTC -4)
except Sandy and the boys don’t believe in trading, and refuse to part with any of their precious prospects. might put the “complete by 2016″ plan at risk! Besides, they would have to put down their Mai tais to pick up the phone, and that ain’t happening.
I wonder if JP off in Boston is working a 2nd job, since he obviously has a ton of free time?
and adding that much to payroll sure as hell does something. Might not be enough right now, but it can do a lot of good. And not just FA, but trading for a guy with a real salary.
srt
11/15/2012-8:23pm at 8:23 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe I’m looking through rose colored glasses at the moment but I don’t think we’re as bad off as some do.
Don’t think we’re competing in 2013 but I’ll be curious to see what happens in the off season as we head in 2014.
And since we’re not likely competing next season – although anything is possible with the xtra WC – I wish they would have just eaten Bay’s salary all in one fell swoop this year.
Prospects are a crap shoot. If we trade Wright this off season we open a hole at 3rd. Flores isn’t ready and who knows what he’ll do up in the MLs.
If they wind up not extending and trading Wright, I’ll understand the mindset but doesn’t mean I have to like it.
TX
11/15/2012-2:22pm at 2:22 pm (UTC -4)
3 ways.
1 – prudent FA signings
2 – the kids develop (looking at you Flores and the Pummling Polak)
3 – increase the pay roll to take on salary through trades, IE, packing Familia, Mejia, Pill, Tapia, whomever to get someone in return. Willingham? Gomez? Upton-type? Who knows…
Prismo
11/15/2012-1:31pm at 1:31 pm (UTC -4)
I think the minimum that gets this done is something around 3/40. But Dickey’s camp might really have 4 years on their minds. Nice piece Kingman.
TX
11/15/2012-2:27pm at 2:27 pm (UTC -4)
Solid article Kong.
I am still in the other boat on Keeping Wright/Trading Dickey, but if he stays, I’ll be content as well. He is an awesome pitcher and player. Would love it if keeping him wasn’t such a debate, so basically the Mets would have no issues in re-upping with him. unfotunately, the Mets landscape is not like that. As pitching is the Mets strength, you have to trade from strength to address weakness. He’s the best suited to be traded, considering his value and his age/long term help to the club.
If the salary can be increased, better players with higher salaries can be acquired for prospects, then they will compete sooner rather than later. But I’m not certain we’ll see that increase this year or even next. At least the next year will have some extra flexibility to play with.
Stickguy
11/15/2012-2:35pm at 2:35 pm (UTC -4)
I certainly would love to have dickey around for a few more years. Assuming they could figure otu a way to put a complete team around him. I am just not sure they can.
And FWIW (or is that FWICG?), the folks that hang out at MB side with Tex.
question is, who is more important to the 2013 season, DW or RA?
Wright is leading, 81-19%.
TX
11/15/2012-2:39pm at 2:39 pm (UTC -4)
See, I think Dickey was more important this year, but I don’t see him replicating this for 4+ more years. Wright i think can still produce for another 4+ years. I’m sure 5-6 or 7 won’t be anything to write home about (sorry for the pun). But, that’s just how these deals work. There is not one deal that has happened like this that you don’t know going into it that the last year is not going to be pretty.
Stickguy
11/15/2012-2:45pm at 2:45 pm (UTC -4)
the only way Wright works out is if it is not crazy long (with no team outs), and they never are able to increase payroll.
But, if some of the young guys blossom (Ike, and the SPs), and they can come up with at least 1 more real bat, and the team improves enough to appear competitive, and payroll can increase to 125 or so, then just maybe he can be part of something good and sustained.
I just don’t know where the offense talent is coming from in the next 2-3 years. Certainly not the farm!
srt
11/15/2012-8:26pm at 8:26 pm (UTC -4)
‘I just don’t know where the offense talent is coming from in the next 2-3 years. Certainly not the farm!’
This unfortunately is a good point. Only one of interest IMO right now is Flores.
I’d package some prospects for a bat.
Prismo
11/15/2012-2:55pm at 2:55 pm (UTC -4)
While Dickey is the better player (or, at least had a better 2012), there is very valid reasoning to saying Wright means more to the 2013 team than Dickey.
What are the odds of our rotation being good without Dickey? Still somewhat decent, we have depth and some young studs ready to start 30+ games.
What are the odds of our lineup being good without Wright? I’m scared, mommy hold me.
greggofboken
11/15/2012-3:19pm at 3:19 pm (UTC -4)
David Wright is, whether we’re talking the future or this past year. (Wright’s WAR 6.7 this past year, Dickey: 5.6). For all Dickey’s attributes, he steps onto the field ony 22% of the time that Wright does. He’ll always be at a disadvantage in terms of overall worth. This says nothing of his projected shelf-life vs. Wright’s. It’s why you’re hearing rumblings of “Ollie money” at $12M per year for Dickey and why you’re hearing rumbings of $20M for Wright. (No argument from me that he’s not worth that much….but he’s certainly worth more than $12M)
Side me with those who would extend Wright and trade Dickey.
kingman 26
11/15/2012-3:37pm at 3:37 pm (UTC -4)
Wright’s WAR was:
2.9 in 2009
2.5 in 2010
1.9 in 2011
6.7 in 2012–and 2012′s was skewed by an amazing dWAR and the oWAR was largely based on half of the season.
And this is a player’s record that justifies 8 more years of commitment?
It is unreal how many people support this.
Wright’s WAR the last 3 years: 11.1
Dickey’s WAR the last 3 years: 12.1
And we should give Wright 7/120-whatever but not give Dickey 3/30-whatever.
Maybe I need a baseball lobotomy.
greggofboken
11/15/2012-4:15pm at 4:15 pm (UTC -4)
If you’re making allowances for things that skew WAR, how come no such allowance for the injury in 2011 and the beaning/park effect in ’09?
It isn’t that I don’t think Dickey’s not worth 3/30 or even 3/36. I believe he would be. It’s that I recognize we have a dearth of talent and dealing him deals from relative strength and could get us some viable prospects. Wright comes from our current position of weakness.
And, I don’t think Wright is worth 8. I’d draw the line at anything beyond 6 on top of the extension year.
None of these things are absolutes. As much as I’d be in favor of moving Dickey, if he’s really willing to re-up for a two-year deal, I’d do it in a heartbeat and shop some others instead.
kingman 26
11/15/2012-4:28pm at 4:28 pm (UTC -4)
Fair enough, and very logical responses.
I guess, for me, the park and injury factors figure very much into my overall thinking. I really think Wright has just been the 2005–2008 level star for three months of the last four seasons.
And while I totally understand the idea of trading from strength, I also see the logic in keeping one’s only strength as strong as possible.
Again, I know I am in the minority, but I just think that Dickey/Harvey/Niese/Wheeler/Gee can possibly be so good, that they won’t need a lot of stars behind them to win–just a good, solid fundamental team, with Ike and Tejada as two fine pieces of that, and getting the possible better return from trading Wright might help more in the overall picture than keeping Wright, weakening the rotation strength, and possibly getting less in a trade for Dickey than Wright might bring.
But, again, you make very good points and I appreciate the flexible, open-minded nature of your attitude.
kingman 26
11/15/2012-3:17pm at 3:17 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks to everyone for reading and commenting.
I guess–and I am aware that I am apparently in the minority–that it absolutely boggles my mind and utterly mystifies me that some of you want to sign Wright to a deal that (if media reports are even close to being accurate on) could be somewhere in the vicinity of 7 years and more than $120 million–and which would begin in 2014 when he is 31.
I do not get it.
Regardless of any twisting of any numbers, Wright was not anywhere remotely close to that level of player in 2011 or after the break in 2012.
He was absolutely great in the first half last year, but that is the only 3-month period since 2008 when he has played at that level—and he did not come close to that level in the 2nd half.
Many folks cite the issue of his being pitched around/having no protection. What would be different in, say, the next 2 years? Is his power going to return in the projected lineup? And remember, he had Ike with his resurgence hitting behind him in the 2nd half last year, when he could not hit at all and had 10 HR in 74 G. He has averaged 18.5 HR the last four years, including 29 in 2010–which will be 4 years ago when the new deal begins. He averaged 29 HR from 2005–2008. His WAR averaged 5.8 from 2005–2008, and 3.5 from 2009-2012.
How can these numbers be examined, and lead to a conclusion that he should be paid a massive amount of money over TWO MORE four year periods, after the decline over the last two four year periods?
I respect the minds here more than any others I encounter in the Met blogosphere, but I just cannot understand how some of you can really believe–after seeing what he has done the last four years and the results of so many deals like this–that a contract with the numbers being bandied about can possibly be a positive for this team.
greggofboken
11/15/2012-4:55pm at 4:55 pm (UTC -4)
Good, intelligent, back and forth is much appreciated. Thanks for the provocative discussion.
kingman 26
11/15/2012-5:01pm at 5:01 pm (UTC -4)
You are very welcome and thank YOU for being here–this is what we aspire to specialize in!
darknova306
11/15/2012-3:51pm at 3:51 pm (UTC -4)
The only situation in which I’d want to see Dickey signed instead of traded is if his 3-4 years would be with a team that’s in the middle of a window of contention. The Mets can’t even see that window right now, let alone get it opened. The team needs an immense infusion of talent, and trading Dickey and Wright can get that infusion jump started.
Unfortunately, we WILL see the 2012 team return in 2013, and the team will definitely be terrible for longer than people want to believe. It’s frightening to think that the franchise may still not have hit rock bottom, and they may wind up prolonging that bottoming out by extending these guys. Oy.
srt
11/15/2012-8:29pm at 8:29 pm (UTC -4)
I won’t be worrying about rock bottom for 2013 as long as the Marlins are still in our division.
SaltyGary
11/15/2012-6:05pm at 6:05 pm (UTC -4)
Finally I get to read this, I was too busy at work and just scanned the comments.
Another fine piece my friend, my only disagreement (besides on the side of trading him) is your statement about him having a lot of mileage on his arm. At 38 and 10 years in the league he officially has only thrown 1000 pitches. I am sure while he was going through development and minors there are plenty more unaccounted for but if you think of other pitchers at his age, mileage or lack there of is just as much as a positive as the fact that he is a knuckle-baller and doesn’t throw as hard. Also he is missing a tendon in his arm so that is one less tendon to tear
This is the dilemma for me. Any other Mets era, you get the contract done, no question. This limited operation budget forces the team to make crappy decisions and one of which is having to get better through development and trades that don’t effect payroll. So in that aspect that is why I can’t get past trading him. At 5m I imagine he can bring something nice back. With Wright there is the ambassador to the team crap that we discussed ad-nauseum plus the fact that for the team currently 3rd base will be harder to replace than another starter. Also Wright can hang in there for 2 more years and still be plenty effective as opposed to DIckey who could start to regress . Either way it just sucks and we shouldn’t even be having these discussions.
srt
11/15/2012-8:31pm at 8:31 pm (UTC -4)
‘ Either way it just sucks and we shouldn’t even be having these discussions.’
Except we’re all Met fans and should probably be used to this franchise doing things ass-backwards.
darknova306
11/15/2012-9:02pm at 9:02 pm (UTC -4)
The fact we have to have these discussions is a good thing to me. It means the franchise is being forced back to the essential basics of fiscal responsibility (whether they wanted to or not). It forces them to take a long hard look at talent and value it appropriately. If this didn’t have to happen, we’d still be in the Omar days of “we’re just one player away even though the talent is really thin on this team and we have no farm system”.
Trs86
11/15/2012-9:17pm at 9:17 pm (UTC -4)
Bingo.
SaltyGary
11/16/2012-7:23am at 7:23 am (UTC -4)
While I agree I don’t want Omarism back I think keeping these 2 players are different from trowing money at Ollie or Bay.
srt
11/16/2012-8:40am at 8:40 am (UTC -4)
Agree 100%.
It’s obvious the Wilpons are not baseball savvy people.
They hired Omar when Doubleday sold out and believed in his plan to get the Mets to post season. Heck, so did most of us. As hindsight is 20/20 it’s now easier to see where Omar got off track.
The Wilpons failing was not replacing Omar after the 2007 season. He asked for an extension in Dec that year and the WIlpons denied it. Yet mid Sep ’08, they gave him a 4 year extension. ‘Rewarded’ was the actual term used.
Not sure what the Wilpons saw or heard from Omar at that time to warrant that extension. If they had went in a different direction then, it’s quite possible the last 3 years would have been vastly different. I have to skip over the 2009 season, as it was the ‘year of the injuries’. However, the fact that we didn’t have much in the minors to compensate for some of those injuries is as much on Omar as anyone.