Background: David Allen Wright was born on December 20, 1982 in Norfolk, Virginia, and was raised in nearby Chesapeake. He grew up a Met fan partly due to the Mets then having their AAA team in the area. He was an all-state player, among the very best in the state, and was drafted by the Mets with the second of their 2001 first round picks (the 38th choice) which came from the Rockies as compensation for losing free agent Mike Hampton (they used the first pick, number 18, on Aaron Heilman.)
Wright progressed steadily in the minors with two good years at a young age in A and A+ ball, rocketing to being rated Baseball America’s number 21 prospect before 2004. After putting up eye-popping numbers in 60 games at AA Binghamton, the then-awful Mets promoted him to the bigs after just 31 games at AAA Norfolk. Despite only having 91 games above A ball and being just 21, Wright had a very respectable MLB debut season in 69 games, with 17 2B, 14 HR, and a .293/.332/.525 line.
In 2005, he instantly showed that he was destined to be a star, and his 2006—2008 seasons established him as one of the game’s brightest young players, making the All-Star team all three years and finishing in the top 9 in MVP voting each year, topping it off with Silver Slugger and Gold Glove awards in 2007 and 2008.
The 2009 move to Citi Field dramatically affected Wright’s power, although his BA and OBP remained high, at .324/.414 when he was beaned by Matt Cain on August 15. He did return 17 days later, but ended the season in a downward spiral, with just 10 HR and a by-far career high 140 K. 2010 saw the power return, as Wright finished with 29 HR and 103 RBI, but his BA and OBP were significantly down, and he again hit a new career high with 160 K. Clearly, this was not the same player as was present from 2005—2008.
In 2011, Wright fought injuries and the continued pressure of being the leader of a bad team, and finished with his worst season by far in the majors, with a line of .254/.345/.427. The hope was that after nursing the injuries and working hard in the off-season, Wright would return reinvigorated for 2012, and he did. While not hitting HR as in the past, Wright was hitting everything in the first half, with authority and to all fields, and at the break was hitting .351 with a .441 OBP and .563 SLG. Immediately after the break, the numbers began what would be a consistent second half swoon, and Wright’s latter part of 2012 was eerily similar in all ways to 2011, and he finished at .306/.391/.492.
The Contract, Then and Now: During the magical 2006 season, Omar Minaya, in one of his less-appreciated fine moves, locked Wright up for 6 years and about $55 million, with a $16 mil option for 2013, which the Mets have exercised. The Mets now are faced with a serious dilemma, as Wright is after what will be his one massive, $100 mil+ deal. Like Jose Reyes in 2011, Wright is a very wealthy young man, but clearly understands the economics of his sport and his value, and will surely demand at the very least about 6-7 years and well over $100 mil, with media numbers often in the vicinity of 7 years and approximately $125-130 milllion.
Wright’s Numbers: There is no doubt that the 2005—2008 Wright was on the path of a perennial All-Star, and possible Hall of Fame consideration. Among the best young players in the game, a fine fielder, on a team which was winning games, and, despite the always-wrong bleating of his vocal minority of detractors, he was indeed a player who could be counted on—while Jose Reyes disappeared down the stretch in 2007 and 2008, the numbers show that Wright was excellent during those months, and was clearly not among the reasons for the late-season failures during those two vexing years.
However, since then, Wright has not been the same player.
Here are some numbers from the last two four-year periods of Wright’s career, the first four at Shea and the last four at Citi:
—–WAR numbers from 2005—2008: 23.1 (5.8 AVG.)
—–WAR numbers from 2009–2012: 14 (3.5 AVG.—this includes the 6.7 number from 2012—from 2009—2011 Wright’s total WAR was 7.3)
—–HRs per year from 2005—2008: 29
—–HRs per year from 2009—2012: 18.5
All of his numbers–G, R, H, 2B, SB, BA, OBP, SLG–have been down (some more significantly than others) in the last four years from what they were in the previous four years.
As the new deal will almost certainly start in 2014 and very likely be for 7 years, the next 8 years must be considered. As Wright will be 30 in December, when one considers the age he will be throughout this new deal, and what the last two four-year periods look like, what can be expected over the next TWO four-year periods?
The Reasons for the Decline and Their Meaning for the Future: Wright clearly has been affected by Citi Field. In addition, from the beaning to the broken bone in his back to 2012’s finger issues, he has had many very real factors which can help explain the drop in production over the last 4 years. In addition, as many point out, Wright was at his best when he had other sluggers around him. His breakout year of 2005 saw Cliff Floyd as his mentor on and off the field, and from 2006—2008 he was surrounded by near-MVP years from Beltran and from the HR bat of Carlos Delgado. This type of support has been absent for the most part since early 2009.
While these are all indeed very, very valid issues, the rub here is that none of them are going to change anytime soon. Citi’s fences were brought in and might be again; but the overall structure and sightlines of the park remain the same. In addition, while Ike is a HR hitter, he is not Beltran or Delgado, and he is the only even remotely feared other bat in this anemic Met lineup. This is almost certainly not going to change in the next year, and Wilmer Flores is about the only power bat even on the horizon for the next 2—3 years within the Met organization.
Finally, perhaps one of Wright’s previous injuries was affecting him during the second half of 2012. Maybe this is part of the reason for the precipitous decline.
Regardless, it is fair to assume that some or all of these factors will remain in play in the near future; perhaps they will have even more meaning as Wright reaches his mid-30s.
Face of the Franchise: Many, many fans love David Wright. At this writer’s annual late-season game, he noted the virtual sea of David Wright jerseys, and the cheers for his every action in the game. Fans love him and the front office knows this. Many, many followers of the team want Wright to retire as a Met, as he is the “Face of the Franchise.” There is indeed a massive emotional attachment to this player, who by all accounts is smart, kind, considerate, religious, and charitable, and while this is very understandable from the heart, the head must often make tough choices.
Clearly, part of the current attachment to Wright comes from his being a homegrown player who was a key part of the 2006 team, and today from his being the last real symbol of when the Mets were very good. But when the team starts winning again, new heroes will emerge, as we may already be seeing in the maturing of Niese and the arrival of Harvey. Clinging on to the past will not help the present or the future.
Wright vs Dickey: Obviously Wright is much younger than Dickey; 8 full years. While some may find it hard to fathom, Dickey has a higher WAR total over the last 3 years, 12.1 to 11.1. Some argue that everyday players are more important than a pitcher who appears every fifth day. The results of many teams—especially the recent pitching-driven Giants’ two title teams—strongly argue for the high value of top-of-the-rotation starters. Lack of starting pitching—and diminished starting pitching—has haunted this team since 2007. Once Johan lost his effectiveness in 2012, the team’s decline rapidly accelerated. Pitchers from Figueroa to Misch to Schwinden to Hefner and beyond have vividly shown the value–and the relative scarcity–of reliable quality starters. Dickey has been utterly reliable, and was one of the very best in the game in 2012. Even if he was simply to put up 2010—2011 numbers over the next 3–4 years, he simply will be a much, much better value to the team at what his re-signing will cost in terms of years and dollars than Wright will.
Conclusion: Wright clearly is still a very good player; excellent on defense, and capable of very serious hot streaks with the bat. He is asset off the field as he clearly is a fine individual whose heart and mind seem to be in the right place. He is tough, he works hard, he plays hurt, and he has become more vocal with his teammates and his manager while becoming an older player and a team leader. He has been a great Met who should eventually have his #5 retired by the team.
But the feeling here is that a contract for 7 years and over $120 million for Wright will be an unmitigated disaster on more than one level. The Minaya era taught us the danger in such long-term deals. Beltran was 28 when his deal started; Santana was 29. Wright will be 31. Beltran and Santana were each clearly in their prime, coming off multiple excellent years.
This simply is not the case with Wright, no matter what his supporters insist. He has played at his 2005—2008 level for precisely 3 months of the last 2 seasons, and has been far, far below this level for the rest of that time.
The feeling here is clearly that Wright should be aggressively shopped. Some folks say that Dickey should be traded, as we have a fine potential starting rotation, and we must “trade from strength.” But creating a huge hole at the top of the rotation with Niese as the only other real sure thing right now will almost certainly subtract more than it will add. Wright’s age would almost surely mean obtaining more for him in a trade.
Trade Wright, for as many top prospects or younger MLB players as you can. Maybe explore AZ’s interest and think about Upton. Maybe explore TOR’s thoughts on a larger package possibly including Lawrie (and d’Arnaud if we include enough?) if they might want to re-unite Wright and Reyes and are really in win-now mode; Wright being signed for just one year would give a team with this mentality optimum flexibility.
Play Murphy at 3B and platoon Turner and Valdespin at 2B in 2013. Hope really hard that Flores is ready to take over 3B in 2014. Then Murphy can be moved back to 2B unless Valdespin really develops or Havens beats the odds and recovers the track he was once on to be the 2B of the future.
Final Thoughts: This writer has been a big fan of David Wright and remains so. If he was still signed for 2-3 years, there would be zero opposition to and much happiness about his remaining a Met. But a contract like this is absolutely the wrong thing for this team, for the wrong player, at the wrong time. Wright’s decline, his age, the team’s financial situation, and the overall record of long-term deals for players beginning at age 31 or thereabouts all argue most vociferously against extending Wright at anything close to the terms being bandied about.
These are not your Uncle Omar Madoff’s Mets; there are not another 1 or 2 big name players coming in with big salaries every year.
Major League Baseball is a massive, billion dollar business, and it is completely understandable that Wright should maximize his value, especially at a time when we are at the cusp of another huge increase of the TV money many teams will be making. He deserves to earn whatever he can, as someone with a skill possessed by such a tiny number of people. But the same realism dictates that the current Mets simply cannot afford a deal with this kind of risk when the team has so many needs and such dramatically reduced spending ability.
Trading David Wright for the best possible package of players is clearly the right move for this team right now.
88 comments
TRS86
11/19/2012-9:07am at 9:07 am (UTC -4)
Whew. I will just say, I am still torn and we don’t know enough yet to make a logical decision.
kingman 26
11/19/2012-9:16am at 9:16 am (UTC -4)
We certainly know how utterly mediocre his offense has been for all but three months of the last two years though, don’t we?
And we know Citi Field will be his home park and he won’t have Beltran and Delgado in the lineup, right?
Really, aside from emotion (and front office off-field business concerns), I am not sure any longer that there is any really good rationale to even consider 7/120+ for Wright beginning at age 31 for this team with these needs and this payroll.
I can absolutely see the utter validity of the other side in the Dickey debate, but not this one.
It is highly debatable whether Wright is worth this type of contract at all, even for a team without holes all over the place and a $150 mil payroll; but for this team right now it is just completely wrong.
TRS86
11/19/2012-9:22am at 9:22 am (UTC -4)
Again, do you know the following?
-What trade packages are being offered?
-What the actual terms of the contract will be?
–Will it be backloaded, will it include signing bonuses, how long will it actually be? Or are you basing all this on rumors?
-What will the Mets budget be in 2014?
-How will they invest the Wright money if traded?
-How will they invest the money gained from Johan and Bay if Wright is retained?
-What type of package is being offered for Dickey? Can the Mets obtain an impact bat for Dickey?
-Can Wilmer Flores actually play 3B well enough to be considered a replacement?
-What will happen to Ike Davis once there is absolutely no one in the lineup around him? Will he just turn into an even worse version of David Wright?
Again, to me until I at least hear the terms of the offer for Wright then it’s impossible for me to know what the right move would be and I will just have to trust that if Sandy actually believed that the Mets would be better off trading Wright then if anyone would trade him it would be him.
TRS86
11/19/2012-9:27am at 9:27 am (UTC -4)
So if you are saying there is a case for not signing Wright to a deal that pays him 7/140 AFTER 2013, yeah I agree.
kingman 26
11/19/2012-9:30am at 9:30 am (UTC -4)
That is absolutely what I am saying, unless we had some guarantee that payroll was going to be at least, say, $130 million beginning in 2014.
While your above questions are of course unanswered and very valid, to me none of them make Wright worth nearly $20 mil a year from age 31-38.
TRS86
11/19/2012-9:56am at 9:56 am (UTC -4)
Like I said, I can’t bash a move that hasn’t been made or formulate an opinion on what they should do with Wright until I at least know the terms of the deal.
Hey batter
11/21/2012-12:52pm at 12:52 pm (UTC -4)
I believe that’s exactly what MNJ is saying, and I agree. The only way you or anyone else is going to know the terms of the deal is after it happens making it a mute point.
Stick
11/19/2012-9:51am at 9:51 am (UTC -4)
I will have to cancel some meetings later today to have time to read through this. Can’t launch into a Knog post without having the proper time to devote!
Can’t wait to get to the part where he realizes that after they unload Wright, the most logical thing to do is rebuild correctly and trade Dickey for the “monster” package too!
Prismo
11/19/2012-9:59am at 9:59 am (UTC -4)
You can’t just come in here and drop a bomb like that and then leave. haha
SaltyGary
11/19/2012-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)
I had to make the same decision on the Dickey piece last week. Luckily today I am procrastinating.
Stick
11/19/2012-10:18am at 10:18 am (UTC -4)
I decided to multi-task on a conference call. They never say anything important on those, right?
SaltyGary
11/19/2012-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
If they do then you just have to say “looks like my phone broke up can you repeat that”.
srt
11/19/2012-10:31am at 10:31 am (UTC -4)
I read through this on my normal Monday morning staff meeting conference call.
Hey, I can multi task with the best of them!
TX
11/19/2012-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)
An infield with Murph at 3B and Turner/Valdy at 2B would turn me into a basketball fan. And I hate basketball.
I get what your point is on the article. I do. I understand that good pitching generally beats good hitting. But this team has nothing other than Wright for offense. Ike is still a wait and see. Tejada is, well, Tejada. Murph is, well, Murph. Both are nice to have but certainly aren’t carrying a lineup. As you mention, there is nothing on the horizon sans Flores, and he’s 2 years away. Signing Wright, who would be the best positional player on the market (or tied with Hamilton), will not cost you a draft pick, solidifies 3B (for which the 3B Market is super-bad) and brings with it all the Fan Rah Rah stuff that does have value to the ballculb. This is right in line with what Sandy wants for the long term stability of the club. Not sacrificing draft picks, hope to put a team together that is good enough to compete (what the definition of ‘compete’ is can certainly be debated…) and build up the minors, slowly but surely.
Even with diminished returns on Wright, I do not see a large contract for Wright hamstringing this entire ballclub. If it does, then the Wilpons will be in the process of selling the ballclub.
Now, all my worthless words aside, if the BJs were to offer Lawrie and Gose or Lawrie and just about anyone, then yeah, I wouldn’t have a major problem with Wright being moved. I just can’t see that happening. You would need immediate impact on the major league level if you were to move Wright. And unless you are planning on using Wright’s salary to take on other salary in a trade (a la acquiring Upton or Willingham), there is practically nothing worth investing in on the Free Agent front this year. Next year, maybe, but this year, no way.
Good article Kong, even though I don’t agree with it.
TRS86
11/19/2012-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
I can play this game:
“An infield with Murph at 3B and Turner/Valdy at 2B would turn me into… an invalid.
Stick
11/19/2012-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
If they do this deal, hopefully they get back at least 1 real talent that can hit the majors now.
and I would just say screw it, and roll Flores out there now. Or by June at the latest.
they would have to come out after the deal and admit that 2013 is officially rebuilding year (duh!) and that they are working on bringing in the new core pieces as they are ready for the majors.
srt
11/19/2012-10:32am at 10:32 am (UTC -4)
Flores hasn’t played a game in AAA yet.
He’d have to be the second coming of Harper or Trout to be slotted into the opening day 3rd base position – IMO.
TRS86
11/19/2012-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
We aren’t even sure if he is a viable defensive candidate at 3B yet.
Stick
11/19/2012-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
so give him 1/2 a year at AAA to prove it (and prevent the clock from starting!).
2013 will be a throw away year anyway, so perfect time to let him learn on the job.
SaltyGary
11/19/2012-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
An infield with Murph at 3B and Turner/Valdy at 2B would turn me into a basketball fan. And I hate basketball.
ROFL
Stick
11/19/2012-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
OK, made it to the end.
As you know, I agree 100% on Wright. Given his age, and 2013 contract status, the theoretical deals being tossed around are nuts.
So if they won’t trade him, it needs to be something team friendlier (and of course, DW is supposed to be all about the team, right?).
given all the factors, he is probably 5/90 right now. Keep in mind, he is NOT a FA, so he should not expect full FA $ without having to prove he can put up monster numbers (and health) in 2013.
so, be creative. Add 5/90 guaranteed. That added to 2013 means 6/106 (still nuts, but not as bad). Add a couple of option years so he can “claim” to have gotten a bigger deal! Defer some each year to help the team.
if he insists on seeing “the plan”, give him an out clause after 2015.
If this is not enough, then trade his ass. And if he thinks he is worthy of 7/140+ beginning in 2014, then dare him to play out 2013 and get that on the open market, from a team that has no stake in his history.
TX
11/19/2012-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
He would certainly get that on the open market. Without a doubt. If Bearded Wonder can get his whopper of a deal from the Nats, Wright would get that deal from 1/2 the teams in the league.
Stick
11/19/2012-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
at 31, you think a team is giving him 7/140, if he doesn’t have a monster year? I don’t think it is that much of a given.
TX
11/19/2012-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
So maybe 6/120. At that point, what’s a couple million between friends. He is getting paid. To the point that the picture above of Wright will be the normal posse that hangs out at his pad. If we don’t want that on this club, I understand that. You want those funds to be allocated to all the 23 yr old super prospects that Wright will be bring back and the 26-27 year old FAs that will just be hitting their prime and will give you full value on the contract…
Stick
11/19/2012-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
well, always the chance that he has another poor, injury plauged season, and the giant contract disappears.
like I say, if you want to shift the risk (IOW buy insurance) there is a cost involved. You can’t expect a FA megadeal when you aren’t even a FA. You have to give the team some consideration
Prismo
11/19/2012-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
This is a difficult one for me, and in the end, like TRS, I need all the facts before making a truly informed decision.
However, I can admit that Kingman brings a sound logic to the table. It’s hard to argue with pretty much anything in this post.
That said, the non-statistician in me says that a sports team in NY should not get rid of a franchise player in his prime. I don’t like how it feels, I don’t like how it sounds, and I definitely don’t like what it says about the jokers running this franchise.
I think I’d rather hold onto Wright, attempt to trade Flores for a high level OF prospect, and continue to call for the sale of the team. Again though, this depends on the type of contract we’re talking about.
SaltyGary
11/19/2012-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
“That said, the non-statistician in me says that a sports team in NY should not get rid of a franchise player in his prime. I don’t like how it feels, I don’t like how it sounds, and I definitely don’t like what it says about the jokers running this franchise.”
You are dead on with this.
Stick
11/19/2012-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
IS it OK to get rid of one that has had is prime, and is quickly exiting it, instead of keeping him for 5-7 years when he is well past it?
Prismo
11/19/2012-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
I don’t think of “prime” in terms of peak statistical numbers, because that varies too much year to year. I think of it in terms of the age range that has that high potential. Wright’s had a very healthy career so far (knock on Ollie’s head), so I think his prime can easily extend to 32 or 33 years old. I mean, who knows. Chipper was still a great piece of a lineup when he was 40.
I know Wright isn’t the player Chipper is, but to assume he’ll be perennially injured or hitting with a .600 OPS when he’s 36 is flawed.
Stick
11/19/2012-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
chipper might be a good comparison health wise.
thru 31, he was an iron man (more so than Wright, who had some significant injuries in the last couple years).
but age 32 he dropped 10%, then he was low 100s for a few more years. he managed to rebound 1t 35 to be an about 125-130ish guy for a few years, then dropped to barely a 1/2 time player. Still hit damned well when he played. He just did not play all that much.
of course, no 2 players are alike, but you have to really consider both a general decline from DW in output, and be prepared to miss blocks of time.
Stick
11/19/2012-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
Oh, the Dickey piece.
I understand Knogs feelings, and if the team was a playoff threat, hell yeah keep him. But most likely they won’t be in the next 3 years, so he would be somewhat of a luxury (or a waste!)
so, trade him to get the talent infusion they need on the field.
and if they trade Wright, then they have to move dickey, unless they somehow bring back 2-3 actual ML players for 2013, and no chance in hell that is happening.
I think that the first year they might be actually be in the hunt (realistically) is 2015, and if that is the case, you are hoping that Dickey at 41 is still an ace, adter paying him for 2 years to be the face of mediocrity.
TRS86
11/19/2012-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
Well if they trade Wright, shouldn’t they also trade Niese and Ike too? I mean your logic is that they won’t be competing for the next 3-4 years and by the time 2017 rolls around Ike and Niese would be 30 and obviously shouldn’t be signing them long-term as at 30 they would be shot.
Stick
11/19/2012-10:26am at 10:26 am (UTC -4)
no, those guys would just be getting into their primes in 2015 when they should be a serious contender, and can be major cogs for 2015-2017.
If they trade DW and RA, I would be looking to try and snag a couple more guys like that if they could.
Dickey is old, and they ar etalking about 3 years including 2013. I love the guy, but the timing is bad, and the potential return too good to pass up.
TRS86
11/19/2012-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
They would be 30 and demanding big money if they are any good Stick. It’s a never ending cycle if you never sign your best players long-term.
TRS86
11/19/2012-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
I mean do you consider Wright to be entering his prime?
Stick
11/19/2012-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
no, I think he has peaked, and dropped back, and it is only a question of what plateau he can stay on, and for how long.
remember, we are talking about starting a monster deal at 31, and yes, I am 100% convinced that by the time that deal starts, he will be well past his prime.
TRS86
11/19/2012-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
Right and when you are expecting to compete Ike and Niese will be right at that same plateau only they weren’t as good as Wright to start with. This is a never ending cycle Stick.
SaltyGary
11/19/2012-10:18am at 10:18 am (UTC -4)
I am really on the fence for Wright. For all the offensive numbers, age and dollars, it does not make sense to keep him but I feel there is a lot more to it than those aspects.
From a financial perspective, I do not trust the team to take the dollars they would be shedding and re-investing into the team. So a team with Wright is better than a team without. His defense cannot be replaced in the near future and having Murphy on the corner easily adds against the teams average of runs allowed. Murphy at third would be a disaster. There are also not a lot of trade options out there for a replacement. From a cost perspective, I don’t think they would be losing anything. He brings in money for the team, and the work he does outside of the team brings local promotional benefits.
As for a reason against it is simple, he will not be the offensive player we have seen in the past unless there is better talent around him. He is a table setter not a cleaner. So why waste the dollars on him? Now if the team actually operated like a team in a top market, we wouldn’t be having these type of discussions.
I feel I go back and forth like the tide on him. Frankly I just want the decision to be made so the team can move forward and I will be fine either way.
TRS86
11/19/2012-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
Man do I agree with all of this. I read an anti Wright post and decide to be proWright and read a pro-Wright and decide to be anti… LOL
“From a financial perspective, I do not trust the team to take the dollars they would be shedding and re-investing into the team.”
This is the biggest one for me.
TX
11/19/2012-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
Honestly, what is there to re-invest in at this point? Hamilton? a 5 year deal for BJ? That 5th year of BJ is going to be worse than the 5th year of Wright.
I feel like I’m tooting Wright’s horn way too much today, and to say I’m 100% against trading him is incorrect. If trading Wright netted you something wonderful and major league ready, then heck yeah, pull that trigger. I just don’t see that happening.
TRS86
11/19/2012-10:31am at 10:31 am (UTC -4)
I have no idea what his return would be. The problem is that FA is more risky than signing your own guys long-term. At least with Wright you know that he can play in NY, with FA you can turn Crawford into… Crawford and Bay into…. Bay.
TX
11/19/2012-10:33am at 10:33 am (UTC -4)
And BINGO was his name. oh.
SaltyGary
11/19/2012-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
Not just on the FA market, the team should normally be in a position to take on a slightly overpaid player or be able to take advantage of a team trying to shed ML ready talent in return for prospects of even Dickey. No they are just handcuffed to scrubs on the FA list and waiting 3 more years before more talent comes up from the minors.
Stick
11/19/2012-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
Oh, my #1 desire is they act quick (I know, the opposite of this dinosaur FO, but still a hope). By the winter meetings, they need to have them signed or be shopping the hell out of them.
and Salty, I look at it this way (and this could just be frustration talking, or pent up boredom). yes, next year, keeping them both probably means the team will be “better”. But, not good.
however, there is a chance that they could actually reload, and have a team to build around to be really good.
so similar to drafting polished but low ceiling college seniors vs. high upside HS players. Do you want to lock in for years of sustained mediocrity with no real upside potential? Or roll the dice on a big play, and be willing to risk boom or bust?
I really thought early in the tenure that this FO team was biding time, and by now they would be rolling dem bones. But sadly, it seems they have no balls at all and are perfectly happy to turtle up, spend all their money on the “faces”, and hit the Tiki bar.
remember, gotta get their early if you want a good seat on Mai Tai Monday!
SaltyGary
11/19/2012-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
All very valid points on why to move them both.
srt
11/19/2012-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
Very well articulated argument for trading Wright.
Issue is, as I see it – it’s all for naught. Because I really do believe they’ll be working out that contract extension for Wright and like it or not, he’ll be here for the next several years.
If by some chance that doesn’t happen, here’s hoping the return we get for him is well worth losing the heir apparent to ‘The Franchise’.
Right now, I’m in the camp of extending Wright.
I don’t believe that contract will be an albatross in the back years. Always a chance it could be of course, but that’s what I’m going with. No way of telling what this team will look like in 5 years, where they’ve been, where they’re going from there.
Either way, I’d really like to see this decide one way or the other by the end of Nov.
Stick
11/19/2012-10:48am at 10:48 am (UTC -4)
it has to end quick. If this drags on into next year and they do nothing all off season, not only should they all be fired, they should be arrested for something.
these contracts are the first dominos holding the entire off season and rebuilding plan (hell, future of the franchise through the end of this decade) hostage, and they need to tip one way of the other very soon.
srt
11/19/2012-10:51am at 10:51 am (UTC -4)
What you said, Stick.
My patience for not joining the ‘Coeur’ on the SA hate band wagon is only going to last so long. If they don’t sign either of them and they don’t get trades done in Dec., it’s going to hamper their ability to plan during this off season for the rest of the holes they have to fill.
TRS86
11/19/2012-11:03am at 11:03 am (UTC -4)
I don’t know, lets think about this.
If they trade them, then they aren’t going to head into FA this year to fill any long term holes because they are officially rebuilding and if they don’t trade them then they aren’t heading into FA either.
So basically, they aren’t heading into FA this year.
srt
11/19/2012-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
I didn’t expect much in FA this year, to be honest.
But if Wright is gone, doesn’t that change the thought process on what they do for 3rd and 2nd going forward?
If they trade Dickey, doesn’t it change the thought process on the rotation?
Gotta know what they’re getting back in return so they can go forward filling out what’s left.
TRS86
11/19/2012-11:13am at 11:13 am (UTC -4)
Not for 2013 really SRT. I mean they might need to sign a backup scrub for 3B to protect Murphy but if they trade Wright then they are truly punting at least 2013 and most likely 2014 so no need to go get a high priced FA.
As for the rotation? Again, not really. They most likely would roll with a McHugh at that 5th spot until Wheeler was ready and look to re-sign guys like Young or Pelfrey which they most likely will do anyway.
Sorry but the thoughts of the Mets actually using Wright and Dickey’s money THIS off-season are far fetched to say the least.
Stick
11/19/2012-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
the longer you wait, the fewer teams there will be in the mix, and slimmer will be the pickings coming back.
For a change, drive the market instead of running after it like the kid that could not find his mothers pocket book, so the ice cream truck is 3 blocks away when he finally runs out the front door.
TRS86
11/19/2012-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)
Oh in terms of trading them, I agree. I was just saying in terms of holding the Mets up from making other moves.
greggofboken
11/19/2012-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
This was an excellent article. Kudos and much obliged. I agree up to a point.
I agree that Wright is not worth the extremes of time/salary being speculated upon (8/$140-$145 when you tack on the $16M extension for next year). As far as I’m concerned, anything that guarantees putting him on the field as a Met at age 37 is asking for trouble — and that — more than the money — is my personal sticking point.
Right now, basebaall reference’s closest comp at his current age is Scott Rolen. His second closest comp is Chipper Jones. And there’s the dilemna. Which of those two road does Wright head down? We just saw what Scott Rolen looks like at age 37, and after coming off a broken back and a fractured finger, who’s to say he escapes Rolen’s fate?
I’d either go 6 (on top of the option year) at $18M per ($108M) or go 7 at $18M only if he rips up next year’s extension. I wouldn’t budge beyond that.
All of the “face of the franchise” “Met for life” talk, I don’t care a fig about. Frankly, that stuff has Jeff Wilpon’s fingerprints all over it. For the most part, I haven’t seen Alderson capitulate to ownership preferences all that much….but when I hear statements like that, I think that’s exactly what’s being done with the length of this.
Prismo’s take on adding option years (make them club options or mutual options) or even dropping the pay level at the end of the deal (something that happens only in my fevered imagination and Neverneverland) sound like strong ideas to me. So does the idea of giving him a buyout option midway through. Very creative.
If the Mets were not as offensively starved and bereft of positional level talent as they are right now, your arguments are strong enough to make the case for just walking away. Because we are, I’m willing to try to get something reasonable done with Wright. But there are limits. And I couldn’t care less if the limits bug the Marketing Dept. Or Jeff Wilpon. Which is easy for me to say….because Jeff Wilpon can’t get me fired. Which is one thing I have on Sandy Alderson. It might be the only thing I have on Sandy Alderson….but I’ll take it.
greggofboken
11/19/2012-11:00am at 11:00 am (UTC -4)
My apologies. It was Stick who posited additing option years and/or a buyout clause.
Prismo
11/19/2012-11:07am at 11:07 am (UTC -4)
I was happy accepting credit for it though…
Stick
11/19/2012-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
happy to share.
Prismo
11/19/2012-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
A gentleman and a scholar.
Mr North Jersey
11/19/2012-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
This thread is too much. LoL
SaltyGary
11/19/2012-11:15am at 11:15 am (UTC -4)
Hey, all of you new guys that have been stopping by from MEesblog, we are glad to have you around. If you have any desire to have a avatar pic, just go to gravatar.com to set one up and it will magically appear here in about ten minutes.
TX
11/19/2012-1:45pm at 1:45 pm (UTC -4)
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/11/19/3650064/new-york-mets-rebuild-david-wright-r-a-dickey
Stick, did you write this article?
srt
11/19/2012-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
LOL.
I have to take exception to a Twins fan writing about what the NY Mets should be doing. Unless he follows both teams, does he really have all the pertinent facts?
‘Either Alderson puts a lineup together that can support the out-of-sight play of these two stars, or he uses them to acquire pieces that aren’t currently in New York’s system. ‘
All I can say to that is, duh……
SaltyGary
11/19/2012-2:16pm at 2:16 pm (UTC -4)
Your a big AA fan SRT, what you you think of their new site? I think it’s way more up to date only drawback I feel it’s harder to find stuff beyond whats new or fan contributions.
TX
11/19/2012-2:27pm at 2:27 pm (UTC -4)
I’ll interject this. The posting system sucks there. not a fan of how it is on the eyeballs.
srt
11/19/2012-3:02pm at 3:02 pm (UTC -4)
It was so much better under the old format.
Real time updating without refreshing – which they still have. But under the old format, you could see as much as 50 or better previous comments. Now you’re lucky if 10 fit on the screen.
At least they kept the ‘z’ functionality. Using that, it will always take you to the latest of the last comments you personally have read – so you don’t need to keep scrolling up and down.
srt
11/19/2012-3:00pm at 3:00 pm (UTC -4)
Couldn’t agree more, Salty.
I have yet to locate the FanShots in any kind of date order – and it’s one of my favorite parts of AA.
I kind of kept my mouth shut though when they asked for feedback as I figured since I’m not big on change, they’d just look at my comment and figure ‘ah…once from the old foggy contingency’ and ignore it anyway. LOL.
I liked the old format much better. It was just more streamlined. Plus…you didn’t have these non Mets stories and especially non baseball stories from other parts of SB nation showing up on the front page of AA. I go there to read about the Mets only. I’m not much interested in any sport but baseball.
Stick
11/19/2012-3:25pm at 3:25 pm (UTC -4)
thought I wrote it? I assume that means it is well crafted, thoughtful, in depth and just darned witty. With just the right amount of sarcasm and snark!
I will have to wander over to AA to check it out. I recently started looking over there once a day. I only look at what is at the home page (that new format IMO sucks rocks), and I have no clue yet how to post (in case I felt like venturing into the comment community).
srt
11/19/2012-3:52pm at 3:52 pm (UTC -4)
Ha!
Lots of AA regulars jumped all over this article. But the difference with those posters is they respond with well thought out arguments, not just ‘you suck’, type comments.
They have this AAOP contest every off season – Amazin Avenue Offseason Plan. Tons of entries on how to structure the team with a certain budget number in place. Some of these trades and signings are very creative. Some are downright funny. Those can all be found under the ‘FanPost’ section of AA.
Stick
11/19/2012-4:07pm at 4:07 pm (UTC -4)
I was wondering what AAOP was. I kept seeing the acronym, but could not figure out what it was. Seemed like a fantasy league, so in a way, I guess it is.
TRS86
11/19/2012-2:35pm at 2:35 pm (UTC -4)
OK I will play this game too:
The case FOR signing Wright.
C Thole
1B Davis
2B V-Spin
SS Tejada
3B Murphy
LF Duda
CF Torres
RF Kirk
Torres, Tejada, Murphy, Davis, Duda, Kirk, V-Spin, Thole
OOOFPHA….
Not that re-resigning Wright does wonders but at least it’s a damn RH bat. LOL. Of course you might get good talent back in trade but what are the chances that talent is MLB ready?
srt
11/19/2012-3:05pm at 3:05 pm (UTC -4)
This is an excellent reason, IMO.
We’re so lefty heavy to begin with. Trading Wright’s RH bat means we’d better be getting 2 RH bats back…..
Prismo
11/19/2012-3:07pm at 3:07 pm (UTC -4)
LOL I thought this was a suggested batting order for a second. I was like, man, TRS is really out of his mind.
kingman 26
11/19/2012-3:21pm at 3:21 pm (UTC -4)
Well, you are assuming an awful lot with the outfield and Turner could play 2B against LHP, and there will be a C who bats righty.
However, that lineup looks extraordinarily scary.
And not to the opposing pitcher.
Stick
11/19/2012-3:30pm at 3:30 pm (UTC -4)
false logic. If they do break out the balls and make some big, bold moves (as trading these 2 would be), there will have to be some more moves to go along with it. Plus of course, whatever you get back.
so IMO it does not mean that you just spread the remaining peanut butter a little thinner to cover. You get some Nutela instead.
Stick
11/19/2012-3:28pm at 3:28 pm (UTC -4)
but that is a 1 year view. You say yourself, maybe they are not quite ML ready? If they aren’t, it has to be keyed around guys that just about are (strong AA, some AAA types) so they should at minimum make their debut with the Mets in 2013.
Quite likely there will be someone back with ML experience already I would guess.
so, yes, if you trade dickey and wright you are punting on 2013. Of course, if you sign them both, you are still punting on 2013, but at least you know what kind of sustained mediocrity to expect!
Prismo
11/19/2012-3:44pm at 3:44 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t think 2013 is totally punted if Wright and Dickey are kept.
We’ve seen much bigger surprises in baseball than a team with our kind of rotation winning 90 games.
Not saying I’m predicting a playoff birth (I am not), but I think it’s always in a realm of possibility when you’ve got Dickey/Santana/Niese/Harvey/Gee/Wheeler.
Stick
11/19/2012-4:04pm at 4:04 pm (UTC -4)
I am firm in my assumption that if they sign these 2, that is it. The team is finished.
hairston will be too rich for our blood. So you will see an OF of Duda/Kirk/baxter, with maybe a Torres mixed in, or some other AAAA lifer that bats RH thrown in.
Thole starting at C of course, with maybe shopvac back.
so, a team that would make the ’73 (if not ’79) club look potent, and pretty much what you were seeing on a daily basis late last year.
and of course, they are already pretty well maxed out, so if you think that lineup + a BP led by Frnaky and a bunch of MiL invites or the Elvins of the world is enough, even if that rotation holds up, then yes, they are primed for 90 wins!
Prismo
11/19/2012-4:14pm at 4:14 pm (UTC -4)
You’re welcome to skip watching this season then.
You make it sound like the Mets are maxed out before signing anyway. We have close to $10MM to spend (above the $.5MM minimum salary for the entire roster) Decent relievers can be had for a couple million typically. And the bullpen is ALWAYS a crapshoot.
If the Mets bullpen was just league average last season they would have given up 50 less runs. FIFTY. I don’t see any reason, with the randomness of relievers, why ours can’t be league average.
And you’re assuming the worst out of all our hitters, it seems! We have some bats, they were just inconsistent last year. Wright, Ike, Tejada, Murph. Those are decent bats in just about any lineup. If (yes, if) Duda can get his head straight we KNOW he has the potential to hit 30+ home runs. Kirk played a pretty league average CF batting-wise for a long stretch last season – who’s to say he can’t do that again? And I honestly don’t know who our right fielder will be. Thole had his worst year offensively – why do you assume he’ll replicate it? Not saying he’ll be good, but any improvement is important.
I know I sound like the Optimistic Mets Fan here, but in reality I probably will predict ~73 wins again this season (that’s what I predicted last season – 1 win off from reality). However, I think we have the *talent* to do much better if a lot of things go the right way.
Prismo
11/19/2012-4:15pm at 4:15 pm (UTC -4)
Before signing *anyone*. I should proofread for typos.
Stick
11/19/2012-4:23pm at 4:23 pm (UTC -4)
oh, it could happen. I just happen to have swung to the other side of the pendulem, since i was the one guaranteeing about 87 wins + a run at the playoffs last year. For all the same “if everything breaks right” reasons you list!
but I don’t see the $ being there. When you start backing everything out of that theoretical $10 mill (hold back for mid-season trades, a buyout or two, etc.) there is not going to be any mid-millions guys coming. so there could be a new RF, but I would be surprised if it was anyone actually known to be good (hell, known by name!)
and I actually prefer they go cheap and young with the pen.
beyond that, who the hell knows.
darknova306
11/19/2012-11:58pm at 11:58 pm (UTC -4)
The chances of the Mets, regardless of signing Dickey and Wright, being good enough to content next year are low enough so it’s not a rationally expected outcome. Miracles can happen, but going into a season expecting one is silly.
wanny
11/19/2012-5:50pm at 5:50 pm (UTC -4)
playing the game this way means that no major leaguers were acquired for wright and that the $15m or whatever he was to earn this season hasn’t been re-invested. not a fair way to play the game.
wanny
11/19/2012-5:54pm at 5:54 pm (UTC -4)
wright to AZ for Pollock and Bauer.
then trade another pitcher for another hitter or two.
i work for free in a baseball capacity.
darknova306
11/20/2012-12:23am at 12:23 am (UTC -4)
Was on the road all day and didn’t get a chance to view this epic tome of rationality. Well done, Kong, and I’m in complete agreement.
This is the wrong time and wrong team for that 6 or 7 year uber deal that Wright will inevitably get. A player with his recent inconsistency, who will be 31 when the uber deal starts, signing a crazy long term deal with a team with the massive financial and talent void the Mets have is just silly.
TX
11/20/2012-12:55am at 12:55 am (UTC -4)
Going to try to brew an all Citra IPA. So excited.
darknova306
11/20/2012-1:12am at 1:12 am (UTC -4)
Totally worth it! Such a great hop.
Connor O'Brien
11/20/2012-9:16pm at 9:16 pm (UTC -4)
C’mon Kingman, you’ve gotta start putting in more effort on these posts
I’d be very wary of giving Wright any more than $115-$120mm
Stick
11/20/2012-9:22pm at 9:22 pm (UTC -4)
once you are up there, just give up and give him the extra year or what not.
None of these guys (Sandy, and at this rate the Wilpons, if there is a God) are going to be around when Wright is a complete shell with a couple years left on the deal, so what do they care?