The Mets have added six players to their 40-man roster, including top prospect Zack Wheeler, in order to protect them from next months Rule 5 Draft. In addition to Wheeler, the Mets also chose to protect pitchers Hansel Robles, Gonzalez Germen, Greg Burke, and Darin Gorski, as well as middle infielder Wilfredo Tovar. Here’s a run down of who these guys are and why the Mets are protecting them:
Zack Wheeler – Wheeler was a no brainer to add. Since he was 19 when the Giants drafted him out of high school he only had four years before he had to be added, which in the long run isn’t a big deal. Wheeler will be making his big league debut in 2013 (if you’re a betting man I’m putting the over/under for his ML debut as the all-star break, although that could move up), and being on the 40-man roster means he’ll be in big-league camp this spring at least up until the first round of cuts, but potentially longer if he pitchers well; although the chances of him making the opening day roster are slim unless there are multiple injuries among the starting five during spring training.
Hansel Robles – I whiffed on recognizing Robles would be rule-5 eligible, but he signed in 2008, so he is eligible. Robles was the Sterling Award winner in Brooklyn this past season after going 6-1 with a 1.11 ERA in 12 starts. Robles allowed just 47 hits and 10 walks in 72.2 innings, striking out 66. Clearly, the numbers are outrageous, as they should be for a 22 year old in the New York Penn League. Robles has a fastball that sits in the low 90’s and at times can get into the mid 90’s, which is probably the biggest reason the Mets want to hold onto him. However, his secondary pitches are very much a work in progress and at 5’11’’ he likely projects as a reliever in the long run. For now he’ll start, and because he’s taking up a spot on the 40, I’d expect the Mets to be rather aggressive with him, likely starting him in St. Lucie, with an eye towards Binghamton later in the season if things go well.
Gonzalez Germen – Germen is a guy I like, but whom I’m a bit surprised to see protected. He had a nice year in 2011, spending the entire year in Savannah, and then made just 5 appearances for St. Lucie in 2012 before being promoted to Binghamton, and actually made one start in AAA before the season ended. Germen has never been towards the top of any prospect lists, but he throws in the low 90’s, which is good enough, and he has one of the better changeups among Mets minor leaguers. That changeup is probably the biggest reason the Mets are looking to keep Germen, as it gives him a chance to become a middle reliever that’s capable of getting both lefties and righties out (you know, the way Ramon Ramirez was supposed to this past year, but failed so miserably at, kind of like that). Unless he really impresses in the spring Germen should be on his way to Las Vegas to start 2013.
Greg Burke – The Mets signed Burke to a minor league deal a little over a week ago. The Mets originally drafted the Camden, NJ native back in 2000, but he chose to go to Duke instead of signing. Burke has plenty of minor league experience, since he’s 30 years old, but he did spend most of the 2009 season in the San Diego bullpen. Last season, Burke reinvented himself as a side-arm pitcher and put up a 1.53 ERA in 64 innings between AA and AAA in the Orioles farm system. He is having a nice winter in Mexico, with a 2.04 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning and just one walk in 17 innings of work. I’m guessing scouts have been impressed with his transition to being a side-arm pitcher and he may have been stolen away from someone in rule 5. As a result, the Mets have protected him and he could become a part of the major league bullpen at some point this season, even if he doesn’t make the opening day roster.
Darin Gorski – Gorski was a pretty each choice to be protected. He was the best pitcher in the Florida State League in 2011, although he was a little more mediocre last year in Binghamton. Gorski’s biggest problem was the long ball, giving up 20 homeruns to AA batters, as he is predominantly a fly-ball pitcher. Gorski’s success in 2011 came as a result of added velocity on his fastball, which is accompanied by one of the best changeups in the Mets system. He’ll need some time in AAA before he’s ready to make a big league appearance, but his debut with the Mets will certainly come at some point in 2013.
Wilfredo Tovar – Tovar was another no brainer to protect, as he’s one of the most gifted defensive shortstops around, and he could certainly be an everyday shortstop in the big leagues right now if all he had to do is play defense. If Tovar can hit enough, he’ll get to the big leagues. He’s shown a good propensity for making contact, which is good because his small 5’10’’ frame doesn’t hold a lot of power in it. Tovar hit .254/.308/.332 in the second half of 2012 at AA, which is a noticeable decrease from the .284/.377/.332 line he had the first half in St. Lucie. Tovar won’t turn 22 until August, so there’s no rush to get him to the big leagues and there’s no guarantee he’ll make his debut in 2013, but his defense is too good to lose and warrants rule 5 protection (I can almost guarantee you he would have been picked if available). If Tovar can hit a little, draw walks, and limit his strikeouts then his defense will carry him to the big league, where he will be a great asset defensively.
With regards to the players that were protected, Wheeler, Gorski, and Tovar are not surprising at all. I was a little surprised to see Germen get protected, but I’m glad that the Mets see potential in him as a major league contributor, because I do as well. Burke being on the list caught me off guard, but after seeing his numbers last year and this winter it makes sense. Robles was a surprise, simply because I looked at the list of players that were at risk for rule 5 from multiple sources and he wasn’t on any of them, but I’ve done the math and he is eligible. That being said, I’m surprised he was added and not Luis Cessa, who also spent last summer in Brooklyn.
As for guys who weren’t added, I’m very surprised that Aderlin Rodriguez was left out. Defensively, he’d be a huge liability for a major league team right now, but I wonder if an American League team might take him in rule 5. I also thought either Francisco Pena or Juan Centeno might be added as well, especially since the Mets are so starved for pitching. To check out how smart (or stupid) I am, feel free to look back at my preview here: http://realdirtymets.com/2012/10/01/sneak-peak-at-rule-5-draft/.
As for the Mets 40-man roster, it currently sits at 39, which means it’s almost full. The Mets will likely non-tender Mike Pelfrey and Andres Torres, which will free up a couple spots, but after that, guys like Zach Lutz and Reese Havens could be in danger of getting removed. The Rule-5 draft, as usual, will take place during the Winter Meetings next month.
22 comments
wanny
11/20/2012-9:24pm at 9:24 pm (UTC -4)
Aderlin may have tools but he’s 20 and didnt hit well in high A. He’s miles away from ready. He’d strike out 200+ times against MLB pitching and would be a waste stashed on a bench with no defensive value and would have his development completely stunted. No one would select him.
Bryan
11/20/2012-9:34pm at 9:34 pm (UTC -4)
What I’m thinking is that an AL team could take him, stash him away on the bench to pinch hit or DH occasionally, and after a full year they could put him back in the minors. It’s not something a contender would do, but a second division club could take the risk b/c they have nothing to lose and the power he has is incredible.
Also, A-Rod did make noticeable strides this past year. You can’t look at the full season stats, but if you look month by month, there was improvement.
wanny
11/20/2012-10:24pm at 10:24 pm (UTC -4)
There is no shortage of toolsy 20 year olds in MiLB. I cant imagine a bad team would want to waste a year of a kid’s development when the kid is far from a sure bet.
Bryan
11/20/2012-10:50pm at 10:50 pm (UTC -4)
I see your point, b/c he would hold a spot on the 40 for at least two years without a chance of being ready, but Aderlin’s power is rare, that’s why I’m a little surprised he’s left unprotected
Stick
11/20/2012-9:33pm at 9:33 pm (UTC -4)
A Rod could also go to a crappy rebuilding team like Houston that has nothing to lose, and can let him learn on the job.
If they lose him, given the lack of upside potential power hitters in the system, it will be a debacle. I know his numbers are not spectacular, but he is young and the power is real.
Centano? Well, a team would never take a lower level catcher and keep him all year. Never happens, right? Beuller? Flores?
Burke is a guy you pick up mo a MiL deal later, not put on the 40 man at the exposure of a real prospect. Even those other couple arms (Robles say) are probably filler at best, and not that hard to replace. Every organization has plenty.
IMO, you protect upside, not projectable mediocrity.
Bryan
11/20/2012-9:37pm at 9:37 pm (UTC -4)
Plus, Centeno isn’t even low level anymore, he spent all of 2012 in AA. I do agree with you on Robles; I think Cessa could be closer to being in an ML bullpen than him.
Stick
11/20/2012-9:43pm at 9:43 pm (UTC -4)
at this point, Centeno could be the best option for the mets, so sure he could get snagged for another team.
That should go over big with the anti-Sandy crowd.
Stick
11/20/2012-11:06pm at 11:06 pm (UTC -4)
actually, now that I think of it, Centeno is probably a much likelier candidate.
darknova306
11/20/2012-10:14pm at 10:14 pm (UTC -4)
They’ll keep “projectable mediocrity” around by returning the 2012 team in 2013.
Stick
11/20/2012-10:21pm at 10:21 pm (UTC -4)
I’m Stick, and I approve of this message.
Mr North Jersey
11/20/2012-10:00pm at 10:00 pm (UTC -4)
Bryan what can you add to this?
“The Rule 5 Draft occurs in three phases, the MLB phase, where eligible players can be selected and placed on the 25-man roster for a $50,000 fee, and the Triple-A and Double-A phases, where players can be selected for a fee if they are not on the protected list, but in this phase, they do not need to go to the 25-man roster.”
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/rule-5-draft/
Aderlin would be eligible for the AA phase correct?
Stick
11/20/2012-10:11pm at 10:11 pm (UTC -4)
I’m not the expert (hell, I did not even stay in a Holiday Inn express last night) but I am pretty sure there are different rules for the MiL portion, and I would bet that a guy in Aderlin’s situation would not be exposed to that. For some reason, 6 years in the minors is sticking in my head.
Bryan
11/20/2012-10:46pm at 10:46 pm (UTC -4)
Stick is right, there are very different rules for the minor league portion. Just like guys on the 40-man ML roster are protected, teams have a reserve list of 38 for AAA and 37 for AA to protect players. Essentially, teams can protect their 75 best minor leaguers from being taken in the minor league portion, regardless of what level they finished last season. I’m not sure if years in the organization play a factor or not, but I’m leaning towards no. Also, if a player is selected in the AAA portion, there is no obligation to play them in AAA that season, same goes for the AA portion. Very few guys taken in the minor league phase even get close to the majors.
Hope that helps without being confusing (it’s hard for rule 5 not to be confusing). And no, Aderlin will not be taken in the minor league phase, he’s definitely on the reserve list of 75, although I’m not sure if those are made public ahead of time.
Mr North Jersey
11/20/2012-11:02pm at 11:02 pm (UTC -4)
So let me see if I follow. Aderlin is exposed to the major league phase of the Rule 5 cause he is not on the 40 man roster so a team can take him in the major league phase but once you get down to the AAA & AA phase if Aderlin is on one of these reserve lists which we don’t know for whatever reason then he can’t be taken in this phase of the Rule 5 draft?
Stick
11/20/2012-11:04pm at 11:04 pm (UTC -4)
yup
Mr North Jersey
11/20/2012-11:06pm at 11:06 pm (UTC -4)
There needs a place where one can go read these freakin rules.
Stick
11/20/2012-11:07pm at 11:07 pm (UTC -4)
every year it seems that people on different sites do it, so I am sure the write-ups are out there.
Bryan
11/21/2012-12:17am at 12:17 am (UTC -4)
Try Wikipedia, or a quick google search, something useful is bound to come up.
srt
11/21/2012-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
My head hurts now…
Something tells me I’d better flag this post as there’s no way I’ll remember these Rule V rules.
Stick
11/20/2012-11:26pm at 11:26 pm (UTC -4)
someone wake up TRS and let him know that his man crush was just DFA’d, so once he clears the Mets can grab him.
Yes, Chone Figgens is about to be available for minimum wage!
SaltyGary
11/21/2012-8:55am at 8:55 am (UTC -4)
As a scrap heap pickup I would be all over this. He plays 3rd CF LF and occasional 2nd. Maybe be a perfect way to for a guy to get one last shot at trying to get another contract for 2014.
SaltyGary
11/21/2012-8:58am at 8:58 am (UTC -4)
He also has a option where if he gets 600 PA it vests for 9m. Not that would ever happen unless he started (which I don’t advocate for him doing) but if he did out of no-where turn it around any team would have him locked in of league min for 2 years. Totally worth a shot.