I’m a picture person.
Sometimes it’s easier for me to visualize something than to comprehend through words or numbers. So I made a graph to show how David Wright has performed at the plate over his career, splitting up each season into individual months. 8 lines for 8 seasons. Red lines are 2009-2012 and blue lines are 2005-2008. Move each line from left to right and you see how Wright’s OPS has gone up and down each full year of his career.
EDIT: Please draw your own conclusions.
70 comments
TX
11/28/2012-1:35pm at 1:35 pm (UTC -4)
I’d say the huge difference in this is the placement of the red lines in Aug & Sept.
Prismo
11/28/2012-1:38pm at 1:38 pm (UTC -4)
I agree. Do you think maybe it’s because it’s harder for Wright to maintain focus/strength/etc through a full season as he ages?
Prismo
11/28/2012-1:39pm at 1:39 pm (UTC -4)
Or maybe it’s just because the Mets stunk more in those years and he had less to play for at the end of the season.
(a bad excuse, but still…)
TX
11/28/2012-1:51pm at 1:51 pm (UTC -4)
Well, I would partly say because of what has been around him, vs. the physical rigors of a season. Granted, he hit a ton in the 1st half this year, yet pretty much had nothing around him. I think it was a factor of age, oddball injuries, having nothing around him, etc. I would expect that section to get better.
When I look at the OPS for the years, it’s at +.900 for the 1st 4 year and 3 .800s and 1 .700 for the next 4. Hmmm… Knog may have a point there.
Maybe it’s my heart, not my head that wants Wright to stick around. Or that absolute glaring need for a RH bat and the stellar D at 3B…
kingman 26
11/28/2012-2:51pm at 2:51 pm (UTC -4)
TX it is not me—it is the facts.
Wright from 2009-2012–aside from the first half of 2012–has not been CLOSE to the player he was from 2005–2008.
In ANY offensive category. Traditional or Saber. Any stat.
It’s not debatable in the real world.
Prismo
11/28/2012-3:09pm at 3:09 pm (UTC -4)
If he was going to be paid like his 2007/2008 self we’d be talking about a $25 million annual contract, not the $18 million one we’re talking about in reality.
kingman 26
11/28/2012-3:25pm at 3:25 pm (UTC -4)
And at least then he might be worth it!
Prismo
11/28/2012-3:30pm at 3:30 pm (UTC -4)
lol fair enough, fair enough
Ceetar
11/28/2012-2:00pm at 2:00 pm (UTC -4)
It looks pretty.
but it means nothing. statistically small sample sizes flung onto a graph. Why not split it by Year->Day of Week?
Prismo
11/28/2012-2:14pm at 2:14 pm (UTC -4)
I apologize that we don’t all sh*t rainbows like the Optimistic Mets Fan.
TX
11/28/2012-2:19pm at 2:19 pm (UTC -4)
In this day and age, it is to defecating refracted light. Get with the times.
SaltyGary
11/28/2012-3:03pm at 3:03 pm (UTC -4)
Ceetar is on youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0D70GSSKmAY
darknova306
11/28/2012-3:21pm at 3:21 pm (UTC -4)
“I apologize that we don’t all sh*t rainbows like the Optimistic Mets Fan”
This comment just made my whole week. Prismo, you’re great! Almost burst out laughing in this coffee shop.
Ceetar
11/28/2012-4:16pm at 4:16 pm (UTC -4)
Not sure what my outlook has to do with small sample sizes and arbitrary end points though.
wanny
11/28/2012-4:35pm at 4:35 pm (UTC -4)
Have to agree with Ceetar on this one (which may be a first). Not sure how a series of arbitrary samples proves a trend.
The reality is that there is no real trend to his season OPSs other than that his most recent totals are lower than his 3 season peak. This could be for a variety of factors including the possibility of a decline, his injuries and his lack of a supporting cast.
srt
11/28/2012-5:49pm at 5:49 pm (UTC -4)
According to the analytical breakdown I just saw them do on MLB in regards to this, they’re putting those 2009-2011 numbers down to the old configuration of Citi, plus the 2011 injury filled season.
Prismo
11/28/2012-7:11pm at 7:11 pm (UTC -4)
Wanny…that was my entire point. That there isn’t much of a trend (sans the last couple months of each season). And you could make up a variety of reasons why that could be.
wanny
11/28/2012-8:46pm at 8:46 pm (UTC -4)
But why look at the monthly numbers rather than the season totals is what I am asking.
darknova306
11/28/2012-8:47pm at 8:47 pm (UTC -4)
” they’re putting those 2009-2011 numbers down to the old configuration of Citi, plus the 2011 injury filled season”
So basically he’s shown an inability to adjust to new environments and has shown injury in recent years. Yup, give him a mega deal…
Stick
11/28/2012-8:54pm at 8:54 pm (UTC -4)
Ba-zing!
SaltyGary
11/28/2012-3:06pm at 3:06 pm (UTC -4)
Ceetar I noticed you started writing for AA, good job man.
Ceetar
11/28/2012-4:53pm at 4:53 pm (UTC -4)
thanks. (Didn’t I write this already? did it eat my comment or am I not seeing it? #blamebeltran)
srt
11/28/2012-5:50pm at 5:50 pm (UTC -4)
Ditto from me.
kingman 26
11/28/2012-2:07pm at 2:07 pm (UTC -4)
“I don’t see a clear indication that Wright has had a major decline in his most recent four years at the plate.”
WAR from 2005–2008: 23.1
WAR from 2009–2012 (INCLUDING the great first half of 2012): 14.0
HR? 116/74
K? 459/510–in 75 LESS games.
OPS+? R? H? SB?
Every stat shows significant decline over the last four years from the previous four years.
Every one.
Except salary.
Prismo
11/28/2012-2:13pm at 2:13 pm (UTC -4)
If you disagree with it, then I know I’ve made a good post.
kingman 26
11/28/2012-2:45pm at 2:45 pm (UTC -4)
Very true; I am very ignorant, rarely back my opinions up with facts, and most of all, my opinions are almost always wrong and universally scorned.
kingman 26
11/28/2012-2:50pm at 2:50 pm (UTC -4)
And PS—Disappointing response and silly premise.
This quote is unsupportable with any factual analysis:
“I don’t see a clear indication that Wright has had a major decline in his most recent four years at the plate.”
Prismo
11/28/2012-3:01pm at 3:01 pm (UTC -4)
It’s only unsupportable to you because you took it completely out of context.
Put into context, the conclusions are based SOLELY on the graph pictured above. Not based on looking up every Wright statistic on baseball-reference and cherry-picking ones that best support your theory. This is Real Dirty Mets, not a Christian bible study seminar. (too far?)
I mean, I agree overall. Obviously Wright was better when he first came up than he is now. But that doesn’t mean he doesn’t still hold great value. And a couple mediocre months at the end of last season certainly doesn’t mean he’s going to stink for the rest of his career. There are mediocre months all over his career – one of the worst of which started off his career-best 2007 season!
kingman 26
11/28/2012-3:29pm at 3:29 pm (UTC -4)
OK, sorry if I took it out of context.
But my statistical analysis of Wright is the diametric opposite of cherry picking. It’s evaluating him based on every offensive stat for all of his career aside from 2004.
He’s had two four year periods–huge sample sizes.
And again, he was MVP-like for half of last year, but aside from that, has not been the same since 2009, and actually has been rather mediocre for all of 2011 and half of 2012.
Prismo, this is not cherry picking nor is it a couple of mediocre months. It’s a massive body of evidence.
I know I am getting repetitive and I am sorry.
And as I told TRS I would be thrilled to be as wrong about this as I was when we first signed RA Dickey. But a review of my posts over the years would show that I am right a lot of the time, and often with numbers to back it up.
And no, for me, the Christian Bible Study Seminar thing was not even CLOSE to being too far.
wanny
11/28/2012-4:39pm at 4:39 pm (UTC -4)
There is a decline with regard to the fact that he had been a 900+ OPS player (for the full season) earlier in his career but has not been in the last 4 years.
While that might be indicative of a decline, it could also reflect his various injuries (which could certainly be considered part and parcel to a decline) and the fact that he had once hit in a lineup with the likes of Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran and Moises Alou and more recently has hit in a lineup with Lucas Duda, Jason Bay and Jeff Francouer.
kingman 26
11/28/2012-4:47pm at 4:47 pm (UTC -4)
Don’t disagree with any of this Wanny; all very true.
But two things: To paraphrase Rick Pitino, Delgado is not walking through the door, Beltran is not walking through the door, and Alou is not walking (or limping in his case) through the door. Wright is on his own for the foreseeable future.
And what’s the excuse for the drop off of the cliff in 2012, when his entire second half was an eerie carbon copy of 2011? Was he injured again? Seriously, that is what worries me the most.
wanny
11/28/2012-5:04pm at 5:04 pm (UTC -4)
Don’t disagree with any of that either.
Prismo
11/28/2012-7:16pm at 7:16 pm (UTC -4)
I fail to comprehend how the solution to “our player sucks because our lineup sucks” is to make our lineup suck even more. This is nonsense.
kingman 26
11/28/2012-8:31pm at 8:31 pm (UTC -4)
Not at all what I am saying Prismo.
My entire point is that this deal is WAY too much for Wright.
The scarce money can be better spent elsewhere.
Stick
11/28/2012-8:52pm at 8:52 pm (UTC -4)
honestly though, I am not so sure that ~18mill in 2014 is going to be that big of a stretch, or money will be that scarce then. Besides, there will be available money, so the real question is, will they find someone better next off season to spend it on than DW?
My real issues are partly the back end (but again, 6 years from now, who knows if the 18mill for whatever he is producing will mean much or be an issue. Or if the wilpons even own the team any more.
but mostly that I think the team needs a bunch of new pieces to build on, and DW could have brought some of them in while also freeing up the cash to trade some MiL for young established talent making some money (an Upton type) if desired
Prismo
11/28/2012-9:01pm at 9:01 pm (UTC -4)
You’re right Stick, the back end will probably hurt. And by no means do I think the Mets should give Wright a blank check. I’ve said many times a deal anywhere close to 7/140 is absurd. If he sticks to his guns in that area, trade him.
Prismo
11/28/2012-2:15pm at 2:15 pm (UTC -4)
Sorry I’m trolling a bit with these replies. Just in a flat-line humor kind of mood. Love you all, kisses.
Mr North Jersey
11/28/2012-2:18pm at 2:18 pm (UTC -4)
Hazmet
11/28/2012-9:07pm at 9:07 pm (UTC -4)
Alright, since you are in the meteorological field if I remember correctly here’s some stupid humor from my job:
We’re on our status telecom with the government yesterday and the government has their Thermal Subject Matter Expert (SME) on the line and they ask him a question and his name it ends up is… wait for it…. Kelvin.
Really, thermal guy named Kelvin, what are the odd’s? 50/50 he changed his name. Smart dude either way.
Prismo
11/28/2012-9:14pm at 9:14 pm (UTC -4)
HAHA. That’s one of those names that requires you to go into energy.
Fed government? I work in the Department of Energy now, maybe I can track Kelvin down and ask him hahaha.
Hazmet
11/28/2012-9:26pm at 9:26 pm (UTC -4)
Cool. He’s from Circle A as it’s referred to in Cali. I’m doing stuff with AFRL for the past 2 years. Good groups. Ionospheric Plasma Wave fun.
I felt like asking, “what’s your parts guys name? Chip?”
Prismo
11/28/2012-9:34pm at 9:34 pm (UTC -4)
Oh that sounds too smart for lil’ old me.
You should’ve asked exactly that…
Hazmet
11/28/2012-9:40pm at 9:40 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, lil ol you
I know better, If you’re with DOE. Mucho intelligencia.
I had one dealing with ane ex-DOE guy years ago who used to be friends with G. Gordon Liddy. That was shall I say interesting. He kept telling me how Gordon kept saying to him get into gold. Jeez if I ever should have listened to one thing before he started making those damn commercials years ago.
Stick
11/28/2012-3:36pm at 3:36 pm (UTC -4)
The state concedes the existence of Santa Claus.
And that DW but up better numbers when he was a young buck back in 2005-2008.
That being said, so what? If you want, just base the next contract off the last 4 years. Or 2. Or 1.
Or better yet, do the tough job of a FO, which is predict what the hell a guy is going to do over the length of a contract.
and frankly, I have no real clue what he will do and how long he will keep it up. I have my guess, but that is pretty much worth one of Prismo’s refracted lights.
srt
11/28/2012-5:52pm at 5:52 pm (UTC -4)
Whatever they’re gong to do with Wright, I hope they do it soon – as in the next week or so.
Stick
11/28/2012-7:38pm at 7:38 pm (UTC -4)
I was thinking by tomorrow morning, to get it over with.
I still say it will be resolved one way or the other by the start of the winter meetings.
Prismo
11/28/2012-7:14pm at 7:14 pm (UTC -4)
One new point: if BJ Upton gets $15 million per year, how in Seaver’s name does Wright not deserve $18 million per year? Upton’s OBP wasn’t even .300 last season!!!
Players’ values are based on the market, nothing else. And Wright is at least an $18 million man on the open market.
kingman 26
11/28/2012-8:39pm at 8:39 pm (UTC -4)
Yes, two wrongs make a BIG Wright!
wanny
11/28/2012-8:48pm at 8:48 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed. Except Wright is not on the open market. He could break his back again before he reaches the open market…
Stick
11/28/2012-8:55pm at 8:55 pm (UTC -4)
you mean like what Howard did?
Prismo
11/28/2012-9:00pm at 9:00 pm (UTC -4)
Of course you are correct, and that’s a valid point. However, the Mets must predict his 2013 season to the best of their ability and then predict what his value in the market would be next year based on that. So it’s not *that* far off from the truth.
Hazmet
11/28/2012-7:58pm at 7:58 pm (UTC -4)
While I’m not crazy about the numbers they are offering David I still want him back. My position is they are staging the negotiation tone so as to trade him but I’d still want him back. A great deal of stats have been bandied about but at the end of the day my tipping point is this:
Do I really want the Harvey’s, Wheeler’s, and whoever else we’d like to view as our next wave of stud pitching arms to turnaround and not see one proven legitimate major league bat and fielder combo behind them? They’ll go out there thinking, “well, I guess I can only give up 1 run tonight”. While that might be the case anyway, but I just assume have a couple of bats in the lineup and Ike with Wright is better than Ike alone. Also, gives the young pitcher’s 2 above average fielders at the corners to count on. This is more about Wright’s stats, it’s about stability and providing a better foundation to serve most notably the 2 kid starters about to make their way in the bigs.
And as for the offensive stats since 2009 for third baseman:
2009: 2nd best 3rd baseman behind Sandoval
2010: 8th overall but 29 HR & 103 RBIs
2011: Off the top rankings – but played with a broken back so c’mon now, seriously – dude is tough
2012: 4th best overall and 1st overall in NL amongst 3B
Do last year’s split scare me? Certainly, but I’d much rather have Wright taking the field behind Harvey and Wheeler than the Zach Lutz, Murphy, or Flores of the world. For that alone he’s worth a few extra bucks in the till and as Prismo said look what Upton got? Salaries are ridiculous again. And David had nobody around him at all most of last year until Ike decided to show up some time in August. And at that point teams stated they weren’t pitching to Wright.
kingman 26
11/28/2012-8:49pm at 8:49 pm (UTC -4)
Ah, just noticed this line:
“(because some have a certain fascination with 4-year periods)”
Clearly a comment to me.
TRS? I thought we weren’t supposed to single each other out in posts?
Hypocrisy?
Anyone?
LOL!
What a laugh.
wanny
11/28/2012-8:54pm at 8:54 pm (UTC -4)
Performance over 4 year periods are not nearly as telling as a performance in a one month time period 6 years ago.
Prismo
11/28/2012-8:57pm at 8:57 pm (UTC -4)
How much less relevant is a one month time period 6 years ago than a 2 month time period in 2012? Seriously, please think this over.
Stats don’t go stale over time.
wanny
11/28/2012-8:59pm at 8:59 pm (UTC -4)
i don’t think a 2 month period in any year is particularly relevant.
Prismo
11/28/2012-9:02pm at 9:02 pm (UTC -4)
That…is exactly my point.
wanny
11/28/2012-9:06pm at 9:06 pm (UTC -4)
then why did you make a chart based on a series of monthly samples?
Prismo
11/28/2012-9:13pm at 9:13 pm (UTC -4)
Sometimes you make charts to disprove points too.
Initially I made it just to see what it would look like. You never know when a trend will show up. And I think, to Kingman’s credit, it’s pretty clear that Wright’s end-of-season trends have very very clearly gone downhill the past 4 years compared to the beginning of his career.
However, mostly the graph is just a total clusterF. And I think you could find excuses/reasons/etc to discredit the few trends that may be evident.
I’m totally losing my train of thought here, sorry. Umm. Basically I think Wright can still be a very good player – that the OPS trends don’t show too much. Age will drop his numbers, we can all agree on that. But he’s still technically in his prime for a couple years, so I don’t think it’s fair to assume it’s going to be a steep drop-off anytime soon.
Prismo
11/28/2012-9:15pm at 9:15 pm (UTC -4)
Sorry this was a bad explanation on my part. Mainly, I wanted to put the graph up and let people draw their own conclusions. Maybe I just shouldn’t have included my own.
kingman 26
11/29/2012-8:32am at 8:32 am (UTC -4)
And yet another way to view it is that the 3 MVP months of 2012 might not mean that much when viewed against the entire 2011 season and the 3 (3, not 2) mediocre months of 2012.
Which sample has more meaning?
All of 2011 and half of 2012 or the other half of 2012?
Prismo
11/28/2012-8:55pm at 8:55 pm (UTC -4)
It was a joke, I’m happy to remove it if it perturbs you my friend. Consider it gone.
[I actually partially tailor made this for you because I thought maybe you could use it to prove your points]
kingman 26
11/29/2012-8:34am at 8:34 am (UTC -4)
Well, I think each of us has been having a bit of a hard time recently comprehending the other.
My comment was largely tongue in cheek too…I had friends over and was enjoying the Nets pummeling the Celtics with some liquid refreshments.
And TRS and Mr. N have roundly reprimanded me for even thinking about singling others out.
No offense taken, and really, I hope Wright puts up 6 MVP months this year.
But my statistical analysis of his career is absolutely right on the money.
Mr North Jersey
11/29/2012-9:50am at 9:50 am (UTC -4)
Let me just add if I may that my disagreements when they have occurred has been about not singling someone out but how it was went about.
I am guessing that is what was meant to say but so that there is no confusion I wanted to make it clear.
We all I believe do not want to be restrained from expressing our opinions and I would hope no one feels as they are.
Stick
11/28/2012-8:56pm at 8:56 pm (UTC -4)
Hey, I looked at as a positive, giving the people what they want. Seems you took it as an insult. Hmmm.
Prismo
11/28/2012-8:58pm at 8:58 pm (UTC -4)
Honestly, that’s why I did the red/blue color scheme. I thought he’d find use in it and it kept things simpler. Oh well.
Hazmet
11/28/2012-8:59pm at 8:59 pm (UTC -4)
Well certainly 4 years is a large enough sample size so we don’t need to have that debate.
This is going to be one of those deals that I’m going to kick myself either way it goes. If he’s gone, while I’ll understand, I’ll be pissed. And if he stays and its north of $120M, which it sounds like that’s a sure bet, I’ll be pissed.
So typical Met’s they’ll just piss me off no matter what they do.
Prismo
11/28/2012-9:03pm at 9:03 pm (UTC -4)
LOL I think that’s actually a very rational viewpoint. Cheers.
darknova306
11/28/2012-9:17pm at 9:17 pm (UTC -4)
Pretty much, Haz. It’s still the same ole team we all know and love. Drink up.
Hazmet
11/28/2012-9:28pm at 9:28 pm (UTC -4)
Now that’s a plan I can get behind! Was excited to see your post about the Barn transformation. Can’t wait to hear what’s ahead.