Here we are the day before the start of the 2012 Major League Baseball Winter Meetings , and for the first time since the ’09 season I feel optimistic that the Mets will be wheeling and dealing instead of sitting on the sidelines. Maybe it is because the Mets locked up David Wright late last week and in the process freeing up much needed financial flexibility by restructuring his 2013 salary ( as well as the buying out of Jason Bay’s contract) or maybe it seems like the Mets could make some potential trades from a position of strength, I am hoping Sandy Alderson comes away on Wednesday with more answers to the upcoming season than questions.
So here are my predictions for what will happen over the next three days.
There is a 60/40 percent chance that R.A Dickey is signed to a contract extension . Conversely I think that there is a 60/40 percent chance that Jonathan Niese is dealt.
If the Mets fail to re-sign Dickey I expect him to be dealt to the Kansas City Royals for either their top outfield prospect, Wil Myers or catching prospect, Salvador Perez.
If Niese is dealt I think it will be to the Blue Jays for stud catching prospect, Travis D’arnauld or a package of catcher, J.P Arenciba and outfield prospect Rajai Davis.
I expect the Mets to sign former Atlanta Braves outfielder, Matt Diaz and platoon him with Mike Baxter in center field.
I think the Mets will sign low cost middle relievers to try out for the pen during Spring Training, but I expect the Mets to find solutions from within (Mejia, Parnell,Edgin and Carson as well as Frank Francisco closing).
If the Mets are not able to deal for a catcher I expect the Mets to sign Jesus Flores or bring back Kelly Shoppach to platoon with Josh Thole.
So do you agree/disagree ? let me know in the comment section below.
And with that said… HERE COMES THE INFAMY !!!!!
Mets alumni celebrating a birthday today includes:
Reserve catcher from the ’76 season, Jay Kleven would have been 63 today (1949).
Mets third base coach from 2010-2011, Chip Hale is 48 (1964). He is currently the bench coach for the Oakland A’s.
The New York Mets drafted spot starter/middle reliever, Jerry Hinsley from the Pittsburgh Pirates on December 2, 1963.
The New York Mets purchased the contract of reserve catcher, Hawk Taylor from the Milwaukee Braves on December 2, 1963.
The New York Mets drafted third baseman, Wayne Garrett from the Atlanta Braves on December 2, 1968.Garrett would be a mainstay at third base for the Mets from 1969-1976.
The Oakland Athletics drafted outfielder, Tommie Reynolds from the Mets on December 2, 1968.
The New York Mets signed free agent outfielder, Bobby Bonilla of the Pittsburgh Pirates on December 2, 1991. What was thought to be a “no-brainer” signing at the time turned into a nightmare for Bonilla, the Mets as well as us Mets fans.
The New York Mets signed free agent middle reliever, Roger Mason on December 2, 1992.
The Cleveland Indians signed first baseman, Eddie Murray of the New York Mets as a free agent on December 2, 1993. Although Murray played on some bad Mets teams, he was still a excellent defender as well as a power hitting threat.
The Arizona Diamondbacks signed starting pitcher, Armando Reynoso of the New York Mets as a free agent on December 2, 1998.
The New York Mets signed free agent third baseman, Robin Ventura of the Chicago White Sox on December 2, 1998.The acquisition of Ventura solidified what would be known as the best defensive infield ever.
The Cleveland Indians signed middle reliever, Roberto Hernandez of the New York Mets as a free agent on December 2, 2006.
The Los Angeles Angels signed spot starter/middle reliever, Hisanori Takahashi of the New York Mets as a free agent on December 2, 2010. Takahashi was one of the brighter spots for the Mets late in the 2010 season.
The Los Angeles Dodgers signed starting pitcher, Chris Capuano of the New York Mets as a free agent on December 2, 2011.
Mo Vaughn is intent on visiting every Piggly Wiggly in the Nashville area while he is in town for the Winter Meetings !!!!
43 comments
Bryan
12/2/2012-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
Diaz and Baxter in centerfield? Maybe Diaz would be good to platoon with Duda in LF, which wouldn’t be terrible, except neither are great defensively.
I hope the Royals agree to trade Myers for Dickey, and I hope that the Mets DO NOT trade Niese. Also, I don’t think the Blue Jays need any more major leaguers, the Mets should hopefully be able to trade prospects for Arencibia.
rustyjr
12/2/2012-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
I am weary of ARENCIBIA- he reminds me of Shoppach without the defense
TRS86
12/2/2012-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
How tired does he make you? Lol. I was just coming to laugh at Baron being weary of Dickeys value…
Stick
12/2/2012-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
I agree that odds are one of Dickey or Niese is traded.
and with those catching items (JP) I would rather go after Soto for just money. At least he was good within the last few years! and he still hits lefties.
Stick
12/2/2012-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
oh, and diaz as a platoon guy, makes a lot of sense.
TX
12/2/2012-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
Good post, Rusty. The only way I see Myers getting traded is for Niese. And it would pretty much be straight up, one for one. Probably the same for Perez. Dickey I see as the fit for Tor, LAA, Tex and possibly Bos or Balt. If Dickey goes to Tor, I don’t mind JP being the catcher coming back in that trade, but it better come with Gose or a reasonible facsimile there of and another player as well. Straight up for JP is dumb. D – U – M, dumb.
I like the Diaz idea. That sounds,Ike a solid plan. As well as the likelihood of just scrounging around for other BP players, though I wish they go risky here and sign Soria. I do like the Familia, Edgin, Mejia, etc. idea for internal options. Wouldn’t mind Rameriz to come back either.
Lastly, they need to have at least one leftie in the rotation, which is my hesitation in trading Niese. As far as pitching pickups, I like McCarthy. And it’s a shame Pelf set fire to his NY Bridges, as he would have been nice to have stashed in the minors.
Stick
12/2/2012-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
I think Niese, as an established ML starter, will need more than Myers back. Either a ML pen guy, or a lower level SP prospect with upside.
and I want to retract all support for Diaz. He is going to be 35, and he has sucked for years. His numbers vs. LHP are particularly putrid (think, Pelfrey and Ollie laugh at them), though I know he is being looked at as a platoon guy, but even vs. LHP he is marginal at best.
there must be better options out there.
TX
12/2/2012-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)
Can you provide another target? A military target? Then name the system, err, player!
Stick
12/2/2012-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
well, Francisco is out there, but he kind of sucks. Mayberry Jr. would be a good option, but he is still with the Phils.
someone like Mayberry. research is not my thing, but I am sure there are other players out there in that category (veteran corner OFs that rake lefties).
Stick
12/2/2012-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
OK, if you want to go way out of the box, Alfonso Soriano.
Cubs want to move him bad. If they eat enough money, maybe? We don’t have any bad contracts to send them now. He still can hit. especially lefites.
srt
12/2/2012-12:28pm at 12:28 pm (UTC -4)
I say pass on Soriano – his defense is suspect. If we’re getting him, we’d better have a very speedy center fielder.
Stick
12/2/2012-12:40pm at 12:40 pm (UTC -4)
read ahead. Carlos Gomez. And Kirk.
Problem with Soriano of course is he has to play left, meaning then you have to unload Duda.
srt
12/2/2012-3:28pm at 3:28 pm (UTC -4)
Does Soriano have a no trade clause?
I thought I remembered a rumored trade involving him last year and he nixed it b/c he had a no trade clause. To Miami maybe? (and who could blame him).
Speaking of Miami….I read where there are several agents who on the say so of their clients, won’t even talk to Miami or entertain any offers from Loria. Speculating they might have to give that elusive no trade clause they hate so much to get any decent FA to sign there.
TRS86
12/2/2012-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
How about Dickey for Olt? Did not realize he played some OF last year.
Stick
12/2/2012-11:05am at 11:05 am (UTC -4)
Is that like Todd Hundley playing some OF one year? Or Ike played in College?
and remember, Duda played a lot of OF last year!
TX
12/2/2012-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
Per baseball ref, 4 games in OF for 2012. 2 errors.
TX
12/2/2012-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
6 total games in the OF for the minors.
srt
12/2/2012-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
Interesting, Rusty.
I’m assuming your predictions of Dickey/Niese being dealt is an either/or, right? In other words, no way they trade both of them. Well, at least I hope they don’t.
I hate to see either dealt. Can’t have enough pitching.
But if one or the other is involved in a trade, I’d rather it be Dickey. And I love Dickey, I hate the thought of him not being the starting pitcher on opening day. But Niese is a lefty, is younger, has a very team friendly contract for 5 years and has the potential to be a solid #2 type pitcher. At the worst he’s a solid middle of the rotation pitcher. Plus, if some years down the road we actually get lucky and Harvey/Wheeler/Mejia/Familia all work out, Niese would be a very good trade chip.
rustyjr
12/2/2012-12:46pm at 12:46 pm (UTC -4)
yes either or – not both
Connor O'Brien
12/2/2012-12:44pm at 12:44 pm (UTC -4)
Just for the record, Rajai Davis isn’t a prospect but he is a speedy guy who can hit lefties pretty well
Mr North Jersey
12/2/2012-12:46pm at 12:46 pm (UTC -4)
Connor, Connor, Connor. Nope! Doesn’t ring a bell.
rustyjr
12/2/2012-12:46pm at 12:46 pm (UTC -4)
my bad was early this morning when I wrote it
kingman 26
12/2/2012-1:10pm at 1:10 pm (UTC -4)
Arencibia SUCKS.
Metsblog suggesting Niese for him is really a new low, even by their standard of utter idiocy.
Cannot believe his name keeps getting bandied about.
He’s Rod Barajas with a LOT more strikeouts.
Stick
12/2/2012-1:23pm at 1:23 pm (UTC -4)
speaking of which, the real Barajas is available (pretty sure I saw him on the non-tender list.)
instead of Arenciba, I would rather try to snag Soto. He is still young, hits lefties, and can catch. Probably just as good a chance he helps as the other guy.
Skip Lockwood
12/2/2012-2:38pm at 2:38 pm (UTC -4)
Rajai Davis is not a prospect…he’s 31 yrs old. All he does is steal bases – he stinks.
Stick
12/2/2012-4:01pm at 4:01 pm (UTC -4)
how about another scenario (one that should shut up the “sandy does nothing” crowd, though I can already see where they would attack next!)
I already said that I expect the team to have a lot of discussions about Dickey, and due diligence says to ask what they would give for Niese instead. Do I expect them to trade them both? No, not likely, rather they would just pick the best deal and trade that guy.
Though while it would surprise me, what if say KC offered a huge haul for Neise, and Texas offered a big return for Dickey. Both packages qualifying as too good to pass up. In that case, should you roll the dice to rebuild the positional core in one shot, and then go and find some “tide me over” pitching for a year while other pitching prospects develop? Grab a lannan type, stuff like that.
Probably swerves you back toward the punting 2013 and building for 2014+ side of the spectrum, but that is fine.
the beauty of not having a plan is you can invent one as you go. I always have said that you have to take what the market offers (you can’t force it to have what you want), and need to adjust on the fly.
srt
12/2/2012-4:09pm at 4:09 pm (UTC -4)
I’m of the opinion right now that I won’t be surprised by anything this club does this winter.
Right now, I think the only 3 I’ll go on record that won’t be traded are Wright, Ike and Harvey. Maybe 4….maybe Wheeler added to that list.
I can see any of the others being used in a package type deal if the return is good enough to warrant it.
Stick
12/2/2012-4:13pm at 4:13 pm (UTC -4)
I think the 4 is correct, but still a shot with wheeler.
Hey, I said I want this blown up, and if they can come up with a serious talent for CF, RF and C (oh hell, throw in 2B and closer of the future too!) out of it, I can live with a patchwork rotation.
As long as they can hit, run and play D for a change, we can make do with the SP.
harvey, Johan, Gee, and ?? (wheeler/lannan/pelf/etc.) Could also get a possibility out of the trades.
srt
12/2/2012-4:43pm at 4:43 pm (UTC -4)
If they do wind up trading one of Dickey or Niese, do you think they try and sign Pelf to a one year deal to fill the hole?
Pelf went on record saying the only way he’d be back in Flushing is if the Mets did trade one of their starting 5 they’ve got right now. He wants a ML contract and he wants to remain a starter.
I suppose the answer is in how much he’d want.
Stick
12/2/2012-4:52pm at 4:52 pm (UTC -4)
they might. The bigger issue to me is, you can’t sign him now for a guaranteed rotation spot, not knowing if he will even be ready to pitch.
certainly a catch-22 with him.
Hank
12/2/2012-6:13pm at 6:13 pm (UTC -4)
I think it all depends on the package right??
Say let’s say Texas offers Profar for Dickey, and Royals offer Myers for Niese. Again, all hypothetical, but there is no scenario in which I can see the Mets turning that down. Hopefully you can get some arms back. But if this is the case, you could sign 2-4 guys with SP experience, and hope at least one is decent, and another can last unitl July when you call up Wheeler for good.
Stick
12/2/2012-7:35pm at 7:35 pm (UTC -4)
talk about revamping the lineup. That would certainly qualify as major changes.
wanny
12/2/2012-6:21pm at 6:21 pm (UTC -4)
I have a better shot at playing a capable CF than Matt Diaz.
TRS86
12/2/2012-6:26pm at 6:26 pm (UTC -4)
Lol, agreed. Actually unless you are getting a stud, just go in house forCF and look for that RH, RF.
wanny
12/2/2012-6:29pm at 6:29 pm (UTC -4)
What makes you think I am not a stud?
MLB rosters are loaded with ROY candidates who are 37 year old lawyers that rode the bench for their high school teams.
TRS86
12/2/2012-6:36pm at 6:36 pm (UTC -4)
Lol, nice.
srt
12/2/2012-6:54pm at 6:54 pm (UTC -4)
SIGN WANNY!
TRS86
12/2/2012-6:55pm at 6:55 pm (UTC -4)
Been trying to for years but he would rather just rip us to spreads instead.
wanny
12/2/2012-7:30pm at 7:30 pm (UTC -4)
the last thing i want is for TRS to spread!
TRS86
12/2/2012-7:33pm at 7:33 pm (UTC -4)
Damn ipad auto correct, lol.
Mr North Jersey
12/2/2012-7:33pm at 7:33 pm (UTC -4)
“the last thing i want is for TRS to spread!”
Hahahaha
TRS86
12/2/2012-7:34pm at 7:34 pm (UTC -4)
First I thought it was a fat joke, lol.
geo
12/3/2012-6:04pm at 6:04 pm (UTC -4)
The first trade scenario is not happening. The Royals will not trade 6+ years of control of Myers for one year of Dickey. And they especially will not trade Perez (who is not a prospect, by the way) for Dickey. Perez is signed through 2019, which is seven more years, for a total of $21 million. The Mets would have to offer more than Dickey for a young stud catcher signed that cheap for that long.
As for the Blue Jays deal, I could actually see Arencibia and Davis for Niese, although I actually think the Mets could do better. I don’t think the Jays will trade d’Arnaud, although they should consider it since he hasn’t been healthy two out of the last three seasons. Plus he blew out his medial collateral ligament this year. A major knee injury like that is not good for a catcher. But yeah, if the Mets would take Arencibia and Davis for Niese, I’m all over that if I’m the Jays.