On December 1st there was a Newsday report of the following:
Source says Mets might get creative with backloaded contracts
As the market unfolds it appears that Michael Bourn is not going to receive an offer even close to his original demands that were rumored to be for more than the 5/75 BJ Upton received. Honestly, I never believed he was that type of player to begin with considering age and skill sets (yeah I went there).
However, with Pagan netting 4/40M and Upton his 5/75, it appears that Bourn’s price might finally be set. The soon-to-be 30 year old speedy CF in my opinion will receive some type of 5 year deal for around 60M total. Obviously Bourn isn’t a natural fit for the Mets as he is another LH and has boasted a SLG % over .400 only once in his career. His OBP is going to be in the .340s almost every year and while he does steal bases, he often steals them at the wrong time or at ineffective times and gets caught stealing a lot as well. That being said, the Mets are missing speed not only on offense but on defense as well and adding Bourn to the top of the lineup would certainly lengthen the lineup and provide that missing element that has been lacking since the Reyes injury in 2011. Defensively the Mets appear to be trotting out Duda into LF and possibly a guy like Hairston in RF so a strong defensive CF is certainly a priority.
With all this said, could the Mets and Bourn come to a back-loaded agreement and would that move even be something the Mets should consider?
Assuming the answer is that they should consider bringing in Bourn, would a contract like the following be of interest to him?
2013 8M
2014 12M
2015 14M
2016 14M
2017 12M
This deal would be similar to the structure reported for David Wright. Light in the front, heavier in the middle and decreased final year. I would also say that including a NTC would be a stickler because if I were the Mets there’s no way I would include that in the deal.
Back to the second question, should they even consider this deal? The Mets uh…strength in their prospects (albeit not really a strength at all, I guess I should say depth) is LH CFs in Kirk and Den Dekker. Den Dekker is 25 years old and struggled terribly in his first taste of AAA. Kirk is a free swinging “gritty” 25 year old who really caught Mets’ fans attention when he was first called up only to seemingly be exposed later in the year.
| Split | G | GS | PA | R | H | 2B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April/March | 22 | 19 | 88 | 11 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 25 | .325 | .386 | .475 | .861 |
| May | 28 | 20 | 93 | 15 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 29 | .263 | .337 | .300 | .637 |
| June | 25 | 20 | 90 | 13 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 26 | .238 | .281 | .464 | .745 |
| July | 16 | 10 | 43 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 18 | .105 | .190 | .132 | .322 |
Fangraphs shows the Bill James projection for Kirk in 2013 as the following:
.259, .329, .414 .743
It also has Michael Bourn with:
.273, .344, .363, .707
Sorry Mets fans, while Kirk may not achieve those projections, there is no way that paying Bourn the kind of money he demands is worth the production improvement over Kirk. Give the kid a chance and look for that RH bat like Cody Ross or Ludwick and save some cash for catcher and bullpen improvements.
49 comments
TX
12/6/2012-9:48am at 9:48 am (UTC -4)
For a second I thought you were panning for Bourne. The more I read, the more I thought, no freaking way. Good that you came to the same conclusion at the end.
srt
12/6/2012-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
This.
If he was a RH bat, maybe…..we really need another RH bat.
TRS86
12/6/2012-10:01am at 10:01 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I was trying to take you through my thought process as I considered it this morning. The more I looked at it the more I realized it was an awful fit.
TX
12/6/2012-10:04am at 10:04 am (UTC -4)
His D is spectacular, but having seen him play in Houston and watched him play for ATL, he finally just started putting it together these past couple years and with a game predicated on speed and his legs, his BA and OBP are going to continue to drop as he can’t leg out hits like he used to.
With infinite cash reserves, yes, he’s better than what we have.
TRS86
12/6/2012-10:02am at 10:02 am (UTC -4)
Really, the Mets should just go out and get AJ and Cody Ross and call it a day. Getter done Omar… Sandy.
kingman 26
12/6/2012-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
If it was Omar, they’d each be signed to 5-year deals already.
But it’s not, and I highly doubt we get either of them.
Prismo
12/6/2012-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
Don’t tell me you gave up on Myers already!
srt
12/6/2012-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)
LOL
If we sign Dickey, will it surprise anyone if this is all we do?
kingman 26
12/6/2012-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
It would not surprise me if we do not sign Dickey and this is all we do.
This is the current Mets.
srt
12/6/2012-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
Not exactly ‘wholesale’ changes, huh?
darknova306
12/6/2012-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
Wouldn’t surprise me if saying there’d be ‘wholesale changes’ was simply a pr move to get fans to re-up their season tickets.
4th place.
TRS86
12/6/2012-10:32am at 10:32 am (UTC -4)
Well actually, aren’t their different definitions of wholesale?
LOL.
darknova306
12/6/2012-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
Haha, very true! Maybe they’re going to change the wholesaler they go through for beer cups?
srt
12/6/2012-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
There might be different definitions but the context in which this FO used it was there were going to be some REAL changes, IMO.
Of course, the off season is far from over yet so we’ll see.
If they go into the season with the OF prospects we’ve got now, I’d have to say ‘wholesale’ was an exaggeration.
TX
12/6/2012-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
Red Solo Cup…
TRS86
12/6/2012-10:41am at 10:41 am (UTC -4)
I was thinking that it means that all the players they are looking for are on the wholesale market?
kingman 26
12/6/2012-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
Well, while I do not pretend to be an expert on WAR, Kirk’s was 0 and Bourn’s was 6.0, which was 6th in the NL, one spot behind St. Dimples, who just about everyone but me thinks is worth $140 million or more.
Bourn would be a nice player for the Mets, especially in Citi, with his fielding ability and speed; great fielder, steals a lot of bases, walks some, hits a good amount of 2B/3B…and is the same age as St. David of Queens.
But there’s zero chance the team has the resources to sign a player like this.
TRS86
12/6/2012-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
With the continued Dimples comment Kong I think you are coming across as a little to much like those you despise.
While you are correct their WAR’s are far between, Fangraphs has Kirk’s at .9 and at a value of 4.1M which is for 91 games.
Also one of the reasons for the low WAR was his UZR rated out at a -2.5 total but that was mostly due to a disastrous score in RF where he was -15.7. In CF he was a positive 2.5. Again we know our issues with one year of UZR.
Bourn had a 22.4UZR in CF last year and -6.4 in 2011. LOL.
Again, I am not saying that Bourn isn’t much better than Kirk but I am saying he isn’t worth his contract and considering the Mets needs he isn’t a fit.
kingman 26
12/6/2012-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
Do me a favor and don’t compare me to the illiterate losers at MMO again, OK? I take that as a real insult and I don’t appreciate it.
What I say about Wright is about 99% in jest, and with zero of the ignorance or miserable hatred your good friends Alex and Bayonne spew every single day in their miserable lives.
I have ALWAYS liked Wright and been a fan of his; I just personally feel that the team’s future would have been better served by trading him and not spending so much on him. He IS very good, he DOES play hard and through injuries, he HAS been clutch, he WAS awesome down the stretch in 2007 and 2008 while Reyes danced and disappeared. OK?
Having said that, let’s remember that Bourn is a seasoned veteran and Kirk is a rookie who looked very good before the league caught up with him, which often happens. It is a lot easier to reasonably project what can be expected from Bourn in the future than what can be expected from Kirk, who may never be an effective everyday player.
Is Bourn worth a deal like this? Very hard to say, considering the very fluid and very insane new economics we are seeing. Victorino’s deal amazed me.
TX
12/6/2012-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
I’m blown away by some of these deals I’m seeing. Vicky’s, Blanton’s, Pagan’s…
Probably more economical to go after Gomez, like the scenario laid out by gregg & trs. Plus, you wont lose a pick that way like you would with Bourne.
TRS86
12/6/2012-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
Blanton’s deal surprises me the most.
TX
12/6/2012-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)
I’m at a toss up between Vicky and Blanton. It’s these funky deals and Grienke’s to come that more than solidify the thought that Dickey, if traded, will bring back someone on par with Myers.
srt
12/6/2012-10:51am at 10:51 am (UTC -4)
Add the Pirates Russel Martin deal to that group.
Couldn’t prove by MLB that these are hard economic times.
TRS86
12/6/2012-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
I get so up in arms about this Myers stuff. Myers is an elite prospect so just because the Royals won’t trade him for Dickey doesn’t mean that another team wouldn’t trade their top hitting OF prospect for him. You can’t say that because the Royals won’t trade Myers that Dickey’s value is low. That’s a terrible hypothesis.
TX
12/6/2012-11:05am at 11:05 am (UTC -4)
I agree completely. He’s not the only prospect out there. Heck, he isn’t even one of the multitude of very good prospects the Royals have.
kingman 26
12/6/2012-11:06am at 11:06 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, Blanton and Martin’s deals are nuts too.
Really, it just again shows what a continuing perfect storm this is for the Mets—at a terrible time for them financially, THIS has to be the time the new TV money is spreading and FA contracts are getting out of hand!
srt
12/6/2012-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
Agree, TRS
TRS86
12/6/2012-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
I know I am just busting your chops but we need to get over the Wright deal. There were many points as to why not to do it and many as to why to do it. I am just glad that it appears if nothing else he took a team friendly deal.
Back to Bourn, again in a perfect world you pick up Bourn and a RH hitter. However, IMO we have CF covered with Kirk more than RF/RH with uh… yeah we don’t even have a RH hitting OF even close.
kingman 26
12/6/2012-11:00am at 11:00 am (UTC -4)
I hear you; and I agree. I am over it.
And your points combined with the HUGE question mark which Kirk is really make me think that Bourn–if affordable–would be very nice for this team.
However, I am not sure how his numbers make him a 6.0 WAR guy–I guess in his case defense and speed account for much of it.
TRS86
12/6/2012-11:09am at 11:09 am (UTC -4)
I just can’t agree on Bourn. To me we have a much more pressing need in RF and Kirk still has potential IMO.
TRS86
12/6/2012-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
On a side note, Bill James predicts a decline in every category for Bourn next year. It really flashes the signs of a career year.
Prismo
12/6/2012-11:13am at 11:13 am (UTC -4)
Correct Kingman. Baserunning and fielding are HUGE components of WAR – as in more than half of it. So his overinflated UZR surely contributed to his ridiculously high WAR. He still had a great year all things considered and I’m sure if UZR was a less sh***y statistic, his WAR would still have been at least 4ish.
TRS86
12/6/2012-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, another question as well. Would Kirk’s really have been around 1.5-2.0 if he had played a full season or is it prorated?
kingman 26
12/6/2012-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
Thank you Prismo, this is very much what I assumed. And I totally agree that UZR is very flawed.
I think Wright’s WAR was a bit inflated by his fielding last year, which was, undoubtedly, outstanding and much improved from recent years.
And Prismo can answer, but I do not think WAR is prorated, right? It is cumulative?
Prismo
12/6/2012-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
TRS, I believe WAR is accumulated. Meaning if Kirk had 0.9 WAR over 91 games, you may assume his WAR over ~140 games would’ve been ~1.5.
Fangraphs uses this chart so you can see what that means in terms of their value:
Scrub 0-1 WAR
Role Player 1-2 WAR
Solid Starter 2-3 WAR
Good Player 3-4 WAR
All-Star 4-5 WAR
Superstar 5-6 WAR
MVP 6+ WAR
TRS86
12/6/2012-12:21pm at 12:21 pm (UTC -4)
That’s what I thought, so actually a guy with around a 1.5 WAR for how much Kirk is paid is most likely a good bargain.
TRS86
12/6/2012-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
TX said something above and I will agree with.
If our payroll was 120M, then they should go get Bourn and Ross and remake the OF. But… it isn’t thus I would rather take my chances with Kirk in CF and use the money on a RH bat.
greggofboken
12/6/2012-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
I don’t like backloaded deals in general unless the player involved is a unique player the likes of whom won’t come by again. Bourn does not strike me as a a player like that, nor are we close enough that I think his presence in 2013 makes a significant enough difference in conjunction with the other moves we’re likely to make. The organization has made an awful history of living on credit in so many different forms, I hate to see it perpetuate and am troubled that it looks to be. Bay’s salary deferral on his buyout I saw as a necessary evil. DW’s not so much. (And what exactly is the $7M additional from DW being spent on? Yet to be seen).
I’d rather live within our means and get used to doing so just in principle, the merits of Bourn or not aside.
FWIW, the 2014 free agent class will offer Carlos Gomez in center, who’s younger, perhaps with more modest skills, but certainly less pricey. Gomez’s success rate on stolen bases is 80%.
TRS86
12/6/2012-10:31am at 10:31 am (UTC -4)
I have been pining for the Mets to trade for Gomez for months now. I would be willing to throw Duda, Familia/Mejia and a lower level guy with potential even for one year of Gomez if we can re-sign him.
TX
12/6/2012-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
I’d do that as well. More apt to trading Mejia over familia, but at this point, they neither project to be anything more than BP help. And Duda… Well, he’s fodder at this point.
TRS86
12/6/2012-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
Man this market is crazy:
The Phillies acquired outfielder Ben Revere from the Twins, reports MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. Starting pitcher Vance Worley is going to the Twins in the deal, tweets Danny Knobler of CBS Sports. A good minor league pitching prospect is also headed to Minnesota in the trade, tweets Scott Miller of CBS Sports.
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#ZwVCfqUI9mWwrVvF.99
TX
12/6/2012-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
What is the comparable on that? Gee + Fulmer? Gee + Familia?
TRS86
12/6/2012-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
We really don’t have one. Worley is not as good as Niese and better than Gee.
TX
12/6/2012-12:38pm at 12:38 pm (UTC -4)
Revere is nice, but not that nice. That to me says we should expect a haul for Dickey or Niese, and expect to have to trade Familia + Flores + something else to get anything of worth for the outfield.
TRS86
12/6/2012-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
Actually it doesn’t make me warm and fuzzy about a return for Dickey if Worely and their #2 prospect only nets a speedy OF.
Stick
12/6/2012-12:52pm at 12:52 pm (UTC -4)
no way in hell it should happen. So give thing, no way it will!
try to snag Gomez away. Though would be nice if they could also get him extended, but start somewhere.
Stick
12/6/2012-12:57pm at 12:57 pm (UTC -4)
oh yeah, it makes a ton more sense to spend about the same $ next year on AJP.
thank you.
wanny
12/6/2012-5:46pm at 5:46 pm (UTC -4)
Bourn for 5 yrs? Too many for a guy whose only asset is his speed.
Chris
12/8/2012-7:30pm at 7:30 pm (UTC -4)
This would make too much sense…
The Mets should…
1) Re-Sign Dickey to a 2 year contract
2) Sign Bourn to a 4 year contract with a 5th year team option
3) Trade for Justin Upton, I dont care if it costs Wheeler and Flores
4) Trade Jennry Mejia for JP Arenicia
5) Sign a Closer or Set-Up Man
Not that this is the route I would like them to go…if I was GM, I would have traded Pagan, Reyes, Wright and Dickey for prospects and rebuilt