Most of us are guilty of harping on Sandy Alderson and the Mets for being the last team in the 2012-13 off-season to sign a free agent to a major league contract. It can be incredibly frustrating to see every other team in the league sign players for their roster, while the Mets sit idly by without an outfield, half a bullpen, and a fifth starter. In this post we’ll take a look at how bad teams managed their free agent acquisitions over the past three off-seasons (2009-2011) and how these decisions affected their teams the following seasons.
The Mets finished the 2012 season with a paltry 74 wins; from 2009-2011 36 teams finished their seasons with 74 wins or fewer. These teams signed anywhere from one to seven free agents in the following off-seasons, and 28 of them finished the following season with a better record. Now they say when you’re so far down there’s nowhere to go but up, and this may very well skew the results – if a team finished with <74 wins they’re probably more likely to win a couple more games rather than deteriorate further in the next season. Enough chit-chat, here are some interesting statistics from my small sample size study:
- 36 teams from 2009-2011 finished with 74 wins or fewer (Mets had 74 wins in 2012).
- 28 of those teams won more games in their following season.
- On average these teams signed close to four free agents to major league deals and won 5.7 more games the following season.
- The teams signed anywhere from 1-7 major league free agents, and here are their average win differentials in the following season (in ascending order): 10, 10, 0.4, 4.7, 1.7, 9.7, 12.8.
- Some big swings: The 2008 Rockies won 72 games, signed 1 free agent, and increased their win total by 20 games in 2009. The 2008 Mariners won 61 games, signed 2 free agents, and increased their win total by 24 games in 2009. The 2010 Diamondbacks won 65 games, signed 7 free agents, and increased their win total by 29 games in 2011. The 2011 Orioles won 69 games, signed 5 free agents, and increased their win total by 24 games in 2012. The 2011 Athletics won 74 games, signed 3 free agents, and increased their win total by 20 games in 2012.
But what does this all mean!? I see no correlation in the past three off-seasons (again, small sample size) of teams improving their record strictly by signing players to major league contracts. There are so many factors that go into how a team performs – trades, player development, injuries, their competition, etc – how can we make sense of free agent signings alone? And how do you compare a $500k acquisition of a 5th outfielder to signing Josh Hamilton?
Maybe we’re all making far too big a deal of the Mets laying low (myself very much included) this off-season. Heck, the odds probably favor the Mets winning a few more games if they kept the same team in tact. Yes, Dickey’s gone, but Wheeler will be called up soon, and with some key players under-performing in 2012 it’s hard to make heads or tails of exactly how Dickey’s absence might affect the team’s standing. I think at the very least, the “statistic” that the Mets are the last team to sign a free agent to a major league contracts means absolutely nothing. It’s the quality of those players that truly matter. The Mets could have bypassed this stigma by signing Torres to a deal, but instead they traded for Cowgill who may very well be more effective this season. I guess this could all be summed by the phrase “it’s not the size of the boat, it’s the motion of the ocean.”
47 comments
SaltyGary
12/28/2012-12:21pm at 12:21 pm (UTC -4)
As long as the FA is better than the person they are replacing, it should add some wins. But it doesn’t seem like the team is too interested in winning right now, does it.
chris
12/30/2012-12:53am at 12:53 am (UTC -4)
getting fa does do some good things for a team,you can get some minor leaugers for some players like the wiggingtons or outfielders you can get up to 4 0r 5 in 2 years for players fa,, sometime can be jewels you cant get better in a organzation if you dont do anything but hope
TX
12/28/2012-12:23pm at 12:23 pm (UTC -4)
Unless the team is going to invest in a FA that is worth it, then might as well run out the dregs we have. I wanted Ross, flaws and all, because he can actually play everyday and wouldn’t cost a draft pick. After that… there ain’t much.
I still have hopes a trade can be done. Be it with AZ or OAK or Minny…
Stick
12/28/2012-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
depends on the FA. If you go all Marlins and sign 2 big name star guys, that should help more than signing 2 guys like Hairston and Lannan. So without looking at the players, hard to know what happened, and why.
even the huge jump teams, was that thanks to the FAs signed, or guys they already had?
also, and this bugs me a lot, people often look only at the inflow, and ignore the outflow. Look at the Braves. Yes, they added Upton, but they lost Bourne from the same position. Was this a +, -, or a wash?
so honestly, if the FO looks at what they can afford, and decide that the difference between say a Kirk/COwbell platoon and Ross everyday is negligible (like going from 74 to 77 wins say), they might figure why bother wasting short $s on a guy that has no relevance to the future.
what I would like is to see more guys brought in that could help now, and be building blocks too. that is a win win. Like the ALvarez dude. Do it Sandy. Total no brainer.
but Hairston even? Blah.
greggofboken
12/28/2012-1:05pm at 1:05 pm (UTC -4)
I’d argue that the Braves have made themselves worse, to your point above.
TRS86
12/28/2012-9:04pm at 9:04 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed about what is the end result? Is signing mediocre players for millions of dollars at this point worth the negligible difference in wins? You use FA when you are ready to win to put you over the top not to get you to the top.
greggofboken
12/28/2012-1:13pm at 1:13 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t attach much meaning to the factoid that we haven’t signed anyone yet.
There were two outfielders in our range — Ludwick and Ross. Both I’d have been happy had the Mets taken a run at. But if there really is all of about $10M in discretionary money to spend their contracts ($7.5 for Ludwick and $26M for Ross in a three-year commitment — only $5M next year) were deemed too much. I’d debate Ross for a bit, but the decision not to sign him is defensible given the resources.
Catching’s been addressed. The other needs (5th starter, 3 non-closer bullpen spots) haven’t had their markets appear yet. The worthwhile candidates are still out there. (Rauch and Ramiriez signed on day one of last year’s winter meetings. What was the urgency, I wonder? It’s telling that both are still available.)
The only reason the non-signing is an issue at all is our own collective, dwindling patience. In the third year of a four-year rebuild that was never called such, and in the advent of our trading away a 20-game winner, which will likely drop the win total for the coming year, the impatience is understandable…..but the clamor for a free-agent signing springs from emotion rather than logic or market circumstances, in my view.
srt
12/28/2012-1:50pm at 1:50 pm (UTC -4)
I have a feeling there’s a lot less of petty cash to be spent then they’re letting on.
That being said, I have no problem rolling with mostly the kids in the OF for this year except for depth. What happens if 2 of the starting OF is injured – and it’s for a long duration? Say Baxter and Kirk go down for a month each? What are we left with then? I can just imagine….
Whether they plan on contending or not this year – and let’s face it, they are not – you still have to field a credible ML team. Looking at the contracts some of these guys are getting (Cody Ross, for example), I can see why we weren’t in on any of those.
If Hairston is still affordable, I say sign him and call it a day. Unless they’re going to surprise us with a trade.
Stick
12/28/2012-3:15pm at 3:15 pm (UTC -4)
agreed. plus I hae no real desire to see Ross or Hairston playing everyday, and proving why they whouldn’t be.
LIke Boken said, some of the filler market is still in limbo. So I expect a few more moves.
I sitll like Alvarez as the “big splash move”, and trying to build more foundation for the future.
beyond that, a couple guys like Hairston, Howell, maybe Kearns on a 1 year deal to shore up the dike. And maybe another SP, though Javy Vazquez might be the best ST option left, so who knows!
they seem to have much of a starting team at this point, and plenty of bench guys, so a few pen arms and some platoon OFs and call it another lousy off season!
TX
12/28/2012-4:18pm at 4:18 pm (UTC -4)
It makes too much sense to go that route and get a Cuban or two for the OF. Especially considering there is no draft impact, just costs money and they are relatively young players.
gategem
12/29/2012-2:03am at 2:03 am (UTC -4)
There is a rumor that Jeffy boy was interested in signing Desi Arnaz but found to his surprise that the episodes of I Love Lucy he was watching dated back to the 1950’s and that Arnaz was dead.
TX
12/29/2012-12:57pm at 12:57 pm (UTC -4)
Well, he can focus on Raul, as Fidel is obviously on the DL.
srt
12/28/2012-6:42pm at 6:42 pm (UTC -4)
‘I sitll like Alvarez as the “big splash move”, and trying to build more foundation for the future.’
Agree with you and TX – this makes too much sense.
If they don’t so much as kick the tires on this kid, I think that goes towards proving there’s a lot less money to spend then they’re currently admitting.
gategem
12/29/2012-1:58am at 1:58 am (UTC -4)
Prismo I normally look forward to your articles where you present interesting statistical studies but you admit this is a small sample size and you apparently use a generic FA (whatever that is) and then you seem to use induction and rationalization to arrive at the desired conclusion. If you repeat the study using a larger sample size and take into account the quality of the FA and whether or not it targets a problem on the team as variables (and I’m not sure how you would proceed) without modeling the analysis to arrive at a pre-determined conclusion it could be interesting. But honestly why bother with that effort as it has little relevance to the Mets situation.
Prismo
12/29/2012-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
Gate, you are totally spot on. And if I was being paid by the Mets’ scouting department I’d be happy to spend a couple full-time months doing that study, hahaha.
However, the much simpler point here is to disprove some common notions that free agents = wins, without much further analysis. I’m not sure if you ever check out Twitter, but Mets beat writers are OBSESSED with the fact that the Mets are the last team to sign a free agent to a major league deal. I basically just wanted to take their assumption that it matters and tear that apart, which I think I accomplished.
The RDM community is very intelligent in general, and while some of us get frustrated with the lack of free agency movement, I don’t think any of us are tearing our hair out that the Mets didn’t sign Torres to a major league deal so we weren’t the last team to sign a guy. However, the Mets fan-base in general doesn’t necessarily think that deeply.
Clear as mud?
TX
12/29/2012-1:15pm at 1:15 pm (UTC -4)
Honestly, it is completely about quality of FA added. Which is why I am not appalled at any adds not made to the roster, though I do wish a nice trade was in the works to flip Flores and someone else into a decent high up OF prospect.
darknova306
12/29/2012-1:16pm at 1:16 pm (UTC -4)
The beat writers are obsessed with it because it’s a fact they can use to rile up the rabid part of the fanbase to generate clicks on their inane sites and articles. Also, the Mets-Twitter rage they stir up by going on about this helps make them feel relevant.
kingman 26
12/29/2012-2:34pm at 2:34 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, but mentioning Torres is SO utterly irrelevant to anything.
He was TERRIBLE, and no fans wanted him back.
This is the reddest of herrings.
AJ? Marcum? There are plenty of players who would not cost like Hamilton who could have made significant differences this year.
Prismo
12/29/2012-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
Also, thank you. I take this comment as a compliment.
gategem
12/29/2012-3:52pm at 3:52 pm (UTC -4)
Prismo, it was meant to be a compliment as you bring an intelligence that often is lacking even at some of the so called Geek sites.
kingman 26
12/29/2012-4:11pm at 4:11 pm (UTC -4)
He sure does.
He brings what is, to me, the very best combo of old fashioned intelligence AND respect for the new ways of viewing the game.
I aspire to that viewpoint.
There’s more to the game than BA and W-L records, but by the same token WAR and UZR do not explain everything.
Prismo seems to have the precisely correct combo of perspectives.
gategem
12/29/2012-4:20pm at 4:20 pm (UTC -4)
Kong the Nets firing their head coach at this point in the season was reminiscent of the George Steinbrenner’s Yankees.
Stick
12/29/2012-5:06pm at 5:06 pm (UTC -4)
I was amazed to see that in the paper the other day. coach of the month in November, and canned before January after a poor month?
talk about reactionary.
Prismo
12/29/2012-6:48pm at 6:48 pm (UTC -4)
Not surprising that Prokhorov wouldn’t stand for failure very long. I think their problem is more personnel than coaching, but you can’t exactly fire Deron Williams.
Prismo
12/29/2012-6:55pm at 6:55 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks Kingman. That means a lot to me!
I’ll tell you guys something, I almost wrote a piece a week or two ago regarding Davidoff’s hall of fame voting. He said he wasn’t voting for Piazza, but he arrived at this decision by completely and utterly misusing a couple of sabermetric statistics. I had it all sorted out in my mind – to recreate his top 10 HoF list by using the stats *correctly* (which I could do mathematically, no assumptions or anything – simply how he SHOULD have made his list using his own method). But in the end I decided I’d end up spending several hours doing this…and hell…everyone at RDM already knows Piazza is one of the best offensive catchers of all time and an obvious Hall of Famer. So f— Ken Davidoff.
What were we talking about again?
srt
12/29/2012-8:16pm at 8:16 pm (UTC -4)
LOL…
What really cracked me up about Davidoff’s reasoning was he said he’d likely be voting for Piazza next year.
So it really had nothing to do with his interpretation of stats and everything to do with he just didn’t think he deserved to get in on the first vote – IMO.
Trs86
12/29/2012-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
Scouring the names I think I just found the new Scott Hairston. My old flame Juan Rivera. RH hitter who has had good seasons and can play OF and 1b. Should come cheap and could rebound.
Trs86
12/29/2012-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
Oh and I came by the name looking at MLBTR list of lowest strikeout and highest contact guys left. He scored decent in both even during a down year so without looking maybe he was unlucky.
Stick
12/29/2012-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
still, this goes back to the question of, is the FO even bothering to put a nominal effort into trying here? DO they care about rooting out a better potential diamond in the rough in Rivera (or some other guy), or do they figure they got Hoffman, and why bother to look for someone better?
I honest to God have no clue what all those guys in the FO do to fill up the day. Can JP spend more than an hour a day working? Ricco?
I know they punted on 2013 fully, so maybe they really don’t want to be bothered, but is there any chance they are looking for guys that could be part of the rebuild and future, and trying to get some of them in now (like maybe Alvarez?)
srt
12/29/2012-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
What’s the deal with that Cuban defector Alveraz kid?
Is this someone that can be signed right now? Or does he have to wait a few months before his agent can entertain offers?
I saw him profiled on AA as a fit for this team but I haven’t seen much else anywhere else on him.
TX
12/29/2012-1:12pm at 1:12 pm (UTC -4)
I think he can be signed now. I did see where one of the defectors could not be signed until he turned 23 or 24 in January, as once he reached that age, he was considered a full FA and his signing would not affect the draft cash pool. Either way, even if it isn’t Alvarez (which it should be), there are a couple other Cuban OFs that look promising and considering they are relatively cheap and look to get long term deals (like 5 year+), the overall impact on the payroll is relatively low, when factoring in the average pay per year.
And I will say that it makes way too much sense to do this, which is why I have no faith it will happen. You sign Alvarez (which fills 1 OF spot). The following year you can spend Santana’s money on one top end SP (because he’ll prob cost less than Santana and I’ll go out on a limb and say the draft pick will prob. be protected for the following draft.
). You can roll with Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Gee, New top end SP (JJ, Garza, Lincy, Wainwright, Haren…). So really, you are looking at BP help and an OF and possibly a 2B (depending on what you do with Big Murph going forward) after getting 1 SP. Choo, Gomez, Ellsbury, Morse, Prado are all FA’s.
And this is not factoring in what they do with Flores (trade bait, turn into a 2B or OF?) and what development MDD, Lagares, Nimmo, Fulmer, Tapia, Synderwasawoman, etc. Obviously most are lower down, but as the overall prospect values rise, that opens the way to a possible trade of note
So, to summarize, they aren’t that far off (in my mind) and investing in Alvarez would be the right move for both this year and the future. Thank you. Try the veal.
srt
12/29/2012-1:18pm at 1:18 pm (UTC -4)
‘So, to summarize, they aren’t that far off (in my mind) and investing in Alvarez would be the right move for both this year and the future. Thank you. Try the veal.’
Yum…veal….
No arguments from me on Alvarez, TX.
If we don’t hear anything that they at least kicked the tires on him, it has to be b/c they’ve got much less to spend than the 20 MIL or so being reported.
Still….these are the types of investments that would actually make sense, even if they are broke.
TX
12/29/2012-1:25pm at 1:25 pm (UTC -4)
Totally agree. Even looking at Chapman or Cespedes deals, they look to be a bargin and are signed for a good many years.
Stick
12/29/2012-1:27pm at 1:27 pm (UTC -4)
with all the cuts this year, if they can’t even afford about say 5mill for a FA like this, then MLB really should repo the team since they can’t possibly operate normally.
greggofboken
12/29/2012-12:09pm at 12:09 pm (UTC -4)
I’ve gotten the sense that Ricco handles a lot of the contractual financials/operational issues. Given the rash of deferrals, buyouts, and the myseriously calculated payroll budget, I think he’s probably the one guy whos been exceptionally busy. Between all these things and trying to unload all the Dickey merchandise.
greggofboken
12/29/2012-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
His BABIP last year was .245 which speaks to your point about his being unlucky.
On the flipside his defensive WAR numbers for the past three seasons are -.8, -.5, and -1.8 (most recent first), which is poor though not quite Duda level. Maybe you could mitigate that by platooning him with Baxter, though Rivera’s splits don’t suggest that.
He’d accentuate one of the club’s more glaring weaknesses I think.
Trs86
12/29/2012-1:39pm at 1:39 pm (UTC -4)
What was Hairstons defensive numbers though? Remember if you are looking for the next Hairston… I like the fact he can play 1b too to give Ike a break instead of trotting Turner over there.
greggofboken
12/29/2012-2:05pm at 2:05 pm (UTC -4)
Hairston was -.9, -..2, +.4 for the same time period, though in fewer inniings (1640 vs 2350).
If you were to prorate Rivera’s total (-3.1) to the same number of innings as Hairston played (70%) it’s a -2.1 cumulative vs a -.7 for Hairston. And he’s two years older.
Stick
12/29/2012-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
there is a name that is a blast from the past.
I am fully on board though for not overpaying for the last flash in the pan career year guy, but rather getting the next one!
kingman 26
12/29/2012-2:30pm at 2:30 pm (UTC -4)
Eh, depends on the player, the team, the cost, and the overall context.
Marcum might be great for us–ideal really, but we cannot afford him due to payroll constraints.
While I am NOT pro-Hairston, it is ironic and somewhat sad that the Yanks are looking at him as “low cost” while we cannot afford him.
I criticized Sandy for not doing enough in terms of using his skills to receive massive value in trades. Wheeler was nice, but the Dickey trade has largely given him a pass for now. It is not his fault that he has zero money to spend and is clearly under ownership orders.
I firmly believe that AJ would have been a good 1-year stopgap to allow d’Arnaud to develop and to give this soft team of nappers some intensity and maybe add some experience at, you know, actually seeing the postseason as a participant. And I think 2 years for Marcum would ideally solidify the rotation for the next 1–2 years. Every year there are bullpen reclamation projects as well. We need one of them badly too.
Yeah, Bourn is getting older, but he could have made a huge impact on this team on offense, defense, AND in team speed.
What’s the difference really between 74–78 wins and 82+? Not a hell of a lot, and I think getting back on the winning track would be easier if we could have afforded a free agent or two.
I know it is getting more and more difficult to use mental gymnastics to rationalize and accept the fact that this team CAN NOT spend ANY money on players, but using the FA market wisely can definitely help a team.
chris
1/2/2013-1:46pm at 1:46 pm (UTC -4)
The Cuban outfielder makes too much sense…but I doubt it happens…I expect the OF to be filled with platoons until next season when Santana’s contract comes off the books …then I hope we bring in either Ellsbury or Grander son to lead off and play CF and Hart or Pence to play a corner OF spot and hit 5th
TRS86
1/2/2013-2:01pm at 2:01 pm (UTC -4)
Welcome Chris!
TX
1/2/2013-2:18pm at 2:18 pm (UTC -4)
Unfortunately, you are losing a draft pick with any one of those signings. And yes, losing a draft pick shouldn’t scare this team from pursing a FA, I’m just saying it will be factored in. Of all those, Ellsbury is prob. the best choice, but his injury propensity is not thrilling.
TRS86
1/2/2013-2:29pm at 2:29 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, you may not be costing a first round pick for the Mets considering the current holes there’s a good chance it’s protected.
TX
1/2/2013-2:32pm at 2:32 pm (UTC -4)
And if it is, they sure as Seattle is rainy better be in on a top tired FA then.
wanny
1/2/2013-2:29pm at 2:29 pm (UTC -4)
the cuban outfielder is not viewed as ready to play in MLB this year so you would have an outfield of platoons this year anyway.
and i’m not sure i would want any part of curtis granderson is a regulation sized baseball field and certainly not as a leadoff hitter.
chris
1/2/2013-1:47pm at 1:47 pm (UTC -4)
The Cuban outfielder makes too much sense…but I doubt it happens…I expect the OF to be filled with platoons until next season when Santana’s contract comes off the books …then I hope we bring in either Ellsbury or Granderson to lead off and play CF and Hart or Pence to play a corner OF spot and hit 5th