Jan 13
I’ve got something in my head brewing about Mike Piazza so I’ll address that issue later this week. But today, let’s discuss Justin Upton.
Today’s Question: Let’s say the D-Backs want just one big prospect for Upton……if you were GM, would you pull the trigger? And as a bonus question, just how much are you willing to give up for Upton?
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35 comments
Randy
1/13/2013-9:07am at 9:07 am (UTC -4)
Niese, Flores and Mejia.
Otherwise I would trade a B prospect for
OF like Heisey, CIN or Tabata, PIT
wanny
1/13/2013-9:07am at 9:07 am (UTC -4)
Why do I want to assume something I know to be untrue?
greggofboken
1/13/2013-9:38am at 9:38 am (UTC -4)
By top, I’m assuming you mean Wheeler/d’Arnaud. Wheeler for Upton straight up, sure. But they wouldn’t do that.
I would go as high as Syndergaard, Flores, Parnell/Familia.
SaltyGary
1/13/2013-9:46am at 9:46 am (UTC -4)
To get Upton Wheeler or D’A would have to be a part of the deal, and the D-BAcks don’t really need a catcher, so my answer is don’t do it.
Stick
1/13/2013-9:48am at 9:48 am (UTC -4)
I’m thinking you really mean Wheeler for Upton straight up (other than a few filler pieces?)
Probably, but not positive. I actually am not that high on Upton. Just don’t feel sure that he is as good as his rep seems to be, especially playing outside of AZ. Plus, he is not exactly a LT piece of an affordable core, since he hits FA in 3 more years, and gets expensive.
I 1/2 agree with Randy. I vehemently disagree with trading Neise for him. But I would try to trade other guys for a less-”exotic” name OF that can be around for a while.
Of course he instantly becomes their best OF. And if the thumb injury really kept him from being an MVP contender last year, but is now 100%, he could be hitting a monster prime at 26-28 (which Seattle must have been betting on). That might be enough to make the Mets a WC challenger I suppose, though hard to see 1 guy making that big a difference. And that was, of course, if he has a monster year in CIti.
SaltyGary
1/13/2013-9:56am at 9:56 am (UTC -4)
Off Topic….
Ken Davidoff and I (And plenty of others) have been going back and forth for weeks on Twitter regarding him omitting Piazza on his ballot. If you are on Twitter and are respectful he engages with fans every day, which is very cool so I suggest chiming up.
Today via twitter he admitted to our own Rusty Jr that he messed up.
I’ve been hammering him on his use sole use advance statistics, because I feel if you used that method there was no way to get it wrong. But there was, he used them wrong like so many others.
@SaltyGary Yes, but I didn’t understand that Jay takes JAWS & matches it up by position. I just used the raw data.
If you don’t know what JAWS is, it’s taking WAR and rates people BY POSITION against others in the HOF. By Position Piazza is on top, against all position pools Piazza doesn’t rate high against others like Lofton who he DID vote for.
I enjoy advance stats when I can understand what the frig they are trying to do. BUT these metrics that people create need better instructions because they can be very dangerous.
Stick
1/13/2013-10:18am at 10:18 am (UTC -4)
I think all the flak this year is going to change voting patterns. that is, unless a guy like piazza gets “outed” before next election cycle, he will get a bunch more votes. The obvious ones from the “not on the first ballot” crowd, plus more from guys like Davidoff that looked like dopes. And most of them will want to hide behind the first ballot guys!
so book your rooms now, if you want to see Piazza inducted in a Met cap in summer 2014.
greggofboken
1/13/2013-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
I agree. Mike’s book comes out, says “Wow. Sure glad I didn’t do that”, and a group of writers respond with “Good enough for me”, pat themselves on the back for having made their point and Piazza gets his votes. (Unless Maddux/Glavine support locks him out). Worst case scenario….2015.
Bonds and Clemens on the other hand are toast.
SaltyGary
1/13/2013-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
Piazza will get in I think within next 3 years. Maddox and Glavine are going to go next year will will push off some others.
Stick
1/13/2013-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
maddox yes, but I don’t think glavine gets past the first year bias. nor should he.
srt
1/13/2013-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with this. Maddox yes next year, Glavine will probably have to wait.
And good for Davidoff being big enough to admit a mistake – and publicly. Few and far between would do that.
SaltyGary
1/13/2013-10:30am at 10:30 am (UTC -4)
Tweet of the year by Rubin:
@AdamRubinESPN
Hard to believe in NY: The largest free-agent contract Sandy Alderson has awarded in 3 winters as #Mets GM: Frank Francisco — 2 years, $12M
SaltyGary
1/13/2013-10:30am at 10:30 am (UTC -4)
@AdamRubinESPN
Omar, by contrast, gave Julio Franco a two-year contract at age 47. Somewhere, there’s a middle ground.
Stick
1/13/2013-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
So tired of hearing about Omar. He was overall not that good, he is gone, move on.
though I am sure the mo-rons over at Sandyisthedevilofalldevilsandareallymeanmanthatstolemylunchmoneyized.com will spend all day discussing that tweet.
at least the flip side to Sandy so far (and as SRT would say, thank or blame the Wilpons money issues as needed), at least he has not brought in anyone that we will ever have to debate as being an albatross contract!
srt
1/13/2013-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
I have to laugh at those who are still debating Alderson’s merits based on what he did 20 years ago with Oakland, etc. Have no idea what that has to do with now.
That’s the same as assuming that Torre would suck as Yankee manager b/c he had a losing record with the Mets. Especially when we know it mostly has to do with the talent on the team and less about managerial skills.
You could compare that to a new GM – what he inherits on the big club, with both talent and contracts – what he inherits down on the farm and how much money he’s got to spend. You just can’t compare 20 years ago with now.
darknova306
1/13/2013-12:38pm at 12:38 pm (UTC -4)
What I’m sick of hearing about (other than Omar) is people whining about silly pieces of trivia like “last team to sign a major league FA”. People like to use irrelevant details like that to shit on the team, when the overall organization is healthier now than it was several years ago.
The trade with Toronto helped the team’s future more than any FA contract they could’ve handed out.
TX
1/13/2013-7:07pm at 7:07 pm (UTC -4)
My buddies recipe, dubbed Citralicious, is percolating like a champ. Brings a smile to my face and a nice dank smell to my closet.
darknova306
1/13/2013-11:46pm at 11:46 pm (UTC -4)
Mmm, sounds tasty. The aroma from an active fermenter is wonderful.
TX
1/13/2013-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
I love how its ok to base something against what Omar did when everyone knows he loved to spend for spendings sake.
kingman 26
1/13/2013-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
The Mets are not taking on Upton’s salary, and I have to respectfully say that all of this speculation on Upton without mentioning the massive economic elephant in the room is really rather bizarre.
The team could not afford Dickey–they aren’t taking on Upton’s contract.
St. Dimples IS the team’s payroll for the next couple of years.
SaltyGary
1/13/2013-11:21am at 11:21 am (UTC -4)
^^^^^ This LOL
greggofboken
1/13/2013-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
If the Mets have the $10M left that’s been cited, Upton’s at $9.7M next year. Were you to include Parnell (projected at $1.5M) Upton’s feasible, though barely so. It will preclude adding just about anyone of any value for the 5th spot or the pen.
kingman 26
1/13/2013-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
Upton’s contract calls for $14 M+ in 2014 and 2015.
You and I have a better chance to be in the Met OF than Justin Upton does. A much better chance.
greggofboken
1/13/2013-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
Santana and Bay come off (deferred payments or not, the payroll seems to be booked for ’13). Wright goes up to $20M. Niese goes up by $2M. Beyond that, nothing but arbitration cases. I think they’d be able to afford him easily.
I agree it won’t happen….partly because it just shouldn’t — he’s the wrong guy at the wrong time — and partly because of the asking price. I don’t believe it’s because of the salary.
kingman 26
1/13/2013-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
Well, for the last couple of years we have speculated on how they would spend Ollie, KRod, Beltran, and Reyes’ money once they were off the books, and we have seen payroll shrink from about $135 mil to about $90 mil. They have not spent virtually any of it on players.
Sorry, but to me, payroll might shrink to 80 mil or less. I just highly doubt they are taking on a player with Upton’s salary unless it is someone far more consistent, in terms of year-to-year production and home/road splits as well.
And if Ike has a good year, surely he will be offered a Niese-like deal, and they might look to lock Harvey up as well if he performs as he very well might.
Wright and Niese’s raises in 2014 will eat almost 1/3 of the Johan/Bay $ right there. Add in raises to Ike/Parnell/Gee if they have good years and maybe half of the Johan/Bay money is gone.
Yes, there’s also FF’s salary expiring, but he will have to be replaced.
Again, I am sorry for being a pessimist when for years I was an optimist, but I firmly believe that the front office is basically completely dishonest right now, and is simply talking about Upton as a shell game with which to fool fans. “Oh, we’d love him but we cannot trade the prospects.” Bull. They have no intention of spending $29 mil on one player in 2014-2015 with their financial picture right now.
greggofboken
1/13/2013-1:24pm at 1:24 pm (UTC -4)
Anyone is entitled to their pessimism regarding the Mets actual future spending until the club gives them evidence of behaving differently, which thus far they haven’t. I may not share that same view, but it’s understandable.
Wright’s increase next year is $9M, Niese’s $2M. The Bay and Santana money coming off is $41M (w/o factoring in the buyout money which is budgeted to this year). I don’t see how increases to Davis (projected at $2.8M this year), Gee (still at .5M I believe) and Parnell ($1.5M) are going to eat up anything like the $9M that would use up half the freed up money.
I share the concerns about Upton’s splits and erraticness. My point of contention isn’t “should they” but “could they”. I believe they could.
gategem
1/13/2013-7:57pm at 7:57 pm (UTC -4)
It should make sense that if one subscribes to political correctness he should do so across the board. Applying this concept I must urge you to change St Dimples to Mr. Dimples or Dimples the Magnificent.
TX
1/13/2013-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
I’d give up Flores, Fulmer, Mejia, Edgin and if needed, someone on the Pill type level.
I would not give up the top 3 (Wheeler, TDA, Synder-ember-smolder-smoke-fire)
srt
1/13/2013-12:10pm at 12:10 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t think there’s anyway we’re trading for Upton. Biggest reason is I think the D’Backs would want one of Wheeler, Harvey or D’Anaurd and no way SA is giving them up for Upton.
I think if he could get Upton for less they just might pull the trigger. They should have the money come 2014 to be able to afford his salary.
But like I said…pipe dream.
kingman 26
1/13/2013-12:18pm at 12:18 pm (UTC -4)
Biggest reason is Upton’s 2014-2015 salary commitment.
srt
1/13/2013-2:09pm at 2:09 pm (UTC -4)
Kingman, I will be so done with the Wilpons and this FO if they don’t open that wallet going into 2014. I’m not looking for them to spend like money is water, but all we keep hearing is the flexibility they’ll have after the 2013 season. if that’s all crap – designed to keep the fans interested – I’m leading the mob with the pitchforks.
Stick
1/13/2013-3:46pm at 3:46 pm (UTC -4)
I may have to invest in a “pitchforks, torches, and more” franchise in Flushing. Just in case, it could be a good money maker.
Hazmet
1/13/2013-6:00pm at 6:00 pm (UTC -4)
OK, my punchline for the day from the Mets:
So, I get an e-mail from the Mets this morning hawking their wares and what’s the first thing they offer… a Mets Moneyclip. Bwaa haa haa haa haa haaa.
I could hardly contain myself at the irony of it all.
Matt Mo
1/13/2013-6:28pm at 6:28 pm (UTC -4)
Flores, Fulmer, Carson, Mejia or Familia.
Nothing more
TX
1/13/2013-7:05pm at 7:05 pm (UTC -4)
Carson is really just a toss in, at this point. I think you’d need to add a touch more than that. And really, if you swapped out Carson for Edgin and even tossed in Pill, would you really say no?