We all know that Upton being traded to the Mets is a “pie in the sky” dream. The Mets have the prospects to get the deal done and certainly have a huge need. However, assuming the cost is anywhere near what the Mariners offered I can’t see Alderson pulling the trigger. So while this post is going to compare Beltran and Upton, it isn’t necessarily to say that Upton can be the Mets version of Carlos. Anyway, lets get into it:
| Beltran/Upton | Age | HR | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season 1 | 22/20 | 22/15 | 99/107 | 4.4/.8 |
| Season 2 | 23/21 | 07/26 | 69/129 | .05/4.8 |
| Season 3 | 24/22 | 24/17 | 123/110 | 5.4/3.0 |
| Season 4 | 25/23 | 29/31 | 114/141 | 5.6/6.4 |
| Season 5 | 26/24 | 26/17 | 132/107 | 6.8/2.5 |
As you can see while Beltran’s WAR numbers stayed for the most part consistently higher (due in most part to Beltran play in CF) their HR and OPS+ are very similar to each other.
I also see a lot of similarities in how these players are/were perhaps portrayed. Often they were labeled with not performing up to their potential, mental lapses, not “hustling”, not a “gritty player”. In my opinion Beltran, always unfairly labeled, was able to shed those labels from any sane minded baseball fan to where he now sits on the border of a HOF player.
This is not to say that Justin Upton is on a HOF path through age 24. Upton has been consistently good so far in his career but only has one really good and one elite type season. That being said how many 24 year-old players can say that? His 108 HR by age 24 is certainly impressive as is his 17.1 WAR total in his first 5 years. As a measuring stick, Stanton has 13.1 through his first 3 years as well as 93 HR but obviously he’s a beast. Back to my point, will Upton’s path resemble Beltran’s where at age 26 he put up an OPS+ of 132 and never looked back except for injuries? I don’t expect Upton’s WAR to jump to consistently near or over 6 again due to his defense and base-running. He also, while fleet of foot is not going to be as efficient as Beltran who is known as one of the best base-runners of his generation. However, I do think that Upton once able to put whatever the issues are in Arizona behind him can consistently be a 5 WAR player who can hit in the middle of any lineup.
Now back to the obvious, the Mets dream. Honestly, I would not be surprised to see Detroit go all in for another player. They clearly see their window as right now and adding Upton to that lineup would scream of an unfair competitive balance. However, for the Mets, if they could Santana this deal and hold out long enough they could get a steal. Remember that because of Johan’s no-trade clause the Mets were able to offer what most in baseball said was a lesser package to bring the CY Young winner in and extend his contract. To me this would be key with the Mets as well. Let it be known that you would give Upton an extension, then offer the best deal you feel comfortable with, put it out there and be patient. I could see something along the lines of Flores, Syndergaard, Familia/Mejia, Tapia/Montero and a filler being the absolute best the Mets could or would offer. It was rumored that no team was willing, other than the Mariners to offer 2 top pitching prospects. While none of these three in this package are the Mets best pitching prospect you would be getting 3 high upside pitchers and a hitter that could be close to MLB ready for your 3B hole. That’s a hefty price to pay but one that the Mets depth could allow them to do.
Is it worth that to find out if Justin Upton can follow Beltran’s path?
64 comments
Stick
1/14/2013-10:25am at 10:25 am (UTC -4)
tough call. I am not that convinced that Upton would have that kind of monster breakout run starting this year. I also have questions about the extension. 1st, so what they put it out there? AZ won’t care, and Upton has no say in where he goes (in relation to the Mets).
I also have no idea if he would even want to add say 3/60 on top of his current deal, even if the Mets offered it. But if you really think he will be a star/stud in his 25-30 prime, then somehow getting 3 years tagged onto his current deal (making it a basically reyes money at 6/100) would make the trade more reasonable.
I do think AZ won’t get the massive haul (and frankly have serious doubts that Upton is the guy to give it to, unlike Stanton who probably is), but still, it is hard to justify the Mets giving up that much of the young pitching talent they are finally stockpiling. If they do, it means the really need to hit on the ones they keep, without much safety net.
in summary, Upton should be a good player for his prime years, but will not come close to what Beltran did for the same period, and he won’t be the big power hitter you are looking for.
TRS86
1/14/2013-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
I wasn’t thinking anywhere near 20M a year. I was thinking a 6 year extension on top of what he has at about 15M a year. It would offer him all kinds of security.
As for what it would do, having a limited NTC hurts that idea for sure but having Upton willing to work out an extension with the acquiring team could very well up the prospects given.
Stick
1/14/2013-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)
he is already getting ~15 going into FA 28. Really hard to seeing him “cheap selling” himself for security, since he would have already made 40mill+ in his career, so you would think that even if the worst happened and he was out of baseball at 28, he would not starve!
I bet you would have a better shot at a 3 year big $ extension instead of a 6 year lower $, since 3 years puts him out as a FA again at 30, so young enough for 1 more mega deal.
TRS86
1/14/2013-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
Possible, but how much of a raise did Wright get at age 29/30?
Stick
1/14/2013-11:05am at 11:05 am (UTC -4)
went from about 16 to 20.
TRS86
1/14/2013-11:07am at 11:07 am (UTC -4)
Nope.
His AAV of the new contract is 17.25 with the deferred it’s around 16.75.
Stick
1/14/2013-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
don’t care about deferrals 9since that is really for Wilpon cash flow) but doruing his peak years, which would be comparable to an extension that upton would sign, he is going to be making 20mill. AAV only lower because of his age 35/36 drop.
No chance you are getting Upton to sign effectively the rest of his productive career away for 15mill/year on average.
srt
1/14/2013-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
I believe that Upton to Mariners trade deal was nothing but posturing. Are those two GM friends? Upton told them repeatedly he wasn’t going to O.K. any trade to Seattle so why go through the motions?
But let’s say that was for real….if that’s what you can get back for Upton I can’t imagine what it’s going to take to get Stanton.
And if that’s what D’Backs are looking for, we’ll be out of the running unless that prospect list comes down. No way this FO is giving up that much.
It’s my understanding Upton’s no trade clause only includes 4 teams. Besides Seattle, anyone know who the other 3 teams are? I’ve seen different lists, but so far all seem to be AL teams.
TRS86
1/14/2013-11:15am at 11:15 am (UTC -4)
Blue Jays, Cubs, Mariners and Red Sox
TRS86
1/14/2013-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
Looking at your theory, you are saying that the Seattle GM and Dbacks GM got together and said.
Dbacks GM: Hey if you offer a big package for Upton then it will increase our return for him AND it will tell your fans that you are all-in?
Too much of a conspiracy theory for me but who knows?
srt
1/14/2013-11:19am at 11:19 am (UTC -4)
Well, my conspiracy theory had less to do with the fans and more to do with your first part….letting the clubs interested know the type of return the D’Backs were looking for.
Just a thought though.
Thanks for the list. I saw somewhere that NYY was included on his no trade list but then someone debunked that, saying that was last year’s list. I didn’t know the player was allowed to redo his list every year.
TRS86
1/14/2013-11:21am at 11:21 am (UTC -4)
I am sure they can work that into their contract somehow that they have to turn in a list by a certain day. Kinda like the Krod thing?
As for the conspiracy, if we can see it and call it suspicious wouldn’t other GM’s do the same?
srt
1/14/2013-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
Yes, to your question. I just can’t see any reason to go down the road of putting together a trade like this – which usually would take much work on both sides – if Upton repeatedly kept saying he would never O.K. a trade to Seattle (which MLBTR reported).
TRS86
1/14/2013-11:33am at 11:33 am (UTC -4)
Perhaps the Dbacks thought things had gotten so bad that Upton, if compensated well, would just want out?
srt
1/14/2013-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
You could be right. I really have no way of knowing. Just really speculating.
srt
1/14/2013-11:21am at 11:21 am (UTC -4)
All this being said, I’d like Upton for the right deal.
IMO, the right deal should not include Harvey, Wheeler or D’Anaurd.
TRS86
1/14/2013-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
Agreed, it can’t. However, I am willing to go over with that deal above. Can’t give you Wheeler, Harvey or TDA but I will give you 3 pitchers with very high upside.
Q-Rod
1/14/2013-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
That deal represents a very nice haul for Arizona. I bet if it goes down that it will be for a lesser deal – at least replace Tapia/Montero with one of the Brooklyn guys. Or maybe Fulmer instead of Syndergaard. But obviously purely speculation – and faith in Sandy’s conservative bent.
TRS86
1/14/2013-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
“and faith in Sandy’s conservative bent”
Is why I think getting the deal done is a stretch. To me that deal is certainly an overpay but it’s missing that true stud that other teams are likely to offer.
Q-Rod
1/14/2013-11:49am at 11:49 am (UTC -4)
I agree that its unlikely. But I think the Mets are players for Upton. In the end, if Texas wants him then they get him (Olt is a great piece if Arizona wants a 3B), same for Atlanta if they package one of their top arms with Simmons. But I’m not sure that either of those teams would be willing to make that trade. In which case Syndergaard/Flores plus is a compelling offer.
srt
1/14/2013-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
Yup. Or include Flores as TX suggests below.
If he really can only play the corner IF, we’ve got little use for him – unless they trade Ike.
And I wouldn’t trade Ike without being almost sure Flores could take over 1st.
TRS86
1/14/2013-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
Oh I had him in the deal too SRT. IMO that’s what it would take.
That would be around the Mets #3, #6, #8 and #9. That’s certainly a hefty price but what you might have to do to make up for the fact of keeping #1 and #2. Looks a lot like the Johan package actually.
TX
1/14/2013-11:26am at 11:26 am (UTC -4)
If it can be Flores, Syndergaard, Edgin, Mejia and mabe another, heck yeah, I’d do it.
And yes, it is worth it to find out.
JUp for NYM OF!!!
Q-Rod
1/14/2013-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
Swap Fulmer for Syndergaard and I’m in. I wouldn’t trade both Edgin and Syndergaard. In fact, I hate to trade Edgin at all but I wouldn’t let it hang the deal.
TX
1/14/2013-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
I’d prefer to keep Synder as well, but I’m not sure that will get the deal done. And honestly, I think Fulmer will be = to Synder in short order. As for Edgin, I’m not sold on him being wonderful. And honestly, they should be able to find a serviceable lefty out there. Edgin isn’t a toss in, but he shouldn’t be a breaker in the deal.
The comparables are there to Seattle’s deal, if you figure on an upper pitching prospect and an upper positional prospect (flores & Synder), then two cheap BP guys with upside.
Q-Rod
1/14/2013-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
Upton is not ‘a pie in the sky dream.’ Odds are that he will be traded this offseason (After all, he was already traded once this offseason). And the Mets have the wherewithall to match any offer for Upton.
Its really just a question of where the market is for Upton and how desperate Arizona is to trade him. As you guys have said, the market is somewhere south of the Seattle offer: First, it was rejected, and, second, the very fact of it has to have further soured the Upton/AZ relationship.
Anyone could jump in on Upton, but if its just Texas (Olt) and the Braves (Simmons or a pitcher) then the Mets can match the talent without having to give up one of Harvey, Wheeler or D’Arnaud.
It’s within the range of possibility (I’m not considering the team finances but the current payroll is f’in low and projects to be lower in 2014).
TRS86
1/14/2013-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
I guess they have a chance but as I said they would have to desire quantity over quality for the Mets to bite. Giving them 3 pitchers with potential instead of the one stud.
Q-Rod
1/14/2013-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
Honestly, I can’t speculate on whom the Mets would trade for Upton. But I think the team sees him as a guy for whom it would be worth trading precious prospects. And on the other side, Arizona has painted itself into a bit of a corner – and his contract gets much more expensive aftre this year. So, now seem to be as good a time as any to jettison Upton.
srt
1/14/2013-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
MLBTR:
Diamondbacks Interested In Rick Porcello
The 24-year-old posted a 4.59 ERA with 5.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 53.2% ground ball rate in 176 1/3 innings this past season. He earned $3.1MM in 2012 and has a projected salary of $4.7MM for 2013. He’s under team control through 2015.
D’Backs looking for starting depth. Wonder if they would consider Gee, along with prospects. Wonder if SA would consider trading Gee.
I know Gee will be 27 in April. He debut in 2010, so he must have 3 years left under team control. Don’t know what his salary is but I’m sure it’s less than Porcello’s.
srt
1/14/2013-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
Obviously this is in regards to trading for Upton.
TX
1/14/2013-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
I’d want to hold onto Gee, if possible. But as I mentioned on Edgin above, if the deal included Gee, I wouldn’t let that stop the deal from happening.
srt
1/14/2013-12:24pm at 12:24 pm (UTC -4)
With very little SP depth to start the season, I’d like to hold onto Gee as well. But if Gee included got the deal done, go for it.
All for naught I’m sure since Gee ended the season on the DL and having surgery. Probably will be O.K. but until he starts pitching, that arm health is really an unknown.
I saw comments from Gee where he said, he’s ready for ST. Said first time in a long time he can throw with no pain.
Prismo
1/14/2013-1:01pm at 1:01 pm (UTC -4)
The issue wouldn’t be giving up Gee, but would be that the Dbacks would still want additional top prospects. Probably at least Syndergaard and Flores/Mejia/Familia/etc, if not MORE.
Look at the years Gee and Upton had last year. Through 17 starts Gee had 1.5 WAR. Upton finished his season with 2.5 WAR. Given, this is Gee’s best season so far, and a down year for Upton. But are we SURE it’s worth giving up 4 years of a somewhat proven starter PLUS top prospects for 3 sort-of expensive years of an outfielder?
Honestly, I don’t know. I think when a team is in the Mets’ position, it can be so hard to justify trading away several pieces for one player.
gategem
1/15/2013-1:05am at 1:05 am (UTC -4)
“Honestly, I don’t know. I think when a team is in the Mets’ position, it can be so hard to justify trading away several pieces for one player.”
Justification is not an issue when you’re dealing with a desperate fan base that is grasping at straws. Through clear eyes we see a team with potential for an outstanding pitching staff but the key word is potential. The fan base and the team must remain patient and continue developing the pitching prospects until they can throw a Giants type pitching staff at teams. Then you motivate and bring in an Upton type or two. The financial situation (hopefully) will allow obtaining these types of players in a few years. The phrase I like to use and have used previously is the one the old prospector employed to calm his donkey “patience my ass.”
darknova306
1/15/2013-1:37am at 1:37 am (UTC -4)
Gate, haven’t you been listening to the rest of the Mets fans? “A full season of Harvey” and “Wheeler coming up” will be the playoff catalyst for 2013 and every year after for a decade!!! Cy Young awards all around!
darknova306
1/14/2013-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
If by “the new Carlos Beltran” you mean “the next really awesome player to be vastly underrated and underappreciated by a large swatch of stupid moron dumbass idiot fans”, then yes… yes he could.
ColoradoMetsFan
1/14/2013-12:50pm at 12:50 pm (UTC -4)
Our farm system continuous to a big question mark, that I’d be reluctant to trade anybody. I’m afraid we’d be giving up too much and still have considerable gaps. I’d prefer to make strategic use of free agency, however near-term projected free agent classes don’t appear that Met friendly, given perceived budgetary considerations, and the competition that could ensue for what little talent there is. Glad this isn’t my decision.
On another note, I can’t tell you how much I appreciate the discourse found on this site. Now if I could only shake that dirty MetsBlog habit…:)
Prismo
1/14/2013-12:56pm at 12:56 pm (UTC -4)
I know what you mean, sometimes it’s hard to take that leap.
I doubt any Mets fan would say that the team is a Justin Upton away from winning 90+ games. But does that mean they shouldn’t attempt to make improvements to the roster through trade at the present time? Tough question.
TX
1/14/2013-1:00pm at 1:00 pm (UTC -4)
Considering the lack of postional anything in the minors, you have to make a move. JUp is a long term move, so it’s not like you’re going all in on a short term, get me over the top type deal.
And I’d say a new Couer of Wright/JUp/Davis is a solid middle of the lineup. We’ll see how TDA comes along and then a nice sprinkling of Tejada and Murph isn’t bad at all.
Prismo
1/14/2013-1:06pm at 1:06 pm (UTC -4)
3 years isn’t really long-term. It’s middle-term. And considering that everyone’s probably giving up on 2013 regardless, he’s really a 2 year player.
I still don’t think it’s a great lineup. I don’t see why we should expect Upton to suddenly turn back into a great offensive force. It’s probably realistic to expect 20-25 HR and ~85 RBI. That may be a lot better than we’re used to from an outfielder, but it’s not awe-inspiring stuff.
TX
1/14/2013-1:12pm at 1:12 pm (UTC -4)
The guy had a hurt thumb and 1 down year. Based on his body of work and age, there is no reason to think he can’t be in the 30+ and 110 RBI region.
And no, there are holes. The team lacks a true leadoff hitter. would like better production from CF/LF and SS, but this lineup looks good to me. You can prob swap Kirk and Tejada (of MDD or a better CF all together).
Tejada
Murph
Wright
Ike
Upton
Duda
TDA
Kirk
Pitcher
And you are splitting hairs on long term or not. We’ll have to settle with “mid-term”. That work for you?
Stick
1/14/2013-1:37pm at 1:37 pm (UTC -4)
I support medium term. I was going to post about that, but Prismo beat me to it.
though up above, Real talks about trying to extend him. I understand why, but really don’t think it will happen.
TX
1/14/2013-1:39pm at 1:39 pm (UTC -4)
let’s get him on the team first.
ColoradoMetsFan
1/14/2013-3:30pm at 3:30 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with you in principle, we are definitely in need of what we did not get from Jason Bay. My fear is that a deal gets done at the expense of our one area of potential strength: pitching. The fact is, you can never have enough, thus my reluctance to move any of it. Hopefully TDA will be middle-of-the-lineup worthy, but that’s a lot to expect of a rookie. I understand the pitfalls of not taking a more proactive approach, hopefully Sandy and Co. are better at this than I would be.
Stick
1/14/2013-1:38pm at 1:38 pm (UTC -4)
my summary thoughts on this:
Stanton is a no brainer guy to go hard after, cost be damned.
Upton, isn’t.
But come opening day, if Upton is in RF instead of baxter/Brown, I am going to be happy about it.
kingman 26
1/14/2013-1:38pm at 1:38 pm (UTC -4)
Give Upton an extension? What team are we following? He’s guaranteed 14+ mil in 2014 and 2015 and you think the Mets are going to basically give out another Wright contract?
Wow.
And he and Beltran are not such a valid comparison. Beltran was much better from the beginning and much more consistent from year to year. And the criticisms they’ve received aren’t exactly of the same type either.
I would like Upton, but the Mets are simply not adding that much salary right now; not sure why anyone would imagine they will.
The only player they have spent on is Wright, and for $$$ reasons have now let Beltran, Reyes, KRod, and Dickey all go, while re-investing pretty much none of that money in players.
How many years in a row will people say “they have so-and-so coming off the books!”
Yes, but they have incredible, massive debts NOT coming off the books, and dramatically reduced attendance and revenues.
Your very first sentence is clearly the reality. But for financial reasons first and foremost.
Prismo
1/14/2013-2:06pm at 2:06 pm (UTC -4)
Offensively, I think Upton at his peak is comparable to an average Beltran season.
Defensively, Beltran blows Upton out of the water. We’re talking about comparing one of the best centerfielders in the game (a few years ago) to a rightfielder with above average range but a slightly below average arm.
kingman 26
1/14/2013-2:32pm at 2:32 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, but my point is that early in his career Beltran did not have a good year then a bad one—when healthy, he was always good.
And agreed on the defense 100%.
Beltran was a great Met.
TRS86
1/14/2013-8:55pm at 8:55 pm (UTC -4)
Keep in mind the age differences when Beltan and Upton started. Also Upton has only had one “down” year. He’s not Beltran but I think they compare relatively well through 5 seasons.
kingman 26
1/14/2013-9:23pm at 9:23 pm (UTC -4)
Well, it could be argued quite well that ALL of Upton’s years aside from 2009 and 2011 have been down years.
TRS86
1/15/2013-7:58am at 7:58 am (UTC -4)
You can argue anything, doesn’t make your point valid
(I think we have learned that lesson on other blogs)
I can’t go with a 20 year old hitting 15 HR and having a 107 OPS+ in his first season semi-full season a down year.
Nor can I go with a 22 year old hitting 17 HR and a 110 OPS+ as a down year.
wanny
1/14/2013-5:02pm at 5:02 pm (UTC -4)
i’ve heard more than enough nonsense about Upton and the Mets. Ain’t happening. Period.
Q-Rod
1/15/2013-9:23am at 9:23 am (UTC -4)
Do you think that he will be traded?
If so, then to whom for what?
greggofboken
1/14/2013-5:56pm at 5:56 pm (UTC -4)
Karstens off the board. Re-upped with the Pirates for $2.5M.
“the winter of our discontent” indeed.
TX
1/14/2013-6:18pm at 6:18 pm (UTC -4)
Was going to say something along those same lines. But we are going to see the team get Marcum! cue the rolling eyes in 3… 2…
gategem
1/15/2013-1:31am at 1:31 am (UTC -4)
The team extended “embrève le magnifique” so I’m not sure what more you can ask?
The Seattle/Atlanta playoff game was one hell of a barnburner. I’m glad I didn’t root for either team. I wonder how many people suffered heart attacks?
Stick
1/15/2013-9:07am at 9:07 am (UTC -4)
The last 31 seconds watching the Seahawks, it felt like the Giants really had made the playoffs!
Prismo
1/14/2013-7:07pm at 7:07 pm (UTC -4)
To be fair, paying a starting pitcher $2.5MM is way out of the Mets’ price-range. At the moment Sandy can actually only offer IOU slips of paper and coupons to play mini-golf.
TX
1/14/2013-8:00pm at 8:00 pm (UTC -4)
Well to be fair, mini golf is enjoyable.
Stick
1/14/2013-9:43pm at 9:43 pm (UTC -4)
there are probably plenty of extra Mr. Met bucks laying around the office. Maybe they can slide those in to make up the difference?
darknova306
1/15/2013-1:33am at 1:33 am (UTC -4)
Mets need to fix the pen and the outfield, the last thing they need to do is spend their last couple dollars on a starting pitcher. Hell, at this rate Jeffy Boy will be scrounging through the couch cushions of his mansions for pocket change to afford another scrub outfielder to pair with all the other scrubs. Sigh, this team…
gategem
1/15/2013-1:56am at 1:56 am (UTC -4)
Earlier today Saul Katz came into possession of the prototype of the new trillion dollar coin:
http://courantblogs.com/dan-haar/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/HC-obama-coin1.jpg
But as usual Jeffy boy seized the coin unwrapped it and ate the chocolate filler. There went financing for the foreseeable future and beyond.
Connor O'Brien
1/15/2013-9:30pm at 9:30 pm (UTC -4)
I would be hesitant on Upton. He is CERTAINLY an upgrade, but not worth anything close to what the D-Backs are asking for him.
His home/road splits are terrible too:
ISplitGPA2B3BHRRBISBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSHome36414967618672193218164326.307.389.548.937Away36715347110411444816142368.250.325.406.731Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 1/15/2013.
Connor O'Brien
1/15/2013-9:32pm at 9:32 pm (UTC -4)
eh try this:
Split G HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Home 364 67 219 32 164 326 .307 .389 .548 .937
Away 367 41 144 48 142 368 .250 .325 .406 .731