The Mets and the Phillies are heading into the 2013 season with several question marks in their respective outfields. While both teams are fielding a young squad of players and each has his own upside, their 2012 performances leave much to be desired. Of the lot, the offensively inept Ben Revere racked up the highest WAR at 3.4, aided by inflated defensive values (take note that his UZR in CF last season was actually negative!). Listed below are the players most likely to rack up the most innings at each respective position on their team. Their age is in parenthesis, along with their OPS and WAR from the 2012 season alone.
So which team’s outfield will out-produce the other’s this upcoming season?
Phillies:
Left Field: John Mayberry (29) .695 OPS, 0.4 WAR
Center Field: Ben Revere (24) .675 OPS, 3.4 WAR
Right Field: Delmon Young (27) .707 OPS, -0.7 WAR
Mets:
Left Field: Lucas Duda (26) .718 OPS, -1.1 WAR
Center Field: Kirk Nieuwenhuis (25) .691 OPS, 0.9 WAR
Right Field: Mike Baxter (28) .778 OPS, 1.2 WAR
Wild Cards:
Mets – Collin Cowgill: has only played in 75 MLB games, may split time with Kirk in CF.
Mets – Andrew Brown: has only played in 57 MLB games, may split time with Baxter in RF.
Phillies – Domonic Brown: only played in 56 MLB games last season with a -0.2 WAR, but may split time at a corner outfield position this season or even become a starter if he performs well enough.
43 comments
TX
1/23/2013-9:54am at 9:54 am (UTC -4)
You could almost put the Astros OF out there as well and shoot for the gold/silver/bronze of suckitude. Revere is the best of the bunch and will probably push the Phils over the top, though I can certainly see a rebound from Duda (just getting to a 0 WAR would be nice) so it’s as close to a push as I’ve seen. And I would think once the defensive metrics are put into place, Young is going to be a -2.0 WAR.
Stick
1/23/2013-9:55am at 9:55 am (UTC -4)
Well, I see that Sandy was laying in the weeds. He seems to have trade starting OFs with the Phils!
Prismo
1/23/2013-10:02am at 10:02 am (UTC -4)
Pardon?
Stick
1/23/2013-10:03am at 10:03 am (UTC -4)
smoother than a 3 card monty dealer.
Stick
1/23/2013-10:02am at 10:02 am (UTC -4)
some phils notes:
- according to the paper today, they really d ointend to slot young in as the everyday RF. But, he had microfracture surgery on his ankle in November, and won’t be ready to start ST, and OD is iffy
- You left off the real wild card, Darrin Ruf. Huge HR output in 2012. not an OF, but he is trying! could easily supplant mayberry.
- Dom brown is going, at worst a platoon with mayberry.
Overall, they both suck, but I think the Phils have a better glove in CF (though he hits like Slappy McSingleton), and more offensive potential, but lousy D at the corners.
For the mets, I am struggling to see how they can pull off 3 platoons out there, so my plan now is 5 guys platooning in 3 spots, so you will always have one of the lefties starting vs. LHSP. Mostly Duda, but can rotate to the hot hand.
And Duda is the key to having the OF not be retched. If he can settle in at least a little in LF (to below average maybe?) and get any of his 2011 hitting back, he could be productive.
I also like what I saw of Andrew Brown, and in a platoon, he could be a nice piece to have.
Prismo
1/23/2013-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
Perhaps on Ruf. I don’t follow the Phillies religiously so I don’t know what their plans are, but I’d imagine he’d move up to AAA this season. Their outfield is pretty full to start the year, and I don’t think putting him on the big league squad to be a bench player makes sense. Maybe he’ll join mid-season? Again, my Phillies knowledge as to their future plans is lacking.
Stick
1/23/2013-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
he came up in September and hit some bombs, and followed that up with a big winter season someplace. He was getting strong talk as being a starter. OF is a learn on th f ly gig (I think he used to be a 3B or 1B maybe? Or one of these bats with noglove guys).
but he hit over 40 HRs last year combined. That gets you noticed. even if mostly in AA, his ML SSS was big.
so I suppose a AAA start makes sense, and he can be 1st man up when the rest of the guys prove why they suck!
srt
1/23/2013-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
Same things I’m reading on the Philly OF.
I guess they’ve really pushed Dom Brown down on their list, huh? From what I’m reading, his defense is not too good and so far his bat translated in the MLs has not made up for it. Sorta like Duda? Although Duda never projected to be as good as Brown was supposed to be for them.
Stick
1/23/2013-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
brown at least can run, and I think he is one of those guys that just “looks” like a ball player, so people are surprised when he is a klutz.
at one point, they had to get him an OF tutor. Not to track flyballs, but on how to reach down and pick up grounders!
still, he is young and has potential, but better chance IMO that Duda puts up a big year hitting, since he at least showed over a full 1/2 season that he could.
Stick
1/23/2013-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
anyway, that was getting wordy.
but to summarize what I have been saying the last few days, if they can just get 1 legit OF (CF or RF), they should actually have enough to mix/match the other 2 platoons to make the OF halfway decent potentially. And yes, I let Tx. talk me into a run at Bourn for 3 years.
But I still really want to take a flyer on Alvarez. So screw it, do both! even if he needs some MiL time, if he is for real, those 2 could go a long, long way to putting the OF back as a “real” unit!
TX
1/23/2013-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
I’d take Alvarez and Bourn. Here’s what I penned on the “other” site.
If the money is right (say 3 years, 35-40 million or even 4 years, 50 million), to sign Bourne all you are forgoing is 1 top pick (more on that below). If you are trading for Upton, you are sacrificing some top minor leaguers for roughly the same money and year commitment (3 years, 39-ish million), but you keep the top pick.
Now, as to the forgoing of the pick to get Bourn, I fear that the pick is viewed in this manner. If they sign a player below slot, that adds more money to go over slot on subsequent picks. If they figured they were going to use the whole slot amount in that spot, the point is moot and in essence trading their first round pick this year for Bourn could be worth it to them.
gategem
1/23/2013-7:04pm at 7:04 pm (UTC -4)
Did all this become apparent to you while you were changing diapers?
gategem
1/23/2013-11:52pm at 11:52 pm (UTC -4)
BTW how are Mrs. And Baby TX doing?
greggofboken
1/23/2013-11:47pm at 11:47 pm (UTC -4)
Their interest in Bourn is apparently strong enough that they’re checking w/MLB to see if they can get a ruling to classify their pick as a top 10 (which would be protected, meaning Bourn would cost the club its second round pick). The case that they make is that the Pirates pick ninth by virtue of not signing their first round pick last year and this seeding is their compensation.
I think MLB will — and should — tell them to go pound salt. But it’s interesting they’re looking that closely at the possibility.
greggofboken
1/23/2013-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
The Phils are better in a walk. With just the candidates listed here, they’re better. As Stick says, Ruf is a wild card and potentially a pretty strong addition. What’s our answer to that? I don’t think we have one. Den Dekker? Color me skeptical.
I expect interesting things from Cowgill.
Stick
1/23/2013-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
I also think Cowgill is going to have a sruprisingly good year.
gategem
1/23/2013-7:08pm at 7:08 pm (UTC -4)
I’m sorry Stick but Cowgill is a bad name for any ballplayer so he cannot possibly succeed. I would expect to see that name in lingerie football or at a rodeo.
Stick
1/23/2013-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
Andrew Brown is also a dark horse. He had some pretty respectable numbers in the minors the last few years, with 20+ HRs. And some long bombs in the majors this past season.
as a platoon guy, maybe he does hold his own. At least he got the initial taste of MLB out of the way!
gategem
1/23/2013-7:13pm at 7:13 pm (UTC -4)
“as a platoon guy, maybe he does hold his own.”
Isn’t it true that in Philly holding your own is a misdemeanor?
Stick
1/23/2013-11:30pm at 11:30 pm (UTC -4)
more like the city past time.
If you happened to see silver linings playbook ( a great movie) the tailgate scene tells you all you need to know about Philly.
Prismo
1/23/2013-12:32pm at 12:32 pm (UTC -4)
Don’t be shocked if you’re wrong! Both outfields are pretty lame. It might just take one surprising performance to put one team’s group on top.
Stick
1/23/2013-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
i would assume that both teams will have quite a bit of turnover. In the case of the Phils, that means trading for someone for the stretch run. For the Mets, I imagine just calling up another stiff from the minors.
SaltyGary
1/23/2013-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
Hahahaha. I foresee Mike Baxter grabbing a hold of the sword of truth. Flying swift and sure he will slay the Maleficent Philli pitchers in his path.
srt
1/23/2013-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
As things currently stand, there isn’t anyway you can really pick the Mets OF to be better than the Phils. It’s projecting to look like a 6 man platoon – LOL. Oh boy….this should be fun.
I’m not as high on Kirk and Valdespin as some other are. I just don’t think they’re much more than a utility or even 5th type OF, let alone starting OF. Baxter is fine for a 4th OF, but starting in RF?
Duda…no one projects his defense to be even average so if his bat doesn’t pick up, what then?
I’m really hoping they get one legitimate starting OF before the season starts.
Prismo
1/23/2013-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
You might be surprised!!!
Stick
1/23/2013-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
well, good thing is, the OF is probably the easiest area to “fix” quickly. Platoons are easier to pull off, and there are usually platoon-type OFs available (Ross, hairston, whatever).
so to go from zero to hero, a couple of moves can put you there.
1 smart FA or trade (Bourn, gomez next of season, fowler?, there are plenty of options) to nail down one spot. Finally getting someone out of the minors (may still be with another team, pending a trade? Alvarez?) to mostly fill another spot (and that could be one of the current crop working out). then the 3rd spot with a couple of platoon types.
might not be world-class, but it is not that hard to put together a functional to at least average or better OF in a relatively short timeframe.
hell, they could sign Bourn and hairston/alvarez tomorrow, and pretty much be there!
srt
1/23/2013-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
Alvarez!! Alvarez!! Alvarez!!
TX
1/23/2013-11:31am at 11:31 am (UTC -4)
Has he done his workout for everyone yet?
Prismo
1/23/2013-12:18pm at 12:18 pm (UTC -4)
No. Supposed to be at the end of the month.
Stick
1/23/2013-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
I saw something in passing the other day that it was about to happen again (this week?) no clue why it seems to be perpetually delayed.
srt
1/23/2013-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
I read the same thing somewhere.
Stick
1/23/2013-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
we travel in the same circles. I even registered at AA. Might as well post occasionally since I read it every dayl
and I see that your stalker has come back from the dead. Set a record I think. Violated every one of Joe’s recent posting guidelines in his first post back!
srt
1/23/2013-8:08pm at 8:08 pm (UTC -4)
LOL….there was no doubt……
AA kind of polices itself. If someone gets obnoxious, the regulars usually do a fine job of running them off. If not, they just keep ‘flagging’ them and the powers that be take care of it.
TKFJ got himself banned last summer. He was far from violating the commenting guidelines though – just his usual negative self that only a couple of posters took offense to. They finally let him back in though after a month or so.
darknova306
1/23/2013-8:24pm at 8:24 pm (UTC -4)
If you two are going to insist on commenting at MMO all year, despite knowing you’ll see responses from people you deeply disagree with and find offensive, please don’t whine about it over here. The “MMO commenters said this!!!” nonsense got borderline intolerable in 2012.
Mr North Jersey
1/23/2013-5:13pm at 5:13 pm (UTC -4)
Regarding the Phillies here is an article from Philly.com of one person’s view of the Phillies in 2013. Not exactly fond of some of Amaro’s decisions.
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies/Delmon-Young-and-the-potential-tragicomedy-called-the-2013-Phillies.html
Stick
1/23/2013-5:19pm at 5:19 pm (UTC -4)
for the most part, the fans down here are not fond of Amaro at all. They mostly credit Gillick for being the brains that built the team, and Ruben for spending a fortune on bad ideas and running it into the ground.
screw them all. I hate Philly and can’t wait to leave.
srt
1/23/2013-8:05pm at 8:05 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, but they were just fine when Amaro was trading the farm for the established stars that had them on top for several years.
Stick
1/23/2013-11:32pm at 11:32 pm (UTC -4)
they are very big on the entitlement mentality (the Yankee fan thing), but combine it was a “what have you done for me lately” vibe.
I can guarantee that if the Phils start off slow, the drumbeat to jettison Chaaalllleeee will get real loud real quick.
SaltyGary
1/24/2013-7:43am at 7:43 am (UTC -4)
One more off the board, LOL. I’m sorry but Hairston is either lying or lied to when he said his decision to sign with the Cubs was about playing time. If he can’t get playing time in this outfield, then he shouldn’t be in the majors. And the joke continues folks…
srt
1/24/2013-7:53am at 7:53 am (UTC -4)
Agree. He’d get plenty of playing time platooning in RF and LF, I would think.
6 MIL for 2 years obviously was the motivating factor.
SaltyGary
1/24/2013-8:07am at 8:07 am (UTC -4)
and how sad is that. Even though I prefer a starting OF then anouther 4th, a 6m 2y contract is peanuts and pretty safe money on the guy. and it would be easily trade-able.
Stick
1/24/2013-9:46am at 9:46 am (UTC -4)
I really did not care to see him back anyway. time for fresh blood.
Stick
1/24/2013-9:49am at 9:49 am (UTC -4)
discovered today that Young was not quite so cheap. There are a lot of incentives in the contract.
and this had to be a red flag 9in case you needed more). He will get an extra $600K (100k 6 times) just for making weight. Yes, always a good sign when you have to put a weight clause in your OFs contract!
also may not even be ready for OD after microfracture surgery on his ankle.
so to recap, a fat guy, ankle surgery, considered to be a terrible defender, has not played RF in 6 years, attitude issues, and some “fans” are still trying to roast Sandy for not grabbing him for a couple million $?