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Real Dirty Mets Blog
by Gonzo Will
The Mets picked up a Shaun Marcum this week to round out their rotation.
Today’s Question: How many games do you think Marcum could win? As a bonus question, where does he fit in this rotation?
1/27/2013-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
Depends on how long he stays with the Mets. Have to assume if he stays healthy by mid season he’ll be trade bait and likely gone.
So assuming he stays healthy through mid July……I’ll go with 7 games before he’s traded.
Don’t know about the rotation….4th between Harvey and Gee?
1/27/2013-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
When’s the last time the Mets traded a guy in July besides Beltran who they shopped and shopped and got a deal they couldn’t refuse? Hairston last year? Hairston in ’11? Byrdak in ‘ll? Capuano in ’11?
I think he’ll take spot #4 in the rotation. He’s number of wins will depend on his health, but it could be around 10.
1/27/2013-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
I’ll say 10 for the year.
If the Mets want to break up the lefties and alternate the looks, you could go w/a rotation of:
An alternative would be to flip Harvey and Marcum.
1/27/2013-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)
Yeah to start the year that’s what I would do. Then after off days it will all workout anyway.
1/27/2013-11:07am at 11:07 am (UTC -4)
Well, if I had to guess, I’ll say 6-5 and then DL. If health abounds, I’ll venture 11-9.
1/27/2013-12:32pm at 12:32 pm (UTC -4)
Given health concerns and the crap defense/offense/bullpen behind him, I’ll say he’s 3-5 by late June before he undergoes season ending surgery.
1/27/2013-1:27pm at 1:27 pm (UTC -4)
I will take the over bet on the 3-5 wins. I’ll even give you up to the 5 wins. How much are we betting?
1/27/2013-2:44pm at 2:44 pm (UTC -4)
I was saying a 3-5 record, not a range of win totals. Either way, I’d wager a beer on it.
1/27/2013-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
And Marcum’s a better pitcher than Gee, so I’d slot him in the 4th spot with Gee in the 5th spot.
1/27/2013-1:29pm at 1:29 pm (UTC -4)
I think he’ll win ~35% of his starts. So if he starts 32 games, probably 10-13 wins. If he starts 25 games (more likely) probably 8-10 wins.
1/27/2013-2:59pm at 2:59 pm (UTC -4)
If he can manage 30 starts (a long shot) he could win 10-12 most likely. So I will be conservative, and say 8, assuming a DL stint and 25 starts.
if he gets traded, who the hell knows?
1/27/2013-3:01pm at 3:01 pm (UTC -4)
oh, not sure of the exact order, but IMO he should be considered the 4th starter now.
1/27/2013-4:44pm at 4:44 pm (UTC -4)
I will say 11–12 wins. I am bullish on Marcum. He’ll be pitching for a massive deal, which he will get if he wins 12+ with an ERA under 4.00 based on the newly insane market.
I am sick of Johan; he can be number 3:
Anoint Niese and build his confidence; same with Harvey. These guys are the future along with Wheeler and Syndergaard. Let them be 1-2 and show them, their teammates, the fans, and the world that we are FINALLY moving past the Omar era, of which Johan the DL King is the last overpriced, injury-prone remnant.
Johan’s won 6 games in 2 years for 45 M; the sooner he is gone the better.
1/27/2013-5:04pm at 5:04 pm (UTC -4)
marcum is a wild card for sure. he could win 15, he could blow out his elbow in ST and I would not be at all surprised.
Johan, I think he can easily rebound. He was having a very good year (without enough wins to really reflect how he was doing) up until his ankle got trampled. After that, it was ugly.
but, entirely possible that one (or both) of them, if having a good year, could be traded mid season. And I would be more than fine with moving both of them out, and getting the next generation some break-in time.
1/27/2013-5:13pm at 5:13 pm (UTC -4)
Not sure I can be nearly as pessimistic on Marcum or as optimistic on El Rey Del DL. (I hope TRS likes that one as much as St. Dimples.)
Marcum started 31 and 33 in 2010-2011, and finished last year strongly after coming back from injury.
Hey, if Johan comes back and is good, well, that’s great. But really, I see him as basically another Bay/Ollie right now. Get him the f*** off of this team ASAP and make way for the future.
6 wins in 2 years. He’s a walking disaster.
1/27/2013-5:54pm at 5:54 pm (UTC -4)
at the risk of being called a ‘sabergooner”, if there is one guy where wins don’t tell the whole story, it is Johan on the Mets. talk about lack of run (and BP) support.
And he got hurt in 2011. as expected. So can’t really complain about not getting wins that year!
in 2012? Up through the end of June, he had 16 starts (missed none), and was sitting on a 6-4 record, 2.76 ERA, 93K in 98 IP, and a WHIP of 1.09.
Those are really good #s. And not all that far off from what DIckey was doing through the same 16 games, though Dickey did average 1 more IP/game.
biggest difference is the record (6-4 vs. 12-1)! But Johan was basically, vintage Johan.
But, as soon as he practically had his foot ripped off at 1B (tell terry to stop playing guys there that are not qualified), that was it. He should have come out of that game before giving up a bunch of HRs, and shut down till recovered, not rushed back.
anyway, if he duplicates that 1st half, someone will be trading for him. Ditto for Marcum.
1/27/2013-5:59pm at 5:59 pm (UTC -4)
Agree on Johan.
If not for that god awful BP in 2008, Johan might have been a serious contender for the CY award. I can’t remember how many games of his they failed to hold in the late innings.
His last game in ’08? What a performance.
And his no hitter? (Beltran foul/fair ball be damned) was a hell of a performance for a pitcher that no one knew what, if anything, he do coming back from that surgery.
1/27/2013-6:12pm at 6:12 pm (UTC -4)
last year was supposed to be his “rehab” year, so he could be fully back in 2013.
with typical Met luck, he will have a solid year, leave, and put up a couple of vintage years for some other team on the cheap.
my best hope for him (well, best hope is leading them to the playoffs, but lets assume that does not happen) is he is strong, pitches like he did through the end of June, and some team desperate for SP trades an OF prospect with actual potential for him!
1/27/2013-7:49pm at 7:49 pm (UTC -4)
MF4D–You know I think the world of you, but 2008 is FIVE years ago!
And yeah, his ONE-hitter was amazing.
1/28/2013-8:05am at 8:05 am (UTC -4)
Yes…agree about the 5 years ago.
Just a shame we spent all that money to get Johan and b/c of problems with the rest of the team surrounding him, he never really helped us to win anything.
I know he’ll never be that CY pitcher again.
As stick mentioned, I’m looking for him to be solid enough that we can trade him at the deadline, even if we have to send money along with him to get a prospect or two.
1/27/2013-7:03pm at 7:03 pm (UTC -4)
With this team, not many. But hopefully he pitches well enough to get an OF prospect in return.
Same with Johan, though there’s something to be said for Johan’s leadership and character, which you’d like to have on the team to be a role model for the up and comers.
1/27/2013-7:26pm at 7:26 pm (UTC -4)
Where the f*** have YOU been?
Hopefully enjoying nothing but wonder in your personal and professional lives!!
1/27/2013-9:28pm at 9:28 pm (UTC -4)
Got lost for a bit. Found my way back, though. And yes, life has been good on Case Street. Thank you. Wish the same could be said for our beloved team. There’s always hope.
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