I heard a rumor that the Met OF was a work in progress still (among other things, not suitable to say on a family site).
There is also an ever increasing love affair in some circles with Angel Pagan (the man, the myth, the legend). A soon to be 32 YO center fielder that now wears a uniform with a different band of orange.
So, how can the Mets expect to win more than 40 games in 2013, with only guys like Collin Cowgill in the mix, instead of superstars like Angel? Well, how about the very real possibility that Cowgill may just be the next Pagan (and warming Sandy’s cold Harvard heart, at 1/20th the cost?)
Before you scoff, consider their comparable careers at the same age. Starting with AAA history.
Pagan: 785 PAs, .269/.329/.407/.736 with 11 HRs and 38 SBs.
Cowgill: 741 PAs, .315/.384/.483/.867 with 17 HRs and 38 SBs.
They also each had part-time (100 PAs or so) ML service at ages 25/26, without any memorable results to show for it.
so, Pagan had his “break-out” year in 2009 at age 27. Coincidentally, the age that Cowgill will be in 2013, in what could be his first shot at a real ML job.
Of course, no guarantees, but so far, the similarities are striking.
15 comments
stickguy
1/28/2013-11:56pm at 11:56 pm (UTC -4)
I now like Cowgill more than I already did. Supposed to play good quality D also. I seem to recall when they first acquired him, that he had been rated as best OF (or CF) in the A’s system, and had the best arm.
can he be more than a good bench/platoon guy? Can he even be that? No real clue, but I suspect he is going to be giving a real shot to see.
I know that Brown has some fans out there too. And I really think this is why Sandy let Hairston go. not because they could not scrape up the $2mill or so to pay him next year. Call it “punting” if you want, or taking a risk they miss out on a couple of wins, but instead of committing to him to take a nearly FT job, they would rather give 2 guys that might actually have some upside a chance.
IOW, part of 2013 is giving the guys that we don’t really know about a chance to see if they might deserve to be in the majors in 2014 and beyond. When hairston would have been moved on along anyway.
and honestly, looking at the total package (and beyond the simple stats), I really find it hard to believe that Hairston instead of brown is going to make any difference to the ultimate success of the Mets in 2013.
darknova306
1/29/2013-12:13am at 12:13 am (UTC -4)
And of course Cowgirl has grotesque splits and strikes out a lot more than Pagan ever did. I’m gonna scoff very loudly at this. He might be a solid part-time platoon guy, that’s about it. Maybe a “power bat” off the bench.
TX
1/29/2013-2:57am at 2:57 am (UTC -4)
First off, you aren’t allowed by law and the MicroMac convention of 2008 to be the first comment on your own post. Just warning you before the coppers show up. Now, as to your post, Cowgill looks like a stud compared to Pagan at the same age. Here’s to hoping….
Stick
1/29/2013-9:11am at 9:11 am (UTC -4)
sorry. I am new at this.
at least a blank canvas to make fun of!
I also found it interesting to look at pagan’s stats. He had 2 pretty good years (but nothing special really) in 2009 and 2012, surrounding and preceeded by a bunch of mediocrity. And he was no big stud in the minors.
yet, there are some fans now that have built him up in retrospect to be the guy Beltran in his prime aspired to become!
gategem
1/29/2013-7:16pm at 7:16 pm (UTC -4)
Both of you are grasping at straws.
Prismo
1/29/2013-9:08am at 9:08 am (UTC -4)
http://www.miaminewtimes.com/2013-01-31/news/a-rod-and-doping-a-miami-clinic-supplies-drugs-to-sports-biggest-names/
ARod, Melky, Bartolo, Nelson Cruz, Gio Gonzalez
TRS86
1/29/2013-9:30am at 9:30 am (UTC -4)
Uh oh…. we knew Arod, Melky and Bartolo, had suspicions on Cruz but Gio… that’s not good.
Stick
1/29/2013-9:36am at 9:36 am (UTC -4)
Just assume they are all “dirty” to some degree, and stop worrying about it!
TRS86
1/29/2013-9:48am at 9:48 am (UTC -4)
Well this doesn’t scream of all were but all are… that’s the issue. I wonder if the A’s knew about Gio or if he is still getting the juice?
Stick
1/29/2013-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
like with when HGH came in, entirely possible that the bar has moved again. People can be running around looking for the “smoking needle”, while the real cutting edge cheaters have moved onto something new (that may or may not be technically against the CBA or the law).
with this much money involved, there will also be players willing to push the envelope. And providers happy to take their money to help.
srt
1/29/2013-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
Oh boy…
It’s never going to end. I predict the players are just going to keep inventing a better mouse trap.
darknova306
1/29/2013-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
Just make steroid use mandatory, and we can put this all behind us.
srt
1/29/2013-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
Yup…those that understand the stats – especially some advanced ones – are looking at this OF, projecting ti won’t be as bad as last year’s one, which was 5th worst in the league.
AA did a post on this as well.
Crossing my fingers…..
gategem
1/29/2013-7:25pm at 7:25 pm (UTC -4)
The more you truly understand the mathematics the more you see the weakness in the algorithms but the easier it is to confuse those less proficient. Let’s hope we don’t fall off the horse trying to grasp at the brass ring.
kingman 26
1/29/2013-1:51pm at 1:51 pm (UTC -4)
Wow. Thin ice my friend, VERY thin ice.
You be dreamin’ on this one.