Michael Bourn is a very good player. No, he’s not a superstar, but he’s a 2-time all star, has won 2 Gold Gloves, led the league in steals 3 times, and just turned 30 years old. He’s a great center fielder, and a good leadoff hitter.
His OBP will never lead the league, but it is indeed good; for his career it is .339, which is .003 lower than Jose Reyes’. In addition, his OBP is skewed a bit by the .288 in 2008—for the last 4 years it is right about .349. His .348 last year was 22nd in the entire NL. That OBP with his speed is more than adequate for a leadoff hitter.
And yes, he has played in hitter’s parks, but his splits are not at all severe. His numbers might come down in Citi Field, but his defense would almost certainly more than make up for this. His speed and range in center field would dramatically transform what right now has the potential to be a mediocre outfield defensively and a potentially historically horrible one at the plate.
If Boras wants 5 years and $75M for Bourn, it is a non-starter. That’s Omar money and the kind of money we all should hope is reserved for a player at the age and level of a Beltran, and Bourn, while very good, does not fit that profile.
There is also the issue of the draft pick. Picks around number 11 can indeed provide great players. In the last 22 years, the 11th-13th picks have yielded Andrew McCutchen, Max Scherzer, Jered Weaver, Jay Bruce, Nomar Garciaparra, Billy Wagner, Matt Morris, Joe Saunders, Manny Ramirez, Paul Konerko, and Aaron Hill. That’s a lot of talent. But it is also 11 good-to-great names out of 66 picks. So the chance of snagging a star with the 11th pick is indeed pretty slim.
The feeling here is that Bourn would be pretty close to ideal for this team for the next 2—3 years. The Mets play in a tough pitcher’s park, and a player with speed and great center field skills is more valuable in a park like Citi than in some others. The Mets also quite clearly are again building a team which will be centered around and anchored by starting pitching; young starting pitching. Niese, Harvey, and Gee will likely begin the year in the rotation, with Wheeler almost certain to join these three at some point in 2013. Having someone like Bourn out there for the next few years to run almost everything down would not only save runs, but could do a significant job of building the confidence of these young pitchers by letting them know they might be able to take a few more risks with a lightning-fast, sure-handed center fielder. Moving Kirk to a corner would turn the outfield from a defensive liability into a strength instantly.
Word is also that Bourn hustles every day, all day, and to the last day of the season. Every Met fan who has watched the last few years of Met baseball knows that this trait will be very welcome down the stretch regardless of how the season unfolds.
Yes, a speed-based player like Bourn could decline quickly, but, again, he just turned 30 and projects to have several years left in his prime. And yes, a player with minimal HR power who plays CF is definitely more susceptible to quick/severe decline in value when he loses a step or two. He’s not going to hit 25 HR to compensate for fewer legged-out hits and stolen bases. And losing speed in center field surely would affect his game more than it would if he was a SS or a corner OF. So when he does slow down, his value will shrink somewhat significantly.
But that seems unlikely to happen in the next few years. If Bourn could be had for 3 years at maybe $13—15M per, or 2 years at 15M with a club or mutual option for a 3rd year, the Mets should jump at the chance.
Alderson made a deal which could turn out to be outstanding when he traded Dickey, he signed a potentially excellent 4th starter in Marcum, and all of the bullpen moves combine to give the team a really nice collection of arms from which to try to build a competitive bullpen. It’s been a far better offseason than many of us expected.
But the outfield, speed, team defense, and the leadoff spot all remain issues, and signing Bourn could instantly impact all of these areas. This is what really points to Bourn being an ideal fit right now when one considers what the team needs and the dearth of outfield prospects in the minors. Bourn is more valuable to the Mets, all things considered, than he would be to many other teams.
The feeling here is that Michael Bourn should be signed, even if the draft pick is lost, as long as there is not more than a 3-year commitment made. The offseason moves have improved this team’s outlook for 2014-2015, and should the bullpen overachieve and d’Arnaud and Wheeler seriously contribute in 2013, the team could even have a shot to show serious improvement this year. Signing Bourn and adding his skills would be a tremendous shot in the arm for the team in several areas and would put to rest the notion that the team is too financially challenged to compete.
If Bourn can be had for a 2-3 year commitment at no more than about $15M a year, Sandy Alderson will have had an offseason that would, especially when one figures in dollars and trade chips, have to be considered to be in the B+ to A- range.
A Comment From Mr North Jersey
Just wanted to add to Kingman’s post for comparison purposes a look at some batting 1st splits.
2012 Batting 1st Comparisons
| 2012 Batting 1st Stats | MLB | A.L. | N.L. | NYM | R. Tejada | M. Bourn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearance | 22526 | 10524 | 12002 | 748 | 361 | 698 |
| At Bats | 20357 | 9486 | 10871 | 678 | 338 | 620 |
| Batting Average | .261 | .266 | .257 | .258 | .293 | .273 |
| On-Base % | .324 | .329 | .319 | .323 | .334 | .346 |
| Slugging % | .391 | .403 | .382 | .354 | .358 | .390 |
| On-Base Slugging % | .715 | .732 | .700 | .677 | .692 | .737 |
| Runs | 2961 | 1433 | 1528 | 94 | 38 | 95 |
| Hits | 5310 | 2521 | 2789 | 175 | 99 | 169 |
| Doubles | 1051 | 493 | 558 | 34 | 19 | 26 |
| Triples | 199 | 77 | 122 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| Home Runs | 403 | 217 | 186 | 9 | 1 | 9 |
| Runs Batted In | 1738 | 890 | 848 | 47 | 18 | 56 |
| Stolen Base | 815 | 372 | 443 | 14 | 2 | 41 |
| Caught Stealing | 279 | 111 | 168 | 9 | 2 | 13 |
| Base on Balls | 1756 | 845 | 911 | 59 | 19 | 69 |
| Strikeouts | 3896 | 1825 | 2071 | 144 | 46 | 155 |
44 comments
greggofboken
2/5/2013-8:40pm at 8:40 pm (UTC -4)
If you could get Bourn at 3/$39M AND not lose the first round pick, I’d do it.
Chris Young hits free agency after this year unless the A’s pick up his option for $11M. I could see him as a more affordable, more time-appropriate option.
I just can’t get behind this club dropping its first round pick for a player this year unless he was a unique talent….or it was a real bargain.
I like Bourn quite a lot. And I think you’re quite generous to the defensive capabilities of our outfield as currently constructed.
srt
2/5/2013-9:10pm at 9:10 pm (UTC -4)
Excellent points, Kingman.
My only disagreement is that first round draft pick. If we could somehow sign him AND keep that pick – especially if we can do it for no more than 3 years guaranteed – I’d be happy with the off season.
AA’s Chris McShane has an article up on AA outlining the Mets history of their first round draft picks and their success – or more to the point, lack thereof.
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2013/2/5/3954468/mets-draft-pick-michael-bourn-new-york
wanny
2/5/2013-10:02pm at 10:02 pm (UTC -4)
push comes to shove i can see the m’s topping 3/40ish because they are in a similar spot as the mets but appear more desperate in their actions.
that said, while i am not a big fan, kingman makes the idea of signing bourn to a 3 yr deal sound very rational.
Stick
2/5/2013-10:03pm at 10:03 pm (UTC -4)
still ambivalent about him. But I still don’t see them forfeiting the 1st round pick, along with the 2.6mill or so that goes along with it (draft pool money).
just the D, that they can get largely from Dekker for sure, and probably close to him from the other guys. At least good quality.
or just let Spin run around like a lunatic and hope he is in the same neighborhood as the ball most of the time. that could be fun.
Man, they need a RH corner OF with some pop. Better hope like hell Brown comes through!
srt
2/5/2013-10:36pm at 10:36 pm (UTC -4)
‘or just let Spin run around like a lunatic and hope he is in the same neighborhood as the ball most of the time. that could be fun.’
LOL…
Stick
2/5/2013-10:42pm at 10:42 pm (UTC -4)
no l’ing. I’m serious here. Deadly serious. Spin for CF in 2013!
darknova306
2/6/2013-2:04am at 2:04 am (UTC -4)
Why not, indeed! I love watching at-bats that last 2 seconds.
Stick
2/6/2013-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)
Keeps the game moving at least.
TRS86
2/6/2013-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)
Hey it’s much longer than 2 seconds. He usually fouls off the first pitch and then steps out to readjust his chains (ducks).
TX
2/5/2013-10:57pm at 10:57 pm (UTC -4)
Good post kong. TX for Bourn fan club heartily approves.
Barbella
2/6/2013-12:16am at 12:16 am (UTC -4)
I hear ya; but, just keep thinking, I can’t give Braves my 11th round pick.
Isn’t Wilpon buddies with Selig? MLB’s fault we got kicked out of Top 10 protected pick.
I’m sure we can work this out? Otherwise, I’d rather suck in 2013.
Stick
2/6/2013-12:24am at 12:24 am (UTC -4)
I think they have a chance at that with or without Bourn
and at least the Braves don’t get the pick. the Mets lose it, but the Braves only get a sandwich pick.
srt
2/6/2013-8:27am at 8:27 am (UTC -4)
Oops…didn’t see your response first.
Looks like we agree.
srt
2/6/2013-8:26am at 8:26 am (UTC -4)
If I’m reading the rules correctly, the Braves do not get that 11th first round pick. They get a pick in the supplemental round.
darknova306
2/6/2013-2:04am at 2:04 am (UTC -4)
Great article, Kong. I completely disagree with and respect it.
The defensive argument is a non-starter for me, cause the Mets have several options in-house that are plenty capable of providing top notch defense in CF at a tiny fraction of the price. Also, when was the last time a young pitcher’s development through the minor leagues was completely destroyed when he got to the majors and had a non-stellar defensive CF? I’d wager “never”. Put Den Dekker in CF, and Kirk in RF. That could “turn the outfield from a defensive liability into a strength instantly”. So defense is not a legit reason, to me, to give Bourn a contract.
Your argument about the draft pick just doesn’t make logical sense to me. Saying that a certain pick in the draft has lead to a certain number of players of a particular caliber over such and such a time-frame seems to transcend ‘cherry-picking’ to me. That has exactly zero predictive value for the future, and no rational front office should ever use that reasoning to justify giving up a draft pick for a non-star. You give a number of 11 out of 66 of the 11th-13th picks for the last 22 years become ‘good to great’ players. 16.67% is a pretty damn good rate compared to any other picks the Mets will have this year. In fact, it’s a lot better than the 0% chance that Bourn makes a playoff level impact during his contract. I’ll take the pick, thanks.
“Word is that Bourn hustles every day, ….” That’s a non-argument. Speculative, esoteric, nonsense. Just like “un-clutch” and “professional hitter”. Completely meaningless as an argument for a contract for anyone.
And based on NJ’s comparison at the end of the post, the difference between Bourn’s 2012 and the Mets’ leadoff spot for 2012 doesn’t seem on par with $15M and a 1st round draft pick. Not unless you’re playing fantasy baseball where stolen bases are crazy valuable.
No thank you on Bourn. If you add in losing the draft pick… no fucking thank you on Bourn. Cheers!
TX
2/6/2013-2:25am at 2:25 am (UTC -4)
Top notch D while striking out every 3.9 and every 3.2 times at bat (Kapt K and MDD) can be considered defensive replacements only after the 7th inning, as that’s about the only value they have to the team.
I apologize if I come off like a jerk. I’m sleep deprived and the batch of beer I tested came out crappy with the carbonation. Frick. Happy happy, joy joy.
gategem
2/6/2013-4:17am at 4:17 am (UTC -4)
I heard the State of Washington has an opening for a marijuana consultant and is paying $100K to the right candidate. So forget the beer and pick up the weed.
TX
2/6/2013-9:26am at 9:26 am (UTC -4)
Only 100K? Forget that then.
kingman 26
2/6/2013-8:55am at 8:55 am (UTC -4)
Thanks for reading Dark.
Den Dekker was atrocious offensively in AAA and I believe is 25. He may not be able to hit .200 in the majors.
Kirk may or may not recover the form he showed briefly last year—he was atrocious before being sent down. Saying we should just start these two is, at this point, a massive and tremendous leap of faith which may or may not have a remote chance of success.
And as for the pick, I think we took Nimmo and Cecchini 12th and 13th, right? Does either project to be even close to Bourn right now? To even necessarily be MLB everyday players? Not sure on that count.
As for the hustle? I totally disagree. This team has quit and mailed in the last 6–8 weeks of the season every year since 2009—different managers, different GMs, different players, same lame and unacceptable result. With all of the kids around, a pro who never slacks can be of huge importance. Not saying Bourn is on the level of a Keith Hernandez or a Jason Kidd, but players like that lift the level of effort of everyone on a team.
And SB are indeed debatable in terms of their value, but for a pitching-based team with a lot of very slow players, every extra base could indeed have great value.
Again, while I am not saying he is a superstar, I think there is a truly demonstrable case here that Bourn’s skills and game uniquely match the Mets’ needs right now.
Stick
2/6/2013-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
does it make a difference to you that Bourn was terrible down the stretch in 2012 (when his team actually needed him?)
for the last 6 weeks, a .565 OPS and a castillo-ish .263 slg%.
Hey, bad finishes happy, right?
wanny
2/6/2013-4:20pm at 4:20 pm (UTC -4)
FYI re Nimmo — Keith Law had him on his just missed the top 100 list. Not bad at all for a guy with so little experience. But as I’ve said, he’s shown a very advanced feel for strike zone control at an early age — a rare quality.
Prismo
2/6/2013-9:01am at 9:01 am (UTC -4)
How did your last sentence get through the word filter? Are we really not blocking the f word of all things? lol
kingman 26
2/6/2013-9:05am at 9:05 am (UTC -4)
We really should be. I love profanity as much as the next guy, but there should be blocking of stuff like that so we do not start to look like The Core over here.
Kids definitely read Met blogs.
Prismo
2/6/2013-9:15am at 9:15 am (UTC -4)
For the record….Kirk, Den Dekker, Bourn…it doesn’t matter. As long as Duda is butchering left field our outfield is a liability.
srt
2/6/2013-8:29am at 8:29 am (UTC -4)
Interesting tweet:
Mets_FeverMets_Fever: Last time mets beg for players (relievers) and didn’t get season tanked sandy said he learn psych impact of doing nothing
Must be referring to last mid season, which RA was also vocal on.
Prismo
2/6/2013-9:02am at 9:02 am (UTC -4)
Did Cerrone write that tweet? My god.
kingman 26
2/6/2013-8:49am at 8:49 am (UTC -4)
Thanks for reading and for the comments!
I do think some of you are dramatically overstating this draft pick. Sure picks are important, and building from within is wonderful.
But this is not the NFL or the NBA, nor is this a top 3 pick.
Would we rather have Nimmo or Cecchini than Bourn?
I don’t think so.
Prismo
2/6/2013-9:04am at 9:04 am (UTC -4)
It’ll be “funny” when the Mets finish with the 11th worst record next season and everyone wants them to sign Hart/Pence anyway and forfeit the pick.
Prismo
2/6/2013-9:06am at 9:06 am (UTC -4)
That said, I love Nimmo and Cecchini. If we’re talking about long-term growth as a system, they’re pretty dang important. Straight up you don’t give up one for Bourn, but you’re talking giving up Nimmo and whatever $15M/yr buys you over the next ~4 years. It’s a steep price for sure.
kingman 26
2/6/2013-9:19am at 9:19 am (UTC -4)
Not sure I share the enthusiasm for those guys, but I am not a very close follower of the low minors. Seems like Nimmo showed some game, but also a lot of flaws, but yeah, having not played HS ball he can be expected to be raw.
I just think it’s not too steep a price IF the team really can spend again in 2014 as I feel Bourn can help for 3 years, and the team should be ready for serious competition by 2014.
TRS86
2/6/2013-9:07am at 9:07 am (UTC -4)
Nice article. I think that the draft pick thing is more than the fact that you might hit on the #11 prospect. What it does is make your system look better and give you more chips to trade. Perhaps you are able to trade for that power hitting RH OF by trading Nimmo and this pick as a PTBNL or this pick if a RH pitcher allows you to trade Nimmo and Fulmer… It’s just about the chips. But keep in mind also that with this stupid system you also lose the money associated with that pick. Of course the Mets could then in turn invest that money in the IFA market.
kingman 26
2/6/2013-9:16am at 9:16 am (UTC -4)
Thanks Chief.
All fine and salient points, but to me, the point is to win at the MLB level, which I am sure we all agree upon.
I guess I am seriously enthused with the additions of Marcum and the various relief options, and if they work out and d’Arnaud and Wheeler can seriously contribute, 2013 could be vastly different from what we had been expecting.
And sorry to belabor the point, but, again, I just feel that Bourn is absolutely unique in terms of filling so many holes/needs for this team at this time, i.e., speed, defense, leadoff hitting, and, with apologies to Dark, hustle and leadership.
TRS86
2/6/2013-9:21am at 9:21 am (UTC -4)
To me with our without Bourn our biggest need will still be a RH hitting RF.
kingman 26
2/6/2013-9:31am at 9:31 am (UTC -4)
But who? I guess part of my argument is that Bourn is very available, and we don’t have to lose any of our prospects…
TRS86
2/6/2013-9:55am at 9:55 am (UTC -4)
I don’t know, I was looking at that now. It’s hard to say because it could even be a player like TDA who is in the minors now.
I understand the need to upgrade, I just don’t think Bourn makes us that much better. If he can be had for cheap and doesn’t cost a pick, I am all for it. But as I said the biggest need is still a RH hitting RF with or without Bourn.
I think between Kirk, DD, Cowgill, etc we can solve CF with a decent defensive guy who has a little pop. RF? it all hinges on Brown
TX
2/6/2013-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
Kong, there really isn’t one. Of all the teams out there, the only ones I can see making a trade would be:
- Twins for The Hammer and or Plouffe. They stink and can use some talent. Said Hammer or Plouffe will cost a bunch though, as the Hammer is only signed at 7 mil per for this and next year, which is a bargain, and Plouffe is only Arb Eligible in 2014.
- Milwaukee for Hart (who is a FA next year and if they lose Braun, they’ll be in the outhouse for this year for sure).
- Tabata could be an option, but while he has promise, he has not much else.
- Maybe there is a fit in Chicago (either team), but I don’t see it. Cubbies are bad and don’t have much we’d want the Mets to go after and the White Sox aren’t in a blow it up mode. Though Rios or Viciendo are enticing. It seems they could have a need at 3B, with Flores fitting the bill, but I don’t know enough about that team to say there is a match there.
- I could see making a run at Colorado, for Fowler or even CarGo, but gutting this team of prospects for anyone but Stanton really doesn’t make sense at this point. I will say that Fowler will be cheaper, for sure, but that’s still not saying it wouldn’t cost Familia and Flores to start.
- Oakland has some surplus, but it seems they have finished making moves for now.
- Boston I have no clue on, as they seem to be retooling the team, so I can’t see them jettisoning a power hitting OF type. And other than pitching, they have a promising young 3B in Middlebrooks and another in the minors if memory serves. So, this seems like a bad match up for the Mets.
After that, there are teams that have absolutely nothing to offer (FLA, HOU, CLE, SD, etc.) or are not looking for prospects (LAD, LAA, WAS, NYY, etc.), and that is really all the Mets have. Righty SP prospects and a 3B prospect.
TRS86
2/6/2013-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)
But as I say in the next post. Regardless of Bourn you STILL have to address this issue. It’s the biggest problem with or without Bourn. There’s a possibility that MLB ready guys like Kirk, DD, V-Spin, Cowgill are able to hold down a decent CF. In RF for RH bats we got uh… and Brown.
Prismo
2/6/2013-9:14am at 9:14 am (UTC -4)
So the Mets may give him 4 years, but Boras says he has a better offer. Let me just call BS on that. Boras is so full of it. I’m sure Sandy realizes that.
TRS86
2/6/2013-9:15am at 9:15 am (UTC -4)
Where did you hear this?
Prismo
2/6/2013-9:16am at 9:16 am (UTC -4)
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/bourn_hunt_following_familiar_game_d9Xk40B2wFGXcHDZNan6zM
kingman 26
2/6/2013-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
NY Post via Cerrone…
TX
2/6/2013-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
I agree. This is going to go all the way up to ST, if not into it.
greggofboken
2/6/2013-9:48am at 9:48 am (UTC -4)
There is a certain amount of satisfaction watching Boras sweat this all out with Bourn and Lohse. I wonder if anyone will ask him what aisle it is he thinks he’s shopping in.
TX
2/6/2013-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
If some one asked him that, he’d probably quip about shopping in whole foods, so no matter what aisle he’s in, it’s gonna be expensive.