The RDM top prospect list continues with 41-45 today. You’ll want to pay close attention to the first guy we look at today, as well as learn the names of the pitchers we cover. Let’s get to it:
45. Vicente Lupo, OF – This is a name you’re going to want to learn. Lupo isn’t higher on my list because he’s never played stateside, but his numbers as an 18-year old in the Dominican Summer League were insane: .343/.500/.608 with 10 homers, 3 triples, 18 doubles, and 12 stolen bases on 19 attempts. He also drew more walks (46) than he had strikeouts (45). He’s obviously far away from the big leagues, but he’ll be one of the most intriguing prospects the Mets will have in short season ball this summer, with the GCL being the most likely destination, but Brooklyn being a possibility if the Mets want to challenge him.
44. Akeel Morris, RP – What’s Morris still doing in the top 50? Good question. He’s been in the system for three seasons and he’s already been moved to the bullpen, hasn’t been promoted to Brooklyn, and is coming off a season with an ERA just a hair below 8 in the Appalachian League. Still, it’s tough to completely give up on him. Part of the reason is because I wrote my first RDM piece about him: http://realdirtymets.com/2010/11/19/how-i-wish-for-akeel-morris-to-succeed/. But also, he still has an electric arm, and while the move to the bullpen was a demotion, Morris improved tremendously after the move. He struck out 27, had an ERA of 1.13, and a WHIP just over 1 in 16 relief innings last year, as opposed to the 12.90 ERA and WHIP close to 2 he recorded as a starter. Pitching from the bullpen will limit his innings and slow his development some, but if he can work on his control, develop a second pitch, and continue to get batters out working from the ‘pen, he’ll have a chance to move up in the farm system.
43. Luis Cessa, RP – Cessa is a young guy with a live arm, coming off a good season in Brooklyn, in which he had an ERA of 2.49 in 13 starts. His strikeout rate wasn’t great, but his WHIP was just a tad over 1. He’ll be 21 in April, so he’s right on schedule, but right now he doesn’t have much in his arsenal outside of his fastball, but it’s a good fastball with nice movement, so it’s a good place to start.
42. Hansel Robles, RP – The Mets added the 22-year old Robles to their 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule-5 Draft. This was after Robles had an incredible year at Brooklyn, going 6-1 with a 1.11 ERA in 12 starts. The Mets protected Robles, in large part, because of the Alderson administration’s emphasis on pitchers that throw strikes, but other than that, there’s not much to get too excited about regarding Robles. He’s 5’11’’, so he doesn’t have the body to remain a starter long term, and while he can throw in the low to mid 90’s, he didn’t have a high strikeout rate last year, and at 22, he should have been dominant against New York Penn League hitters. That’s not to say Robles isn’t a guy to watch, but his ceiling isn’t all that high, and he’s never even pitched at full season ball, so it was a rather questionable move for the Mets to protect him at this point in time.
41. Armando Rodriguez, RP – Rodriguez made a seamless transition from starter to reliever last season, giving him a chance to break into the big leagues as a middle reliever at some point this season. In AA last year, he had a 1.1 WHIP and struck out a batter per inning, which is what you like to see. The ceiling isn’t high, but he throws hard enough, has a decent repertoire, and has been a productive pitcher for his entire minor league career. The simple fact that he has a chance to pitch some major league innings, as early as 2013, is enough to put him on the list.
22 comments
Stick
2/5/2013-9:00am at 9:00 am (UTC -4)
Lupo is definitely the name to watch, and the only guy on this list IMO that has the potential to actually become something special. Huge bust rate of course from where he is at, but it does seem the upside is there.
I guess at this point in the rankings, that is a big step up from most of the filler/organizational guys you find (like the rest on the list).
wanny
2/5/2013-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
“He’s 5’11’’, so he doesn’t have the body to remain a starter long term”
sounds like an awfully definitive conclusion. You could equivocate that by saying he “may not have the body.” Otherwise, Johnny Cueto, Tim Hudson, Pedro Martinez, Gio Gonzalez, Tim Lincecum, Ron Guidry and Whitey Ford will tell you where to go for calling them shorties.
Bryan
2/5/2013-11:38am at 11:38 am (UTC -4)
As a shorty myself, I certainly did not mean to offend. For the most part, pitchers at 6′ or under struggle to carry a pitching load of 200 plus innings year after year, and all the pitchers you named are very rare talents. Of course, you are right, I certainly could have phrased it better.
Later on the list, I go on the record saying that I believe that Rafael Montero could end up being an exception and remain a starter long term despite his smaller size.
wanny
2/5/2013-1:46pm at 1:46 pm (UTC -4)
By the way, despite my nitpickings and distaste for stereotypes, I am as appreciative of the others of the work you do here,
kingman 26
2/5/2013-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
Bryan-
As someone who does not follow the low minors very closely, I truly appreciate this series—just great work, and a great contribution to the site.
Thank you sir!
Prismo
2/5/2013-11:09am at 11:09 am (UTC -4)
I concur. I have heard of pretty much no one on these lists, so it’s nice to familiarize myself (and then forget again within 2 weeks…).
Bryan
2/5/2013-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
Thanks for the kind words guys!
srt
2/5/2013-9:01pm at 9:01 pm (UTC -4)
Let me add my ‘Ditto’ for the great work you bring us on the minor toddlers.
gategem
2/6/2013-2:57am at 2:57 am (UTC -4)
I want to add my appreciation for the great work you do here. Also, I concur about the importance of size in a pitcher. I was a shorty and as a youth (or is it yoot?) I threw hard for a limited time before my arm and elbow went to hell on one pitch. Even though I tried hard to use my body to save my arm it was a matter of time before I had problems. BTW I still have problems lifting my arm above my head.
Prismo
2/5/2013-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
Why is no one discussing baseball here!? THE METS ARE SORT OF TALKING ABOUT MICHAEL BOURN MAYBE.
TX
2/5/2013-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
Because it’s TX for Bourn and everyone else saying NOO!!!!!
TRS86
2/5/2013-11:13am at 11:13 am (UTC -4)
Make a new post on Bourn… my computer won’t let me access the dashboard…
Stupid firewall.
darknova306
2/5/2013-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
What more needs to be said about Bourn? Can we just laugh at the Wilpons wanting a casino next to Citi Field? The irony there is funny. Bourn has been played to death.
Prismo
2/5/2013-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
I made it!
wanny
2/5/2013-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
Please don’t make another post about Bourn.
And Dylan Bundy also stands in at 6’0″ even.
SaltyGary
2/5/2013-12:54pm at 12:54 pm (UTC -4)
Law’s top 100 came out today:
#13 Wheeler – 2012 Ranking #27
It’s kind of ironic that the Giants won two World Series in three years, but the trade that sent away their best prospect in 2011 (Wheeler for Carlos Beltran) didn’t so much as contribute to a playoff appearance.
Wheeler mopped the floor with Eastern League hitters before a late-season promotion to Triple-A. He’ll pitch at 91-96 and touched 98 in a brief stint at the Futures Game. He has an out-pitch curveball up to 80 mph and a straight change that is probably too hard to be truly effective, with lefties posting a .386 OBP against him in Double-A. Wheeler takes a long stride toward the plate with big hip rotation to generate arm speed, and he pitches very aggressively with the fastball.
If he can improve his feel for the changeup, either taking a little off it or adjusting his grip to give it some life, he has a chance for three 60-grade pitches or better on the scouting report — along with a durable build and the control to pitch in the majors right away, which would make him no worse than a solid No. 2.
#14 Travis d’Arnaud – 2012 Ranking #6
Speaking of players who can’t stay healthy, d’Arnaud hits for average and power, throws well, handles pitchers well — and gets hurt at least once a year, reaching 400 plate appearaces in a season just twice in five years. Injuries to his knees, back, finger and more have kept him off the field.
He has plus raw power, thanks to good hip rotation and a big finish to his swing, giving him 25-30 homer potential if he can ever play a full season. He has solid hand-eye coordination for contact but doesn’t walk much, so he might peak as a .280 hitter with a .330-.340 OBP, buoyed more by his power than anything else. His defense has improved substantially since he was first drafted by the Phillies, with throwing the strongest aspect of his game.
Everything about his game is ready for the majors or close to it, but he has to show he can handle a full season without hitting the DL: A player who plays like an All-Star for just 80 games a year but spends the rest in the trainer’s room has value but will always be perceived as a disappointment.
# 97 Noah Syndergaard – 2012 Ranking UR
Syndergaard was part of the trio of starters for the Blue Jays’ low Class A Lansing affiliate last year who all made this list, albeit now for three different organizations. (Syndegaard was traded to the Mets in the R.A. Dickey deal, while Justin Nicolino was dealt to the Marlins in the Jose Reyes-Josh Johnson blockbuster. Of the three, only Aaron Sanchez remains with Toronto.)
Syndergaard has a very clean, easy arm action with a fastball in the mid-90s, and an above-average changeup with pretty good arm speed, all with the size of a guy (6-foot-5, 200 pounds) who looks like a front-line starter. Finding a consistent, average breaking ball has been an issue for Syndergaard since he entered pro ball, with reports this year grading it as average at best, and often coming in below that or saying it came and went.
He’ll pitch at 20 years old this season and has just 176 pro innings behind him, so there’s time to find a consistent third pitch, but it’s not a great sign that two-plus years in Toronto’s system didn’t produce it yet. At worst he should be a solid fourth starter, very durable with above-average control, and still has that No. 2 starter upside if the curveball comes along.
wanny
2/5/2013-1:47pm at 1:47 pm (UTC -4)
Interestingly, while some others in the prospects media prefer Syndergaard over Sanchez, Law has Sanchez ranked much higher (I think). So far Syndergaard’s performance has been slightly better due to his better control.
3doza33
2/5/2013-2:36pm at 2:36 pm (UTC -4)
How do u put Akeel Morris over lupo? Granted lupo was in the Dominican league but he was 18 an destroyed the league! Morris has done nothing but struggle! I think Robles will prove everyone wrong too.
Bryan
2/5/2013-3:40pm at 3:40 pm (UTC -4)
Well, Lupo is still a bit of a mystery, having never played stateside, and like I mentioned, Morris completely turned it around when he moved to the bullpen, so I wasn’t willing to give up on him. I didn’t think the order of number 44 and 45 was a big deal. I wouldn’t say that everyone is doubting Robles; if people were doubting him he wouldn’t be mentioned at all on top prospect lists, and he’s on just about every one out there.
3doza33
2/5/2013-7:52pm at 7:52 pm (UTC -4)
A relief pitcher with huge question marks compared to an 18 year old monster all around everyday player…. I’m taking my chances on the young gifted outfielder all day long. If you had to cut one player from your roster I would def cut Morris before I cut lupo! Especially with so little depth at that position in the organization!
Bryan
2/5/2013-11:03pm at 11:03 pm (UTC -4)
I’m still not sure why ranking one guy 44 and the other guy 45 is such a big deal, but I would think an 18 year old that has only played in the DSL would have as many question marks as a guy with an electric arm and control problems. Also, organizational depth isn’t much of a factor when talking about an 18 year old that is years away.
3doza33
2/6/2013-6:14pm at 6:14 pm (UTC -4)
Robles is in this section and I can’t wait to see the 41 guys you think are better than him too. I guess we will have to agree to disagree on our ideas of talent. Other than that, I def like this site.