As fellow author Kingman and I were discussing in the comment section, I understand the need for Bourn. It would certainly fill a need on a team that has a bunch of question marks in the OF and would end the debate of who leads off and if the Met will go with 3 platoons in the OF. There’s no doubt if the team was almost complete Bourn would certainly be the answer. However, i think we all know that that this year would take everything breaking right to be in the hunt with or without Bourn. Not to say, before Salty comes running, that improving this team is moot. It’s just I am not willing to risk the future on a halfhearted attempt at winning this season.
Now back to the post, in my opinion with or without Bourn the Mets number one need is a RH hitting OF with power to slot in after Davis. If the Mets get Bourn then Kirk and DD really have no spot on the team unless you consider going with a platoon of Kirk and Brown in RF which is fine. However, I thin we would all say that the biggest hole would still be the RH power hitting RF. Not only that but it’s an organizational weakness with the only hope on the immediate horizon in terms of a RH OF is Cory Vaughn who has a lot to prove this year in the minors to even remain a guy on prospect list. Even the Mets prize pick Nimmo is another LH guy. There seems to be no plans of converting Flores to the OF either. If you think about it, the Mets even entertained the idea of moving Lutz and Turner to the OF just to have someone that carries a RH bat and an OF glove.
So as Kingman logically ask, if not Bourn who? To me the Bourn issue is both independent of the RF issue as well as attached at the hip. What you say? As I mentioned earlier with or without Bourn there has to be a RH OF solution. So if you sign Bourn then yes the team is better, what I am worried about however is what amount of resources financially do the Mets really have? Can they afford both a 15M per year contract to Bourn while also paying for a RF or will this like Jason Bay completely lock us into what we have with searching for cheap trades as the only alternatives to fill other holes. Something many would say that we have been doing already.
Man am I ever drifting today. Back to the post again. I search the world over, OK I only searched MLB’s depth chart tool, to look for RH OF that might be an option. Some of these may or may not be available and you could say that some of them have really no chance of bettering the team. I am not looking today to try to sell any of these players or use statistical analysis to make a point. I am only throwing names in for discussion. I would like to say as well that some of these guys only fit one of the dimensions. They may or may not be considered power hitting guys. Some of these names also have already even been mentioned in the hallowed halls of TRDM:
Casper Wells, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Gomez, Corey Hart, Josh Willingham, Alex Castellanos, Jose Tabata, Mike Olt, Eric Young, Mark Trumbo, Chris Heisey, Michael Cuddyer, Dexter Fowler and ……
Carlos Gonzalez
I saved the best for last. If the Rockies tank, like I expect them to do, I think Gonzalez will be on the move. They have already backed off their stance on him being unavailable considering that they did discuss a deal with the Rangers but would not come down from asking for Olt and Profar. That’s a steep price to pay for a guy who has the typical Coors splits. However, there are two things there. They didn’t get that in return and Gonzalez may just be that special of a player. Wait I am cheating aren’t I? He’s Left Handed. Yes he sure is which is why my concern for Bourn makes even more sense. Can the Mets trade for a guy like Gonzalez who would clearly remake the Mets lineup while also paying Bourn 15M and adding another LH bat to the lineup? If so? Then by all means, go get your Bourn and either way I will still hold out hope that the Mets are able to bring in that big name OF or that Sandy is able to find that diamond in the rough RF to lock down the position for years to come. Oh wait, that’s what we have Brown for.
62 comments
TX
2/6/2013-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
If you can add Cargo, and still have Bourn, whomever the other OF spot will be will be some Righty batting schlep. Duda will be traded/kicked to the curb. If you are really worried about having another right handed bat in the lineup, Murph is trade bait as well.
Bourn
Tejada
Cargo
Wright
Ike
TDA
Murph
Random OF player not named Duda.
My point, you do both.
TRS86
2/6/2013-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
Which is also my point, can they? Can they actually absorb 35M+ in salary long-term while also handling the increases to Wright and the arbitration guys? We all know they SHOULD be able to but can they? And if not, I don’t want 15M of that spent on Bourn and still have the same biggest hole with no chance really of anyone in the organization of filling it.
TX
2/6/2013-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
I guess that is the rub to it all. I would think they should if they are competing and bringing in more bodies to the stadium. And Bourn is at max getting 13 mil and probably less. not that 2 million would make or break the team (I would hope).
TRS86
2/6/2013-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
See I think he gets 15M but for a shorter term with maybe even opt outs. I think 3-45 instead of 5/75.
TX
2/6/2013-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
Ok, so at 3 for 45, we have this going on:
I won’t count 2013, as you’d only be adding about 3-4 million for Cargo if he’s traded mid season.
2014 – Dwright @ 20, Niese @ 5, Ike @ 7 (est.), Bourn @ 15, Cargo at 10.5. That’s 57.5 mil. If you want to add in Murph at 4.5 to make it 61, so be it, but I can see Murph being moved as he’s getting expensive. So, 61 mil. Then adding in the rest, you are at about 90 million, considering Buck, Frankie, Santana, Marcum are gone and most of the rest of the team will be 1-2 mil BP pieces, Rooks making the min and filler.
2015 – Dwright @ 20, Niese @ 7, Ike @ 9 (est.), Bourn @ 15, Cargo at 16. That’s 67 mil. So, doing some arbs and filler and the rest of the jass, you get 100-110 million if you want to go crazy.
2016 – Dwright @ 20, Niese @ 9, Ike @ 12 (est.), Cargo at 17. That’s 58 mil. Bourn is gone and his money is used for sweet extensions for Wheeler, Harvey and TDA and you are floating around the same 100-110 million mark.
So, I think it is completely plausible that they can do both Bourn and Cargo.
Tommy2cat
2/6/2013-1:52pm at 1:52 pm (UTC -4)
Platoon of Brown & Niewenhuis resolves RF for this year. Both players are plus defenders, and Andrew Brown has an absolute cannon, keeps his throws low and on target.
Defensively, RF will be fine, particularly if we have Bourn in center, which makes more sense with each passing day.
Offensively, Andrew Brown has hit @ 50 home runs b/w AAA and MLB in the last 2 years. Yeah, he accomplished these feats at PCL & Coors, but he DID hit a ball into the Coors Field parking lot last year, and he’s had power numbers at less hitter-friendly locations. But don’t take my word for it, here’s some footage of Brown’s defensive prowess and awesome power:
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/search/media.jsp?player_id=518500
Similarly, I think Kirk has demonstrated that once he gets comfortable at any given level, he succeeds. He’s a skilled athlete and I trust that he’ll figure it out.
Not worried about right field. Not at all.
TX
2/6/2013-2:16pm at 2:16 pm (UTC -4)
Good post. And here’s to hoping (though I’m more reserved on Kapt K than most).
Stick
2/6/2013-2:24pm at 2:24 pm (UTC -4)
the more I read about Brown, the more I am liking him. Really looks like he could be the RH half of a productive platoon. No clue what would happen if he became an everyday guy, but having strong D would make that more palatable.
Kirk, Baxter or Spin could all be in the running as the LH guy, if none of them are needed in CF.
wanny
2/6/2013-4:27pm at 4:27 pm (UTC -4)
I have seen no one in the prospect media project Kirk as a plus defender. Average or slightly better than average, perhaps.
The only report of Brown — a non-prospect — that I have seen came from a Colorado blogger who noted on this Web site that Brown “provides little to no defensive value.”
gategem
2/7/2013-12:23am at 12:23 am (UTC -4)
Even though they play (or played) different positions and represent different eras Kirk defensively reminds me of the late Elio Chacon. Both players have (or had) the unique talent of making routine plays appear spectacular.
My question about Brown and some of the others of his ilk is if they are solid ballplayers then why did other organizations pass on them and why were they available? I can’t believe that SA is the only intelligent GM in baseball.
TX
2/6/2013-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
Also, further to this, here is Cargo’s remaining salary.
2013 27 Colorado Rockies $7,500,000
2014 28 Colorado Rockies $10,500,000
2015 29 Colorado Rockies $16,000,000
2016 30 Colorado Rockies $17,000,000
2017 31 Colorado Rockies $20,000,000
So, if this team is competing and one would think have higher revenue streams from playing better, they should be able to float in the 110-120 mil range in salaries. So, sprinkling in Bourn with Wright, Niese and I guess an Ike extension, there is a lot of young controlled talent around to absorb both Bourn and Cargo’s additions.
Now, just would be a matter of how much it would cost prospect wise. Prob would start with Synder, Flores and several others.
TRS86
2/6/2013-10:51am at 10:51 am (UTC -4)
Oh there’s no doubt I would back up the truck. Give them 3 of the top ten not named Wheeler or TDA.
TRS86
2/6/2013-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
Back to the financial side, I just don’t trust it. I just feel like the Bourn deal will be just like Bay… We spent our wad so good luck guys.
kingman 26
2/6/2013-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
Nice post, and nice to have back-to-back posts debating like this…good day here.
I cannot believe I am saying this, but maybe Bourn and Trumbo/Olt…adds power and speed, and while we would lead the universe in Ks, we sure would score a lot more runs.
No to any Coorsian; coming to Citi would be a disaster.
Can we trade for Olt still without losing a top prospect?
To me, Duda is a nothing and none of the other OFs we have are much of anything either. Kirk has value due to defense and Valdy might be able to make a go of it, but if we could sign Bourn AND get either Trumbo or Olt for another OF spot, I think this team would be on its way.
With the starting pitching we will have, the power of Ike/Wright/Trumbo and the speed of Bourn will be more than enough offense.
Stick
2/6/2013-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
I looked him up. His “handedness” splits are not all that bad for a lefty, certainly good enough to be an everyday guy.
but man, his home/away (the Coors factor) are breathtaking. 1.00+ vs. 7.00? Even for a Rockie, that is hard to hathom.
Stick
2/6/2013-11:05am at 11:05 am (UTC -4)
Hey, don’t snooze on Brown. he has at least the potentially to be a hairston like platton guy!
Car Go, that is a stretch. and a reach.
the better option is to try and pluck a guy out of AAA that has real potential, when they finally make the “big” trade that has to happen at some point.
I would also not get hung up on having to get a guy like Kingman (no, the real one, from the old days) that can put up 40 HRs or some such. A 20 HR doubles machine (IOW, what Wright is supposed to be) that has some speed and can play a quality OF is more than fine by me!
TRS86
2/6/2013-11:06am at 11:06 am (UTC -4)
Why is Cargo such a reach? We know the Mets were very interested in Upton and they certainly have enough talent to get Cargo.
TRS86
2/6/2013-11:07am at 11:07 am (UTC -4)
Oh, and as the list shows I didn’t only look for big boppers. If I could get Gomez and Wells I would be a happy camper.
kingman 26
2/6/2013-11:13am at 11:13 am (UTC -4)
Well, Matt Cerrone was very interested in Upton, we know that…
TRS86
2/6/2013-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
LOL, yes he was. But I think it’s clear Sandy was as well.
Stick
2/6/2013-11:31am at 11:31 am (UTC -4)
Just assuming that as usual the Rockies will ask for the moon. and no clue what the Mets offered (or were willing to offer) for Upton.
that, and what will the competition be for him? Other teams likely will want in.
srt
2/6/2013-1:44pm at 1:44 pm (UTC -4)
”the better option is to try and pluck a guy out of AAA that has real potential, when they finally make the “big” trade that has to happen at some point.’
My feeling as well. It’s probably the only way we’re going to get a good upgrade – RH bat – w/o paying the big $$. We’ll just be paying in prospects/players.
Stick
2/6/2013-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
Tx touches on a point I forget to harp on. OF is not the only place to find a RH bat. And that is why I really want Flores to get a long look at 2B. because if he can prove to at least be acceptable (remembering that Murphy has set the bar really, really low), and his bat continues to impress, sliding him into 2B changes the whole dynamic of the order.
Combine him with TDA, and if they both carry their potential to be viable ML bats, the handedness of the OF becomes a whole lot less important.
RH: Flores/Wright/TDA/Tejada
LH: Ike
plenty of room to absorb 2 FT LHB in the OF. so say they did add Car Go and Bourn (yes, I am in fantasy land now, but screw it). That also brings a ton of power to the lineup. Making the need to keep Duda starting (for the pop) less essential.
so, in this scenario, you would trade Duda to the AL, and play Cowpie/brown/spin/misc. lefties in LF.
Bourn though can’t possibly go to 15mill. maybe if they can “steal” him at 12 (3/36), they can fit them all in. Flores and TDA cheap would be a must, along with rotation and pen on the low budget.
gotta admit, a line up of:
Bourn
Tejada
Wright
Ike
Cargo
TDA
Flores/Murphy
Cowpie/Brown/
looks pretty damned impressive, and shockingly, only has 1 spot where D is not an asset!
Stick
2/6/2013-11:15am at 11:15 am (UTC -4)
oh yeah, if you can find the AAA trade prospect I asked for above (Olt? Give it a try!) that can come close to Cargo (at least what he would do in Citi) all the better, since more money to invest elsewhere!
Prismo
2/6/2013-11:33am at 11:33 am (UTC -4)
The issue with replacing Murphy with Flores is that while you become more righthanded, you’re not really gaining much overall offense. The improvement gained by replacing one of the bums in the OF with a true RH hitter is potentially much greater.
TX
2/6/2013-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
Well, I think he’s saying by putting Cargo, in this exercise, in one of those spots, the offense if greatly improved. So if it is greatly improved and you switch out a RH person at 2B at the same production of Murph, you’ve in essence done the same thing as finding a RH power bat for the OF. One more step, but same result at the end.
Prismo
2/6/2013-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
That just doesn’t make sense to me. Finding a RH bat in the OF not only gets another RH bat in the lineup, but it also potentially replaces a .700 OPS guy with an 800+ OPS guy. (upper 800s if it’s CarGo)
Replacing Murphy gets you that RH bat, but you’re replaxing a ~750 OPS guy with a 750-800 OPS guy (whatever Flores might become).
The improvement is so much greater. Replacing the outfielder gives you a deeper lineup.
Prismo
2/6/2013-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
That said, if you could find a way to TRADE Murphy and a couple prospects for a good outfielder, it does make sense to slot Flores in there.
I just don’t think a straight up Murphy for Flores leads to much improvement overall.
Stick
2/6/2013-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
well, if you can find a big improvement bat for the OF, but he turns out to be lefty, this is a way to get taht improvement without further unbalancing the lineup.
Stick
2/6/2013-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)
yes, I was assuming that you would likely trade Murphy for something back. Though he could remain as a strong bench bat too, since he can play everywhere but SS on the IF, and is no less scary in the OF than Turner, and in the past has been a good PH.
but more likely, trade him to free up more $$
Prismo
2/6/2013-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
MLB Network named Murphy the 10th best 2B in the league and you want to sit him on the bench to start an unproven 3B prospect!!!!!!!!!
Stick
2/6/2013-12:59pm at 12:59 pm (UTC -4)
well, if you put it like that.
Yes.
Stick
2/6/2013-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
exactly. the end result is better overall offense, and you still balance out the handedness.
Reese
2/6/2013-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
There are a number of good base stealers who would cost way less than Bourn. Toronto has three of them — Rajai Davis, Emilio Bonifacio and Anthony Gose. The Cubs have Tony Campaña. The Rangers have Craig Gentry. None of them should demand much more than a B level prospect in return — think Darin Gorski, for example. That way you keep your draft pick, don’t saddle yourself with another $50 million contract and have funds available when former Met farmhand Carlos Gomez comes on the market in 2014. He quietly put together a 19 HR season with his usual stellar defense and excellent baserunning.
Stick
2/6/2013-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
I love this idea. Get a guy for right now, that hopefully can even be here beyond 2013, and target Gomez instead.
a fine plan.
TX
2/6/2013-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
Gose would cost an Arm and a leg. Bonifacio wouldn’t be half bad. And other than Gose, these are all just band-aides for CF. I think the point of signing Bourn would be that he fills that spot for 3+ years and hopefully Nimmo or another is actually knocking on the door by then to take CF.
Reese
2/6/2013-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
Oops…I left out Oakland’s Coco Crisp.
Stick
2/6/2013-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
quite rightly, I should add. thank you for that.
fongulalou
2/6/2013-12:19pm at 12:19 pm (UTC -4)
Not sure why BUT i’m feeling alot more optimistic approaching Ps&Cs than the last couple seasons.
Any word on Brandon Lyons???
I actually like these low risk FA signings of the past few weeks. I’ve arrived at the pro-Bourne camp a few weeks ago, of course no more than 3 yrs…With or without the draft pick protection. I mean really, A) who we gonna draft? B) can we sign him? C) will he even become a MLBer? D) Will he even be what Bourne is?…AND E) Who knows where we’ll be 3or4 yrs from now when the draft pick is ready for MLB?
I look at our situation, am trying to be as optimistic as I can, and see Bourne and think Lance Johnson.
srt
2/6/2013-11:23pm at 11:23 pm (UTC -4)
I’ve heard nothing further on the signing of Brandon. Was wondering about that myself.
wanny
2/6/2013-4:29pm at 4:29 pm (UTC -4)
Why are we discussing Den Dekker as a candidate? He won’t hit water if he falls out of a boat in the Flushing Bay.
TX
2/6/2013-4:34pm at 4:34 pm (UTC -4)
Amen! Solid D does no good when it can’t crack the lineup. Or when it K’s every 3.2 PAs…
Stick
2/6/2013-6:12pm at 6:12 pm (UTC -4)
just out of curiosity, I checked Bourn. Last year, he K’d in 1 in 4.5 PAs. FWIW.
Dekker has to increase the contact of course to be a viable hitter, but at least he brings what is reported to be the best CF D in the organization.
TX
2/6/2013-6:19pm at 6:19 pm (UTC -4)
Bourn is a career 1 per every 4.95. again, not stellar, but better than one every 3 or one every 4.
darknova306
2/6/2013-9:54pm at 9:54 pm (UTC -4)
Solid defense with a lousy bat on a bad team doesn’t cost $15M per year. A crappy team doesn’t need to spend $15M per year on defense they could get cheap just to marginally increase their leadoff spot’s offense. No thanks.
wanny
2/6/2013-10:00pm at 10:00 pm (UTC -4)
I’m not a big Bourn supporter but I wouldn’t call him a lousy bat.
darknova306
2/6/2013-10:05pm at 10:05 pm (UTC -4)
Poorly worded on my part. I meant the Mets can easily put a solid defensive guy with no bat in CF on the cheap (Den Dekkker, Kirk, whoever) without dropping $15M on a guy like Bourn while using defense to justify the signing. I don’t see his offensive output alone as worth the $15M they’d pay him.
TX
2/7/2013-12:27am at 12:27 am (UTC -4)
Nova, this idea that the legend of MDD and his golden glove are wonderful to think on, but do you really expect one with great D and a K rate of 1 out of 3 expect to do anything at the major league level? I’d love love love to have CF filled organically. But it is not happening.
darknova306
2/7/2013-1:19am at 1:19 am (UTC -4)
Bourn’s not the legend you’re making him out to be, either.
What I’m saying is that the defense argument for signing Bourn is silly cause his defense can be pretty well replaced in-house for cheap. That leaves Bourn bringing offense to the table, and I don’t see his offensive contributions as being worth $15M per season, especially for 3 or more years, plus a first round draft pick.
Stick
2/7/2013-8:48am at 8:48 am (UTC -4)
Dark, I agree about the legend. I honestly think that the perceived destitution of the current OF options is coloring peoples perceptions of Bourn.
basically, if you are starving to death, a rotted melon still looks darned tasty!
Bourn to me seems like the perfect guy that if you had him, and he was hitting FA, you would let him go (avoiding the big 2nd generation contract) and use a younger/better/cheaper (pick some!) option. Pretty much what the Braves did with him, garnering a pick out of the deal too.
I am also still not positive the payroll will expand at all in the next couple ofyears, so like Real said in comparing him to Bay, what if he is the 1 “big name” guy we are getting in the next couple of years (the bay corrolary)? That would really suck.
Just being better than what else you see in camp to me is not the reason to make a huge commitment to a guy if he is not really good, on his own.
The braves, Phils and Nats off the top of my head all needed a CF this year and avoided Bourn like the plauge. At least 2 of those teams are pretty smartly run. and the other spends a lot of money, and actually had a love affair with Bourn (part of the family). that should tell you something.
darknova306
2/6/2013-10:11pm at 10:11 pm (UTC -4)
TX, your logic is flawed. Would you have cast Rey Ordonez out because he couldn’t hit major league pitching? No. His defense made up for all of that. And that’s where guys like Den Dekker are. You only make that argument because you want Bourn. Stay objective, man.
Stick
2/6/2013-11:12pm at 11:12 pm (UTC -4)
Tex ordered the Fathead already. Objectivity sailed from that port.
darknova306
2/6/2013-11:25pm at 11:25 pm (UTC -4)
First, I hate you. Second, Fat Head’s Head Hunter IPA is absolutely amazing, so I’d allow that.
TX
2/7/2013-12:32am at 12:32 am (UTC -4)
Also, have you messed around with Falconers flight at all?
TX
2/7/2013-12:34am at 12:34 am (UTC -4)
Stick, it’s bigger than your Duda Fathead, if that’s possible.
TX
2/7/2013-12:38am at 12:38 am (UTC -4)
Lastly, have you messed with Nelson hops? It’s the oddest thing ever. Like Zinfandel. Stopped me dead in my tracks. Just can’t place the flavor at all.
darknova306
2/7/2013-12:55am at 12:55 am (UTC -4)
Falconer’s Flight? No, I’ve never touched it. My understanding is that it’s a mix of a bunch of different hop varieties, but I’m not sure.
Nelson Sauvin… yeah. That’s good stuff. There’s a brewpub just south of Cooperstown (Council Rock Brewpub). Before I moved away, Roger brewed an IPA with all Nelson Sauvin hops, and it was an instant hit. We almost finished the keg that first night, but we couldn’t quite make it. There were definitely some flavor aspects to it, though I’m not a wine guy so I can’t elaborate on anything specific. Those New Zealand hops are making a really nice showing, I must say. Great tropical fruit kinds of flavors.
TX
2/7/2013-12:31am at 12:31 am (UTC -4)
Rey Rey, sucked. He could field better than almost anyone, but hit like 4th grader. Now, Bourn.. He can actually hit MLB pitching. 10 trips last year. 40+ steals. Comparing Rey Rey and Bourn on the D level is fine. Comparing Rey Rey and Bourn on the offensive level, is, well, offensive.
darknova306
2/7/2013-12:47am at 12:47 am (UTC -4)
I wasn’t comparing their offense. I was responding to your statement: “Amen! Solid D does no good when it can’t crack the lineup”. Rey Rey’s sold D did plenty of good without being able to legitimately hit MLB pitching. Was just trying to provide a legit, and relevant, counterpoint.
TX
2/7/2013-9:27am at 9:27 am (UTC -4)
Noted. No offense ever taken. Hopefully soon we can talk about how well the team is doing on the field and it renders all these silly arguments to be moot.
gategem
2/7/2013-12:48am at 12:48 am (UTC -4)
There was a time when CFers that played stellar defense but couldn’t hit were a dime a dozen. I don’t believe that adding an automatic out to your lineup can be covered by strong defense. While a perspicacious FO plans both short and long term the dynamics of sports sometimes presents immediate opportunities that can change the planning. So while the discussions here make for interesting reading and speculation events will occur that were not factored into the equation and totally change the dynamics of the situation. So what should the Mets do? Your guess is as good as mine.
Stick
2/7/2013-8:56am at 8:56 am (UTC -4)
from having watched this bunch for a long time, I would bet that whatever they do will royally confuse 1/2 the fan base, and totally piss-off the other 1/2.