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Real Dirty Mets Blog
by Gonzo Will
This Blizzard of 2013 has made wish for baseball more than ever.
With Spring Training opening up this week, let the speculation begin!
Today’s question: If Johan Santana is healthy, how many games is he capable of winning?
2/10/2013-8:28am at 8:28 am (UTC -4)
On this team 8. If he is traded to a contender by deadline bump it up to 12.
2/10/2013-8:57am at 8:57 am (UTC -4)
Six wins!…Hopefully the Mets can trade him to a contending team ASAP.
We will have to eat a lot of his contract, but he comes off our books.
2/10/2013-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
On this team, I’m not sure anyone will break double digits unless they can find a way to channel Dwight Gooden, vintage 1985.
I say 7 wins for a healthy Johan Santana.
2/10/2013-9:41am at 9:41 am (UTC -4)
Depends….are we talking about before or after he’s traded?
We’re doing good if he’s got 7 wins through the first half. If he’s not traded, I’m thinking he ends the season with about 12 wins.
2/10/2013-9:54am at 9:54 am (UTC -4)
No way they can trade that contract. May be 7-8 wins if he stays healthy and Collins doesn’t leave him in for 130 pitches.
2/10/2013-10:30am at 10:30 am (UTC -4)
The Mets would have to pay some of that remaining salary (at whatever point he’s traded) for any hopes of getting a better prospect back.
2/10/2013-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
Santana was 6-5 w/6 no decisions, and had a 3.24 ERA and a 1.169 WHIP in the first half before the fatigue sent him spiraling. (He began throwing in December of 2011 and didn’t stop until he was first sheled in lat July)
As I’m looking at the club, I’m expecting them to perform roughly the same in the W-L column when it’s all said and done.
11 for Santana. If he gets moved to a contender it will likely be quite close to the 7/31 deadline — the less salary left the better for him. The impact of starting 10 games for a .560 team vs. a .450 team on a won-lost record? Negligible. 12 if he gets moved.
2/10/2013-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
Is fatigue the same as having his ankle practically twisted off by yet another of Terry’s “WTF is he doing at 1B” guys? Because that is when he lost it.
2/10/2013-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
Shoulder fatigue, the ankle, lower back inflammation….the Mets trotted all those explanations out.
Maybe they were relying on the player’s say-so. As in, “Terry, yo. I’m tired of this s*it.”
2/10/2013-12:39pm at 12:39 pm (UTC -4)
I go with the ankle as the issue. He was pitching great leading up to that game. And was doing fine in that game. He got stomped, then (for some ridiculous reason) they left him in a while to get toasted. next game, he was a mess. Then they gave him 2 weeks off. and that was pretty much it.
very plausible the ankle bothering him still led to mechanical issues, etc. that contributed to other aches of course.
2/10/2013-1:26pm at 1:26 pm (UTC -4)
And who knows? Maybe that sore ankle led to Johan altering his mechanics which lead to the sore lower back. We’ll never know…..
2/10/2013-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
given how well he pitched though end of June (16 starts), before the got his ankle trampled which effectively ended his season, quite a few.
I’ll say 15. he had 6 wins in 16 starts through 6/30, and pitched much better than that. And since the scenario assumed that he would be healthy, double that is 12, so add a few for less no decisions,
2/10/2013-1:39pm at 1:39 pm (UTC -4)
He’s going to win the most games he has won since 2008 with a team that will unquestionably have much less offense than it did in 2008?
And no, he did not pitch “much better” than that through 6/30. I think he had ten quality starts last year.
He was very up and down–the back-to-back shutouts and a few other 6-8 inning shutouts, yes, but he also got shelled a bunch of times too by 6/30.
2/10/2013-1:49pm at 1:49 pm (UTC -4)
16 starts with a 2.76 ERA and a low WHIP. hard to pitch much better than that.
2/10/2013-1:56pm at 1:56 pm (UTC -4)
True, and as I have said, we’d be psyched if the season was 79 games long.
But it’s not.
2/10/2013-4:05pm at 4:05 pm (UTC -4)
He’d also been throwing since December. It’s not like he ran out of gas after a normal pre-seaseon workload.
2/10/2013-5:50pm at 5:50 pm (UTC -4)
Even more of an argument as to why the WBC should not even be considered.
2/10/2013-8:08pm at 8:08 pm (UTC -4)
I completely agree. Global marketing benefit or not, as far as I’m concerned they can torch the whole thing….or leave it to minor leaguers or retirees.
2/10/2013-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
If he’s healthy and a Met all year, I say 10 wins. If he’s traded to a legit contender in July, 12 wins.
I don’t actually expect him to make it through the full year healthy, though. I’d guess 5 wins, then his arm disintegrates.
2/10/2013-12:46pm at 12:46 pm (UTC -4)
As others have stated fatigue and the ankle injury and lower back issues had a major impact on Santana last year. However one item that has been overlooked is the league catching up with what Santana was throwing. So if Santana returns with the same stuff he exhibited last year I can see 7 wins with the Mets. If Johan returns with a slight uptick in his velocity I can see 11 wins.
2/10/2013-1:06pm at 1:06 pm (UTC -4)
According to the data on fangraphs, Santana’s fastball had the lowest average velocity of his Mets career in 2012, so I think “the league catching up to what he’s throwing” may have some validity.
2/10/2013-1:35pm at 1:35 pm (UTC -4)
>10 and I cannot wait until he is off this team.
If he plays in the WBC and then tires/shuts down mid-season again, the Mets should refuse to pay him another cent.
Yeah, he was great in 2008 and very good in 2009-2010, but while I fully understand patriotism and wanting to play for one’s country, after what he has been paid to do so very little the last two years, he has no business even suggesting the WBC.
He should be giving every last iota of whatever he has left to the Mets.
By the end of 2013 he will have received about 75M for three years.
He has six wins thus far in that period and it’s not like he has lost a load of 1-0 games either.
2/10/2013-1:43pm at 1:43 pm (UTC -4)
Dead on, sir. After the past couple years, he owes the fans a 100% focus on the team that pays him. It’s bad enough to see workhorse pitchers break up their offseason/ST routines, but a guy that hasn’t been fully healthy in years doing it is inexcusable.
The WBC was a cute little idea by Bud, but it needs to go away or be significantly altered in how it functions.
2/10/2013-1:52pm at 1:52 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed 100% and I agree with those who say that if there’s going to be a WBC it should be mid-season; take a 7–10 day break or something every four years, and it could turn into a World Cup.
With nothing else major going on sports-wise in the US in July, maybe have a 10–14 day break for the All-Star break and play the WBC then. It could become hugely popular here that way, and players would all, by definition, be in mid-season form.
2/10/2013-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
That makes a ton more sense than trying to go up against NBA and NCAA basketball in March for viewership.
2/10/2013-2:48pm at 2:48 pm (UTC -4)
Absolutely–the way it is now, US fans are distracted and the players are not in shape. It just is not done correctly for the world’s biggest baseball market.
Not trying to be gung-ho US-centric here, but clearly, most of the world’s best players play MLB ball, so it should be done somehow so it works better with the majors.
2/10/2013-4:29pm at 4:29 pm (UTC -4)
there is already a natural break. It is called the summer Olympics. Now that they eliminated baseball (they did, right?), all those national teams have nothing to do at that time, so just do the WBC when the Olympics are going on.
2/10/2013-2:19pm at 2:19 pm (UTC -4)
‘If he plays in the WBC and then tires/shuts down mid-season again, the Mets should refuse to pay him another cent.’
How do the Mets refuse to pay him another cent if he breaks down again? If only it worked like that. Gotta love these guaranteed contracts, huh?
From what I’m reading the WBC has to insure Johan if he goes to the WBC. I’m thinking they won’t be springing for that and Johan won’t be going.
2/10/2013-2:29pm at 2:29 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, I am dreaming and just really am disappointed that after his one good half-season for 45M the last two years that he would even think about it.
Just not right.
2/10/2013-4:12pm at 4:12 pm (UTC -4)
As far as camps go, this one should be relatively straightforward. The Mets do not have any position battles in their starting lineup or rotation, meaning they merely need to fill out their bullpen and their bench between now and Opening Day.
Um…did I miss something? I have no idea who is playing RF (as in a 2 man platoon) and who the likely LF late-inning-defensive-replacement and/or platoon with Duda will be.
2/10/2013-4:26pm at 4:26 pm (UTC -4)
if this is true, it really pisses me off. There should be only a few spots that are not up for grabs. 3B and 1B for sure. C just for now (No chance TDA starts on the Mets).
that is really it if you want to be tough. SS I know is locked up, so I’ll concede that it makes sense. 2B, IMO should be open, but again, since there is no other candidate, then yes count that one.
Rotation, that actually should be set now. which is OK to break camp.
But all 3 OF spots should be wide freaking open. And that includes LF. As should at least 4 BP spots (FFF, Lyon and Parnell I would say are “locks” if healthy).
2/10/2013-4:33pm at 4:33 pm (UTC -4)
I imagine Martino’s just envisioning the conventional presumption. Duda fulltime in left, Kirk/Cowgill in center and Baxter with either Brown/Byrd in right.
I’d be surprised if it doesn’t play out that way.
The pen, I would think, is just as you describe.
I would dearly love it if someone (Q or someone else) could play Brandon Hicks off the rosteer. He’s on the 40-man so he’s got a leg up. I have no desire to see him.
2/10/2013-4:45pm at 4:45 pm (UTC -4)
very much a bubble guy if someone else (a MiL invite guy) wins the job in ST. can just cut him no harm no foul.
2/10/2013-5:01pm at 5:01 pm (UTC -4)
speaking of the OF, and Bourn, heard that the Cubs just released Tony Campana. He was a topic of discussion someplace recently. Looking at his stats, it looks like Bourn with a budget friendly contract, even more speed (and excellent D), just no power. Oh, and keeps the option of getting a real corner OF (complete with a real contract) open, and no lost draft pick.
pretty much looks like Ben Revere, with more speed, and he cost a ridiculous amount of talent to get.
so what the hell, if the guy can be had, bring him in. Not an offensive dynamo, but could be the big defensive CF the team needs.
is there at least a minimal amount of O in there to make it worth it?
2/10/2013-6:01pm at 6:01 pm (UTC -4)
What is with the utter disregard for reality regarding Bourn??
Campana has TEN EXTRA BASE HITS in 347 PA!
And this is a guy who, based on his unreal SB %, must be lightning-fast.
Which means he CAN NOT HIT.
Here’s a fun exercise–go to baseballreference and compare Bourn instead to Jose Reyes.
Aside from Jose’s outlier 2011 BA and the obvious difference in Ks, you might be VERY surprised.
And don’t forget to compare games played too.
2/10/2013-6:22pm at 6:22 pm (UTC -4)
I just suggested looking at him, along with other similar speed/defense guys.
You seem to be developing a much bigger man crush on Bourn than many of the rest of us have. He is an OK player, probably not as close as you think to Reyes, and IMO no way worth the 15mill at age 30+. It will not end well.
2/10/2013-8:16pm at 8:16 pm (UTC -4)
I saw the Campana note. He has no power….though if you could get him for minimal and wanted someone to compete with Kirk for the platoon spot to share w/Cowgill, he’s an option. Strong defensively. Vs. Righties .270/.307/.317. All the extra base hits are against them. (All is a relative term.)
2/10/2013-9:15pm at 9:15 pm (UTC -4)
Have you taken a good look at Bourn and Reyes the last four years?
Go ahead and do it and you might think differently.
No, Bourn is no superstar, but he is uniquely qualified to fill many current Met holes, and is eminently worth 3/40–45.
2/10/2013-9:54pm at 9:54 pm (UTC -4)
I’ve been reading the thread and for conversation’s sake here are Reyes and Bourn 3 and 4 year hitting splits side by side.
2/10/2013-10:17pm at 10:17 pm (UTC -4)
thanks NJ. Saved me the trouble of doing it by hand. And much better presentation!
so pretty much confirmed what I expected, Bourn ran a little bit more, had more ABs, but Reyes had significantly more power/slugging.
Knog, I know what Bourn has done the last few years, but of course, the mets would not be paying for any of that, just what they will get out of him for the next ~4 years. And quite possibly in Citi that is less than his last few years, as he moves into his 30s.
so, same reason that Reyes seemed like a major stretch at his contract, paying Bourn 15 million for the next 3-4 years just seems to me to be a real bad idea.
2/10/2013-6:34pm at 6:34 pm (UTC -4)
How many wins will Santana get? Doesn’t that depend on about 1,234,652 different factors?
2/10/2013-6:42pm at 6:42 pm (UTC -4)
Is one of those factors Johan’s ability to stay away from golf courses and tennis courts?
2/10/2013-6:51pm at 6:51 pm (UTC -4)
I’d say so — can’t win many from Rikers.
Another factor is that Santana is a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher. All those right handed hitters will be hitting them out to Duda in LF. Yikes.
2/10/2013-8:49pm at 8:49 pm (UTC -4)
lol, ya know I stayed away from going there all day.
2/10/2013-8:58pm at 8:58 pm (UTC -4)
Random on King Felix breaking: Deal may be at risk due to findings with his elbow.
On Johan: hopefully enough wins to increase his value, we eat salary, and get some more prospects. With that in mind 6 wins in a Mets uniform. Best case a 6-2ish type record and flip him by the deadline. I don’t think he’ll make it through the second half. If he does his FB may be Young like by the end of August.
2/11/2013-7:33am at 7:33 am (UTC -4)
Been following that story on Felix and arm trouble.
You have to wonder if just about every pitcher over 25, when an extensive physical is performed, would show wear and tear on their pitching arm.
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