Today, we’re on to prospects 11-15 on the official Real Dirty Mets list. Let’s take a look:
15. Jacob DeGrom, RP – DeGrom was a relative unknown heading into the 2012 season after missing all of 2011 because of TJ surgery, but now he is definitely on the radar. DeGrom features a heavy sinker that helped him produce a 2.51 ERA in 15 starts for Savannah before finishing the season with 4 starts in St. Lucie. Since he missed a full year, DeGrom is a little behind the curve age wise, but he has the kind of stuff and the kind of polish that will help him advance quickly in the system, and if nothing else, his one plus pitch gives him a chance to be a viable bullpen piece if he can get to the majors.
14. Wilfredo Tovar, SS – Tovar was added to the 40-man roster during the offseason, as he is already a major league caliber shortstop defensively, so if he can hit even a little he’ll stay on a big league roster for a long time as a backup middle infielder. Tovar spent the second half of last season in AA, where he struggled a bit, but managed to put up a solid line of .254/.308/.332. Being just 5’10’’ and listed at 160 pounds will keep him from hitting with much power, but if he can take some walks and make good contact in the upper levels he’ll have a chance to play shortstop everyday in the big leagues. Tovar won’t turn 22 until August, so there’s no need to rush him, meaning he’ll return to AA, but with his defense it’s just a matter of time until he makes his big league debut, which could be as soon as the latter half of 2013, depending on how things go.
13. Matt den Dekker, OF – den Dekker mashed the ball during the first half of last season in AA, only to struggle after being promoted to AAA, hitting .220/.256/.373, which will probably keep him from having a legitimate chance to make the major league club out of spring, although with Mets outfield being what it is, the door is a little open. The high strike out rate was probably the most alarming thing about his time in AAA. If he can’t remedy that, it’ll make him a bench piece in the major leagues instead of a starting centerfielder, which is a shame because his defense is spectacular. One thing to keep in mind about den Dekker is that he struggled in AA the second half of 2011 and then crushed the ball when he returned to that level to start 2012. If he can do the same thing in AAA to start the 2013 season, it would be hard not to give him a major league call up mid-season.
12. Rafael Montero, RP – It’s possible that no one in the organization had a more impressive 2012 than Montero, who blew through both Savannah and St. Lucie with little trouble. He was actually better in St. Lucie, striking out over a batter per inning with a WHIP of 0.9 and an ERA of 2.13. Montero works with an average fastball, a plus change up, and a decent slider, but he’s able to sequence his pitches in a way that few A-ball pitchers anywhere are capable of doing. He doesn’t have an ideal body, just 6’0’’ 170 pounds, which could eventually keep him from being a starter, and is the main reason I kept him out of the top-10 at this point, but I do think it’s possible that Montero could be a guy that could end up being the exception and being able to remain a starter. He’ll start the season in AA, which is a level I think he’ll be able to handle; after that, we’ll see, but his future appears to be bright.
11. Cesar Puello, OF – Puello’s stock plummeted in 2012, but I kept him on the fringe of the top-10 because of his tools. Five-tool players are rare, and Puello is one of them, but injuries slowed his development in 2012. He has now spent two full seasons in St. Lucie, with only marginal progress, and little guarantee that he’s ready for AA. He did walk more times in 23 AFL games than he did in 66 games in St. Lucie during the regular season, so that’s something. He has the defensive ability, the arm, and the base-stealing ability, but he’s got to get the job done at the plate. Whether the Mets push him to AA or give him more time in the Florida State League remains to be seen, but either way, 2013 looks like a make or break year for Puello.
20 comments
Stickguy
2/13/2013-7:36am at 7:36 am (UTC -4)
If nothing else, the Mets should be able to put together solid, young cheap BP full of power arms out of the system.
and pet peeve time. I think it is silly to give up on guys (or not even give them a chance) as a SP because they don’t fit some preconceived notion of what a SP is supposed to be built like. Big Poof was tall. Did not help him much! And Pedro was short and skinny.
if a guy has the stuff/results to be a SP, leave him there regardless of how short or skinny he is.
Bryan
2/13/2013-8:18am at 8:18 am (UTC -4)
As much as I disdain prejudice against short guys, history tells us there’s very few Pedros out there. It’s really more science than anything else, if you don’t have that size and physique that comes with the extra bulk, you’ll get run down and tire out a lot more as a starter because there’s a big difference between 200 innings you accumulate as a starter and the 60 you get as a reliever. Although I do think Montero has a chance to debunk that.
Stick
2/13/2013-9:59am at 9:59 am (UTC -4)
still, if I ugy is not showing any signs of not having the required stamina, keep him starting. My beef is more with not giving a player a shot, assuming they can’t do it, even though they have the talent.
gategem
2/13/2013-11:21pm at 11:21 pm (UTC -4)
A major problem with being small is that short people generally have smaller hand size. Speaking from experience I can say that to compensate for less body mass and smaller hands you place much greater stress on your arm and when throwing the curveball you place greater stress on your elbow. It does tend to catch up with you.
srt
2/13/2013-8:21am at 8:21 am (UTC -4)
‘…although with Mets outfield being what it is, the door is a little open.’
LOL…I’d say that door is wide open.
Even so, I don’t see Matt DD making the team out of ST. Think he’ll get a long look though b/c yesterday Terry said he’s looking for defense and speed in filling the CF position, more so than offense, to start. I can only assume that’s b/c of Duda in LF and I-don’t-know-who playing RF.
Tovar: does he have above average speed? Lead off type hitter and stolen base threat if he gets on base?
SaltyGary
2/13/2013-8:50am at 8:50 am (UTC -4)
DD was so over-matched when I saw him last August. He had a couple hits that game but it seemed like it was more luck then being able to pick up the ball. It was a very passive/defensive swing.
Bryan
2/13/2013-9:10am at 9:10 am (UTC -4)
I saw the same thing, that’s why I think the door is cracked open instead of wide open. He was so far from mastering AAA pitching last year, so he’ll need a few more months.
Stick
2/13/2013-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
I wonder if a lot of that was mental with MDD? To me, that is likely because of the way he seems to start real slow at a level, then get really hot after a couple of months. Obviously it can’t be a lack of talent, if he can turn it on like that. So that leaves an adjustment period, which is the mental aspect of it to a large extent.
besides, you alwasy hear that A+ -> AA is the biggest MiL jump. I know going from AA to AAA you run into more “crafty veterans” (AKA old junk ball pitchers), but is there really enough of a difference in the overall quality of the pitching to take a guy putting up a AA OPS of .900 and turn him into a .600 OPS guy?
kingman 26
2/13/2013-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)
Gary, just responding again–no Twitter account but email me any time…
SaltyGary
2/13/2013-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
Mr. Jerz was wondering so I asked. You should join, it’s fun.
Prismo
2/13/2013-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
The man does have a business to run lol
kingman 26
2/13/2013-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
Yeah Prismo, that is most of it…I literally comment quickly here and the other place in spare seconds…that’s why I cannot write more pieces; I have gotten so damn busy…which is of course good, but it has cut into my baseball bloviating time!
Bryan
2/13/2013-9:13am at 9:13 am (UTC -4)
Over the last three seasons, Tovar has 41 stolen bases and been caught 28 times. I don’t think he’s a burner by any means and that’s not a great steal percentage, so I’d say he’s more of a casual base stealer, and probably not a ML leadoff man.
srt
2/13/2013-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
Dang…just looking at his body type, I would have thought some speed. Stereotyping, I know.
Then again, every time I watch Ruben run I wonder why he’s not faster.
Stick
2/13/2013-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
Some fast guys don’t run all that much, and CS is not always the best indicator. he may just have trouble reading the pticher, getting a jump, etc.
srt
2/13/2013-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
I know….that’s why I said ‘stereotyping’. My bad.
We’ve seen the opposite as well. Big frame type guys with good speed.
kingman 26
2/13/2013-10:38am at 10:38 am (UTC -4)
Bryan, cannot tell you how much I am enjoying this series.
For me, the thing about Montero that seems really impressive and encouraging is his amazing control–those BB #s are amazing. 32 BB in 193 IP!!
Prismo
2/13/2013-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
Ollie would need a 10 foot strike zone to have those numbers!
kingman 26
2/13/2013-1:12pm at 1:12 pm (UTC -4)
And walks to be awarded after six pitches…
gategem
2/13/2013-11:35pm at 11:35 pm (UTC -4)
Bryan great sequence of articles and I thank you very much for your research and effort.
BTW pitchers with average or slightly above average talent that possess impeccable command and control and are aware of the fundamentals of setting up hitters tend to overwhelm the kids in the lower minors. We’ll get a better reading on Montero at the higher minor league level and if and when he appears on the big league team.