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Feb 14

How Much Further of A Downgrade Can The 2013 Mets OF Go Compared To The 2012 Mets OF?

Yesterday the Mets GM Sandy Alderson during an interview with Mike Francesa of 660AM WFAN made the following statement.

“I’m not happy with what we were able to do or not able to do with the outfield and I take total responsibility for that. At the same time, I’m not sure that what we have currently is a significant downgrade from what we had last year. That’s not a compliment, but I think there’s been a lot of focus on the outfield. In some ways, it’s detracted from a more fair appraisal of what we have elsewhere.” – Sandy Alderson

After doing some digging if the 2013 outfield at least offensively indeed turns out to be a significant downgrade compared to the 2012 outfield, they won’t have much further to drop.

Here is where the 2012 Mets outfield ranked in MLB in the following batting categories:

  • 27th – BA
  • 27th – OBP
  • 27th – SLG
  • 28th – OPS
  • 28th – SB
  • 29th – RUN
  • 25th – RBI
  • 17th – HR

It’s not hard to see that with the production the Mets received from their outfield combined with that of which they received from behind the plate why the Mets struggled to score. This despite the production former Met Scott Hairston gave them. I want to think it will be hard for the 2013 Mets outfield to produce numbers much worse than this or at least I hope. The table and links below have a more detailed breakdown of the 2012 MLB outfield batting stats.

2012 MLB Outfield Hitting Statistics

2012 MLB Detailed Outfield Hitting Statistics.

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TMLGRHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
TEXA.L.27480297330.2890.3520.4990.851
COLN.L.29869272540.2920.3560.4860.841
MILN.L.32582247980.2820.3460.4820.828
STLN.L.29772269340.2870.3610.4580.819
LAAA.L.30580288640.2840.3440.4670.811
OAKA.L.27683258500.2620.3300.4630.793
BALA.L.27580239370.2700.3270.4600.786
PITN.L.28066216540.2730.3310.4530.784
ARIN.L.29769236410.2620.3380.4430.782
ATLN.L.27448219790.2810.3450.4330.778
NYYA.L.25689273240.2470.3230.4530.775
CHWA.L.27166247600.2760.3250.4460.771
SFGN.L.29137219710.2760.3360.4210.757
CINN.L.26781251480.2470.3130.4390.752
TBRA.L.27069227730.2480.3240.4260.750
WSNN.L.25762212420.2620.3250.4220.747
PHIN.L.24552216590.2680.3290.4150.744
LADN.L.26052232450.2650.3310.4120.743
SDPN.L.25348206590.2570.3270.4150.742
MIAN.L.23162208580.2520.3220.4170.739
MINA.L.25850223550.2690.3300.4060.736
DETA.L.27143207350.2670.3280.4070.735
KCRA.L.24938171440.2640.3260.3980.723
TORA.L.25968223540.2380.3080.4090.716
BOSA.L.25040212310.2640.3170.3980.715
CLEA.L.22835190440.2590.3300.3840.714
CHCN.L.22650198430.2420.3120.3920.704
NYMN.L.22255206320.2380.3090.3860.696
SEAA.L.22954191450.2320.2880.3850.674
HOUN.L.18947192480.2200.2970.3490.645

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68 comments

  1. Tommy2cat

    Well, let’s see… Downgrade you say?

    Subtract: Bay, Torres, Thole, Nickeas, Francisco, Dickey

    Add: Wheeler, d’Arnaud, Shaun Marcum, Andrew Brown, Collin Cowgill, Greg Burke, Brandon Lyon, LaTroy Hawkins, Scott Atchison and a healthy Ike Davis and.Dillon Gee..

    I don’t see a “Downgrade”, Homes.

    1. TRS86

      I think he was specifically referring to the OF. Which the only real issue is can someone replace or can they collectively replace Hairston’s power numbers vs. LH.

    2. SaltyGary

      Even though this post is just about the outfield, lets breakdown the names you threw out.

      Gone:
      Bay, Torres, Thole, Nickeas, – Crap/not ready for prime time

      Francisco – very serviceable when healthy

      Dickey – the friggen mane

      Added:
      Wheeler, d’Arnaud: Not Ready for prime time

      Shaun Marcum – very serviceable when healthy

      Andrew Brown, Collin Cowgill Greg Burke – Crap

      LaTroy Hawkins, Scott Atchison – friggen dinosaurs

      Brandon Lyon – OK

      healthy Ike Davis and.Dillon Gee: you got this for the most part last year to me you don’t mention then it’s a wash. There are always injuries and you have to deal with them.

      So to me you lost the man, got someone that is OK and a bunch more crap to replace the old crap. For THIS year, big downgrade. Hopefully the rookies will be everything we ever dreamed of but it is foolish not to think it is still going to be more time if any to see results.

    3. kingman 26

      That’s interesting Tommy–which OF spots will Wheeler and Marcum be playing?

      1. Prismo

        Wheeler hit .350 as a DH his senior year of high school. He might be better than Duda in LF.

        1. kingman 26

          Hey, I am pretty sure d’Oorknob and Securitygaard played OF in Toronto spring trainings, so eventually we might have an OF made up of our top three prospects!

          1. gategem

            Didn’t Davey Johnson move his pitcher to the outfield while he brought in a new pitcher and then after a batter or two move him back to the mound?

          2. Prismo

            Mr. Gategem, may I ask what your new avatar is out of curiosity? My glasses aren’t thick enough to make it out. ;)

          3. kingman 26

            He had Orosco and McDowell go back and forth from the OF to pitch-I vividly remember that game-from Mets.com:

            As he watched the 10th-inning shuttling of relievers to and from the outfield on Thursday night from the Atlanta dugout at Turner Field, former Mets reliever and current Braves pitching coach Roger McDowell must have thought he was going back in time, specifically to July 22, 1986.

            On that fateful July night, the Mets’ roster was stretched to the breaking point in the 10th inning after third baseman Ray Knight was ejected following a brawl with Eric Davis of the Reds. Catcher Gary Carter took over at third base and McDowell and Jesse Orosco alternated in the outfield, with center fielder Lenny Dykstra covering them after right fielder Kevin Mitchell was ejected.

            “It was depending on the hitter’s strength and where he was most likely to put the ball in play,” McDowell remembered. “So if it was a right-hander pull guy I’d go to right field and vice versa for Jesse. It was Davey Johnson playing the odds and, again, it was a situation where he had a limited bench and he hoped Jesse and I were capable of playing the outfield.”

            The gamble paid off as McDowell and Orosco combined for four innings of shutout ball, allowing only four hits, as the Mets, who were down 3-1, with two out and nobody on in the ninth before then-Red and future Met John Franco blew the save, rallied for three in the 14th (one of them scored by Orosco, who drew a walk) to win, 6-3.

            “I didn’t know you could do that,” said then-first baseman Keith Hernandez, whose two-out fly ball to right in the ninth was dropped by Dave Parker, allowing the tying runs to score. “I thought it was a great idea. I’d never seen it before.”

            McDowell, who would later play the outfield in similar fashion for the Dodgers, had only one regret, that he didn’t get a ball.

            “I would have been excited,” he recalled with a smile. “I know Jesse got one, because I remember the pitch to Tony Perez. It was a sinker, down and in, that Tony lined to Jesse in right field. Max Venable actually hit a ball to left-center when Jesse was pitching and I moved over to make the catch and Lenny came in front of me and caught it. That was my closest call to making a catch in the outfield.”

          4. gategem

            One of my favorite mood music albums and a top selling album in 1955 was titled “Lonesome Echo.” The album cover is an original by Salvador Dali. That’s what you see here.

            BTW the album concept was devised by and the orchestra leader is Jackie Gleason who in addition to being an outstanding comedian and actor wrote music and had his own orchestra. The orchestra in this album is comprised of mandolins, ‘cellos, and domras(richer deeper mandolin), augmented by guitars and marimba. Featured throughout the album is the oboe d’amour. I can’t tell you how many times this album has been a prelude to sex. It has that effect on women.

          5. gategem

            Thank you Kong. BTW is that the game where Knight “cold cocked” Davis?

          6. kingman 26

            It had to be Gate.

          7. Michael Geus

            Yes, that is the game where Knight fought Davis. Gary Carter ended up at third that night as well as the Orosco/McDowell shuffling.

  2. srt

    I’m thinking – minimum – we’ll see a bit of an upgrade.

    No matter how many guys play LF (if Duda doesn’t pan out at the plate), it can’t be any worse than the non production we got out of Bay when he played last season.

    No matter who platoons in CF, I’m hoping the production is better than what we saw out of Torres.

    If the starting OFs come opening day really tank, at least we’ve got some depth. We can switch out one for another and hopefully get an uptick in production.

  3. SaltyGary

    Sandy sounded very sad in his interview. He also admitted that he took his eye off Haiston to focus on other pieces that as a result that’s how they lost out on him. If they were able to get Bourn and had Hairston, this team would be in much better shape. It’s going to be a brutal year.

    1. Stick

      hairston was going to have little to no impact this year anyway. Quite likely at 33 he was not going to repeat his career year, which outside of a couple bunches of HRs was nothing to write home about.

      IMO putting him in RF instead of even baxter/brown was going to do nothing of note for the team.

      1. SaltyGary

        I wouldn’t do that Hairtson is a true 4th. But if you had those two guys together, the team would be way more competitive.

      2. SaltyGary

        HAve to have both IMO, Hairston as the lone OF pickup doesn’t matter.

    2. gategem

      I find it perplexing that Sandy admitted to this. Is multitasking and delegation too complex for Sandy and his cohorts? I always thought that lawyers could chew gum and walk at the same time.

    3. kingman 26

      2/5 for Hairston is a colossal waste.

      He stinks.

      Does nothing well except hit for decent power. Is mediocre to horrible at everything else.

      I wonder why he wound up with a horrible team with perhaps an even more proud tradition of overpaying players than the Mets?

      1. srt

        I’m happy as well that we didn’t resign Hairston.
        I’m leery of him repeating what he did last season – and even with that he’s still just a platoon type OF.

        He wasn’t going to be the difference maker so what better time then to play the young’uns and see what we’ve got with them.

        Now…if they had signed and/or traded for a real starting OF of much better ilk, then I wouldn’t have minded Hairston signed as a threat off the bench and 4th OF.

      2. gategem

        I expect Theo to change the culture on the North side ballclub. So they may not be down for long.

    4. darknova306

      Losing out on Hairston isn’t a bad thing. He’s not good. If someone is sad over Hairston signing elsewhere, that’s really sad.

      1. gategem

        When you’ve rooted for a team that has been a losing franchise for the majority of their existence chopped chicken liver with eggs, onions and apples appears to be pâté de foie gras.

  4. oleosmirf

    The beauty of platoons are you essentially merge the the split stats of the two players to become one.

    So yes, our CF and RF individually look horrible on paper, but their splits last season shows some promise of success.

    Kirk vs. RHP : 271/.324/.416/.740 (241 PA)
    Baxter vs. RHP: .288/.386/.450/.836 (189 PA)
    Valdespin vs. RHP (244/.292/.444/.736 (174 PA)
    Brown vs. LHP .275/.375/.400/.775 (48 PA)
    Byrd vs. LHP .327/.353/.408/.761 (51 PA)
    Jamie Hoffmann vs. LHP .279/.382/.481/.863 (104 MILB AB)

    None of these guys can hit at all against the other side, but in platoons there is evidence of a decent OF here

    1. SaltyGary

      Thanks for this it’s like looking at a double-rainbow now.

    2. TX

      While in theory, you are correct, it’s impossible to run a team with 3 platoon spots. We really need to see Duda become an everyday player or there will constantly be a hole in the lineup.

      1. oleosmirf

        I fully expect Duda to have a good enough season to lock down LF.

        .260/340 20-25 HR will be good enough to go into 2014 comfortable with him as our everyday LF and #6 hitter.

        1. TX

          from your fingers on the keyboard to God’s ears.

      2. Stick

        Tex, I think you are missing a key point (that often gets overlooked in the OF debate).

        every team has players (that are regulars/starters/every game guys) that suck vs. the opposite handed pitcher. And usually guys that rake.

        but, they are still the overall best option, so they play every day.

        so what you count on is when a lefty SP goes, the RH batters do the damage, and some lefties (say, Ike or ryan Howard) just play the field and try to stay out of the way at bat!

        you just aren’t going to field a tema of guys that rake every SP. If you have a couple, you will score a ton of runs. But the rest of the lineup will be guys with some level of splits.

        so the question is, do you want the spitters to play every game, or to platoon them?

        1. TX

          I understand that some rake vs. LHP or RHP, but generally, the ones that play every day may rake vs. RHP, they don’t hit 1/2 the mendoza line vs. LHP. I exaggerate a tad, but it’s more just for emphasis.

          1. Stick

            You mean like Ike? You know your splits are drastic when the manager platoons another guy with you that hits from the same side!

            but yeah, hopefully the off-side guys are at least occasionally productive.

          2. TX

            Ike at least plays stellar D. Duda… not so much.

    3. TRS86

      If they manage platoons correctly they can get decent production out of the OF. I am very intrigued by Cowgill and Brown.

      1. Stick

        Like I have said before, if you don’t have a young prospect stud (or expected solid everyday guy!) you are breaking in, or an established everyday player/stud, I would rather see a well designed platoon instead of forcing a guy that has a known name out there every day, just to say you have a regular.

        that goes for a guy like Hairston for sure.

        1. oleosmirf

          agree 100% but the platoon needs to be managed properly because when any of those guys (other Duda) have to face someone on the same side of the rubber, they are almost an automatic act.

          They HAVE to go north with a 2nd RH hitting OF and Justin Turner cannot be the solution. Whether its Byrd, Brown, Hoffman or even Lutz, they need someone to start in favor of Valdespin, Kirk or Baxter when a LHP is on the mound

          1. srt

            I agree with this.
            I’m curious to see how Lutz does in the OF during ST.
            His MiL numbers look so much better than Turner’s ML stats. How that will translate to the MLs though, is anyone’s guess.

        2. Stick

          oh, I agree about needing the 2 RH OFs. that is why I said that Brown might be one of the biggest locks for the team. he is the only RH power hitting OF they have.

          IMO him and cowpie are pencilled in, barring a horrific spring, in which case hoffman could sneak in and steal Brown’s job.

          Lutz, if he makes it, will be at the expense of turner.

      2. gategem

        I assume you’re intrigued with them because you’ve never seen them play. When they play on even a semi-regular basis you may see the warts that caused them to be available. But with a nod towards Alexander Pope, “Hope Springs Eternal.”

        When Casey Stengel managed the Yankees he would employ a platoon in both left field and right field. Of course his center fielder was at first Joe DiMaggio and later Mickey Mantle. Also the players he would platoon were quality players that would have been regulars on other teams.

  5. TRS86

    Salty I had to show you this in case you didn’t see it. LOL.

    “Salty who belonged to the desert actually became a CORE jedi because he went against you and your sandy beliefs”

    Use the Core Salty, use the Core.

    Alex: Salty…. I am your faaaaaaather.

    You know I am just busting your chops so don’t get into any frenzy over this.

    1. srt

      Sorry, but the funniest line of the day so far is my being accused of NOT believing that SA was brought here in as GM as part of a package deal between Selig and the Wilpons.

      I only stated that so many times that I’ll bet you all got sick of reading it.

    2. SaltyGary

      Oy Ve…

      1. Stick

        I told you man, and you shot the messanger, but you don’t volunteer for the Core, you get conscripted.

        and when Alex adopts you, you may want to consider getting some pea soup and calling the Exorsist.

        1. SaltyGary

          I feel like I need one of those showers they give people after radiation exposure.

          Look I will always be glad I am referred to as a Jedi, but the core are a bunch of Sith’s running around.

      2. TRS86

        Lets see.
        You have Alex as Aniken converted and trained by Bay (Darth Sidious) in alliance with Maniac (Jabba the Hut) and now looking to convert the young Salty.

        So you just need to listen to Yoda (me) and Samuel Jackson (Kingman) and your sister (SRT).

        Guys feel free to add yourself into this incredible comedy.

        1. SaltyGary

          Actually Alex should be Count Dooku and I am Aniken. You seem like a Qui Gon Jin to me.

          1. TRS86

            True, I guess you could use that reference. Only problem is I had already locked Alex into Darth by having him be your evil father. LOL.

            OK back to the Mets.

        2. Stick

          whats left for me, Jar Jar binks? And frankly, other than the princess (unless that is Salty’s sister) that is the only other star wars character I can think of!

          1. TRS86

            Great Stick, you are the one character that almost brought down the entire franchise. LOL.

            Stick I see you more of a Han Solo.

          2. TX

            Boba Fet? Han Solo? Chewy?

          3. Stick

            I’ll take Han Solo. he seems like a sarcastic enough guy.

            rusty can be Chewy.

          4. TRS86

            TX, Chewy could be perfect for you. Don’t want to leave you out.

          5. TRS86

            Well dang, down to the Fets and Jar Jar for you TX.

          6. TRS86

            OK last one. We could use Grave as ObiWan, being that he dies half way through the trilogy.

          7. TX

            I’d rather the Rancor than Jar Jar!!! yikes.

            I could be Lando, but I lack the wonderous hair or and advertisement contract for Colt .45.

            :.-( Grave!!!!

        3. srt

          O.K…..gonna have to confess….are we talking about Stars Wars here? If yes, I’ve never seen even one of the movies. Not the originals in the 70s, not the remakes of a few years ago.

          If this isn’t Star Wars, I have no clue who these characters are from.

          1. Stick

            that was all star wars. I did see most of them at one time, but still don’t know who 1/2 the characters being named are!

          2. TRS86

            Dang you fogie. LOL.

          3. srt

            LOL…I suspect I might be the only one in the US to have never seen at least one of those movies.

    3. kingman 26

      I just am astonished that you bring that idiotic sh*t here.

      Unreal.

  6. Stick

    to answer the question, no, the OF will not be worse, and in fact, odds are it will be better. For a couple of reasons.

    1 is, bay and Torres are gone, and IMO people are seriously underestimating the damage those 2 did, dragging the unit and team down. They also got something like 33-40% of all the OF ABs last year.

    The other reason is, all of the guys in the 5 man “rotation” right now (6 if you want to include Spin) are all primed for a step forward. They are all now in that prime 25-28 age range where players, especially non-superstars, are likely to have their best, most productive years. In theory.

    They also now all have some ML experience. So no guys coming fresh out of the minors into the Show. Duda is the “old man” heare with about 850 ABs or so. But, the rest got enough of a taste to get their feet wet, and hopefully over the initial adjustment period.

    so, based on all this, they may not become big-head Bonds, but they all very realistically can improve on what they did last year. And managed correctly (I know, major stretch with Terry in charge, but he does love platoons!), they should absolutely be able to outperform the crap from last year.

    basically they “traded” 3 older guys, 2 of which were seriously past their expiration dates, and the other that had a career HR year at age 32(?) but a .299 OBP and decaying defense for 3 younger players just getting established. Offense will be better overall (as many HRs, more speed/balance) and defense will be improved too.

    Not saying at all that they will be one of the top OF units in MLb, but they will be a step up from last year, which was the question posed.

    1. darknova306

      As cynical as I am, I have to agree that the outfield as a whole should be somewhat better than last year. Some of these guys will make up for Hairston’s power being gone, there’ll be a good mix of speed, and the defense should be pretty respectable (especially if Duda is used in a straight platoon, as he should cause he sucks). And dumping Bay and Torres immediately makes them better.

      It’ll be a step up, even if a minor one.

  7. Mr North Jersey

    By the way here is where the 2012 Mets catchers ranked in MLB in the same batting categories I ranked the outfield:

    25th – BA
    27th – OBP
    30th – SLG
    30th – OPS
    30th – RUN
    29th – RBI
    30th – HR

    The SB is weird because it lists them 2nd with 10 but yet when you look at each individual catcher all are listed with 0 stolen bases.

    1. TX

      If a catcher singles and then is replaced by a pinch runner, who subsequently steals 2B, 3B and Home, does the Catcher position get credit for those 3 SBs?

  8. wanny

    I was about to say “who needs an outfield?” and then compare this group to the 2000 no name and misfit outfield.

    But I was surprised to see how well those guys performed:

    Agbayani – .289 .391 .477
    Payton — .291 .331 .447
    Bell — .266 .348 .425

    I’d take those numbers from our current outfielders in a heart beat!!!!!

    (credit has to be due to Bobby V. for getting so much out of the 2000 motley crew.)

    1. Mr North Jersey

      Now that you bring up that 2000 outfield here is where they ranked in the same batting categories:
      24th – BA
      18th – OBP
      28th – SLG
      26th – OPS
      23rd – SB
      22nd – RUN
      28th – RBI
      26th – HR

      1. wanny

        wow. the numbers looked pretty good individually but I guess I forgot the context of the era and the numbers others were putting up.

        also, the team numbers also include the terrible contribution from rickey henderson and weakness of daryl hamilton, etc.

        1. kingman 26

          Those #s surprised me too…I thought they would be much closer to middle of the pack.

          Still, I would take them for 2013!

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