The first lady of RDM suggested a thread topic a few days ago, and I thought it could make a nice diversion for a Saturday afternoon.
SRT wants to know which player we all think will surprise the most – playing way over and above what’s projected.
Is it Duda, Hitting 40 HRs and sticking as the starting LF from start to finish?
You get the picture. Who do we all think will be head and shoulders better than their career norm or will finally establish himself as a keeper?
51 comments
Marc
2/16/2013-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t know about Duda and 40 homers. 20-25 with 80 rbis and I’ll be thrilled. Two guys that will fully establish themselves this year are Jon Niese and Ike Davis.
Niese – 16-8 3.25 ERA
Davis – 35 105 .275
kingman 26
2/16/2013-12:13pm at 12:13 pm (UTC -4)
Oops…moved…
Mark
2/16/2013-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
I think Mets have to hope that Jordanny Valdespin breaks out in Right Field and Lucas Duda breaks out in Left or it is going to be a long year. For all of his detractors, Valdespin is only legitimate major league starter even competing for Right Field. If Marlon Byrd wins Right might as well right off season.
kingman 26
2/16/2013-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
“Valdespin is only legitimate major league starter even competing for Right Field”
Hmmmm, really? In/at which league/season/position/universe exactly is he a legitimate MLB starter?
Mark
2/16/2013-12:50pm at 12:50 pm (UTC -4)
He is only person that has legitimate major league starter potential. Has some power and speed and has done a pretty good job increasing his walk rate in winter ball. He is best option to leadoff for Mets. Just my opinion. I hope the Mets have a lot of break out candidates. Murphy has been working to keep his front leg straight to add power so hoping he makes big step forward with his offense. Davis and Duda will both hopefully have monster years. The entire starting rotation are either comeback or break out candidates. Bobby Parnell hopefully will take closer role. Harvey, Wheeler, D’Arnaud let’s hope the entire team is a break out candidate.
stickguy
2/16/2013-1:48pm at 1:48 pm (UTC -4)
big difference between potential, and track record though.
kingman 26
2/16/2013-12:21pm at 12:21 pm (UTC -4)
Parnell is the clear choice here to finally harness his skills and become the homegrown closer the team so desperately needs.
Duda? 2011 was likely his career year. This idea that he is a 40 HR guy is pretty ludicrous.
Harvey might not be eligible as he was so good in 2012 already.
Not too many other legit candidates really.
srt
2/16/2013-1:08pm at 1:08 pm (UTC -4)
I immediately thought of Harvey as well – and passed over him for the same reason you did.
I’m hoping he’s more likely to just pick off where he left off – rather than having an excellent year and labeling it pitching over his head.
Hazmet
2/16/2013-2:48pm at 2:48 pm (UTC -4)
Yes, Duda will hit 11 HR’s have 40 for his career in MLB and fade into oblivion. :p
gategem
2/16/2013-8:59pm at 8:59 pm (UTC -4)
Duda already had his breakout when he broke his wrist.
greggofboken
2/16/2013-12:38pm at 12:38 pm (UTC -4)
Collin Cowgill. 82% stolen base ratio in the minors. 1.0 cumulative defensive WAR in a short period of ML experience (74 games). I don’t expect anything outlandish from him. But I think he could be solid and am glad he’s getting a shot.
gategem
2/16/2013-9:02pm at 9:02 pm (UTC -4)
Hopefully he’s not the 2013 version of Don Bosch.
TX
2/16/2013-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
Dark horse I’m going to roll with Edgin
Super Dark Horse – Havens. He starts hitting a ton. Is kept on the 40 man. Murph is ripping it up too but stumbles on 2B turning two and dislocates his Grit Bone and lands on the DL. Havens, batting .545 with an OPS of 1.600 gets the call and he throws DWright, Ike and the rest of the lineup on his back and carries the team to the playoffs.
stickguy
2/16/2013-4:17pm at 4:17 pm (UTC -4)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ub_a2t0ZfTs
TX
2/16/2013-6:13pm at 6:13 pm (UTC -4)
My only question is this. Does alcohol equal bacon and if so, can I get some alcohol to go along with my brain and drugs? Maybe nicotine could be cheese? I’d like brain, alcohol and nicotine on a round roll with SPK? Actually, no salt, no ketchup needed.
stickguy
2/16/2013-6:14pm at 6:14 pm (UTC -4)
Hmmm, Bacon.
gategem
2/16/2013-9:05pm at 9:05 pm (UTC -4)
Somehow I always thought you preferred ham over bacon.
srt
2/16/2013-1:06pm at 1:06 pm (UTC -4)
Following TX’s lead here:
Dark Horse: I’m going to go with Familia for the BP.
Runner up – catching lightning in a bottle with Cowgill
Super Dark Horse: I like Havens as well. If he stays healthy, he might very well be our next 2nd baseman.
Trs86
2/16/2013-2:09pm at 2:09 pm (UTC -4)
Man someone stole my Edgin. I am going to go with Marcum having a good rebound year and the combo of Cowgill and Brown.
Connor O'Brien
2/16/2013-2:20pm at 2:20 pm (UTC -4)
I’m going with Andrew Brown. He put up exceptional minor league numbers, but no one has paid attention to him at all.
Hazmet
2/16/2013-3:10pm at 3:10 pm (UTC -4)
I like the Brown and Cowgil dark horse pickups so maybe one of them. But, I’m going to go in a different direction:
The Mets will acquire Jose Reyes as part of a trade involving Jon Niese. Jose will pout about playing on the horrible turf and be an in and out starter that the Jays will look to move for pitching as Josh Johnson goes down mid season. Since Jose will be viewed as damaged goods the Mets will also bring back Gose as part of the deal for a young lefty the Blue Jays can control for a number of years. The Mets will then plug Syndegaard into Nieses spot after the young flamethrower starts in AA and dominates and moves quickly through milb ranks.
I obviously have too much time on my hands today.
stickguy
2/16/2013-4:18pm at 4:18 pm (UTC -4)
see what I posted for Tex.
stickguy
2/16/2013-4:25pm at 4:25 pm (UTC -4)
Most of the good ones have been touched on. I forgot to post Terry’s guy though (Byrd).
My guy, if I have to pick one, is Andrew Brown. The forgotten man, who I expect will easily replace Hairston.
Other fine choices are cowpie and Edgin. I love the Havens idea too.
How about 1 more instead of Havens: Flores coming up to take over 2B?
And honorable mention for Duda, since if I don’t support him after all we went through together, who will?
srt
2/16/2013-9:20pm at 9:20 pm (UTC -4)
On that Duda note….
Was telling my Dad about this. He does not now nor ever will, use a PC.
He said put him down for Duda for the player that far exceeds expectations.
He likes Marlon Byrd for come back player for the Mets.
Regarding the BP arms, he really likes Josh Edgin and predicts he’ll firmly entrench himself as a top reliable arm in the BP.
stickguy
2/16/2013-9:54pm at 9:54 pm (UTC -4)
your dad seems like an intelligent guy.
hiro22453
2/16/2013-6:50pm at 6:50 pm (UTC -4)
Dillon Gee will prove that he is an average major league starting pitcher.
In the minors Aderlin and Matz will skyrocket the prospect rankings.
Unfortunately Niese’s numbers will be okay but it becomes clear that the Mets should have sold high (he will compare poorly to Justin Upton).
Now my crystal ball is empty.
TX
2/16/2013-7:12pm at 7:12 pm (UTC -4)
I wish your crystal ball painted with more cheery colors.
hiro22453
2/16/2013-7:50pm at 7:50 pm (UTC -4)
Just to be clear: I consider a solid “average MLB starter” a very good thing. So seriously Gee is my break-out candidate.
More people will know the name Jake deGrom next year this time. But that’s the minors again.
greggofboken
2/16/2013-9:12pm at 9:12 pm (UTC -4)
I took your meaniing about Gee. He was a pleasant surprise last year. Given a rather ordinary, undistinguished arsenal, I thought he’d be lit up last year after everyone had a chance to see him a bit. I forget who it was who referred to him as “perhaps the league’s best #5 starter”, but I understood the sentiment. I’m finding it hard to believe he’ll get much better than he’s already been….but if he maintains, he’s already better than I would have anticipated.
TX
2/16/2013-9:12pm at 9:12 pm (UTC -4)
I hear you. I honestly think he’s there, so, while a good thing, it is not much of a jump for Gee.
And I’d love to see DeGrom surprise us all. I actually think Leatherman/Leatherface/Leathery completion will be an extremely fast riser as well.
stickguy
2/16/2013-9:46pm at 9:46 pm (UTC -4)
they could all rise quick, but I would be pretty surprised if any of them arrived in 2013.
stickguy
2/16/2013-7:37pm at 7:37 pm (UTC -4)
I checked my Quija board, and the only match thankfully was Matz having a big year and shooting up the prospect ladder. Which I think is going to happen, because if his arm holds up, he has great lefty stuff.
wanny
2/16/2013-7:41pm at 7:41 pm (UTC -4)
Last year I picked Tejada — this year I predict a major step forward for him again. I’m thinking 300/375/390 or thereabout.
This team has quite a few candidates. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see any of Cowgill, Murphy, Ike, Harvey or Duda establish themselves as solid regulars (or better in Harvey’s case).
wanny
2/16/2013-8:42pm at 8:42 pm (UTC -4)
Would be nice if the Mets had a John Tavares somewhere in their pipeline.
TX
2/17/2013-12:00am at 12:00 am (UTC -4)
Can’t we at least chat about Kovy or Zajac?
TX
2/16/2013-9:09pm at 9:09 pm (UTC -4)
So, to keep the hierarchy of fish in order, let me know if the below needs adjusting.
Trout > Salmon > Bass > Carp.
I feel like there is a fish named pitcher I am missing, but thus far, this seems to be the baseball fish list.
wanny
2/16/2013-9:55pm at 9:55 pm (UTC -4)
Brian Fisher, Bill Fischer, Eddie Fisher, Tim Crabtree, Bud Black(fish), Frank White(fish) and Saul Gefilte?
TX
2/16/2013-10:00pm at 10:00 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks meng. Could argue crabs don’t fit the bill, but we can roll with any oceanic reference here. Billy ocean singing the theme song as this list is announced?
TX
2/16/2013-10:05pm at 10:05 pm (UTC -4)
And just for your giggles sake, I saw gefilte, and actually baseball-referenced it to make sure that was not right. Heh. +1
wanny
2/17/2013-8:59am at 8:59 am (UTC -4)
catfish hunter!
Stick
2/17/2013-9:37am at 9:37 am (UTC -4)
talk about everyone missing the obvious answer.
stickguy
2/16/2013-9:56pm at 9:56 pm (UTC -4)
Stuart Marlin, Robert Fish, Chester Guppy, George haddock, Jesse Pike, Art Herring, Bobby Sturgeon.
TX
2/16/2013-9:58pm at 9:58 pm (UTC -4)
Ok, now put that in order of best to worst.
stickguy
2/16/2013-10:24pm at 10:24 pm (UTC -4)
as far as I am concerned, it is. Mostly because I never heard of any of them before tonight.
greggofboken
2/16/2013-10:00pm at 10:00 pm (UTC -4)
Preacher Roe.
TX
2/16/2013-10:02pm at 10:02 pm (UTC -4)
Nice!
gategem
2/16/2013-11:50pm at 11:50 pm (UTC -4)
I saw Preacher Roe pitch when he was with the Brooklyn Dodgers.
gategem
2/16/2013-9:26pm at 9:26 pm (UTC -4)
As always there will be some that have seasons better than their statistical mean while others will fall below that. Who they will be I can’t really say. However, I look at a breakout season as a player establishing himself for many years with this being the first of many years of excellent consistency. If I had to make a guess I would say it will be Wheeler or Travis d’Arnaud.
BTW Cowflop and Brown will someday make a good law firm.
gategem
2/16/2013-9:30pm at 9:30 pm (UTC -4)
This from NJ.com:
“Jordany Valdespin spent his offseason in the Dominican winter league honing his skills in rightfield, but Terry Collins said he would like to use Valdespin in the infield in the spring.”
Seems like Terry has already made up his mind on the young man. I believe that someday Spin will be a good major league player but not with the Mets.
stickguy
2/16/2013-9:52pm at 9:52 pm (UTC -4)
that seems odd, since last year they wrote him off as an IF, and would only use him in the OF, where he played all winter. And frankly, given his speed and what he showed with the glove last year, he is probably best suited to be out there.
Of course, terry talks quite often without seeming to have his mouth connected to his brain.
Johan4Cy
2/18/2013-1:32pm at 1:32 pm (UTC -4)
Breakout? I wouldn’t say any, most likely.
I believe Niese has already shown what his potential is as a solid, but not great, starter.
Davis has shown what he’s capable of as well. I can see him duplicating last year, but with higher BA.
I don’t have the faith in Duda.
I don’t think Wheeler is going to have the chance.
My best guess for a breakout year is Matt Harvey. Watch out for that.