Despite being linked to him numerous times throughout the offseason, it is “really, really unlikely” that the Mets sign Jose Valverde, a team source told Adam Rubin of ESPN New York. It is possible that the Mets may need one more piece for the back end of the bullpen, but their hesitation with Valverde makes complete sense.
Valverde, 34, is coming off a down year by his standards. He saved 35 games for the Tigers last season, but collapsed down the stretch and in the postseason. He gave up nine runs in just 2.2 innings in the playoffs after posting a 5.02 ERA in September. Some fans might say that it was just a bad stretch, and that every good pitcher has a down year every once in a while. However, there are some subtle signs that Valverde isn’t anything near what he used to be, and is no longer good enough to be a full-time close.
Valverde has never had excellent command, walking 3.8 batters per nine innings throughout his career. He has had to make up for that with dominating stuff, as many closers do. And from 2004 through 2007, he had a 11.5 K/9 rate in 260 innings pitched. Since 2007, however, he has seen a steady decline in his strikeout rates. At one point, it may have been due to simple luck, but it became a disturbing trend and now, it’s at the point where you just can’t ignore it. In 2006 with Arizona, Valverde struck out 12.5 batters per nine, or 30.9%. The next year, in his age 30 season, it hit 29.4. In 2008, it continued to fall to 27.4%. That percentage fell and fell, until it hit a career-low of 16.3%. Basically, he is striking out just half the batters that he used to.
Looking even deeper into the numbers, you can see that Valverde is getting hit much more frequently as well. In 2007, hitters made contact with 69.3% of his pitches. That steadily rose as well until last year, when it hit 84.1%. He doesn’t have the swing-and-miss stuff anymore, despite what some of his recent save totals might tell you.
While it may seem like a closer coming of a 35-save season is a no-brainer at first glance for a few million, there is real risk involved with Valverde, especially on a major league contract.
57 comments
srt
2/18/2013-8:52am at 8:52 am (UTC -4)
I looked at his 2011 stats and they seemed deceptive to me. Looks like you came to the same conclusion – going back a few more years. I watched him in post season last Oct. Something is definitely not right with him. His delivery is a bit different – which sometimes means a pitcher is compensating for pain or an injury. Either that or he’s just lost it and may never get it back.
I say pass on Valverde. We’ve got some depth in the BP – for a change – and more than one closer candidate even with FF who likely lands on the DL. I say we roll with what we’ve got right now.
Stickguy
2/18/2013-9:04am at 9:04 am (UTC -4)
at his age, really does seem that he is just wearing out, with or without a specific injury. Teams must agree, otherwise he would be someplace by now.
still, always a chance he can fake his way through 1 more year on guile and experience, so some team might get lucky on a cheap pick-up.
TX
2/18/2013-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
Sign Wilson!!!
Stick
2/18/2013-12:28pm at 12:28 pm (UTC -4)
sounds good to me!
TX
2/18/2013-12:52pm at 12:52 pm (UTC -4)
So… Any other schleps working today?
Stick
2/18/2013-1:13pm at 1:13 pm (UTC -4)
Yup. though when you WFH, every day is pretty much the same!
srt
2/18/2013-2:58pm at 2:58 pm (UTC -4)
LOL….this. Although I do have the holiday off today.
gategem
2/18/2013-7:56pm at 7:56 pm (UTC -4)
In April people associated with the DOD will enjoy their furloughs.
srt
2/18/2013-9:36pm at 9:36 pm (UTC -4)
Plan right now is come mid April, we’ll all be furloughed one day a week through 30 Sep.
I will admit I won’t mind the extra days off….but not looking forward to the 20% cut in pay from then until they end of the FY. Not to mention how royally that screws up my annuity calculations.
Stick
2/18/2013-9:57pm at 9:57 pm (UTC -4)
don’t complain too much. You could work for a cheap corporation with lousy benefits, no pension, and only reinstated a low 401K match this year after suspending it for 3 years. Oh, and suspended bonuses and raise freeze.
Though they do make up for it by having the constant threat of more downsizing hanging over your!
Hazmet
2/18/2013-6:05pm at 6:05 pm (UTC -4)
Murphy back to NY to have the inaugural rib strain injury of 2013 examined.
TX
2/18/2013-6:08pm at 6:08 pm (UTC -4)
And enter the Havens…
gategem
2/18/2013-7:51pm at 7:51 pm (UTC -4)
http://www.syfy.com/haven
Mr North Jersey
2/18/2013-8:09pm at 8:09 pm (UTC -4)
Good show by the way.
Yes I am a tv junkie.
Hazmet
2/18/2013-8:17pm at 8:17 pm (UTC -4)
This Saturday: Wheeler v Strasburg. Must see TV
srt
2/18/2013-9:36pm at 9:36 pm (UTC -4)
Oooh, baseball!
Stick
2/19/2013-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
I assume this is on SNY? Wonder if MLB.tv (I seem to have renewed that again this year, don’t tell my wife I spent the money!) carries any ST games?
I could really use a “fix” since this has been the longest, most tiring off-season that I can remember.
srt
2/18/2013-9:37pm at 9:37 pm (UTC -4)
MLBTR reporting Mets will listen to offers for Turner in ST.
Fine with me.
Stick
2/18/2013-9:58pm at 9:58 pm (UTC -4)
impossible to see a team giving up anything of value for him, but I suppose even an A ball prospect is better than nothing if you have to clear a 40 man spot. Plenty of options to replace him too.
greggofboken
2/18/2013-10:36pm at 10:36 pm (UTC -4)
The speculation was that he’d be moved in order to carry both Quintanilla and Hicks. They have a roster spot jam….but I’d certainly rather have Turner and Quintanilla come north than Hicks. Worst Met acquisition of the off-season if you ask me. It doesn’t sound as though they’re inclined to bring Valdespin up, though I’m sure things are subject to change.
TRS86
2/19/2013-7:54am at 7:54 am (UTC -4)
I am not sure that Rubin was doing anymore than guessing when he said they may want to carry both. This is all about having too many guys on the 40 man roster and needing to make room before losing someone with more talent than Turner.
wanny
2/18/2013-11:20pm at 11:20 pm (UTC -4)
I know the Mets would like some more power on the bench, but I can’t envision a guy with a .238 .325 .436 AAA line — one who is a strikeout machine — making the team out of Spring.
I would bet against Hicks being the backup SS.
Stick
2/18/2013-11:31pm at 11:31 pm (UTC -4)
if they can live with only 1 MI BU, than it could be Lutz for the RH PH/corner IF bat.
will be interesting what happens with the bench spots, IF and OF.
srt
2/19/2013-8:47am at 8:47 am (UTC -4)
I didn’t think Lutz played SS.
For SS backup, I’d rather see Q but I’m not sure what other positions he plays.
Turner – by his own admission – is not comfortable at all at SS.
And I never want to see Valdespin there again. He’s awful there.
Stick
2/19/2013-9:08am at 9:08 am (UTC -4)
oh, of course Lutz can’t play MI. that was my point. Turner can play 2B, and SS in a pinch. So if they did say keep Lutz over Turner, there would only be 1 MIl BU (hicks, Q, some other guy) to cover SS and 2B. Unless Spin is on the team for “emergencies only”, that means if for some reason you had to cover SS and 2B at the same time, Wright is playing SS again.
srt
2/19/2013-9:18am at 9:18 am (UTC -4)
Turner ‘in a pinch’, should only be a game here or there. Don’t think he’s the answer if Ruben hits the DL.
TX
2/19/2013-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
Stick, Valdy can play SS in a pinch. Probably just as well as Turner… Horribly.
The only thing Turner gives is a average at best RH bat off the bench. I don’t think his bat is good enough to cover up his lack of playing D. I’d like to see what Lutz can do in Turner’s spot and who knows, maybe Valdy can make the team, though I have no desire to see him in the INF.
Stick
2/19/2013-9:49am at 9:49 am (UTC -4)
Don’t forget the pies man, the pies.
Terry loves him too. Seems like a “grustle/chemistry over actual production/talent” deal to me!
TX
2/19/2013-9:59am at 9:59 am (UTC -4)
I hate the pie man aspect to his game. And forget Terry. He’s being re-assigned anyway, so the question is, does Wally like him. I don’t see Wally putting up with any pie shenanigans.
TRS86
2/19/2013-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)
V-Spat shouldn’t make the team.
Let Hicks and Q battle it out for middle IF backup and then if you keep Lutz and Brown you have 1B and 3B covered as well.
TRS86
2/19/2013-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)
Speaking of Wally TX. Rubin said that Geren and Tuff are most logical next in lines over Wally.
srt
2/19/2013-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
I’m going on record now saying I don’t think Wally will ever b manager of the NY Mets as long as the Wilpons own the team. He’s not ‘their kind of guy’, IMO.
TRS86
2/19/2013-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
In many ways I hope you are right.
greggofboken
2/19/2013-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
Backman’s not my kind of guy either. If I wanted frothing tantrums, we could have kept Bernazard. If I want a feel-good sense of days gone by, I’ll visit the musuem before taking my seat.
Last place finish. Valdespin shows up w/his head stuck up his rear. Harvey shows up not as reported by Backman (and the pitching coach has to take the fall) — ostensibly because he’s “bored”. Nieuwenhuis and Duda come up with glaring fundamental holes in their game and Duda is allowed to sulk.
What has Wally Backman done to earn a promotion?
Stick
2/19/2013-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
only question I have is about the “not a wilpon type”. And that is because Jeffy was the one that rescued Wally off the scrap heap and brought him back into the organzation, when no other team would touch him.
srt
2/19/2013-11:09am at 11:09 am (UTC -4)
gregg – good points.
stick – I was probably thinking more of Fred than Jeff. I tend to make believe Jeff is not the heir apparent to owner of the NY Mets.
TRS86
2/19/2013-7:56am at 7:56 am (UTC -4)
It was a little better last year.
.244 .350 .506 .856
I have to wonder if his defense perhaps (having to be better than Turner) is better than Q?
gategem
2/19/2013-12:13am at 12:13 am (UTC -4)
Mr. NJ I saw your comment at MMO and wanted to reply to it. However, I refuse to post over there.
“I’ve said this before but if this kid can remain healthy and can deliver on his potential. Watch out.”
The same could be said for a number of prospects on a number of teams. I saw Wheeler pitch on a televised game last season and the talent is definitely there. However, it’s not Dwight Gooden level ability and so Wheeler will have to work hard at refining his craft. Even if Wheeler pitches extremely well in ST I suspect the Mets will return him to AAA and recall him later if for no other reason than the financial benefit the Mets would accrue from it.
Stickguy
2/19/2013-7:51am at 7:51 am (UTC -4)
I agree that there is no chance really they don’t send him down. Just too expensive not to. Plus, he is going to hit the innings limit anyway, and probably much quicker if he breaks camp.
Oh, and posting this here pretty much tells Joe everything he needs to know about the repercussions of letting the lunatics run his asylum. There are a lot of intelligent people that could add value to his comments section, that would not be caught dead there thanks to the nut jobs running roughshod.
TRS86
2/19/2013-7:58am at 7:58 am (UTC -4)
There’s no chance in hell he is breaking camp with the Mets. There would have to be 2 injuries for them to even think about it.
Stick
2/19/2013-8:34am at 8:34 am (UTC -4)
I don’t think there are enough injuries possible. He would be last on the totem pole, and even then, they would probably pick up some end of ST cuts before they used him.
srt
2/19/2013-8:50am at 8:50 am (UTC -4)
Agree with both of you – and not just for the $$ reasons either.
If they wouldn’t bring Harvey up when Gee went down last July – instead opting for Batista and whoever else – they’ll not go to Wheeler until mid season unless they have no choice.
They’ll probably go to Hefner and Mejia and McHugh and maybe even Familia first.
darknova306
2/19/2013-11:09am at 11:09 am (UTC -4)
That’s a good point, they’ve already set the precedent of leaving a top pitching prospect down when there were holes in the rotation. And Harvey was a more polished pitcher when Gee went down than Wheeler will be when they break camp. I don’t see any scenarios where Wheeler is on the opening day roster in Queens.
And Wheeler didn’t exactly dominate AAA during his time there last year. He’s still got some things prove (like better command) before he comes up.
Mr North Jersey
2/19/2013-12:21pm at 12:21 pm (UTC -4)
Yes, I think it goes without saying that the same can be said about other prospects.
I can’t compare Wheeler to a Gooden I just am of the opinion that like I said if the kid can deliver on his potential. Watch out. You and I both know that often times that does not happen hence why I mentioned it in the 1st place.
Mr North Jersey
2/19/2013-12:32pm at 12:32 pm (UTC -4)
I should add that my remark was me expressing a guarded optimism based on exactly what you mentioned.
kingman 26
2/19/2013-3:01pm at 3:01 pm (UTC -4)
Gooden is not fair to compare anyone to—in the minors, the latter part of 1984 and all of 1985 he was among the most dominant pitchers ever, and while he remained good for years, after the post-1985 drug/lifestyle issues, he never again was the 1985 Doc.
Having said that, the clips I have seen of Wheeler are spectacular–his breaking stuff is unreal and he hits 98 without seeming to work up a sweat. As good as Harvey was last year, if Wheeler harnesses his control at the MLB level he surely has a great chance to be better than Harvey and a true number 1.
Seriously, his breaking pitches are insane.
Stick
2/19/2013-4:04pm at 4:04 pm (UTC -4)
I think his last year in the minors he threw 190 IP with 300Ks. Obscene resutls.
also a much different era, since no 18/19 YO would do that today!
gategem
2/19/2013-5:14pm at 5:14 pm (UTC -4)
Stick you’re correct. In 1983 at the age of 18 Doc Gooden recorded 300 SO in 191 IP in class A ball. After the A ball season ended Gooden was brought up to pitch in the IL playoffs and I saw him pitch in a televised game. I could not believe what I saw. He had the best talent I had seen in a right handed pitcher since Bob Feller. He could consistently throw a curve ball that was the proverbial fall off of a table type curve. When at its best Wheeler’s curve is spectacular but Gooden’s was consistently superior and Gooden had command of his pitches. Add to that Goodens movement on his upper 90’s fastball that could exceed 100mph at times and it was no wonder he dominated IL hitters as he done in single A.
kingman 26
2/19/2013-5:42pm at 5:42 pm (UTC -4)
Vividly remember all of that…those were the days when the weekly Sporting News (in their old newspaper-style printing format) each week was the only place for minor league stats. My dad and bro and I would wait for it eagerly each week to check out Doc (as we had with Darryl).
Your description is so right on the money—when I see clips of him in 1984–1985 today, I just cannot believe that curve and that exploding fastball.
But Doc was in a class truly by himself. I cannot imagine Wheeler starting the year in the bigs. We have five rotation guys, and Wheeler will hopefully be ready just about when Johan is ready to take his annual vacation.
Really though, I could see Johan taking it early this year, so he can come back in Sept and throw a few good games and try hard to delude some team into a nice 2014 contract.
Wheeler in June sounds about right.
Who knows, maybe at the deadline we’ll be “buyers!”
Stick
2/19/2013-9:54am at 9:54 am (UTC -4)
Time for a blank canvas…anything controversial going on today?
how about, now that Murphy is out, say the injury festers and he won’t be ready for OD. Who’s the 2B?
come to think of it, there are 2 positions where there may not actually be a #2 man on the depth chart, SS and 2B. 3B and 1B have plenty of replacements, and even the OF has more guys than spots (yes, I realize they all suck, but there is a lot of suckitude to pick from!)
but is there 1 guy at SS or 2B that can even slightly be considered a viable ML option, and not a bad bench/defensive replacement at best type?
TX
2/19/2013-10:03am at 10:03 am (UTC -4)
I’d have to think Havens (if healthy and hitting) gets a look. Same goes for Valdy, though that thought makes me cringe. Possibly Pie Tosser, but I just want the legend of Turner to fade away to Bolivian.
Stick
2/19/2013-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
like I said, no actual ML MIs.
though IMO i would throw the job to Havens and tell him to have fun, and don’t hurt yourself.
TX
2/19/2013-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
don’t you have to end all your sentences to Havens that way? Enjoy the movie, don’t hurt yourself. Good Morning, don’t hurt yourself. Do you want fries with that (don’t hurt yourself)?
kingman 26
2/19/2013-2:56pm at 2:56 pm (UTC -4)
Has to be Valdy over Havens at this point.
But Murph’s unequaled grit surely will lead him to set the record for healing time.
Stick
2/19/2013-4:06pm at 4:06 pm (UTC -4)
well, if it did end up happening, I would truly make this an open competition. Just let them all fight it out and try to win the job.
havens and Spin are both on the 40 man already. Not sure about that Hicks guy, who I would rather just went away.
wanny
2/19/2013-4:00pm at 4:00 pm (UTC -4)
BA has Wheeler (11), D’arNaud (23) and Syndergaard (54).
BA likes Wheeler a tad bit less than Keith Law, Travis a little less than that (in fact, they have Olt at 22) but they like Syndergaard much more (even more than they like Aaron Sanchez).
kingman 26
2/19/2013-5:31pm at 5:31 pm (UTC -4)
Aaron Sanchez from the Food Network??
I know Syndergaard makes a mean salsa verde, but that’s great!