Mar 17
I’m tired of writing about the WBC and David Wright.
And I’m sure you are tired as well of reading about them.
So let’s forget who’s playing third and focus on the the middle of the diamond.
Today’s question: Which of the Met pitchers will have the most wins in 2013?
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38 comments
Mike Bee
3/17/2013-9:25am at 9:25 am (UTC -4)
My head tells me Niese, but I’m rooting for Harvey.
Hey batter
3/17/2013-9:29am at 9:29 am (UTC -4)
Jon Niese has the inside track here. Harvey and Hefner lack experience, and Gee and Marcum’s injury problems may derail them.
Paul
3/17/2013-9:29am at 9:29 am (UTC -4)
Whichever one is lucky enough to make 30+ starts and have the Mets score runs for him. So probably Jon Niese or Matt Harvey.
Stickguy
3/17/2013-10:02am at 10:02 am (UTC -4)
Paul is right. Whichever one can stay off the DL has the inside track!
Neise is the safe bet, Harvey the hopeful one.
so I am going with Dylan Gee. In a Trachsel kind of way (not the best pitcher, but he will get all the runs)
Bryan
3/17/2013-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
Niese, possibly Marcum if he stays healthy.
greggofboken
3/17/2013-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
Niese. I’ll go with 12. Were this question asked a month-and-a-half ago, I’d have gone with Santana. Given the spring, I can’t. I do expect this to be a tightly packed group, within a few wins of each other. Harvey could end up with it. The only guy I’d rule out is Gee.
Hazmet
3/17/2013-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
Harvey with 14 but should be Niese.
Niese’s last start before the ASB last year startled me in regards to how little he was able bear down to try to secure what would have been a big win before the break. Instead he folded and the team continued it’s slide. So for my money I think Harvey will have a better mental toughness to secure the most wins. Niese the past few years first has had his conditioning called into question as he faded at the end of one season and showed little in mental toughness last year in what was one of a few a key games. Niese has all the tools to get it done but after 2 failed tests he needs to show me first before I pick him over anyone else. It’s time for him to show he’s now a grown mature professional and show up for 30 starts and focus in the majority of them, anyone can have a bad day, at least show up for the big ones.
kingman 26
3/17/2013-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
I think you are forgetting that last year–unlike the previous 2–Niese finished VERY strong–yes he had that bad game against the Cubs, but after the break he went 6 IP EVERY start and allowed more than 3 runs a total of twice–not once in his last 8 starts.
srt
3/17/2013-12:15pm at 12:15 pm (UTC -4)
I can’t remember the exact number but Niese had something like 20 quality starts out of 30 last season. Finished very strong, as you said.
I think his conditioning to make it through the entire season last year paid off. I also believe Niese would have won more games had our BP not sucked as much as it did.
Hazmet
3/17/2013-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
Not a whole 6 innings? My how times have changed. Looking at the game logs he did go 7 in many which is what I’d expect a starter to do, so that was better than what I thought. But it also showed since the Cub game:
3 ER in 7 IP against the Dodgers – OK
6 ER in 6 IP against the D-back – bleech
4 ER in 6 IP against Miami – meh
3 ER in 7 IP against Houston – OK
3 ER in 6 IP against Philly – meh
3 ER in 6.1 against Miami – meh
So in the second half from the Cub game through the Miami game he was fairly putrid for 1 month of the season that coincided with trying to have a strong second half.
Also, in 4 of his last 6 starts he was done after reaching the mystical 100 pitch count after 6 – not awe inspiring imho. At least it gave us a chance to see plenty of Ramirez and Carson and Co. in the pen.
I’m expecting Jon to have a good season and build on his 13-9 record, but, I’d like to see him get over 200 innings for the first time in his career and not have many of his starts tax the bullpen after 6. If he’s out after 6 in many starts that will cut down on his ability to be the team leader in wins. Until that happens he can just as easily have only 10 wins instead of exceeding 13 and being a team leader.
Stick
3/17/2013-12:28pm at 12:28 pm (UTC -4)
6 is the new 7 in MLB these days. And a lot of it has to do with Terry and a quick hook. Not to mention the team being behind, and needing to PH. Which is really something you need to evaluate. What if he was pitching fine after 6, and in the top of the 7th, down 2-1, his turn came up and they PH?
Hazmet
3/17/2013-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
What stuck with me was that when the team was in a free fall around the ASB Niese was essentially MIA for 1 month of the season. Look at the ER from the Cub game through the Miami game, this put Terry in the position of having to nurse Niese’s confidence back which is why he had to keep pulling him. Get him out after 6 and a positive outing. This discussion was part of the broadcasts in the booth. And I’m being generous giving him an OK against Houston. Remember how absolutely awful Houston was last year and he gave up 3 in 7.
All I’m saying is his second half wasn’t all it was cracked up to be and he’s still got a lot to prove. I’d rather place my money on a pitcher with more heat to lead the team in wins than a pitcher who relies on a great curve ball being on. There’s more margin for error in missing with heat than hanging curve balls if that pitcher is off.
kingman 26
3/17/2013-7:27pm at 7:27 pm (UTC -4)
Well Haz, your points are valid as usual…and I am not saying Niese is an ace—I really hope Harvey becomes our #1 and wins the most games.
I feel that starting in 2014 Niese hopefully is a fine #3 behind Harvey and Wheeler. Maybe #4 eventually behind Syndergaard.
But really, with what we have seen from Met starting pitchers durability-wise over the last 5+ years, going 6+ IP as Niese did so often last year really is valuable for this team.
kingman 26
3/17/2013-11:06am at 11:06 am (UTC -4)
Where’s Ceetar? They ALL will win 15+ as they did last year!
LOL!
Niese has to be the sure bet here.
gategem
3/17/2013-6:30pm at 6:30 pm (UTC -4)
Ceetar now writes at AA. If you Google his name you’ll find that he fits a description used by a head coach (I can’t recall his name – chalk it up to a senior moment) describing a kicker as being like manure in that he was all over the place. Duda for the NL all star game anyone?
kingman 26
3/17/2013-6:58pm at 6:58 pm (UTC -4)
Well, I have spent almost no time there, but the little time I have spent there made me think that that place is full of Ceetars, i.e. people who may indeed be fairly intelligent and do love the Mets, but are way too optimistic and angrily argue with people who might do anything like suggest that Wright’s contract was excessive or that Johan should have worked out more in the offseason.
I apologize to Ceetar’s fans, but the days when he would come here and destroy entire threads with his drivel like “Mariano Rivera is overrated” or “Oliver Perez was treated unfairly by the Mets” and things like that would really bug me.
And he DID argue that all five rotation member would win 15 last year.
SaltyGary
3/17/2013-7:07pm at 7:07 pm (UTC -4)
As one of the resident pessimist’s don’t you wish you were a little more optimistic as he is? I think deep down he knows the reality of the situation but we shouldn’t kill the guy for not being a negative nancy like us.
kingman 26
3/17/2013-7:24pm at 7:24 pm (UTC -4)
I have been very optimistic as often as it is warranted, but the way he would come on here and argue with everyone about one of his utterly wrong opinions just really bugged me.
Being optimistic is one thing, but arguing with Wanny or Fong in a condescending manner about Mariano being overrated or Oliver Perez “just wanting to pitch” has nothing to do with being optimistic and everything to do with just being an ass.
SaltyGary
3/17/2013-7:40pm at 7:40 pm (UTC -4)
“condescending manner”
and we are never guilty of that?
kingman 26
3/17/2013-7:43pm at 7:43 pm (UTC -4)
Well, perhaps we are yes.
But when making utterly ridiculous arguments which EVERYONE else disagrees with?
And which facts, reason, and history disagree with?
No sir.
darknova306
3/17/2013-7:32pm at 7:32 pm (UTC -4)
I remember that thread. Can’t fault the guy for trying to look through rose colored glasses when everyone else talking about the team is mostly on the other side of the spectrum. Everyone winning 15 games last year was technically possible, but nowhere close to a rational/realistic expectation.
Stick
3/17/2013-7:41pm at 7:41 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t remember the details (hey, shoot me for getting old), but I thought it wasn’t a that they would, more like they could (if everything went right).
though I could be wrong of course.
kingman 26
3/17/2013-7:42pm at 7:42 pm (UTC -4)
Well, again, my issue was largely with the MANY times entire threads would become him arguing some ridiculous inarguable point, and everyone disagreeing in some manner–me and Wanny being rude, TRS and SRT being very respectful and polite, some avoiding the issue, and others being somewhere in the middle.
Optimism is one thing, being outright ridiculous is another.
Just how often do five starting pitchers win 15?
The 1986 Mets won 108 games and 4 starters won 15+. The 114-win Yanks had 3 do it. The 1990s Braves did it once with their amazing staffs.
And predicting it for a team coming off three straight rotten years with the rotation they had?
darknova306
3/17/2013-7:51pm at 7:51 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed, those threads got really old really fast. I stopped bothering to participate cause they always quickly devolved into name calling and ridiculous assertions.
HobokenMetsFan
3/17/2013-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
My initial reaction is niese and i think he’ll be up there, but I think this is the year Gee takes that step forward (his last start withstanding….yikes). He’s a smart guy and based on his interviews it seems like something clicked for him right before the injury last year. “Stuff vs. stuff” I give the edge to niese, but his reported need to focus more and Gee’s intelligence on the mound has me bullish on him for the year.
Stick
3/17/2013-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
well, if Neise, harvey and Gee all stay healthy and make 30 starts, then any one of them could win the most games. Will largely depend on who the pen screws over, and which one is the only lucky SP where the offense scores a lot for them.
HobokenMetsFan
3/17/2013-1:39pm at 1:39 pm (UTC -4)
Good points, definitely is just all about the health. Although I will say, between Harvey, niese, and gee, I like the differentiating styles of pitching our rotation sports. Power pitching, lefty with a great hook and a number of other pitches, and a crafty righty with multiple pitches.
darknova306
3/17/2013-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
The answer is obviously my boy Niese! I honestly think Harvey will have some growing pains as he and the rest of the league go through a series of adjustments to each other. He’ll have a good season, but I think Niese, especially after how much he improved his consistency last year, is gonna be great.
srt
3/17/2013-12:13pm at 12:13 pm (UTC -4)
Hard one. All depends on who stays healthy from start to finish.
I’ll go with:
Niese wins the most.
Closely followed by Harvey
Gee 3rd.
Have no idea what Johan will bring this year.
Marcum will win a few games, but it’s possible if he has a good first half, he’ll be trade bait in July.
And I’m sure they’re hoping Johan will be trade bate too.
Hazmet
3/17/2013-12:29pm at 12:29 pm (UTC -4)
Planning for Marcum and Johan and the potential for injury I really wish the Mets would take a look at seeing if they could sign Chien Ming Wang to a minor league deal before the Yanks, Red Sox, or someone does. He’d be a nice low risk high reward insurance policy to have in Vegas. Just don’t let him run the bases.
Stick
3/17/2013-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
My guess, Johan and marcum either miss some time, taking them out of the running, and if they are pitching well and healthy mid-season, both are likely to be traded.
Trs86
3/17/2013-3:25pm at 3:25 pm (UTC -4)
Gee
Stick
3/17/2013-3:29pm at 3:29 pm (UTC -4)
Uh oh., we agreed on this. That has me worried.
darknova306
3/17/2013-3:44pm at 3:44 pm (UTC -4)
Oof, I hope not. If Gee wins the most games on the staff this year, it will likely have been one ugly season for the team.
Stick
3/17/2013-3:48pm at 3:48 pm (UTC -4)
as long as it was because he had a career year, and got all the breaks, so he ended up at 18-8 or so.
not because he managed to scrape up 12 ugly wins, and the rest of the rotation sucked or broke down!
darknova306
3/17/2013-3:56pm at 3:56 pm (UTC -4)
18 wins for Gee would be an absolute miracle. I’ve never seen anything out of him that makes me think he get that high, even if a bunch of things go right.
Stick
3/17/2013-4:25pm at 4:25 pm (UTC -4)
it was just a random number for illustration purposes. make it 15 or whatever you want, but if he stays healthy and is the “lucky” guy this year, he could easily have the most wins while being far from the best SP.
IOW, the anti-Johan who (back when he actually pitched) seemed to have a ridiculously low win total for how well he pitched.
SaltyGary
3/17/2013-7:09pm at 7:09 pm (UTC -4)
I’m gonna say Harvey. I think the team will be so overrun with injuries that Niese will try too hard. I just don’t see day-to-day issues affecting Harvey and he will just plug away.