Brian Joura of fangraphs.com
takes a look at Bengie Molina
who had 20 HR and 80 RBIs in 2009 and what to expect from him in 2010.Among things that will negatively affect Molina's HR and RBI numbers are:
- Molina will bat lower in the order, come to the plate fewer times and see fewer runners on base.
- Molina had huge home road splits. He had a .300 BABIP in home games compared to a .234 mark in road games.
- Molina hits too many fly balls, especially for Citi. Last season he had a 52.5 FB%, by far the highest mark of his career.
- Molina will be a 35 year old catcher.
- Molina won't play in as many games. Only 11 players in history have caught 70 percent of the time and appeared in 132 games or more as a 35-year old.
So, Molina has to hook on with a new team and hope he does not fall too far in the batting order, hope that last year’s BABIP road numbers were a fluke, hope that he can maintain one of the best FB% in the majors and hope he can put up arguably the best season of a 35-year-old catcher in history to match last season’s numbers.
Obviously, this analysis is taken from a fantasy baseball stats point of view, but the implications may become true. Molina will have to defy the odds in order to maintain his 2009 offensive numbers. Molina better call a good game!