I'm continuing with my series of player predictions and statistical projections for the 2012 season. This week features the starting outfield.The projections are based on a secret, scientific, proprietary mathematical formula that I will reveal at the end of the year. After coming up with my own projections, I went back and checked those of FanGraphs. In many cases, we were almost in lockstep. In others, there was a great disparity. At the end of the season, I’ll compare my projections with FanGraphs’, and we’ll see whose projections were closest to reality.Also, in the interest of brevity, I will only include “glamour stats.” Besides, it’s hard to calculate everyone’s xFIP when you have a full-time job.Without further ado...Jason Bay, LF
Currently, Jason Bay is a lock for induction into the Roberto Alomar Wing of the Mets Hall of Fame. He fits the description perfectly: A player who puts up awesome numbers every year until the exact moment he puts on a Mets uniform.He hit only 6 home runs in his first half-season with the Mets (2010) before he attempted to knock down Dodger Stadium’s left field wall with his face. The resulting concussion he suffered kept him out of action until Spring Training 2011.In 2011, he hit 14 home runs in a relatively injury-free season (509 PAs). Not exactly what the Mets had in mind as a return for his $16 million annual salary, however. He showed flashes of his old self in September, compiling a .313/.392/.563 slash, but those numbers are hard to trust, since not every team sends out their best pitcher, or gives their best effort, in the final month of the season.The changed dimensions of Citi Field should help his psyche, but his swing is likely still confused following 2 seasons of constant adjustments.Projection: .268, 17 HR, 71 RBIFanGraphs: .261, 17 HR, 73 RBI
Up next: Andres Torres.