I was reading Ken Davidoff's Baseball Insider this morning in Newsday and I thought I would apply some of the information that he used in discussing Melky "The Melkman" Cabrera to some of our beloved Metsies. Specifically the part about BABiP and Line Drive Percentage. This excerpt is what prompted me to do so:"...a player's BABiP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) should be between 100 and 120 points higher than his line-drive percentage (percentage of balls put into play that are line drives). Anything higher means the player has benefited by some good luck. Anything lower, and the player has been somewhat unlucky."With that paragraph in mind, let's see which Mets have been lucky or unlucky so far this year. Bear in mind this exercise assumes the above ratio of BABiP to LD% is a relevant basis for discussion. If it's not, please direct your anger to Ken Davidoff. Statistics gleaned from baseball-reference.com.
- Omir Santos - BABiP: .266; LD%: 32%. Santos (-54) would appear to be woefully unlucky.
- Brian Schneider - BABiP: .219; LD%: 21%. Schneider (+09) also seems fairly unlucky.
- Luis Castillo - BABiP: .297; LD%: 22%. Castillo (+77) still below the 'accepted' level.
- Alex Cora - BABiP: .322; LD%: 21%. Cora (+112) falls in the 'accepted' range.
- David Wright - BABiP: .458; LD%: 26%. Wright (+198) the first lucky Met so far.
- Carlos Beltran - BABiP: .378; LD%: 20%. Beltran (+178) also getting lucky.
- Ryan Church - BABiP: .313; LD%: 21%. Church (+103) in the accepted range.
What does this tell us? I have no idea. It would seem that we should expect
- Gary Sheffield - BABiP: .273; LD%: 14%. Sheffield (+133) getting a bit lucky.
Church to continue to perform at roughly the level they have been.
Santos, Schneider, Castillo, Murphy and
Tatis we should expect some improvement from.
Wright, Beltran, Sheffield and
Martinez we should expect to drop off.I think there must be more to it than just this, and I think I need a cigarette, and I quit 15 years ago. What do you think?